Athletics Nation - Yoenis Cespedes and Tommy Milone out; Jon Lester, Jonny Gomes and Sam Fuld inAn SB Nation blog for Oakland Athletics fanshttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/47025/an-fave.png2014-08-03T18:30:39-07:00http://www.athleticsnation.com/rss/stream/57203982014-08-03T18:30:39-07:002014-08-03T18:30:39-07:00How much do the A's really lose without Cespedes?
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<img alt="Oh god, now I'm sad." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/YndfI6P2hHdIB9HsAovJ4qh-Mt8=/0x80:4000x2747/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/36456812/453131166.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Oh god, now I'm sad. | Jim Rogash</figcaption>
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<p>"We can’t replace him … but we can recreate him in the aggregate" - A's GM Brad Pitt</p> <p class="p1">When we woke up to the news of the trade on Thursday, I think most people immediately feared for the safety of the A’s offense. This was the top-ranked offense in the major leagues, and its most immediately recognizable star, Home Run Derby champ, and top-ranking eyebrows in the MLB was gone. There were entirely valid reasons to think that this was an experiment that wouldn't go well. The miserable series vs. the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.royalsreview.com/">Kansas City Royals</a> since has reinforced that fear — except for a singles parade in the fifth inning vs. <span>Jason Vargas</span> and an explosive performance by <span>Josh Reddick</span>, the A’s have been mostly kept in check. Was trading Yoenis Cespedes a mistake?</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Let’s define who the hell Cespedes even is as a player: good, but flawed. I don’t think anyone would disagree with that. Yo was hitting .256/.303/.462 on the season, and with a similar performance in 2013 we can pretty much assume that this is who he is. He’s going to slug home runs, but he’s also going to strike out way too much, not draw enough walks, and fail to hit for contact. He’s a mostly neutral defender and baserunner, with an excess of natural talent making up for poor instincts and stupid mistakes in the field. We all love to remember his crazy throws, but we forget about the flubbed catches that led to those plays occurring. </span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">We’ve replaced him with Jonny Gomes and Sam Fuld — both guys who should probably not get many ABs versus right-handers. Fuld is an interesting case, as he’s the most unknown quantity right now. He’s probably the same player as <span>Craig Gentry</span> — a speedy, plus defensive outfielder who should not be facing right handed pitchers on a regular basis. He’s interesting, because his ABs aren’t coming from an easily defined source. He has no clear platoon partner, and no clear path to playing time. </span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">So, what’s the solution to the Fuld playing time issue? I can’t imagine this would be a popular solution, but I propose platooning <span>Coco Crisp</span> with Fuld. Coco’s been incredible this season, but his injury troubles have made his role as an everyday player … well, increasingly sketchy. Meanwhile, Fuld’s quietly been destroying left-handed pitchers, to the tune of a .296/.381/.426 line. His career numbers are not quite as good, but they back up the fact that he hits lefties much better than righties.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"> Meanwhile, Coco Crisp’s been having the opposite problem: .288/.403/.434 vs. righties, .253/.302/.392 vs. lefties.<i> </i>Those are platoon-worthy splits, especially when BoMel’s been on record saying that batting right-handed causes Coco’s neck injury to become aggravated. Coco’s crucial to the offense, but if holding him out of ABs allows him to stay healthy deep into the stretch run, <span>Sam Fuld</span> becomes an invaluable piece. Reddick would also be a clear platoon candidate (with a wRC+ of 18 vs. lefties on the season), but with Coco’s increasingly subpar defense, I’d be partial to keeping Josh in the lineup as much as possible. </span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">I mean, he can't have a wRC+ of 18 vs. lefties forever, right?</span></p>
<p class="p1">Right?</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The lack of Cespedes also opens up new sources of ABs for <span>Stephen Vogt</span> and <span>Derek Norris</span>. I really expect for the A’s to slot the 3-catcher lineup in as the everyday lineup versus right handed pitchers, with Vogt becoming essentially the everyday first baseman. </span>Ray Fosse will be elated.</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"> Here are what the new lineups look like, with their 2014 wRC+ vs. the handed pitching they'll face, and their career stats for context. Let's see if the average wRC+ of the lineup changes significantly. </span></p>
<p class="p1">Note that I'm not going to be using <span>Kyle Blanks's</span> 2014 stats, since he's only gotten about 30 ABs. I'll just be using his career stats.</p>
<table border="0">
<caption>Lineup vs. RHP</caption>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Player</td>
<td>2014 wRC+</td>
<td>Career wRC+</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Coco Crisp, CF</td>
<td>141</td>
<td>103</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
<span>John Jaso</span>, DH</td>
<td>138</td>
<td>129</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
<span>Josh Donaldson</span>, 3B</td>
<td>102</td>
<td>110</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
<span>Brandon Moss</span>, LF</td>
<td>133</td>
<td>122</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Stephen Vogt, 1B</td>
<td>152</td>
<td>106</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Derek Norris, C</td>
<td>123</td>
<td>80</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Josh Reddick, RF</td>
<td>144</td>
<td>102</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
<span>Jed Lowrie</span>, SS</td>
<td>96</td>
<td>97</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
<span>Eric Sogard</span>, 2B</td>
<td>59</td>
<td>74</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p class="p1">2014 Average: 120 wRC+</p>
<p class="p1">Career Average: 102 wRC+</p>
<table border="0">
<caption>Lineup vs. LHP</caption>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Player</td>
<td>2014 wRC+</td>
<td>Career wRC+</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Sam Fuld, CF</td>
<td>124</td>
<td>96</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jed Lowrie, SS</td>
<td>85</td>
<td>117</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Josh Donaldson, 3B</td>
<td>194</td>
<td>166</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Derek Norris, C</td>
<td>196</td>
<td>157</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
<span>Jonny Gomes</span>, LF</td>
<td>133</td>
<td>136</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Brandon Moss, DH</td>
<td>134</td>
<td>100</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Kyle Blanks, 1B</td>
<td>N/A</td>
<td>114</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Josh Reddick, RF</td>
<td>18</td>
<td>88</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
<span>Alberto Callaspo</span>, 2B</td>
<td>42</td>
<td>102</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p class="p1">2014 Average: 115.5 wRC+</p>
