Athletics Nation - Athletics Nation MailbagAn SB Nation blog for Oakland Athletics fanshttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/47025/an-fave.png2013-12-10T09:44:21-08:00http://www.athleticsnation.com/rss/stream/34575352013-12-10T09:44:21-08:002013-12-10T09:44:21-08:00Mailbag # 6: Musical Chairs, Cespedes Extension
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<figcaption>Don't High Five Him Too Hard! | Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Remember the mailbag? Billy Beane nearly destroyed it in the great hot stove explosion this winter. But we’ve dusted the ash off to find some questions this week.</p> <p></p>
<p><i>The A's value versatility and 1b and 3b are typically the easiest positions for players to transition and learn. Given that Lowrie would play better at 2b than ss, is there any chance that Donaldson or Cespedes (half joking...) could be tried at ss? This would open up 3b, which may be something Jaso, Moss, or someone else could try. Donaldson was a former catcher that was converted to 3b after all. Also, it may be easier to target a 3b in free agency, trade, or minor league call ups. This would immediately upgrade the A's offensive replacing Sogard/Callaspo with Jaso. Your thoughts?</i></p>
<p>This is kind of a long view/short view issue. As it stands right now, the A's have an above-average defensive 3B in Donaldson and a below-average defensive SS in Lowrie. Moving Lowrie off of SS is in theory a good idea, but then the A's need someone else to play there, and he displaces one of Punto or Sogard off of 2B. Punto is a capable SS defensively, but a massive downgrade on offense. Donaldson could maybe learn the position, but the likelihood of him being above-average immediately is low, and then one of Sogard or Punto mans 3B full-time. Alternatively, as you alluded to, Moss or Jaso could learn 3B, but again, they would be unlikely to be even average initially. Ideally, players would be placed at positions in which they are most likely to succeed, and so far the A's have done that well. Don't forget - Donaldson played 3B in college. I don't think Cespedes would be placed in the infield. Ever.</p>
<p>Looking down the road, Addison Russell has evolved into a player scouts are projecting to stick at SS, and likely arrive in Oakland at 2015. Why move Donaldson to SS and Jaso/Moss to 3B, only to convert Donaldson back to 3B in 2015 when Russell takes over the position full-time? Or, rather, why do it when Sogard and Punto can man the position if necessary (Lowrie injury, for example)?</p>
<p><i>The last time the A's decided to invest in a position player for the long term, it was Eric Chavez (franchise record 6-year / $66 Million in 2004. I believe that Yoenis Cespedes can be the backbone of the Oakland A's offense going forward into the future. What is the likelihood that the A's will put that kind of guaranteed money up front and sign Yoenis Cespedes to a long-term contract beyond the 2015 season? What is a realistic timetable for such a signing to occur?</i></p>
<p>If there is a chance for an extension, I suspect this year would be the one that would make the A's decision one way or another. I would not, however, take a potential Cespedes extension to assure his status as an Oakland A for the duration of the deal. Indeed, Trevor Cahill was traded the year after he signed an extension, partly because the Diamondbacks had cost control over him for several years because of the extension.</p>
<p>That being said, should Cespedes have a good year, he could also bring back a significant haul of prospects without signing an extension. It is no secret that the A's farm system is rather barren now having graduated Sonny Gray and with Choice's trade to Texas, so that may look like an attractive option. Again, I suspect it all depends on how the A's view his prospects for long-term health and success.</p>
<p><i>The Pirates added Liriano, why can't we take a chance on someone like Josh Johnson, Roy Halladay, or even Johan Santana, just off the top of my head? All were aces at some point, each have a chip on their shoulder, pitching at the O.co on a playoff team would be nice for them, and I can't imagine costing mega bucks, either. Could you imagine if Parker was our Game-3 starter?</i></p>
<p>Well, this email was written a few weeks ago, but in the intervening time, the only remaining available starter on that list is Johan Santana. Josh Johnson signed with Padres, and Roy Halladay retired. Santana could be available, but the A's already signed Kazmir and have Brett Anderson (though he is still on the block). I suspect they would not be interested in another lefty with some injury issues in his past but with a lot of upside. With Straily, Parker, and Gray in the mix, the A's have younger starters without injury history and a whole lot of upside.</p>
<p><i>Do you think Michael Young would be a good fit for the A's? He is a leader, versatile, and a professional hitter. Is he in the A's price range?</i></p>
<p>No.</p>
<p>Well....</p>
<p>No.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><i><br></i></p>
<p><i>Stay tuned for more Hot Stove action today</i></p>
<p></p>
https://www.athleticsnation.com/2013/12/10/5196470/2013-offseason-mailbag-6-infield-musical-chairs-cespedes-extensionAlan Torres2013-11-19T09:41:09-08:002013-11-19T09:41:09-08:00Mailbag #5: Team Core and Trade Talk
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<figcaption>Donaldson's hair is a non-tender candidate | Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>More mailbag! It is getting empty, though. Email us at athleticsnationmailbag [at] gmail [dot] com so you can fill-up the burlap sack. Operators are standing by!</p> <p></p>
<p><i>Can you give us a brief rundown of the contract status of the A's core players - especially curious about Donaldson and Moss?</i></p>
<p>Sure. First, I want to say that this information exists at <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/">Cot's Contracts</a>, now a part of Baseball Prospectus, and that's where I'm pulling it from. If you have a question about the contract of any guy on any team, that's the place to go.</p>
