The lockout is dull. I was bored during this transaction freeze, so I thought I would try and imagine a best-case version of the ’22 Athletics. For this, I set team payroll at $ 65 M. This would be a cut from 2019-21, and slightly less than the $ 68 M the A's started with in 2018. I don't know how the payroll negotiations are going "in real life". But I believe this hypothetical allows for the A's to still tear down to a bare bones $ 50 M payroll if the team is under-preforming, because fringe contenders will always overpay for assets at the deadline. I used fangraphs steamer projections for this hypothetical because I couldn’t think of anything better. I also used the MLB trade rumors salary and arb estimates when applicable- although I expect the major league minimum to increase by Opening Day.
One key variable in this is trades. Maybe I picked all the wrong free agents the A's would target- but my goal is to create a hypothetical where the A's wind up in a position to scare the Astros from their expected perch in first place. My goal was not to exactly predict what the A's should or will do. I am not even remotely qualified. If the A's still wanted to break their record for lowest payroll, I have created a situation where they have about $ 20 M to spend on the open market for soft tossing relievers, a right handed bat in the outfield, and Brett Anderson.
In this hypothetical, most of the impact prospects in the A's system are completely off limits. As I believe they should be. The minor league system only improves in a minor fashion- adding back the depth the A's shed during previous trade deadlines sort of, but no 50 FV talent... yet. So what are my potential trades?
White Sox get: C. Bassitt, S. Piscotty
A's get: Gavin Sheets, DJ Gladney, Matt Foster
I would be a little peeved if the A's packaged Piscotty with one of their best assets, to depreciate their value. But the White Sox could exchange Sheets here for a veteran hitter, who put up average numbers when healthy. They get OF flexibility and another ace, while the A's get three players with team control.
Padres get: S. Manaea
A's get: Chris Paddack, Brandon Valenzuela, Esteury Ruiz
The Padres here get an ace rental and short term major improvement over Paddack. The A's get two prospects in positions of need and one major league ready starter projected for 1+ fWAR next year.
Catcher
Player Name | salary est | proj fWAR | +/- 2021 |
Sean Murphy | Min. | 3.0 | -0.3 |
Austin Allen | Min. | 1.1 | +0.8 |
Christian Bethancourt | Min. | 0 | 0 |
First Base
Player Name | salary est | proj fWAR | +/- 2021 |
Matt Olson | $ 12 M | 4.6 | -0.4 |
Second Base
Player Name | Salary Est | proj fWAR | +/- 2021 |
Tony Kemp | $ 2.25 M | 2.1 | -0.6 |
Vimael Machin | Min | 0.3 |
Short Stop
Player Name | Salary Est | proj fWAR | +/- 2021 |
Elvis Andrus | $ 6.75 M | 1.2 | +0.1 |
Nick Allen |
Min |
0.3 |
+0.7 |
Third Base
Player Name | Est Salary | Proj fWAR | +/- 2021 |
Matt Chapman | $ 9.5 M | 3.5 | +0.1 |
LF
Player Name | Est Salary | Proj fWAR | +/- 2021 |
Gavin Sheets |
Min |
1.0 |
-1.6 |
Luis Barrera |
Min |
0 |
|
Tony Kemp |
$ 2.25 M |
2.1 |
CF
Player Name | Est Salary | Proj fWAR | +/- 2021 |
Ramon Laureano | $ 2.8 M | 2.9 | +0.8 |
Luis Barrera |
Min |
0 | -2.1 |
RF
Player Name | Est Salary | Proj fWAR | +/- 2021 |
Chad Pinder |
$ 2.725 M |
1.4 |
0 |
Seth Brown |
Min |
0 |
-0.4 |
Gavin Sheets |
Min |
1.0 |
DH
Player Name | Est Salary | Proj fWAR | +/- 2021 |
Austin Allen |
Min |
1.1 | +0.2 |
Jed Lowrie |
$ 1.25 M |
0.9 |
+1.1 |
SP
Player Name | est. Salary | Proj fWAR | +/- 2021 |
Frankie Montas |
$ 5 M |
2.8 | -0.5 |
Martin Perez |
$ 5 M |
1.2 |
-2.1 |
James Kaprielian | Min |
1.1 |
-2.9 |
Chris Paddack |
Min |
1.1 |
-0.4 |
Cole Irvin |
Min |
0.9 |
-0.5 |
Any of this group not cut it? Jefferies, Puk, Blackburn, Honeywell Jr. and Howard can all slot in.