<p class="p1">Career Average: 119.5 wRC+</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Let’s compare that with how the offense looked before Thursday’s trades:</span></p>
<table border="0">
<caption>Lineup vs. RHP</caption>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Player</td>
<td>2014 wRC+</td>
<td>Career wRC+</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Coco Crisp, CF</td>
<td>141</td>
<td>103</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>John Jaso, C</td>
<td>138</td>
<td>129</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
<span>Yoenis Cespedes</span>, LF</td>
<td>111</td>
<td>111</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Brandon Moss, DH</td>
<td>133</td>
<td>122</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Josh Donaldson, 3B</td>
<td>102</td>
<td>110</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Stephen Vogt, 1B</td>
<td>152</td>
<td>106</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Josh Reddick, RF</td>
<td>144</td>
<td>102</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jed Lowrie, SS</td>
<td>96</td>
<td>97</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Eric Sogard, 2B</td>
<td>59</td>
<td>74</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p class="p1">2014 Average: 119.5 wRC+</p>
<p class="p1">Career Average: 106 wRC+</p>
<table border="0">
<caption>Lineup vs. LHP</caption>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Player</td>
<td>2014 wRC+</td>
<td>Career wRC+</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Coco Crisp, CF</td>
<td>96</td>
<td>94</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jed Lowrie, SS</td>
<td>85</td>
<td>117</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Yoenis Cespedes, LF</td>
<td>115</td>
<td>132</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Josh Donaldson, 3B</td>
<td>194</td>
<td>166</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Derek Norris, C</td>
<td>196</td>
<td>157</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Brandon Moss, DH</td>
<td>134</td>
<td>100</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Kyle Blanks, 1B</td>
<td>N/A</td>
<td>114</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Josh Reddick, RF</td>
<td>18</td>
<td>88</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Alberto Callaspo, 2B</td>
<td>42</td>
<td>102</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p class="p1">2014 Average: 110.4 wRC+</p>
<p class="p1">Career Average: 118.8 wRC+</p>
<p class="p1">Reshuffle positions and lineups as you want, it doesn’t really matter.</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">So, what does this tell us? Yoenis Cespedes was overrated -- the only lineup where his presence made a significant difference was career numbers vs. RHP, and to have faith in that requires you to think that Stephen Vogt, Josh Reddick, Derek Norris, Brandon Moss, and Coco are all due to regress severely. If you think that, this A's team was probably doomed anyway.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The lineups look even better if you platoon Fuld with Reddick, and that's another likely option for BoMel.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"></span>Man, that 18 wRC+ is ... not, not great. It's a little, uh. Not great.</p>
<p class="p1">Defensively, these lineups are a wash as well: Fuld is a better CF than Coco Crisp is, but Jonny Gomes is a worse left fielder than Cespedes. However, if these lineups allow us to see the obviously superior defensive catcher Derek Norris take the place of John Jaso more often behind the plate, I'll give the defensive edge to the new lineups.</p>
<p class="p1">We all knew Cespedes was overrated. He’s a good player, but the A's are solidly built to contend without him.</p>
<p class="p1">So, that's right: the offense <i>doesn't lose anything with Cespedes out.</i> It's almost kind of uncanny. I'm willing to bet these are the same sorts of numbers that Beane used when making Cespedes expendable, and if an expendable piece can allow Oakland to upgrade from <span>Jesse Chavez</span> to <span>Jon Lester</span> ... dang.</p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s1"></span></p>
https://www.athleticsnation.com/2014/8/3/5965663/how-much-do-the-as-really-lose-with-cespedes-outDuncan Morrow2014-08-02T21:04:58-07:002014-08-02T21:04:58-07:00What will the A's payroll look like in 2015?
<figure>
<img alt=""WE'RE FINALLY GETTING PAID!"" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/TH7ggepmRQ9pNRnUt8xUrn-Kq4A=/0x20:4000x2687/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/36409724/494777697.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>"WE'RE FINALLY GETTING PAID!" | Thearon W. Henderson</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The A's have only $31 million in contract commitments headed into next season. It's time to take a peak into the vault and see what's on tap for the A's financially heading into 2015. </p> <p>The A's opened the 2014 season with the highest payroll in franchise history -- $83.4 million. Over the last few months, they've added more than $8 million to that figure (Samardzija, Hammel, Lester and Gomes), and the $91.4 million bill footed by ownership ranks 19<sup>th</sup> in baseball. This may run counter to what some of us still believe, that the A's are among the poorest teams in baseball. Well, let's shift that perception. Over the last two seasons, the A's have ranked 5<sup>th</sup> and 7<sup>th</sup> in net operating income -- the amount of dollars pocketed by ownership. Things are not only good on the field, the coin purse is swollen too.</p>
<p>While improved attendance and on-field success have certainly played a part in the team's financial well being, the main culprit has been their ability to continue to pinch pennies in the era of unprecedented revenue-sharing. The A's were able to increase their payroll from $60.7 million (2013) to $83.4 million (2014) thanks to a $25 million stipend directly tied to the <a target="_blank" href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-new-national-tv-contracts-and-2014-payrolls/">unfurling of massive national TV deals signed a few years ago</a>. The extra money allowed the A's to go out and sign <span>Scott Kazmir</span> (hooray!) and <span>Jim Johnson</span> (*crickets*<crickets>).</crickets>Teams themselves have also begun negotiating <i>massive</i> contracts with telecom corporations, and some of that revenue will also trickle down to teams like the A's in future seasons (The <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Dodgers</a>, in particular, signed an $8.35 billion deal with Time Warner last January. Perhaps we can say "thank you" to the boys in blue come October. Just a thought.)</p>
<p>On Thursday, the A's unloaded what would have been the team's third-largest contract in <span>Yoenis Cespedes</span> -- owed $10.5 million in 2015 -- and have just $31 million committed to payroll next season. That money pays for Kazmir, Coco Crisp, Eric O'Flaherty, Sean Doolittle, and Nick Punto's option buyout (add $2.5 million more to the total if you want to keep Punto around next year). That's the fifth-lowest committed dollars in baseball, as only the <a href="https://www.bucsdugout.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Pirates</a>, <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Cubs</a>, <a href="https://www.fishstripes.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Marlins</a> and <a href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Astros</a> have less; you may notice that three of those clubs are deep into rebuilding phases. The $31 million figure is misleading, however, as a number of key players -- including Donaldson, Moss, Samardzija, Jaso -- are going to see significant raises this offseason through arbitration.</p>