<p>It kind of depends on who you consider the "core" of the A's right now. These are the guys I'd call the core, if I had to pick, along with their contract status:</p>
<ul>
<li>Donaldson - Will be arbitration eligible after 2015. Free agent after 2017.</li>
<li>Moss - Arbitration eligible through 2016. Free Agent after 2016.</li>
<li>Cespedes - $10.5M owed in 2014 and 2015. Free agent after 2015.</li>
<li>Reddick - Arbitration eligible through 2016. Free Agent after 2016.</li>
<li>Crisp - A's exercised club option for 2014. Free agent after 2014.</li>
<li>Parker - Will be arbitration eligible after 2014. Free agent after 2017.</li>
<li>Gray -Will be arbitration eligible after 2016. Free agent after 2019.</li>
<li>Straily - Will be arbitration eligible after 2015. Free agent after 2018.</li>
<li>Doolittle - Will be arbitration eligible after 2015. Free agent after 2018.</li>
<li> Cook - Will be arbitration eligible after 2014. Free agent after 2017.</li>
</ul>
<p><i>If <span>Grant Balfour</span> departs Oakland through the Free-Agency market, will the A's look to promote a Closer internally, or will Bill Beane and the front office pursue a reliever on the open market?</i></p>
<p>It is all but set in stone that Grant Balfour will be wearing another uniform in 2014. The only thing left to determine is which one. While there are some reasonable options available via free agency (Crain maybe?), it seems very likely that someone currently in the fold will be named the closer for 2014. It is also possible that Doolittle, Cook, and Otero will all sharing closing duties in 2014. The A's could make a run at someone like <span>Brian Wilson</span>, who is a free agent and showed he has something left in the arm with the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Dodgers</a> last year, but I suspect he will get richer offers from another team<br><br><i>Do you see any players currently in the minor leagues making a significant daily impact with the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.athleticsnation.com/">Oakland Athletics</a> in 2014, and how soon can we expect them to be on the major league roster?</i></p>
<p>As it stands, the A's have a very deep major league roster with little room for a AAA player to make a major impact in 2014. The only exception is <span>Michael Choice</span>, who will likely to be given a shot to compete for Chris Young's vacated spot of fifth outfielder. On the other hand, he finished the regular season on the major league roster, so that may not exactly fit the definition of minor leaguer.</p>
<p>The A's did sign Phil Humber recently, and while he may simply be minor league depth, it is possible he could fill a bullpen role, or even compete for the fifth starter job with Tom Milone, <span>Dan Straily</span>, and/or <span>A.J. Griffin</span> (depending on how the potential re-signing of Colon shakes out).</p>
<p><i> </i></p>
<p><i>Which players can Billy Beane most effectively leverage through a trade in order to get another bat for the lineup or an arm for the bullpen?</i></p>
<p>The only potential piece would be <span>Alberto Callaspo</span>, who appears to be a reasonable option for the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">Yankees</a> or Dodgers (among others) to fill-in at third for a year or so. He is also now obviated with Punto signed and him being a superior defender at the positions Callaspo plays. But, he is more of a role player, and would likely bring back a fringey position player prospect, or a bullpen arm at best.</p>
<p>I would argue that it is unclear whether the A's have the pieces necessary to acquire a truly impact player. Or, rather, they do, but they would also give up impact players in the process. Some might argue that it would be logical to sell high on <span>Jed Lowrie</span> while he is healthy, or even sell high on Donaldson coming off an MVP-caliber season. But then those positions have to be filled, and the A's have no clear answers to either shortstop or third base waiting able to fill in for the start of 2014.</p>
<p>As far as the bullpen is concerned, there are many options currently available on the free agent market, or potentially available in the future after Spring Training cuts who could full roles in the bullpen. It would be very surprising if a bullpen arm came via trade other than from an extraneous piece like Callaspo.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>I'd also like to point out that several of these questions came from an AN reader serving in the Middle East for the Marine Corps. Thank you for your service, sir, and for reading AN from across the globe!</p>
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https://www.athleticsnation.com/2013/11/19/5122362/2013-offseason-mailbag-5-team-core-and-trade-talkAlan Torres2013-11-15T10:59:17-08:002013-11-15T10:59:17-08:00Mailbag #4: Kevin Youkilis and Other Infielders
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<figcaption>Yeah, no | USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>We have two questions about Kevin Youkilis, and another about shortstop and first base upgrades</p> <p></p>
<p>Here are the questions about Youkilis, from two different people!</p>
<p><i>The prized Greek God of Walks, <span>Kevin Youkilis</span>, is now a free agent. Do the A's try to sign him to a 1-year deal? He's a veteran right handed batter, something the A's could use according to Jane Lee's recent article "The A's have options." Could Youkilis be that guy?</i></p>
<p><i> </i></p>
<p><i>I've read several reports that state the A's need real protection for Cespedes. Thinking back to the Moneyball days, Billy Bean coveted Kevin Youkilis, would he be a good fit if he could be signed on a 1 year/prove your healthy contract? As a DH, it could lead to a healthier year for him.</i></p>
