clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Elephant Rumblings: Draft Lottery coming next week

MLB news roundup

Toronto Blue Jays v Baltimore Orioles - Game One Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images

Happy Friday, Athletics Nation!

Winter Meetings commence next week in San Diego, and I’m crossing my fingers that the A’s will get lucky in the first MLB Draft Lottery, which takes place on Tuesday. Martin Gallegos at summarized the lottery procedures, each team’s odds of winning the top pick, and some top prospects who might be taken early by the lucky winners.

Prior to the latest Collective Bargaining Agreement, draft picks were assigned to teams in order from those with the least to those with the most wins during the regular season. Under the new CBA, picks are assigned according to the new lottery system as a disincentive for teams to tank. But wins and losses will remain a significant determinant of the draft order.

Under the old system, the A’s would receive the second pick. Now, they will have a 16.5% chance of scoring the top pick and a 15.6% chance at the second pick, according to Tankathon. This means that the new system will more likely than not prove disadvantageous to the A’s draft position relative to the old system—but it also leaves an opening for the A’s to get their first number one pick since 1965.

Jonathan Mayo at took a stab at predicting the top three picks, and put forward outfielder Dylan Crews of Louisiana State, pitcher Chase Dollander of Tennessee, and outfielder Max Clark from Indiana’s Franklin Community High School, in that order. Tankathon indicates that the A’s have a 46.6% chance at a top three pick and a 71.4% chance at a top five pick. The worst case scenario (2.8% odds) is an eighth pick.

So how do you like our chances, AN? And who should the A’s be Gunnar-ing for? Type your thoughts into the comment form below!

A’s Coverage:

MLB News & Interest:

Best of Twitter:

Anyone? Bueller?

This legend pitched about four million innings...RIP Gaylord Perry.

Ken Korach is an NSMA Sportscaster finalist!

Lots of love for the Chronicle on the print side.

Barreto gets a new contract...

...and a solid vote of confidence.

I wonder if I’d notice.