<h4><b>1<sup>st</sup> Year Arb Guys</b></h4>
<pre><i><span>Eric Sogard</span>, </i><i><span>Fernando Abad</span>,</i><i> <span>Ryan Cook</span>,</i><i> <span>Jarrod Parker</span> and <span>Josh Donaldson</span></i></pre>
<p>Sogard is a replacement-level second baseman, which will likely earn him somewhere in the range of $800K -- <span>Mike Baxter</span> is a fair comp.</p>
<p>The arbitration process <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/how-paying-established-closers-saves-teams-money/" target="_blank">doesn't love non-save bearing relievers</a>. Instead, it overcompensates closers. For example, <span>David Robertson</span>, <span>Luke Gregerson</span>, <span>Tyler Clippard</span> and <span>Sergio Romo</span> -- all elite set-up men at the time -- received $1.6 million during in their first arbitration year, while <span>Steve Cishek</span> and <span>Ernesto Frieri</span> each received $3.8 million. The only difference between them? Saves. (Good thing <span>Sean Doolittle</span> signed a 5-year/ $10.5 million contract in April.) Needless to say, it's unlikely that either Cook or Abad make more than $1.2-1.3 million in spite of how good they've been.</p>
<p>Jarrod Parker is an interesting case because no mid-tier starter on his way back from Tommy John has entered arbitration missing the prior season. <span>Daniel Hudson</span> would have earned that distinction this last offseason, but he was non-tendered and re-signed by the D'Backs to a minor league deal. The recovery rate of two-time Tommy John players like Parker and Hudson is much lower than those undergoing the procedure for the first time. In fact, almost all of those pitchers have ended up in the bullpen. The A's will likely work out an inexpensive deal with Parker given his risk. He's unlikely to make more than $1.5 million.</p>
<p>The largest first-year arbitration-eligible Athletic is Josh Donaldon. Josh is a "Super Two," which means he'll receive four years of arbitration instead of three -- <span>Brandon Moss</span> is the A's other Super Two. Arbitration cases are built on precedent. Assuming Donaldson doesn't completely tank for the rest of the season, he'll have two MVP-candidate campaigns under his belt heading into arbitration. <span>Ryan Howard</span> set the first-year arbitration record in 2007, receiving $10 million one year removed from winning an MVP and hitting 105 home runs and driving in 285 RBI over his first two seasons (the arbitration process is yet to embrace advanced statistics, so Donaldson won't come anywhere near that figure despite his other talents.) Also of note, <span>Buster Posey</span> received $8 million in arbitration after his MVP 2012 season.</p>
<p><span>S</span>tar-level players who don't take home MVP brass are usually awarded between $5-6 million. Let's give Josh the benefit of the doubt and sign him up for $6 million.</p>
<p><b> </b></p>
<h5><i>Projected total: $10-11 million</i></h5>
<p><b> </b></p>
<h4><b>2<sup>nd</sup> Year Arb Guys</b></h4>
<pre><i><span>Jesse Chavez</span>, </i><i><span>Josh Reddick</span>, <span>Craig Gentry</span></i></pre>
<p><i> </i></p>
<p>Before 2014, Chavez had spent most of his career in the bullpen. However, three-quarters of a season in a championship-level rotation and an ERA under 3.50 should net him a salary of $3-4 million.</p>
<p>Reddick is coming off two injury-plagued seasons. His first-year arbitration salary -- $2.7 million -- was aided by the all-star level offensive production and gold-glove defense he played in 2012. His salary next season, more than anyone else, depends on how well he finishes the last two months. Reddick's tab will likely be around $4 million.</p>
<p>Gentry has a skill-set under-appreciated by the arbitration process -- defense and mashing lefties. He hasn't hit a home run this year, and his .299 slugging percentage is unimpressive. He'll get rewarded a bit for his defensive chops and speed, but I don't anticipate his 2015 salary to be more than $3.5 million</p>
<h5><i>Projected Total: $10-11 million</i></h5>
<h4><b>3<sup>rd</sup> Year Arb Guys</b></h4>
<pre><i><span>Jeff Samardzija</span>, <b>Brandon Moss</b>, <span>John Jaso</span>, <span>Kyle Blanks</span>, <span>Sam Fuld</span></i></pre>
<p>This bracket is where the bulk of the A's money will go this offseason. Samardzija will command between $10-11 million after putting together his best season to date -- his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is 3.81 for his career, and 3.33 in 2014. His earlier arbitration figures were obfuscated by the fact that he began his career as a reliever. A similar pitcher, <span>Matt Garza</span>, received a $10.25 million contract in 2013, and although Shark is better, Garza was already at $9.5 million the year before.</p>
<p>Brandon Moss is going to get <i>PAID</i>. He's heading into his third round of arbitration, although he won't become a free agent until after 2016. He's on pace to hit 30 home runs for the second straight year -- and Lord knows dingers get you paid. After a top-5 MVP finish in 2012, <span>Chase Headley</span> received a considerable raise from $3.48 million to $8.58 million. I expect Moss' $4.1 million contract this season to swell to the $8-9 million range.</p>
<p>Jaso is the final "big ticket" item for the A's to account for. He received $2.3 million this offseason, and is polishing off another fine offensive season -- in fact, he's been the second-best offensive catcher behind Buster Posey since 2012, per wRC+ (133, min. 900 PA). He'll likely earn $5-6 million next season.</p>
<p>As for the rest, who knows whether or not the A's keep Fuld and Blanks? But, if they do, they shouldn't cost more than $3 million combined.</p>
<h5>Projected Total: $28-30 million</h5>
<p><b> </b></p>
<p><b> </b></p>
<p><b> Free Agents</b></p>
<p> </p>
<pre><i><span>Jon Lester</span>, <span>Jason Hammel</span>, <span>Jed Lowrie</span>, <b>Luke Gregerson</b>, <span>Jonny Gomes</span>, Alberto Callaspo</i></pre>
<p>The projected totals above would balloon next year's payroll to approximately $80-85 million. Barring trade -- and you can never bar that -- the A's front office will have between $10-20 million to spend on the open market, if they are to match the current payroll.</p>
<p>With the departures of Alberto Callaspo and Jed Lowrie, the A's biggest need heading into 2015 will be middle infield. Second base has been an offensive black hole, and while we all love Eric Sogard, he's been flirting with the Mendoza Line for most of the season. He's better suited for late-innings defensive duties than playing everyday. Bringing back the aforementioned up-the-middle duo of Callaspo and Lowrie is an option, but other available names include switch hitters <span>Emilio Bonifacio</span> and <span>Asdrubal Cabrera</span>, and then there's power-hitting Gold Glove shortstop <span>J.J. Hardy</span>.</p>
<p>The A's will also be in search of another right-handed power bat. The obvious fits are <span>Josh Willingham</span>, Jonny Gomes and Michael Cuddyer. Cuddyer would be the most expensive, but he can also play all over, something the A's value more than other clubs.</p>
<p>(Also, other fiscally-minded teams have begun signing their young stars to long-term deals. It wouldn't be surprising to see A's pursue long-term pacts with <span>Sonny Gray</span> and <span>Derek Norris</span>.)</p>