<p>A quick glance at Fangraphs tells that Youkilis hasn't really been a useful player since 2011. He had 118 PAs for the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">Yankees</a> last year, and posted a career high strikeout rate and career low walk rate. Even in 2012, with 509 PAs, he was only worth 1.1 WAR (albeit with a wRC+ of 103). If you believe in the concept of lineup protection, that doesn't exactly fit the bill. In addition, it's not clear his health woes are behind him, and turning 35 during Spring Training certainly does not help in that respect.</p>
<p>What's more, Youkilis does not seem to fit the A's current philosophy of interchangeable players. He can play first and third, and that's really it. He is not a terrible defender, even with his nagging injuries, but those positions are already well spoken for on the current roster. Indeed, with the acquisition of <span>Nick Punto</span>, this makes acquiring a guy like Youkilis even less likely. Donaldson will of course be the primary starter at third, and even if the A's move Callaspo, both Sogard and Punto are capable backups there. At first, Moss, Freiman, and Barton all appear to be worth starting over Youkilis. Even if you discount his defense and only look at his hitting, it's quite likely that a Moss/Jaso /Freiman three-headed rotation at 1B and DH will hit better than Youkilis, and that's not even including <span>Seth Smith</span>, who makes a reasonable case for a bounceback candidate after a sub-par 2013.</p>
<p>I think it is safe to say that Kevin Youkilis will not be coming to Oakland in 2014.</p>
<p><i>We all know <span>Addison Russell</span> is the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.athleticsnation.com/">Oakland Athletics</a> future All Star / someday HOF shortstop, but most agree that he is unlikely to be ready for the 2014 season. <span>Jed Lowrie</span> was fantastic with the bat last year (esp for a ss), but his defense is meh, to say the least, and is less of a liability at second base. What are the A's options for upgrading at ss defense while maintaining at least league average offensive production there? I have heard Peralta is a FA, but I would think he'd be out of the A's price range and wouldn't necessarily be a defensive upgrade. Any other decent-hitting / good fielding shortstops the A's may target for the short-term - FA or via trade?</i></p>
<p><i> </i></p>
<p><i>Also - Do people expect Freiman to start in the bigs next year? Any right-hand 1B's out there that would be a better (i.e., better defense & more power) platoon partner for Moss? Any chance Brandon Mosssome gets a shot at playing everyday? </i></p>
<p><i> </i></p>
<p><i>Thanks for satisfying the baseball-talk gene in these trying times.</i></p>
<p><i> </i></p>
<p>With the Nick Punto signing, I believe this <b>is</b> the A's play for upgrading the middle infield defense. It is fun to ding Punto for his dirty uniform from sliding into first base, but the truth is that he is an excellent defender. If he is used in a platoon playing against left-handers, one can envision this set up:</p>
<p> </p>
<p>LHP:</p>
<p>Donaldson 3B</p>
<p>Punto SS</p>
<p>Lowrie 2B</p>
<p>Freiman 1B</p>
<p> </p>
<p>RHP:</p>
<p>Donaldson 3B</p>
<p>Lowrie SS</p>
<p>Sogard 2B</p>
<p>Moss 1B</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Against RHP, Punto could also spell Donaldson or Lowrie to keep them fresh(er). Punto does not exactly qualify as a league average bat these days - nor did he ever - but he has stuck around as a good defender who is somewhat above embarrassing at the plate. Given the state of the A's payroll, I don't expect to see someone like Infante or Peralta coming to Oakland. Both players stand to cash in on their free agency, and likely end up with deals at an AAV of greater than $10M. <span>J.J. Hardy</span> would cost a lot in prospects, and the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.camdenchat.com/">Orioles</a> have also said they are not shopping him. After that, I can't see any other worthwhile upgrades barring a Beane rabbit-out-of-a-hat surprise.</p>
<p>Freiman may stick around, although it may depend on the status of <span>Alberto Callaspo</span>. After the Punto signing, it seems like Callaspo is obviated from the roster. I can see the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Dodgers</a> or Yankees wanting a one-year third base solution, and Callaspo may be just the guy for them. If he does leave, then I can certainly see a spot for Freiman as the right-handed half of the first base platoon again. After all, he hit for a wRC+ of 125 against left-handers, and that's more than respectable. An upgrade over him would likely be out the A's price range, but would also need to be a serious upgrade. Someone like <span>Mike Napoli</span> would fit the bill, but that also changes the number of plate appearances Moss gets. In other words, an upgrade would have to be not just over Freiman, but over maybe 60-70% of Moss, as well. I just don't see a guy who is available who could do that, unless the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/">Giants</a> get desperate for pitching and want to trade <span>Brandon Belt</span> for <span>Dan Straily</span>.</p>
<p>As far as Moss starting every day, with the glut of infielders comes a surprising lack of depth in the outfield. <span>Michael Choice</span> is likely penciled in as the fifth outfielder going into camp, but it is quite possible he struggles and spends more time in AAA, which would leave Moss as the fifth outfielder. Factor in some obligatory injuries to Cespedes and Crisp, and this only adds to Moss' playing time, which was already at 145 games and 505 PA last year. He's basically an everyday player as it is, but he sits against tough left-handers. I could see 550+ PAs next year, though again, it depends on Callaspo's status. The A's may also want to try to work Jaso in at 1B some of the time, or maybe even try Lowrie down there if they really want to get creative.</p>
<p></p>
https://www.athleticsnation.com/2013/11/15/5108484/2013-offseason-mailbag-4-kevin-youkilis-and-other-infieldersAlan Torres2013-11-09T17:00:03-08:002013-11-09T17:00:03-08:002013 Offseason Mailbag #3: New Scoreboards?
