Elephant Rumblings: Draft Lottery coming next week

Happy Friday, Athletics Nation!

Winter Meetings commence next week in San Diego, and I’m crossing my fingers that the A’s will get lucky in the first MLB Draft Lottery, which takes place on Tuesday. Martin Gallegos at MLB.com summarized the lottery procedures, each team’s odds of winning the top pick, and some top prospects who might be taken early by the lucky winners.

Prior to the latest Collective Bargaining Agreement, draft picks were assigned to teams in order from those with the least to those with the most wins during the regular season. Under the new CBA, picks are assigned according to the new lottery system as a disincentive for teams to tank. But wins and losses will remain a significant determinant of the draft order.

Under the old system, the A’s would receive the second pick. Now, they will have a 16.5% chance of scoring the top pick and a 15.6% chance at the second pick, according to Tankathon. This means that the new system will more likely than not prove disadvantageous to the A’s draft position relative to the old system—but it also leaves an opening for the A’s to get their first number one pick since 1965.

Jonathan Mayo at MLB.com took a stab at predicting the top three picks, and put forward outfielder Dylan Crews of Louisiana State, pitcher Chase Dollander of Tennessee, and outfielder Max Clark from Indiana’s Franklin Community High School, in that order. Tankathon indicates that the A’s have a 46.6% chance at a top three pick and a 71.4% chance at a top five pick. The worst case scenario (2.8% odds) is an eighth pick.

So how do you like our chances, AN? And who should the A’s be Gunnar-ing for? Type your thoughts into the comment form below!

A’s Coverage:

• Gallegos: This event a central focus for A’s at Winter Meetings
• Franco: Guardians Showing Continued Interest In Sean Murphy
• McDonald: Nationals Sign Franklin Barreto To Minors Deal
• Burke: What a Sean Murphy Trade to Cleveland Could Look Like
• Gallegos: A’s aim to make most of Winter Meetings return

MLB News & Interest:

• Shea: Gaylord Perry, MLB’s spitball artist and Hall of Fame pitcher, dead at 84 ($)
• Franco: MLB Sells Remaining BAMTech Share To Disney
• Adams: Latest On Yankees’ Offer To Aaron Judge
• Franco: Padres, Diamondbacks Among Teams Interested In Xander Bogaerts
• McDonald: Phillies Reportedly Have Trea Turner As Top Priority
• Franco: Blue Jays Hire Don Mattingly As Bench Coach
• McDonald: Yasiel Puig Changes Plea To Not Guilty In Gambling Case
• Passan: What 2022-23 MLB free agency so far means for the winter meetings
• Today in Baseball History

Best of Twitter:

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I wonder if I’d notice.