<p>The A's are too sneaky a team to project a next season for -- having the most ADD General Manager in baseball doesn't hurt either. However, the conflating of success and money in 2014 seems to point to the A's once again setting a new payroll record in 2015. None of the names mentioned above would require a long-term commitment, which fits well into the A's current business model.</p>
<h5>Projected Payroll: $80-85 million</h5>
<pre>*Chart below brought to you by Cot's </pre>
<pre><iframe src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EBWcl5GzL-bppNKWGvNBy8gr5wEOv9ZGZHDQjmBS1ao/pubhtml?widget=true&headers=false" height="600" width="707"></iframe></pre>
https://www.athleticsnation.com/2014/8/2/5962163/trade-deadline-athletics-2015-payroll-josh-donaldsonSpencer Silva2014-08-02T19:00:03-07:002014-08-02T19:00:03-07:00Decompression: What Beane Maybe Should Have Done
<figure>
<img alt="The man who could have saved us a SS." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/vZQSsojd3vPTAx2HwrKegOxPKE8=/0x110:2843x2005/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/36425902/20140729_ajl_sh2_055.JPG.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>The man who could have saved us a SS. | Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Disclaimers a-plenty: Billy Beane has more GM acumen in his left pinky than I have in my entire body, and he knows what deals are and are not possible at any moment. However, in my analysis of the flurry of deals the A's made in July I will not contradict any sentiments I expressed along the way about the various avenues that the A's did, and did not, choose.</p> <p>In July Billy Beane looked at his current A's team, saw a chance to win a tough AL West, potentially to advance deep into the playoffs and perhaps even to the World Series. He felt that as good as Oakland's pitching was it was in need of another ace if the A's were going to stave off the hard-charging <a href="https://www.halosheaven.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Angels</a> and then go toe to toe with the likes of teams such as the <a href="https://www.blessyouboys.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Detroit Tigers</a> and <a href="https://www.truebluela.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Los Angeles Dodgers</a>.</p>
<p>I agree with Billy on the need to add an ace to the core of Kazmir and Gray in order to really position the team to take the division and be favorites to advance in each playoff round. We just perhaps disagree on the talent he ultimately chose to give up, and to get, in this quest. Follow me down another road, in an alternate universe, and see how it looks to you...</p>
<p>In July, when Beane wound up dealing <span>Addison Russell</span>, <span>Dan Straily</span>, and <span>Billy McKinney</span> to acquire <span>Jeff Samardzija</span>, the <a href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Arizona Diamondbacks</a> were shopping Brandon McCarthy. The cost to acquire McCarthy turned out to be the young, soft-tossing finesse lefty SP Vidal Nuño. Sound familiar? Oakland had a slightly better version of Nuño in <span>Tommy Milone</span>, a 13-game winner in 2012, 12-game winner in 2013, in the midst of a solid 2014 season, and controllable through 2017 -- or 2018 if a rebuilding team stashed him at Triple-A for a bit like the A's/<a href="https://www.twinkietown.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Twins</a> have done.</p>
<p>I have to think the A's could have obtained McCarthy for Milone -- if not for him alone, then for Tommy and another prospect. Heck, if you want, go ahead and make that prospect McKinney: You think Vidal Nuño gets it done, yet Tommy Milone and Billy McKinney don't? As I argued prior to his being traded, McCarthy was a truly ideal A's target because he is legitimately at <i>least</i> a #3 SP and the A's have, in <span>Jesse Chavez</span>, the depth to cover for the possibility McCarthy landed on the DL.</p>
<p>By obtaining McCarthy, the A's would have been in position to jump into the fray for <span>Jon Lester</span> and call it a day. Lester and Gomes for Cespedes, knowing that for all of Cespedes' flash and name recognition his offensive production could be replaced by Gomes and Vogt, would have been one bold move, not two (Samardzija and then Lester), that were jarring, disruptive, but most importantly forced the A's to mortgage so much in order to deepen the front of their rotation.</p>
<p>Now in this scenario what would the A's have had, for July, August, September, and October?</p>
<p>Your <b>July</b> rotation, trying to keep pace with the torrid Angels, would have been:</p>
<p><b>Kazmir<br>Gray<br>McCarthy<br>Chavez<br>Straily or Pomeranz</b></p>
<p>Your <b>August</b> and <b>September</b> rotation, trying to distance yourself from the Angels and win the AL West, would have been:</p>
<p><b>Lester<br>Kazmir<br>Gray<br>McCarthy<br>Straily or Pomeranz </b></p>
<p>... with Chavez in the bullpen to limit his innings. If McCarthy (or anyone) goes down, Chavez moves back into the rotation having rested his arm in the meantime.</p>
<p>Your <b>October</b> postseason rotation in 5-7 game series:</p>
<p><b>Lester<br>Gray<br>Kazmir<br>McCarthy</b></p>
<p>And of course the clincher: <i>In this scenario the A's still have Addison Russell</i>. While I could see dealing Russell for a true ace under contract through 2015, I was not okay with trading him for another #2 SP, which is how I view Samardzija. Nor would I have advocated moving Russell for a 3-month rental of an ace such as Lester.</p>
<p>Give me the above rotations and I think Oakland is still "the team to beat, by far" in the AL West and the team to beat in the post-season. And I think it was completely and totally doable. Heck, we know the Lester deal was, and we have a pretty clear indicator that the A's had the chip(s) to land McCarthy just dealing players they wound up trading in the flurry of trades they made.</p>
<p>Oh, what about acquiring <span>Sam Fuld</span>? Well, in my scenario you would still have Straily to offer -- but if it came down to it I would have been satisfied with calling up <span>Shane Peterson</span> until <span>Coco Crisp</span> was back, if that was the cost of keeping Russell and still procuring all the starting pitching quality, and depth, you needed.</p>
<p>This is, in my opinion, the route Beane should have gone given the availability of McCarthy, then Samardzija, then Lester, the cost to acquire each, and the slots they would fit into for Oakland. One ace, one more "big 4" addition, and no need to deal Russell.</p>
<p>Oh and if you want to get really fancy, come winter you can still knock on the <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Cubs</a>' door inquiring about Samardzija. For only one season of his services, maybe the price is a tad lower, e.g., <span>Daniel Robertson</span> instead of Russell. Wouldn't that be the cherry on top of the sundae? Or perhaps you use the savings on Cespedes' 2015 contract and use them for another Kazmir-type signing. But as Beane says, you worry about 2015 when the 2014 season is over -- which for Oakland, could have been after the World Series, with Lester and McCarthy on their way out and Russell on his way up, if the A's had played it just a bit differently in July.</p>
https://www.athleticsnation.com/2014/8/2/5963305/decompression-what-beane-could-have-maybe-should-have-doneNico2014-08-01T15:38:07-07:002014-08-01T15:38:07-07:00How do Thursday's trades affect the Angels?
