Elephant Rumblings: What does 100 losses even get you in 2022?

Happy Thursday, Athletics Nation!

The season is winding up and with their 54th win of the season on Tuesday, the A’s guaranteed the fact that they can’t have the worst season in Oakland history. With the 1979 A’s going 54-108 the worst that could happen is a tied record, if every remaining game this year is a loss. But at this point it seems certain that the 2022 Athletics are a 100+ loss team, however unsurprising it is for those of us who follow the team daily.

With this year’s new CBA there’s less of an incentive to be the worst in the league. No longer does 30th place net you the first overall draft pick in the following year. Now the A’s look to be tied with the MLB-worst Nationals (52-97) and Pirates (55-93) in sharing the best odds of the #1 pick in 2023. The three teams with the worst records all share a 16.5% chance of the top pick, and 4th-worst ahas a 13.25% chance.

The lottery extends backwards all the way to the top team that doesn’t make the playoffs. That’s right, the A’s could lose over 100 games in 2022, and there’s a chance (though impossibly slim) that a playoff-cusp team with a winning record like the Brewers could pick before them. Each missed pick does make things more increasingly-likely that the worst-performing teams pick early, softening missing out on the absolute top of the draft.

With just 13 games remaining, we will see if the A’s hang in that best-chance bottom three, or if they rise in the ranks and lower their percentages.

A’s Coverage

• Brener: Game #149: Mariners vs A’s
• Kawahara: Where do Oakland’s mayoral hopefuls stand on a new A’s ballpark? ($)
• Rosenstein: Ex-Yankees prospect appears to be new closer for A’s
• Slusser: Ex-A’s starter Jharel Cotton joins Giants, says S.F. is ‘the place to be’
• Brazil: Howard Terminal deal: NEXT WEEK deadline? (video)
• The Athletic Staff: Yankees starter Frankie Montas placed on 15-day IL with right shoulder inflammation ($)

MLB News & Interest

• Doolittle: With ‘a gap right now between where we are and where we expected to be,’ Kansas City Royals fire Dayton Moore
• McCullough, Rosenthal: Royals fire Dayton Moore as president of baseball operations ($)
• ESPN: Three-time champ Buster Posey becomes first former player to join San Francisco Giants ownership group
• AP: New York Mets set MLB record with 106 hit batters in 2022
• Szymborski: Will Aaron Judge Get His $300 Million Deal?
• Today in Baseball History

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