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<figcaption>Debt service in full view | Bob Stanton-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Today's mailbag question is about video boards at the Coliseum as it relates to a future lease extension</p> <p><i>It seems I read somewhere that if the A's re-up there lease at the Coliseum that a modern scoreboard might be installed. The Warriors have had two different hi-def boards in the arena in the last 7-8 years, and they have made it clear they want to leave Oakland. Why has the stadium been so neglected when they have two tenants?<br>Finley's Mule</i></p>
<p>Dear Mr. Mule,<br><br>Your question covers a lot of issues. I have no special expertise or inside information, but I have had a number of conversations with A's Front Office people and I have inferred the following:</p>
<p>The only way the A's would get a new scoreboard (or video board) is by signing a long-term lease with Oakland Coliseum and that will happen the day after Hell freezes over. The Oakland Coliseum isn't going to replace anything for a mere two-year lease which is what the A's seem to want.</p>
<p>The A's have tried to get new video boards, offering to front the money for the installation. But they want to be reimbursed for their outlay through rent credits. The Coliseum Authority cannot afford that. The Raiders could chip in, I suppose. From what I understand, however, the Raiders don't chip in for anything.</p>
<p>I suspect the Warriors negotiated their Hi-Def boards as part of a longer lease deal for the Arena. The Coliseum Authority was no doubt more cooperative because the Warriors had been steady, long-term, profitable tenants. Of course, that was then, and this is now.<br><br>Which leads me to the last part of your inquiry.<br><br>The Coliseum has been neglected because the Coliseum Authority has no money, the practical result of its keen management strategy of giving away the store for decades. Yes, the Coliseum has two tenants and they, theoretically, should provide enough dough to accommodate building improvements. But that assumes the tenants have been paying adequate rent. That is not the case.</p>
<p>Without a lengthy historical or political analysis, I'll just say this: Since the Raiders return from Los Angeles, the A's and the Raiders have essentially double-teamed the Coliseum to gain a series of very favorable lease deals. (The Raiders...don't get me started!) Without adequate rents, the Authority has attempted to cover the financial drain by borrowing. Well, we all know how that story ends. The revenue the Coliseum does get covers debt service and admin costs. There is nothing left over for property improvements. The Authority is broke, its worn-out facilities are probably beyond restoration, and all its tenants are trying to leave town, anyway.<br><br>A cautionary tale if ever there was one.</p>
https://www.athleticsnation.com/2013/11/9/5084736/2013-offseason-mailbag-3-coliseum-lease-and-new-video-boardsD.L. Nelson2013-11-05T08:40:13-08:002013-11-05T08:40:13-08:002013 Offseason Mailbag #2: Tweak or Re-model?
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<img alt="In the next frame, he shatters and Clay Wood sweeps him up into a dust bin" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/XeJwG0q7bsHu9vErvfXI6NKTeYI=/0x4:1000x671/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/22526867/125692044.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>In the next frame, he shatters and Clay Wood sweeps him up into a dust bin | Thearon W. Henderson</figcaption>
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<p>Another great set of questions! Again, keep them coming to athleticsnationmailbag [at] gmail [dot] com. Here they are this week:</p> <p></p>
<p><i>Given how close we were to advancing further in the playoffs, what moves do you see the A's FO making this hot stove season? Will it be simply a tweak, or do you see a remodel?</i></p>
<p>The fact of the matter is that the A's were a 96 win team that had the bad luck of running into a Detroit rotation that was historically good by some measurements. With the exception of <span>Bartolo Colon</span>, the core of this A's team is relatively young, and signed through next season. I fully expect the A's to compete again in 2014. Given that, I don't think Beane is inclined to undertake a team re-model, unless of course, there is an offer he absolutely cannot refuse. I could see the A's making a run at another starter, medium-term 2B solution, or maybe another bullpen piece, but the team's construction is such that the only moves that upgrade the team significantly would be relatively large.</p>
<p><i>I have always wondered whether some players would be worth bringing back from the past. Billy has tried it a few times in recent years with a few players who were once an integral part of the A's (Giambi, <span>Frank Thomas</span>, <span>Kurt Suzuki</span> come to mind). Are there any players that the A's could target this offseason to get them over the hump? Do you know the whereabouts of players such as <span>Michael Wuertz</span>, <span>Rich Harden</span>, <span>Justin Duchscherer</span>, <span>Dallas Braden</span>, <span>Barry Zito</span>, and <span>Eric Chavez</span> and would any of them be able to help the A's out? </i></p>
<p>Here are the whereabouts of the players you mentioned, so far as I can tell:</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Michael Wuertz - <a href="http://yorkrevolution.com/team/roster/userprofile/45%20Wuertz,%20Michael.html">York Revolution, Atlantic League</a> (independent ball)</p>
<p>Rich Harden - <a href="http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/07/28/twins-release-rich-harden/">released by the Twins in July</a>. Attempting to repair his shoulder with chicken wire and duct tape</p>
<p>Justin Duchscherer - <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/08/orioles-release-justin-duchscherer.html">released by the Orioles in 2011</a></p>
<p>Dallas Braden - <a href="http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2013/4/23/4256044/mlb-rumors-dallas-braden-comeback">Last pitched in April 2011. </a> Lost beard-growing contest to <span>Brian Wilson</span>.</p>
<p>Barry Zito - <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/24176695/giants-decline-2014-club-option-for-barry-zito">Giants declined his 2014 option. </a> Shocker.</p>
<p>Eric Chavez - Free Agent. <a href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.azcentral.com%2Fsports%2Fdiamondbacks%2Farticles%2F20130913arizona-diamondbacks-eric-chavez-is-unsure-if-hell-be-returning.html&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.athleticsnation.com%2F2013%2F11%2F5%2F5068980%2F2013-offseason-mailbag-2-tweak-or-re-model-and-oldies-but-goodies" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Could return to Arizona.</a></p>