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<img alt="The ease of the Angels' remaining schedule is not head and shoulders above what it was a couple days ago." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/3iW8x1njE_EyAyGneYEDlaa5wf0=/0x50:2699x1849/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/36391306/451181888.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>The ease of the Angels' remaining schedule is not head and shoulders above what it was a couple days ago. | Stephen Dunn</figcaption>
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<p>The fortunes of the Athletics are only half the equation. What about the division rival who is right on their heels?</p> <p>The American League pennant races got shaken up at Thursday's trade deadline, and now that the dust is settling it's time to figure out where everyone stands in the new landscape. While the obvious thing is to look at the teams who actually made the trades, <a href="http://www.halosheaven.com/2014/7/31/5957097/do-angels-benefit-from-david-price-john-lackey-jon-lester-trades" target="_blank">Halos Heaven took an interesting look</a> at the other side. It's only a few paragraphs, but here's the big finish:</p>
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<p>Did the A's get better today? Eh.... maybe a little, but the schedule ahead ensures the Angels of a wold without Lackey, Peavy and Price. Pretty nice.</p>
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<p>The premise is two-fold. One is that the Angels are getting C.J. Wilson back soon; while he is not the "equivalent" of Jon Lester, as Rev suggests, the point is that they are adding back into the mix a legitimate top-of-the-rotation pitcher who didn't contribute much to their recent hot streak while he was on the shelf with an ankle injury.</p>
<p>The second point is that, due to their remaining schedule, they could get some help from the fact that the big pieces who moved will now <i>not</i> be on their former teams when the Halos face them. It boils down to the fact that they have likely gotten out of facing David Price in their Rays series this weekend, as well as a bunch of starts by Jon Lester, John Lackey, and Jake Peavy in their seven upcoming games against the Red Sox. Rev admits that they will still face Lester in their 10 games against the A's, but it will also be an A's team without Yoenis Cespedes.</p>
<p>Fortunately for us, though, I think Rev is being a bit optimistic here. Yes, the Angels won't have to face Price this weekend, but they weren't scheduled to anyway; he was set to go on Tuesday against the A's, so it is actually <i>Oakland</i> who will receive this scheduling benefit. Neither team faces the Tigers again until October, so Price is no longer a factor in the AL West race. Point, Oakland.</p>
<p>Next, the Angels won't have to face Peavy in Boston ... except that Peavy is terrible this year. He had a 1-9 record and an ERA of nearly 5.00 before the trade; facing him is a <i>good</i> thing in 2014, as Giants' opponents are about to find out. Missing out on him is a bad thing, especially if whichever young pitching prospect replaces him shows flashes of brilliance now and then and happens to have one of those games while he is in Anaheim. Lackey has been legitimately good, so the Halos will indeed get a boost from missing him, as Rev suggests.</p>
<p>As for Lester, wouldn't you rather face him in a game against the weak Red Sox than in a head-to-head game against the team you're trying to catch? Seeing him in an Oakland uniform instead of Jesse Chavez is a serious negative for the Angels' fortunes. Looking around the rest of the league, the relocation of Justin Masterson to the NL is not material -- the Angels just have one make-up game against Cleveland, and Oakland is done playing them entirely. The Mariners made improvements, but both clubs have two series left against them so that's a wash. Each team has different interleague opponents remaining, but none of them made huge changes -- for us, the Braves added Emilio Bonifacio; for them, the Dodgers got Darwin Barney and the Marlins picked up Jarred Cosart.</p>
<p>The net effect is this. The Angels get out of <i>maybe</i> two starts against Lackey, but they also face Lester in more meaningful games while cutting the favorable Peavy matchup(s). The A's get out of a one-sided Price vs. Jason Hammel showdown. Without even factoring in Oakland's clear improvement, the A's are getting the better end of the new league environment.</p>
<p>The Angels stood pat at the deadline, and <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2014/8/1/5959611/angels-trade-al-playoffs-wild-card" target="_blank">that was probably just fine</a>. They made their moves when they added Huston Street, Jason Grilli, and Joe Thatcher to their bullpen, and those were serious improvements to their roster. They may wish that they'd added a starter now that Tyler Skaggs <a href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.usatoday.com%2Fstory%2Fsports%2Fmlb%2Fangels%2F2014%2F08%2F01%2Flos-angeles-angels-tyler-skaggs-baltimore-orioles-injury-no-hitter%2F13449837%2F&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.athleticsnation.com%2F2014%2F8%2F1%2F5960767%2Fmlb-trade-deadline-athletics-angels-al-west" target="_blank" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener">came down with a funky forearm</a> just hours after the deadline, but we don't need to add that unrelated event to the equation for the premise to remain intact. Not only did the A's get better on Thursday while the Angels stayed idle, but the rest of the league gave Oakland a tiny extra boost in the strength of their remaining schedule.</p>
https://www.athleticsnation.com/2014/8/1/5960767/mlb-trade-deadline-athletics-angels-al-westAlex Hall2014-08-01T14:23:49-07:002014-08-01T14:23:49-07:00The new importance of Josh Reddick
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<img alt="Josh, 27yo SWM, enjoys wrestling, pie, and long trots around the bases." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/FEg3HeWYPOptGEugGw20MO0A5rs=/0x0:3769x2513/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/36388616/452906116.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Josh, 27yo SWM, enjoys wrestling, pie, and long trots around the bases. | Bob Levey</figcaption>
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<p>The Athletics right fielder has been hiding in the shadows a bit this year. With Yoenis Cespedes out of the picture, will he step into the spotlight?</p> <p>In 2012, Josh Reddick was one of the biggest snubs from the All-Star Game. That's weird to think about now -- not that he didn't make it, but that he maybe <i>should</i> have. He certainly deserved it over the team's actual representative that year, a BABIP-fueled Ryan Cook. At the time, Reddick was looking like he may have been the best player on a good team, with massive power and Gold Glove defense.</p>
<p>Of course, that didn't last. His high level of offensive production turned out to be a fluke, and it turns out that he profiles better as a defensive wizard who, as a bonus, can swat a homer now and then. He's still a valuable player -- he's been worth more than a full win by both measures of WAR in only 63 games, which extrapolates out to roughly a three-win season -- but not to the same extent and in the same multitude of ways that we initially thought. When he's missed time to injuries in the last couple years, it hasn't felt devastating to the team because he's not so valuable that he can't be replaced; in fact, at times it's almost seemed like a blessing in disguise when his absence has helped solve roster crunches.</p>