Bullpen
Player Name | est. Salary | Proj. fWAR | +/- 2021 |
AJ Puk |
Min |
0.6 | |
Matt Foster |
Min |
0.3 | |
Jesse Chavez |
$ 575 K |
0.2 | |
Matt Strahm |
$ 1.9 M |
0.2 | |
Deolis Guerra | $ 815 K | 0.1 | |
Lou Trivino | $ 2.9 M | 0 |
I'm leaving the +/- from 2021 empty because How Can Hell Be Any Worse? There are only 6 spots listed because I believe the A's can get two solid relievers out of this group: Sam Moll, Justin Grimm, Grant Holmes, Dany Jimenez, Zack Erwin, Aaron Brown, Brady Fiegl, Adam Kolarek, Ryan Castellani, Trey Supak. If that group combines for 0.5 fWAR, the A's are "back in it". If you have more faith in this group than I do, then the A's don't need to dole out $ 1.9 M to Strahm.
Total arbitration/free agent number: $ 47 M (a savings of about $ 20 M).
May lineup vs. RHP
Player Name | vs. RHP | proj. wRC+ |
4-Tony Kemp | .290 | 109 |
3-Matt Olson | .271 | 140 |
5-Matt Chapman | .201 | 107 |
DH-Austin Allen | ? | 97 |
9- Seth Brown | .220 | 94 |
2- Sean Murphy | .227 | 99 |
8- Ramon Laureano | .217 | 111 |
7-Gavin Sheets | .268 | 111 |
6-Elvis Andrus |
.269 | 86 |
May lineup vs. LHP
Player Name | vs. LHP | proj. wRC+ |
8-Luis Barrera |
? | 81 |
3-Matt Olson | .270 | 140 |
7-Ramon Laureano | .304 | 111 |
9- Chad Pinder | .291 | 104 |
DH-Jed Lowrie | .257 | 99 |
5- Matt Chapman |
.228 | 107 |
C- Sean Murphy |
.194 | 104 |
6- Nick Allen |
? | 77 |
4- Vimael Machin | ? | 88 |
Both lineups have about 6-7 above league average hitters, an mvp caliber guy no one will pitch to, and two high ceiling electric talents. And three duds. Which shouldn't be a problem if the talented players reach their expectations. Which did not happen in '21.
Every year the A's face two main opponents: a wildly unfair schedule and repercussions from their lack of depth. The later requires higher payroll, and the former is unavoidable. Looking at the A's '22 schedule, the months of June and August involve some head-spinning road trips. Not as dire as the two and a half straight weeks of games to end the '21 season, but it is close.
The A's team I have created has a league average bullpen, better than the '21 team. The rotation takes a significant step back. But it would project to be more valuable than the '18 rotation. The A's have attempted to trade a starter and still compete before, and I believe this is because the Coliseum fixes a lot of errors as a pitcher anyway. Behind them, it's maybe the best defensive team in the league. I agree and disagree with some of the 2022 projections, however I don't want to inject my bias to directly face off against a computer. Only to say, ignoring the projections and looking at the names, I don't have a bad feeling about it.
Especially with the Matt's + pre arb talent + Montas's splitter. While my free agent signings may stink, surely the A's can use $ 20 M to find a league average starter, and two platoon hitters. If even I can find a way where the A's are projected to win 85-88 wins, with some "baseball luck", a wild card appearance in Oakland is possible. What do you think about this team?
Thank you for reading and go Aviators (I mean A's).