<p> </p>
<p>The problem with older players is that they are often past their prime. In these cases, past their prime is an understatement. Out of those six players, only two are MLB caliber still (Zito and Chavez), and even so, are likely to be bit pieces on the teams they sign with. They have no place on the A's, and it wouldn't shock me if either retired. More appropriate than oldies but goodies would be oldies and bad.</p>
<p>As far as other players the A's could target who have been with the team before, David O'Brien reported yesterday that the A's were contact with <span>Tim Hudson</span>:</p>
<p><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>8 teams have contacted <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23<a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.talkingchop.com/">Braves</a>&amp;src=hash">#Braves</a> FA pitcher Hudson, including <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Red Sox</a>, <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/">Giants</a>, A&#39;s, <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.lonestarball.com/">Rangers</a>. ATL made him 1-yr offer (not qualifying offer)</p>&mdash; David O&#39;Brien (@ajcbraves) <a href="https://twitter.com/ajcbraves/statuses/397437838829965312">November 4, 2013</a></blockquote><br><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>He is someone remaining from the early 2000s glory days who is still a potentially useful pitcher. He should also be fully recovered from that horrific ankle injury he suffered at the hands of Eric Young. Jr. <span></span> late in the year. On other hand, Colon has had a better season more recently than Hudson, and has shown interest in his returning himself. I'd say Hudson would be a Plan B should Colon not ultimately re-sign with the A's.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>If your question has yet to be answered - never fear. We will attempt to answer all of them (although we may consolidate some questions that belong together). The offseason is long and there is plenty of time to get through everything!</p>
<p></p>
https://www.athleticsnation.com/2013/11/5/5068980/2013-offseason-mailbag-2-tweak-or-re-model-and-oldies-but-goodiesAlan Torres2013-10-29T09:44:24-07:002013-10-29T09:44:24-07:002013 Offseason Mailbag #1: Crisp and Other Options
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<img alt="Coco ponders his future in Oakand and tomorrow's hairstyle" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/FD6VerZ0omBofrSVXUW0ZxeyfrY=/0x0:3999x2666/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/21988601/20131017_ter_st3_502.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Coco ponders his future in Oakand and tomorrow's hairstyle | Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We got great response on this first ask for mailbag questions. Indeed, these submissions are only from two people and there are several more. Please keep them up! Again, the email address for them is athleticsnationmailbag@gmail.com. Don’t be shy.</p> <p></p>
<p><i>Coco says he wants a longer term deal, Beane has said picking up his option is a no-brainer. Any thoughts on the A's getting Coco for more than a year?</i></p>
<p>Crisp's current contract has a $7.5M club option that is all but certain to be picked up. Indeed, given his level of production last year and (relative) health, it will probably be a bargain.</p>
<p>An extension from that, however - at least this year - seems unlikely. Historically, the A's are not big on extending players who are into their free agent years. In fact, I cannot remember the last time the A's extended a player they had acquired in free agency. Even a guy like Bartolo Colon, who even at 40 years old is a decent bet to have a league average pitching line next season and who the team retained control over the entire year was not offered an extension during the season. The players in recent memory who were signed to extensions even, Trevor Cahill and Kurt Suzuki, both found themselves shipped out in relatively short order. That said, with Cahill, in retrospect, it is pretty clear the A's signed him to a reasonable deal with an eye towards being able to leverage that cost control in a future trade.</p>
<p>Whether it is a prudent deal to make with respect to re-signing Crisp as far as his numbers are concerned is also largely dependent on how he performs in 2014. He hit a career-high 22 HRs last year, but his 21 stolen bases dropped off dramatically from 39 in 2012 and 49 in 2011. His game is evolving as he loses some quickness (though still a stolen base threat and an excellent baserunner in general), and it remains to be seen how his numbers follow. All that said, Crisp's current contract is a bargain for the 6.5 wins he has brought over the life of it. Indeed, Crisp is somewhat of a perennially underrated player, whose early-career penchant for injuries has stuck with him since. It's not without merit, of course, as he only played in 131 games last year and his 136 in 2011 are a high for him with the A's. Given that, any Crisp extension would price in his injury risk.</p>
<p><i>Do the A's trade away Milone/Griffin/Anderson/Straily to bring in another offensive weapon if they sign Scott Kazmir? Their depth at starting pitching is incredible, but none are the absolute number 1's except Parker/Gray/Colon.</i></p>
<p><i> </i></p>
<p>I don't see any way that the A's trade one of their younger starters for an offensive weapon. In general, it is unclear what kind of value each starter actually has as part of a package to bring in a youthful offensive player. More than that, even, is as the A's are constructed, the only upgrades that may make a meaningful impact are big upgrades. Big upgrades mean trading away a lot of talent, so potentially two of the starters listed there That's why<a target="_blank" href="http://www.athleticsnation.com/2013/10/22/4866224/free-agent-target-scott-kazmir"> I think Scott Kazmir makes sense</a>, because he has number two starter potential.</p>
<p>Addressing each starter in the sequence you listed, it is unclear what kind of value Milone has. There is a decent case to be made that he is significantly helped by the Coliseum's vast expanse; indeed, he has even said that he feels more confident pitching at home. The same could be said for Griffin, and he has shown a penchant for giving up home runs. Anderson is of questionable health, and may ultimately be a late-inning reliever down the road. What's more, when it comes to Anderson, he is at the nadir of his value right now, even with two club options remaining. Finally, for Straily, his value is up in the air. He has a minor league pedigree for strikeouts, but doesn't have the kind of major league success would be needed to truly make trading him worthwhile.</p>