<p>Things have changed now, yet again, for two big reasons. The first is that Reddick has started hitting. Beginning with his four games in June in between DL stints, and looking through this morning, he's got a line of .357/.391/.643 in 13 games (46 PA's) with seven extra-base hits (two homers), three walks, and only four strikeouts. A high batting average? A low strikeout rate? Reddick craves not these things. And yet, there he is, putting the ball in play and getting on base like crazy.</p>
<p>And before you scream small sample, keep in mind that we waited <i>all year</i> last season for Reddick to put together even one week like this. It only happened once or twice, was always centered around just one or two massive games, and was always followed by a long period of futility rather than a second good week. This time, in 13 games, he's got as many multi-hit contests (five) as 0-fers, one of those 0-fers came as a late-inning replacement with only two at-bats, and none of them came on back-to-back days. In one of those 0-fer games, he still reached base via a walk. It's small, but it's the best he's done in a long time.</p>
<p>For the season, he's now got a .701 OPS, good for an OPS+ of 97 -- he's reached the level of "league-average hitter" for the year overall. A Reddick who can hit at all is quite a good player. He wouldn't be a far cry from Jason Heyward, the only other superior defensive right fielder in the world, who also goes through long struggles with the bat and has hot-and-cold running home run power. <i>If</i> Reddick can still keep hitting at even a decent level -- not his current two-week pace, but a solid .750 OPS.</p>
<p>The other thing that has changed the situation is, of course, Thursday's big trade. With Yoenis Cespedes out of the picture, the importance of each other outfielder has now increased. We know that Jonny Gomes can make up for the offensive side against lefties, but we also know that Coco Crisp is going to miss time and that the other replacement, Sam Fuld, will not be contributing the same type of value that the team lost with Cespedes. Without Cespedes and Coco, the outfield consists of a bit of great defense (Fuld, Reddick), a bit of power (Moss, Gomes half the time), and a bit of <strike>black</strike> green magic that we hope will continue (Vogt). As things stand, that's probably good enough to continue being a great team.</p>
<p>But what if Reddick keeps hitting? Not like he did in first-half 2012, but more like, say Heyward? What if he can maintain just a 110 OPS+? That's asking a lot, but it's not asking for a miracle, not with the encouraging signs he's shown lately. And if he does that, suddenly you have replaced Cespedes without even factoring in the new left field platoon that is literally filling his shoes in the lineup. Remember, Cespedes only had an OPS+ of 114 despite all his talent, and suddenly finding yourself with a Reddick who can match that production while still playing superior defense would actually result in a <i>better</i> lineup overall (since Gomes/Fuld would only need to hit better than Bad Reddick and average out to a decent fielding duo to make up that side of the equation).</p>
<p>I've personally looked at Reddick as something of a lotto ticket this year. He's worth having for his defense, but there's always that chance that the latent power potential will come back, even for short spurts, and turn him back into something like a star. And now, with some space cleared up in the lineup and the chance to re-establish himself as an everyday, two-way player, his chance to make a difference is bigger than it was before. There is now a void that needs to be filled, by whoever is the first person to step up and fill it.</p>
<p>If we continue to get the same old Reddick, the one with a 90 OPS+ who just has a big game now and then, the team can still succeed. Heck, it has to this point, and there is still plenty of other offense to pick up the slack without his help. But if continues to be a plus at the plate, and reverts back to a guy who can slot into the No. 5 or No. 6 slot in the order every day? The lineup will have lost one of the scariest power hitters in the game, the two-time Derby champion, and still somehow gotten better when all was said and done.</p>
<p>Reddick has the chance to be one of the most important pieces of this roster shake-up. The only question is whether or not he can muster the power to make it happen.</p>
<p><i>Reddick is batting seventh on Friday against struggling right-hander Jeremy Guthrie. There are worse situations than that for a guy hoping to hit well.</i></p>
https://www.athleticsnation.com/2014/8/1/5960475/athletics-the-new-importance-of-josh-reddick-yoenis-cespedes-tradeAlex Hall2014-08-01T14:09:42-07:002014-08-01T14:09:42-07:00Scribner DFA'd pending optional waivers
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/In2ppL34b3bQLQLIUUJmTD4jebE=/0x0:4000x2667/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/36388466/20130903_ter_ax5_254.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>The <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.athleticsnation.com/">Oakland Athletics</a> <a href="http://oakland.athletics.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140801&content_id=87446498&vkey=pr_oak&c_id=oak">announced</a> they have designated <span>Evan Scribner</span> for assignment to make room on the 25-man roster for the arrivals of <span>Jon Lester</span> and Jonny Gomes. Scribner will probably be optioned soon, but Scribner must clear revocable optional waivers to be optioned to Sacramento because he made his first appearance on a Major League active roster more than three years ago.</p>
<p>Scribner cleared optional waivers during the previous waiver period, but those waivers expired with the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, and new waivers must be obtained that will last through the rest of the season. <a href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2013/1/24/3911488/blue-jays-j-a-happ-to-start-in-aaa-but-unwritten-rule-will-keep-him">According to Blue Bird Banter</a>, there exists a "gentleman's agreement" between major league GMs not to claim players on revocable waivers for the sole purpose of preventing a roster transaction.</p>
<p>In <a style="background-color: #ffffff;" href="http://oakland.athletics.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140801&content_id=87439238&vkey=pr_oak&c_id=oak">other transactional news today</a>, the Athletics released <span>Jim Johnson</span>.</p>
<p><b>Update (3:16 PM) -</b> San Francisco Chronicle A's beat writer Susan Slusser confirms that Evan Scribner will be optioned as soon as he clears waivers:</p>
<blockquote data-partner="tweetdeck" class="twitter-tweet">
<p>Evan Scribner is not coming off <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Athletics?src=hash">#Athletics</a> 40 man roster. He must clear optional waivers (aka "Blevins waivers"). Just procedural.</p>
— Susan Slusser (@susanslusser) <a href="https://twitter.com/susanslusser/statuses/495332000933236737">August 1, 2014</a>
</blockquote>
