## 2021 Athletics Rotation CIRE (Context Independent Run Expectancy) update

Nearly 2 years ago, I created a FanPost calculating this new stat I had created while playing around. To see a more in depth explanation of the practicality and math behind CIRE, you can read that FanPost here.

How has the A's rotation been fairing with this stat? The formula for CIRE= [ORC*(9/IP)] where ORC= (H+W)*TB/(AB+W), or the Bill James runs created formula.

ORC= Opposing Runs Created

MLB ORC= (39481+15794)*66516/(161941+15794)= 20686.26

[20686.26*(9/42615)]= 4.37 CIRE

League ERA= 4.27, so adjusted to ERA, CIRE*.98= xCIRE (Don't know if this is the exact correct way to use "x", but just using it for the sake of differentiation)

Chris Bassitt (3.15 ERA) ORC= (127+39)*203/(583+39)= 54.18

[54.18*(9/157.1)]*.98= 3.03 xCIRE

Frankie Montas (3.37 ERA) ORC= (164+57)*263/(707+57)= 76.08

[76.08*(9/187)]*.98= 3.58 xCIRE

Sean Manaea (3.91 ERA) ORC= (179+41)*291/(702+41)= 86.16

[86.16*(9/179.1)]*.98= 4.23 xCIRE

Cole Irvin (4.22 ERA) ORC= (195+42)*301/(710+42)= 94.86

[94.86*(9/178.1)]*.98= 4.68 xCIRE

James Kaprielian as starter (3.80 ERA) ORC= (96+40)*175/(418+40)= 51.97

[51.97*(9/111.1)]*.98= 4.11 xCIRE