<p><i>Does Scott Sizemore contribute at 2nd base in 2014? If so, where does that leave Callaspo/Sogard/(and potentially Jemile Weeks and Nakajima...)?</i></p>
<p><i> </i></p>
<p>As much as I like Sizemore, I think he is the odd guy this winter and likely ends up non-tendered. Between Sogard, Callaspo (if he stays), and Weeks and Nakajima, the A's have several 2B options that will slot in either Oakland or Sacramento.</p>
<p><i>Does the A's pick up Chris Young's option, or drop it and make Choice the 4th/5th outfielder on the depth chart? Obviously Smith would be up there on the DH/outfielder as well.</i></p>
<p><i> </i></p>
<p>There is about the same chance of the A's picking up Chris Young's option as the Cardinals winning the World Series in six games. It seems clear Michael Choice will be given every opportunity to take that 4th/5th outfielder role.</p>
<p><i>What happens to John Jaso with the presence of Suzuki, the rise of Vogt, and Norris? Trade-city for new prospects...?</i></p>
<p><i> </i></p>
<p>Jaso is a much better offensive player than any of the other options listed. If he doesn't catch, he should DH or (learn to) play 1B depending on that day's matchups. He's a poorer man's Mike Napoli, but a little worse and better hair. Given what we heard about his progress during the ALDS, it appears he will also have recovered from his concussion by Spring Training.</p>
<p>Vogt did showcase himself well, so it's not hard to see him being packaged away for some younger talent, albeit someone very raw, low-level, or both. Otherwise, I would expect him to start at AAA as insurance for a Norris or Jaso injury. It is hard to see how Kurt Suzuki fits in. The A's will almost certainly decline his $8.5M option and pay him the buyout, and he will likely depart via free agency.</p>
<p></p>
https://www.athleticsnation.com/2013/10/29/5042776/2013-offseason-mailbag-1-crisp-and-other-optionsAlan Torres2013-10-24T08:05:22-07:002013-10-24T08:05:22-07:00The Return of the Athletics Nation Mailbag
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<figcaption>USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>We have a mailbag! Remember?!</p> <p></p>
<p>In case you've forgotten (and judging by the dearth of submissions, you have!) Athletics Nation has a mailbag. Periodically, myself and other front page writers will tackle your burning questions. And your ice cold ones, too.</p>
<p>You can look at the mailbag history <a target="_blank" href="http://www.athleticsnation.com/2012/11/26/3693494/introducing-the-an-mailbag">here</a>. There's been some quality work done there, I have to say.</p>
<p>The address is <a href="mailto:athleticsnationmailbag@gmail.com">athleticsnationmailbag@gmail.com</a>. Ideally, this would be a weekly event where we answer your questions, but it all depends on your submissions. In other words, if there are no submissions, there's no mailbag and myself and the other front page writers will pull a Rogers Hornsby:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In modern times, it's something like watching second-tier sports and crappy TV dramas, but you get the picture. This place is a lot better when we have topics to debate.</p>
<p>So, please send in your questions and the offseason will be much shorter.</p>
<p></p>
https://www.athleticsnation.com/2013/10/24/5024342/the-return-of-the-athletics-nation-mailbagAlan Torres2013-03-11T12:00:50-07:002013-03-11T12:00:50-07:00AN Mailbag #9: What Could Go Wrong?
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<img alt="Moss was trying to hit the camera, but it was juuuust a bit outside." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ahMbqz_s8Kfyhe1BklI1e5akLyM=/0x6:4000x2673/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/8893733/162042527.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Moss was trying to hit the camera, but it was juuuust a bit outside. | Christian Petersen</figcaption>
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<p>This is an article all about things which could go wrong for Oakland this season. And it's Monday. Man, I'm a jerk.</p> <p>Welcome back to the AN Mailbag! (athleticsnationmailbag@gmail.com). Today's question, from Erik in Fremont, addresses the giant elephant in the room. No, not Stomper. The <i>figurative</i> elephant in the room.</p>
<p><i>"The more and more I look at the lineup, bullpen, and starting staff, the more and more I'm convinced that this is a wholly better team than last year's. Also, looking at a schedule where nearly a quarter of it is against Houston or Seattle, I can't help but be optimistic. Other than injuries, what could hold this team back from reaching 90+ wins again? What I mean to say is, what deficiency, if any, is most likely to cause a slip from last season? Or do you see our biggest obstacle as an improved Angels team and a vastly improved AL from top to bottom (Toronto, Kansas City, Cleveland, Boston)."</i></p>
<p>Look, Oakland had a great run last year. A bunch of guys came out of nowhere to have awesome seasons. Some of those success stories had solid track records or prospect pedigrees behind them, and some were completely unexpected for a variety of different reasons. Granted, Billy Beane spent the offseason acquiring above-average players to fill the weak parts of his lineup, but every baseball team, no matter how well-constructed, has a list of things which could cause it all go to pear-shaped. Today, we're going to look at three of the top things which could go wrong for Oakland. As Erik noted in his question, we are going to avoid talking about injuries. Sure, some guys are more injury-prone than others, but we all understand that any player could theoretically go down at any time with a season-ending injury. These things happen.</p>
<p>I promise that I'm not doing this to be a dick. I'm doing this to keep us grounded, and to keep our expectations realistic. I like this Oakland roster, but sometimes, things just don't work out like you think they will - remember, the 2011 Red Sox <a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-qp8jhJSka0E/TZSmpMYr8MI/AAAAAAAACT8/AvaiA0KIVOo/s1600/red%2Bsox%2Bbest%2Bteam%2Bin%2Bbaseball%2B2011.jpg" target="_blank">didn't even make the playoffs</a>. Also, Erik's the one who asked the question, so if anyone's a dick then it's him.</p>
<p><b>1. Josh Reddick and/or Brandon Moss might have been flukes.</b></p>
<p>Reddick and Moss both came out of nowhere last year, more or less. Reddick was supposed to be a light-hitting corner outfielder with plus defense, and instead he hit 30 homers and won a Gold Glove. Moss was a career minor-leaguer, and then randomly slugged .596 in a half-season in the Coliseum while also learning a new position.</p>