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<p>"Blevins waivers" refers to a <a href="http://toddvanpoppelrookiecardretirementplan.com/2011/07/21/jerry-blevins-teaches-us-a-lesson-in-optional-waivers/">similar situation</a> Jerry Blevins went through in 2011. The current bargaining agreement allows for waivers on the weekend, however, which should limit this situation to essentially the immediate post-deadline period.</p>
https://www.athleticsnation.com/2014/8/1/5960629/evan-scribner-designated-for-assignment-pending-optional-waivers-jim-johnson-releasedJeremy F. Koo2014-08-01T06:00:09-07:002014-08-01T06:00:09-07:00Lester-Cespedes Trade: The Long And Short Of It
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/C9ofrEfnvYdNTS3ogZT7tIhPlaY=/0x10:4000x2677/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/36340574/451434256.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Rich Schultz</figcaption>
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<p>"Moneyball" told the story of an Oakland A's team that won 102 games in 2001, then lost star <span>Jason Giambi</span> ... and went on to win 103 games in 2002. The A's did it, in part, by replacing a surprising amount of Giambi's production in ways not fully appreciated in baseball circles: <span>Scott Hatteberg</span>, formerly a third-string catcher, became a 1Bman whose superior defense, and strong on base skills, combined to approximate Giambi's overall value far closer than anyone would have thought. Oakland also had their "big three" intact and rode three aces to more 100+ win glory in 2002.</p>
<p>This off-season I was going to advocate for trading <span>Yoenis Cespedes</span> on the premise that the A's could essentially do a poor-man's Moneyball redux -- a "poor man's" because Cespedes isn't nearly the player Giambi was. I was going to point out how Oakland could replace Cespedes' offensive production, and then some, with a platoon of <span>Stephen Vogt</span> and, yes, <span>Jonny Gomes</span>, or <span>Kyle Blanks</span>.</p>
<p>You see the duo of Vogt and Gomes, or Vogt and Blanks, may not be sexy, may not have star power, but it is likely to produce a slash line a lot better than the .256/.303/.464 Cespedes has managed so far this season, or the .262/.318/.470 he has put up so far in his MLB career. In fact a Vogt/Gomes platoon will probably outproduce that enough to offset the loss of defensive excellence, some of which can be mitigated through late inning defensive replacements.</p>
<p>However, my argument was going to be that the A's could deal Cespedes and be just as "World Series contention" good in 2015, and use the flashy trade chip that is Cespedes in order to reload a bit for 2016 and beyond. And that's where my thinking, and Billy Beane's, parted ways for at least the time being.</p>
<p>Cespedes was not dealt for the next Dan Haren-<span>Gio Gonzalez</span>-<span>Jarrod Parker</span> that the A's tend to use their trade chips to acquire. Nor was he dealt for a prospect who might blossom and help the team's middle infield, or outfield, in 2-3 years. In fact he was traded for players only designed to help the A's in 2014.</p>
<p>To me -- and I know fans' views on this differ a ton -- the mark of the best General Managing is the ability to keep the organization potentially strong now <i>and</i> strong later, to be able to take the short and wide view concurrently. So the question then becomes, is this a trade just to push the chips as far to the center of the table as possible for a World Series in 2014, future be damned, or are there still avenues left for Oakland to regroup for 2015 and beyond? Here's my take...</p>
<p><b>2014</b></p>
<p>I firmly believe that this move made the A's better -- a lot better -- for 2014's division and post-season push. First of all, a rotation of <span>Jon Lester</span>, <span>Jeff Samardzija</span>, <span>Sonny Gray</span>, and <span>Scott Kazmir</span> is pretty spectacular and has a chance to win any 5 or 7 games series against any team, bar none. Especially considering that Oakland has a strong bullpen and still has an excellent offense and defense without Cespedes.</p>
<p>Remember that Cespedes was, quite literally, the 6th best hitter in the A's lineup. That's right, he was. <span>John Jaso</span> is a better offensive player than Cespedes. So are <span>Josh Donaldson</span>, <span>Brandon Moss</span>, <span>Coco Crisp</span>, Stephen Vogt and Derek Norris. Heck, <span>Jed Lowrie</span> probably is too in a typical season.</p>
<p>Make no mistake about it: The A's just got better in 2014. If that's your end goal Oakland has accomplished it.</p>
<p><b>2015</b></p>
<p>Here's where I am also sanguine about the trade. I believe that in true "Moneyball" fashion the A's will be able to replicate the value Cespedes brings to the team. Not the throws, not the panache, not the occasional absolute brilliance, but the overall value.</p>
<p>I hope the A's, now dealing with agents who supposedly will check in with their client, will re-sign Gomes beyond 2014 to form a platoon of Gomes and Vogt. Is it unrealistic to think this duo could hit a composite, say, .270/.370/.470? Gomes alone vs. LHP is batting .302/.400/.431 this season and .279/.379/.495 for his career. Vogt is harder to predict, but if you believe in Stephen Vogt then you have to think this duo can pretty much kick tushie over what Cespedes has done at the plate.</p>
<p>The 2015 team should also, once again in "Moneyball" fashion, be fine because it will have a legitimate big 3 of Samardzija, Gray, Kazmir to build its rotation around. Presumably Jesse Chavez and <span>Drew Pomeranz</span> will be in the mix, along with perhaps a low-key "middle of the rotation" free agent signing, and <span>A.J. Griffin</span> due back in July. (I do not count Jarrod Parker in the SP depth chart because the most successful SP ever to recover from a second Tommy John surgery is <span>Chris Capuano</span>.)</p>
<p>The A's need to figure out SS, either with an extension for Jed Lowrie or a move, but I see no reason, with the resources the A's have, why Oakland cannot set itself up to be strong contenders in 2015. Remember that they have freed up money by trading Cespedes and that money can be used to shore up needs in 2015.</p>
<p><b>2016 and beyond</b></p>
<p>This is where the Cespedes-Lester-Gomes trade concerns me. I saw Cespedes as a golden trade chip for restocking the pitching staff, restocking the upper minors where the A's are truly barren. Cespedes is the type of flashy player who, with a year left on his contract, might bring back that "major league ready starting pitcher" who could replace Kazmir by 2016. Yes, Cespedes was used to get us Lester now, but he was not used to get us a Danny Haren or Gio Gonzalez later, and given the current state of the A's farm system this is a huge issue.</p>
<p>Maybe you're fine with punting on 2017 for a shot at the World Series in 2014 and 2015. I'm not. So with the perfect "2016 and beyond reload" trade chip gone to bolster the present club, how can Billy Beane finish this round of moves in a way that keeps the team strong past 2015?</p>
<p>The key is always starting pitching. If you have "3 aces" and a decent offense/defense, you're in contention. Is it possible that the A's could get serious about keeping one of their new aces long term? They have freed up some money with the Cespedes trade, but more importantly they will also get an influx of revenue if they can get deep into the post-season.</p>
<p>If the A's get to the World Series -- and make no mistake about it, they haven't even won the AL West yet -- you're looking at maybe 7-10 additional sold out home games, plus TV revenues, plus a swell in advance season ticket sales for the following season...The point being that success now does give you some direct resources for setting up success later.</p>
