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Despite a scorching mid-month period in which the A’s took 7 out of 10 games from the AL East’s New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, and Toronto Blue Jays, the Oakland A’s offense has been asleep most of May. Jed Lowrie has cooled down, Matt Chapman has seemingly decided that hitting isn’t fun anymore, and Khris Davis was lost (although hopefully only briefly) to the disabled list. One Athletics, however, has perked up and come back to life after a dismal start and all signs point to a much better summer for Matt Olson than his spring thus far.
Through 27 March and April games Olson was batting .257/.342/.376, though mostly thanks to a .390 BABIP. Since then Olson has reversed course, losing 68 points from his batting average and on-base percentage combined, but gaining more than 100 points in his slugging percentage. Matt Olson’s line resembles something of a better-than-average hitter and the power threat the A’s thought they had in hand at the outset of 2018.
Olson’s Improvement
In Mid-April I took stock of where Matt Olson was at in his follow-up to 2017’s power binge. All signs indicated he was still the same slugger he was last season, the only difference being the swing-and-miss part of his game had taken over. Olson sported the league’s worst zone-contact rate and although he was stroking the ball at exit velocities near the top of the leaderboard he just couldn’t do it often enough to matter. That has changed.
Olson’s Plate Discipline: March/April vs. May
| Month(s) | O-Swing% | Z-Swing% | Swing% | O-Contact% | Z-Contact% | Contact% | Zone% | F-Strike% | SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month(s) | O-Swing% | Z-Swing% | Swing% | O-Contact% | Z-Contact% | Contact% | Zone% | F-Strike% | SwStr% |
| March/April | 27.8 % | 64.4 % | 42.8 % | 56.8 % | 65.4 % | 62.1 % | 41.0 % | 53.5 % | 16.2 % |
| May | 26.3 % | 75.4 % | 44.9 % | 74.0 % | 74.1 % | 74.1 % | 37.9 % | 49.5 % | 11.7 % |
His contact rate and zone-contact rate are each up more than 8 points, and despite swinging more often his swinging-strike rate is down 5 points. He is starting to resemble his 2017 self.
Olson’s Plate Discipline: 2017 vs. May, 2018
| Year | O-Swing% | Z-Swing% | Swing% | O-Contact% | Z-Contact% | Contact% | Zone% | F-Strike% | SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | O-Swing% | Z-Swing% | Swing% | O-Contact% | Z-Contact% | Contact% | Zone% | F-Strike% | SwStr% |
| 2017 | 28.3 % | 68.2 % | 44.9 % | 56.3 % | 78.0 % | 70.0 % | 41.6 % | 56.9 % | 13.5 % |
| May, 2018 | 26.3 % | 75.4 % | 44.9 % | 74.0 % | 74.1 % | 74.1 % | 37.9 % | 49.5 % | 11.7 % |
It is no wonder Olson’s productivity has increased as his ability to put the bat on ball has improved.
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Olson has been able to make contact with greater frequency without sacrificing his elite power. His average exit-velocity from March and April nearly matches that of May.
Olson’s Statcast: March/April vs. May
| Month(s) | Avg. Exit Velocity | Avg. Launch Angle | wOBA | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month(s) | Avg. Exit Velocity | Avg. Launch Angle | wOBA | xwOBA |
| March/April | 93.5 MPH | 15.5 deg. | 0.315 | 0.373 |
| May | 94.3 MPH | 16.8 deg. | 0.336 | 0.365 |
Adjustment Period
Is Olson adjusting and timing pitches better? Or is the league adjusting to him and hoping to catch him in his slump? Olson has seen many more fastballs in May than he did in March and April. It appears pitches may be challenging him slightly more, expecting him to miss. Per Statcast:
Olson’s Pitch Type
| Month(s) | Pitch Type | % | Whiff% | wOBA | xwOBA | Avg. Exit Velocity | Avg. Launch Angle | BB% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month(s) | Pitch Type | % | Whiff% | wOBA | xwOBA | Avg. Exit Velocity | Avg. Launch Angle | BB% | K% |
| March/April | Fastballs | 56.5 | 35.0 | 0.347 | 0.367 | 94.3 | 18 | 7.9 | 30.2 |
| May | Fastballs | 64.8 | 29.4 | 0.284 | 0.343 | 95.6 | 22 | 10.7 | 26.8 |
| March/April | Breaking | 26.6 | 45.8 | 0.392 | 0.484 | 90.9 | 8 | 7.4 | 40.7 |
| May | Breaking | 18.6 | 32.4 | 0.400 | 0.369 | 93.3 | 12 | 13.6 | 27.3 |
| March/April | Offspeed | 16.9 | 44.4 | 0.143 | 0.272 | 93.8 | 16 | 9.1 | 36.4 |
| May | Offspeed | 16.5 | 17.1 | 0.396 | 0.408 | 92.7 | 11 | 8 | 8 |
Conclusion
The results aren’t exactly where Olson’s wants them, I’m sure. But he seems to climbing out of the hole which he dug himself into early in 2018 and that is important. Now hopefully we will see Matt Chapman and Stephen Piscotty right the ship and this offense will hopefully start floating again.