<p>Back in October, Nico walked through some <a href="http://www.athleticsnation.com/2012/10/28/3565370/what-can-we-expect-from-josh-reddick-next-season" target="_blank">reasonable expectations for Reddick</a>, and came up with a line of .267/.335/.450 with 23 homers. I think that sounds very fair - I agree that I don't think he'll hit 30 homers again, and I have a good feeling that he'll bring his average up into the .260 range, where he spent most of last season until his sharp September slump (remember, it was his first full season in the bigs). What if he does lose the power and doesn't bring the average back up, though? That could happen if he continues his free-swinging ways and pitchers find a couple of weaknesses to consistently exploit. And if his line looks more like .240/.300/.425? Sure, he'll still be an above-average player with his Gold Glove defense (there is no reason to believe that his defense isn't for real), but he'll no longer be a guy whom you build your lineup around.</p>
<p>Nico struck again in December, taking a look at <a href="http://www.athleticsnation.com/2012/12/2/3714918/on-brandon-moss-regression" target="_blank">Brandon Moss and regression</a>. This time he came up with a line of .240/.320/.500 with 28 homers and 200 K's, which pretty much sums up my thoughts on the matter as well. The power is definitely for real, and, as Nico said in his post, "It's hard for me to imagine Moss getting 500 AB's and not hitting 25+ homers." That is, if Moss makes enough contact to merit a full season's worth of playing time, then he's going to get his dingers. That's the problem, though - is he going to make enough contact? <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/offense/rate-stats/" target="_blank">Fangraphs</a> has a chart in its glossary which provides context for K% (percentage of plate appearances in which the player struck out):</p>
<p> </p>
<table border="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td>Rating</td>
<td>K%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Average</td>
<td>18.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Below Average</td>
<td>20%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Poor</td>
<td>25%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Awful</td>
<td>27.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Have you considered being a pitcher?</td>
<td>30%</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p> </p>
<p>Moss's K% last year was 30.4%. Yikes. At least there is precedent for 1st basemen becoming pitchers in this organization.</p>
<p>Couple that strikeout rate with a Contact% of 67% (league-average is 81%) and last year's .359 BABIP, and you start to realize why there is concern about Moss's ability to keep his average up. Just as with Reddick, pitchers will have a full season to root out Moss's weaknesses. If he fails to adjust, and/or those hits don't fall in like they did last year, then that .291 batting average might creep down closer to his pre-2012 career mark of .236. His league-average walk rate from 2012 (8.8%) could rise if his power forces pitchers to work around him more, but if he starts chasing too many pitches then a line of .235/.305/.475 might not be out of the question. A .780 OPS would probably clock in above league-average in the Coliseum, but it would be a far cry from the .954 that he put up last year.</p>
<p>Although Reddick's final line last year included a .768 OPS, I think that most of us picture the .832 OPS slugger he was at the end of August when we stare into his lush, untamed beard. What if he turns out to be a .732 OPS hitter instead? And sure, we all expect Moss to fall off at least a bit after his ridiculous 2012, but what if he falls off a <i>lot</i>? It could happen, folks. Just saying.</p>
<p><b>2. Infield depth may not result in infield quality.</b></p>
<p>There has been a lot of talk this winter about the depth that Billy Beane has built in the infield. He's given Bob Melvin a wealth of options and the ability to mix and match the roles of versatile players. However, the question remains: Will the quantity of players also add up to quality production?</p>
<p>The closer you look at the projected infield, the easier it is to see how things could go wrong here. Weeks and Sizemore have both demonstrated a half-season of tantalizing, above-average hitting, but have also struggled enough to cast doubt on those brief runs of success. If Hiro Nakajima becomes even a league-average hitter, then he will become the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_players_from_Japan" target="_blank">first infielder from Japan</a> ever to do so in MLB history. A's fans better hope that he makes that kind of history, because his counterpart, Jed Lowrie, can't be counted on for a full season until he actually plays one. Furthermore, Lowrie's poor range in the field has already garnered negative attention, leading to questions about how well he has recovered from a serious leg injury last year. Grant Green looks like a serious hitter, but he'll have to find a home on defense in order to get his bat in the lineup.</p>
<p>That brings us to Josh Donaldson. I am all about the guy, and you should be too. But if you're looking at him like a sure thing, then you're fooling yourself. He was mind-numbingly bad in the 1st half last year, and it's impossible to know how much of his 2nd half resurgence was for real. I have reasons to believe that it was, which mostly revolve around him getting out from behind the plate <i>and then</i> getting comfortable at his new position (two-part process). That doesn't make it a reality, though. The Rainmaker is failing to make it rain so far this spring, although it can't be ignored that he homered twice in the game which got rained out (did he <i>bring</i> the rain, or did the rain just unlock his dormant super-strength?). Reports have suggested that he is killing the ball and getting BABIP-unlucky in a small sample size, but you have to prepare yourself for the possibility that Donaldson was a fluke last year.</p>
<p>The whole point of the infield depth is to allow for these kinds of worst-case scenarios. With multiple options at each position, Melvin can absorb a couple of disappointing players and still put out a good lineup. But buying 100 lottery tickets instead of 10 doesn't necessarily mean that you're going to win the jackpot. Out of all of the options, Melvin will <i>probably</i> find three good infielders in 2013, but it wouldn't take a lot of imagination to see how Oakland could be scrambling for help at the trade deadline. It could happen, folks. Just saying.</p>
<p><b>3. The top relievers may regress sharply.</b></p>