<p>That being said, I don't see the A's making a run at signing Jon Lester beyond 2014. Oakland has built its success around not making deals that commit insane amounts of money to players in their 30s. It would be kind of sweet, frankly, if Beane turned around and inked Lester for 4-5 years (which means around $100M) but I just don't see that happening. As good as Lester is, he is 30 and he has thrown a lot of pitches in his life and you just don't know how many more he has in him.</p>
<p>But what I <i>could</i> see happening is an extension for Jeff Samardzija. Yes Samardzija is only one year younger (29), but he also has fewer miles in his arm because he didn't throw as much, as young, while he was busy catching touchdown passes as a legitimate NFL prospect. Catching TD passes puts little wear and tear on your pitching arm, just as playing 1B put little stress on Sean Doolittle's pitching arm.</p>
<p>Perhaps the A's, who signed Doolittle to a long-term extension this winter, are emphasizing the factor of "tread" in picking out tires to commit to, and might see if they can make Samardzija a centerpiece for the rotation beyond 2015. An extension for Samardzija -- not a cheap proposition, but also not a $100M+ one -- is one way I could see Oakland setting itself up for success beyond 2015 without having dealt Cespedes for an exciting young pitcher or two.</p>
<p>Another avenue would be a splashy International Free Agent signing, as Cespedes was, and which the A's might feel they have the revenue to pursue. Find the next Cespedes willing to sign a 4-year deal, or the next <span>Jose Abreu</span>, and suddenly you're sitting a lot prettier for 2016-17 than you were.</p>
<p>In other words, there are ways to "rebuild before you have to rebuild," and the A's have two years to plan for it. Maybe you don't care if the team loses 95 games in 2017 so long as they get the World Series now. As someone who cares both about the now and the later, my feelings about the "Lespedes" trade are mixed, for now. I thought Cespedes was the perfect, and perhaps only, chip for reloading an already barren farm system left yet more decimated by Russell's departure. Show me the new plan for 2016-17 and then I can fully evaluate this trade. If that plan is "lose a lot" then I don't love it. But I know that Beane is both competitive and creative, so ... ?</p>
https://www.athleticsnation.com/2014/8/1/5956731/lester-gomes-for-cespedes-trade-the-long-and-short-of-itNico2014-07-31T17:40:38-07:002014-07-31T17:40:38-07:00Unmitigated excitement is totally allowed
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<p>Forget about 2015.</p>
<p>The A's just traded a roughly three-win outfielder for an ace. Their <i>fourth</i> ace.</p>
<p>Oakland's front four is as follows, in no particular order because everyone on this list is a bona fide front-line starter in his own right: <span>Sonny Gray</span>, <span>Jeff Samardzija</span>, <span>Scott Kazmir</span>, and <span>Jon Lester</span>. If you prefer to reference those pitchers by their ERAs and not their names, the list looks like this: 2.65, 2.92, 2.37, and 2.52, respectively.</p>
<p><span>Jesse Chavez</span>, who presumably will hold on to the fifth starter's role now that <span>Tommy Milone</span> is gone and <span>Jason Hammel</span> has forgotten how to pitch, isn't too shabby an option, either. Besides, he won't be starting in the playoffs.</p>
<p>The player replacing that three-win outfielder, deservedly beloved for his impossibly powerful arm and back-to-back Home Run Derby titles, has a wRC+ of 134 against left-handed pitching, more or less the only type of pitching he'll be facing.</p>
<p>He's also not a newcomer to the Oakland clubhouse.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<p><span>Jonny Gomes</span>? As Seth Smith said, "I never really understood what leadership in baseball is until I saw him with our young kids in Oakland."</p>
— Richard Justice (@richardjustice) <a href="https://twitter.com/richardjustice/statuses/494851663237103617">July 31, 2014</a>
</blockquote>
<p>Of course, this isn't nearly the same team as the 2012 squad that took baseball by storm. <span>Billy Burns</span> remains the only rookie to play for the A's this season, and he was on the big-league roster for about 72 hours. But the fact remains that Gomes is a bona fide leader. The shot of him slapping <span>Pat Neshek</span> on the knee after his incredible outing in the 2012 ALDS was one of that year's best moments. Gomes is an addition far more valuable than just his numbers, and his numbers (especially as a platoon player) are very good.</p>
<p>Oh, and Sam Fuld? Well, <span>Sam Fuld's</span> has been worth 2.3 WAR this season. <span>Yoenis Cespedes</span>: Also worth 2.3 WAR this season. Fuld is a stellar defender, not as flashy as Cespedes but potentially more effective. Between Fuld and Gomes, the A's avoid a major production gap following the loss of Cespedes, though without the star power.</p>
<p>Tommy Milone? His ceiling was never that of a top-of-the-rotation starter. A perfect fit for the Coliseum, yes, a fun pitcher to watch when he was locating, yes, but not the kind of loss that fans will turn around in 2016 and say, "Man, if only Billy Beane hadn't traded Tommy Milone." He'll be missed, and his production (in the rare spots when he would have had the opportunity to contribute) will be replicated and probably improved upon.</p>
<p>Here's a question to ask yourself if you're having trouble coming to grips with losing Yoenis. Are you so worried about 2015 that you can't enjoy this trade, what it signifies, and the position it puts the A's in to win their first World Series in a quarter-century? Fine. The 2015 A's, barring something very unforeseen, will still feature <span>Josh Donaldson</span>, <span>Derek Norris</span>, <span>Brandon Moss</span>, <span>Coco Crisp</span>, <span>Craig Gentry</span>, <span>Sean Doolittle</span>, <span>Ryan Cook</span>, among others. Jeff Samardzija, Sonny Gray, and Scott Kazmir will continue to anchor the rotation. <span>Jarrod Parker</span> and <span>A.J. Griffin</span> will come back from Tommy John surgery, hopefully with some success. Most of the bullpen will be back.</p>
<p>Besides, Billy Beane and the front office will have dozens of millions of dollars to play with in the offseason. Cespedes' contract, destined to be unloaded eventually, was worth eight figures. The odds of the A's making significant moves to secure their long-term future this offseason — either extending a portion of the cost-controlled core or making a run at a high-profile free agent — are high.</p>
<p>In a nutshell, you shouldn't worry about 2015 because the team you're watching right now has the potential to be one of the best A's teams of all time. If Billy Beane isn't worried about next year, you shouldn't be either. Objectively, did he give away Cespedes for too little, give up too much for Fuld? Maybe. But at this point, he gets the benefit of the doubt a million times over.</p>
<p>The 2015 <a href="https://www.athleticsnation.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Oakland Athletics</a> will be very, very good. Don't worry about them.</p>
<p>For now, watch the 2014 team. It's quite entertaining.</p>
https://www.athleticsnation.com/2014/7/31/5956033/unmitigated-excitement-is-totally-allowedLF94