<p>On last week's <a href="http://phillipnaessens.wordpress.com/2013/03/08/the-phil-naessens-show-3-8-2013-oakland-as-minnesota-twins-new-york-mets-and-los-angeles-dodgers-weekly-reports/" target="_blank">Phil Naessens Show podcast</a>, I voiced my concerns about Oakland's bullpen and whether or not it can match its 2012 performance. Oakland's bullpen posted a 2.94 ERA last year, good for 4th in the Majors. Fantastic! However, that same bullpen posted only a 3.74 FIP (<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/pitching/fip/" target="_blank">Fielding Independent Pitching</a>), good for 15th in the Majors. In short, ERA measures what a pitcher did in the past, and FIP strives to predict what that pitcher will do in the future by looking only at the things which a pitcher can control: strikeouts, walks, HBP's, and home runs. FIP suggests that the bullpen outperformed its abilities pretty significantly last year.</p>
<p>Furthermore, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/pitching/xfip/" target="_blank">xFIP</a> is a stat which measures exactly what FIP does, but uses the league-average home run rate due to the fact that home-run rate (homers per fly ball) fluctuates significantly and generally shouldn't be trusted in single-year samples. This stat hates Oakland's 2012 bullpen even more, ranking it 27th in the Majors with a 4.20 mark; it believes that Oakland got a bit lucky with its MLB-best HR-per-flyball rate, and is due for regression back toward average. It should be noted that xFIP might be wrong here - Oakland has been in the top 3 in MLB in HR/FB in 6 of the last 7 years, so the Coliseum may be a factor in consistently suppressing homers. However, another predictive metric, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/pitching/siera/" target="_blank">SIERA</a>, ranks Oakland 25th in the Majors. You can see the pattern forming.</p>
<p>So, who are the main culprits in this potentially overrated bullpen?</p>
<p> </p>
<table border="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td>Player</td>
<td>ERA</td>
<td>FIP</td>
<td>xFIP</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Grant Balfour</td>
<td>2.53</td>
<td>3.03</td>
<td>3.83</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Ryan Cook</td>
<td>2.09</td>
<td>2.89</td>
<td>3.48</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Sean Doolittle</td>
<td>3.04</td>
<td>2.08</td>
<td>3.02</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jerry Blevins</td>
<td>2.48</td>
<td>4.21</td>
<td>4.48</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p> </p>
<p>Let's start at the top. Grant Balfour put up an awesome season in 2012, becoming a closer for the first time in his career and setting the all-time record for saves* while enjoying a 92.3% success rate. We know that Balfour is good, but is he <i>that</i> good? His high xFIP suggests that his low HR rate isn't to be trusted - to illustrate that point, in 2011 he allowed homers on 11% of his fly balls, and in 2012 that rate shot down to 5.3%, with a league-average of 9.5% for context. His ERA and FIP are almost identical for his career, so he's not a Matt Cain type who consistently "beats" FIP. Oakland fans should brace themselves for at least a small dropoff from their 35-year-old closer who set a career high in innings last year.</p>
<p>Next, I look at Ryan Cook. Whereas I expect a small step back from Balfour, I am genuinely worried about Cook. I just have a bad feeling that he is going to struggle in 2013. Even last year, he was prone to meltdowns - say what you will about the "blown save" stat, but Cook racked up 7 of them last year in his various late-inning duties. His All-Star first half was fueled by the fact that he didn't allow a single homer in 38 innings, a performance which proved to be unsustainable when he went on to allow 4 dingers in 35 second half innings (note: that's not a bad rate, just average, which is a step back from "All-Star"). His half-season splits are worth a look, as well:</p>
<p>1st half - 1.41 ERA, 39/21 K/BB, 0 homers, .103 BAA<br>2nd half - 2.83 ERA, 41/6 K/BB, 4 homers, .221 BAA</p>
<p>In the first half, Cook got small-sample lucky in homers and opponents' batting average (BAA), but was also fairly wild to make up for it. In the 2nd half, he stayed in the strike zone and shot his K/BB rate into Rivera territory, but the hits started to fall in at a more normal rate and a few balls left the yard. If Cook's 2nd half is for real, then he's still an excellent setup man, but he's no longer the unhittable menace who made the All-Star team. If the walk rate also creeps back up a bit, or he gets hit-unlucky, or he has a sophomore slump after a heavy rookie workload, then that ERA could go above 3. Last year, Cook looked like a future closer. I'm unconvinced that he will still look that way at the end of 2013.</p>
<p>I don't think that anyone expects Jerry Blevins to repeat his 2012 performance. That's not to say that he'll stink, but when you outperform your career ERA by a run and a half, and your xFIP by two full runs, then there's a good chance that you just had your career year and are due for a slide back. If Blevins puts up a 3.50 ERA this year, then he'll still be good. He just won't be one of the go-to cogs of an elite bullpen like he was last year.</p>
<p>There is good news! Sean Doolittle might be for real. FIP actually loves him, and even if you assume that he'll give up a couple more homers this year, xFIP still thinks that his performance was repeatable. Of course, there is so little data to go on that it's tough to make predictions about him. Furthermore, the league hasn't had a full season to figure him out and adjust to him, so there is still the chance for decline in that way.</p>
<p>The A's pitching staff relied on Balfour, Cook, Doolittle and Blevins to do some serious heavy lifting last year. They were up to the challenge in 2012, and each one of them <i>could </i>be just as good in 2013. However, relievers are notoriously volatile from year to year, and it's far more likely that at least one of them will fall off (or get injured, but we're ignoring that for now) and fail to repeat his previous success. What if two or three of those four fall off, though? Will Beane's insane bullpen depth be able to replace their <i>quality</i> of performance in high-leverage situations? Will someone like Hideki Okajima or Mike Ekstrom step up to become that consistent lights-out guy at the end of the game if Cook and Blevins can't handle it? We should at least prepare ourselves for the possibility that they won't.</p>
<p>It could happen, folks. Just saying.</p>
<p> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 8.5pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">*by an Australian</span><span style="font-size: 8.5pt;"></span></p>
https://www.athleticsnation.com/2013/3/11/4042216/an-mailbag-8-worst-case-reddick-moss-nakajima-donaldson-balfour-cook-blevinsAlex Hall