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King Richard's Offseason Plan


King Richard's Offseason Plan

Alright, everyone, here it is! This is how we go all the way in 2019.

Arbitration Eligible players (using MLBTR’s arbitration estimates)

  • Khris Davis – $18.1MM: TENDER
  • Mike Fiers – $9.7MM: NON-TENDER
  • Marcus Semien – $6.6MM: TENDER
  • Blake Treinen – $5.8MM: TENDER
  • Sean Manaea – $3.8MM: TENDER
  • Kendall Graveman – $2.5MM: NON-TENDER
  • Cory Gearrin – $2.4MM: NON-TENDER
  • Liam Hendriks – $2.1MM: TENDER
  • Mark Canha – $2.1MM: TENDER
  • Ryan Buchter – $1.3MM: TENDER
  • Josh Phegley – $1.2MM: TENDER
  • Ryan Dull – $900K: NON-TENDER

FREE AGENTS:

(I'm using here the Fangraphs crowdsourcing contract estimates, to try and maintain some attempt at objectivity in $/year.)

  • Trevor Cahill: 2/$14M — Cahill was truly excellent when on the mound in 2018, and his extreme ground-ball profile fits in perfectly with the incredible infield defense.
  • Brett Anderson: 1/$3M — Anderson was actually not projected to receive a contract on Fangraphs, despite putting up a solid year when on the mound. Yes, he's an injury risk, but Brett Anderson is better than you think he is... he's just not that different from Dallas Keuchel, and all those groundballs will be eaten up by Matt Chapman and play to his strengths again. Anderson is a really cheap way to get some quality SP innings.
  • Jed Lowrie: 2/$24M — It's tempting to let Lowrie walk, and I think the A's are planning to do that in real life. But I can't pass up how valuable Lowrie's bat has been in the last two years, and I think it's playing with fire to let him leave. I still have some real hope for Barreto, but he has another option year... might as well take advantage and let him really try and figure out what pitches to swing at with another year in AAA. I'm bringing back Lowrie. And Barreto is ready in 2020 and Lowrie's still playing well, that means Barreto's trade value will be higher then than it is now.
  • Khris Davis (extension): 3/$50M — This is also a tough one. There might be a more efficient way to spend this money. But I can't help but feel this is a good move for the franchise, and that letting Khris walk after 2019 would be risky to the offense. This deal would save ~$1.5MM in 2019, while offering him probably a little more / year the next two years than he'd get on the open market. The hometown discount plays in by allowing the A's to get away with only 3 years on the contract. 4 years would be a long time in the future for a DH to be expected to still produce, but if he becomes a free agent after this year, he could probably get a 3 year deal... so this allows the A's to only sign him for 2 additional years, though still paying him a nice salary.
There were quite a few free agents that I had some interest in, but I ended up going the trade route here, mostly just to keep the salary under $100M. In case you're interested, these are the other free agents I think are worth considering at their Fangraphs crowdsourced prices:

Dallas Keuchel: 4/$79MM

Andrew Miller: 2/$22MM

Robinson Chirinos: 1/$4MM

Clay Buchholz: 1/$6MM

Derek Holland: 2/$13MM

Shawn Kelley: 1/$5MM

Hyun-Jin Ryu: 3/$40MM

Steve Pearce: 1/$7MM

So, that brings us to TRADES:

Using the non-tenders above and the estimated arbitration salaries, I'm starting from a payroll of $65M, and we're trying to keep the payroll under $100M. In real life, the A's will probably spend less than that, but I'm ok assuming a little generosity here from my imaginary boss, John Fisher.

So, the KD extension actually lowers the 2019 payroll to $63.5M. Then, signing Lowrie, Cahill, and Anderson brings it back up to $85.5M. That's where we begin as the trades get underway.

  • Trade Jorge Mateo and Daulton Jefferies to the Mets for Seth Lugo. Lugo is a really interesting pitcher — he's got one of the highest spin-rate curveballs in baseball, and he was a decent starter who became a multi-inning relief ace this year. I'm trading for him to become the A's version of Brad Peacock (or 2018 Collin McHugh). He's also pre-arb and under control for 4 years.
  • Trade Dustin Fowler, Frankie Montas, and Sheldon Neuse to the Diamondbacks for Robbie Ray and David Peralta. First of all, I should say that I'm a believer in Fowler's bat... but if he's not a CF-er (he's not), then I'm not sure it's good enough to make up for a lack of defensive value. I don't think he'll be great in a corner outfield spot either, so while he might hit like Josh Reddick in his prime, that's not that valuable without defense. Montas is a good trade chip — he had, in some ways, a good year in 2018, he's out of options, and... I don't think he's that good. And Neuse is Neuse... if there's someone else of equivalent value that the Diamondbacks want, I'm all ears. But the return here is a key part of the 2019-2020 Oakland A's. First of all, Robbie Ray misses bats like nobody's business. He's really hard to hit. And the Coliseum will suppress some of his HRs and likely push his actual results towards his SIERA/xFIP numbers, which suggest that he's probably one of the better pitchers in baseball. He walked too many in 2018, for sure, but I'm expecting a bounce-back... and even in 2018 he was pretty decent. And then David Peralta... he's just really good. A perfect platoon partner for Pinder in LF. He's basically LHH 2018 Jed Lowrie. Imagine having ANOTHER of those hitters in the lineup! The Peralta/Pinder platoon is going to be one of the best outfielders in baseball. Both Ray and Peralta are in their second arbitration years, so we have them through 2020. They'll each cost ~$5M this year most likely, so this puts the payroll at $95M.
  • Trade Kevin Merrell to the Rangers for Mike Minor + $6M. Mike Minor really impressed me in 2018. His overall numbers weren't amazing (just above average, taking his park into account), but he was really good in the second half, and can be dazzling when he's on. I would love to have him in the rotation, and the Rangers would probably be ok getting a prospect back for something of a salary dump. Win-win. This puts our payroll though at $101M. So...
  • Trade Fernando Rodney to the Red Sox for a PTBNL. I never would have picked up Rodney's option, but the A's did... so they must believe they can either trade him for that value or that he could be worth it. I can't possibly imagine he'll be worth it, so I'm trading him for the money back (and a PTBNL). Payroll back down to $96M.
  • Trade Greg Deichmann to the Yankees for Sonny Gray + $4M. Come on! How could we pass this up?! Sonny actually wasn't that bad last year. His 4.17 FIP was pretty good, and pretty good is all we really need out of starting pitchers on this team, considering the position players and the bullpen. The payroll is now at $99M.
  • Trade Chris Bassitt and Luis Barrera to the White Sox for Aaron Bummer. First of all, his name is Bummer! But second of all, he was one of the best pitchers in baseball last year by SIERA in a limited sample. Groundballs and strikeouts, oh my! He's a mini Zach Britton (with better control and slightly less ridiculous groundball-tendency), and is pre-arb / under control for many years. He's a great target, and I think the White Sox would jump at the chance for Barrera and could slot Bassitt into the rotation and not have to worry about his options. There are also several other good bullpen targets around, though right now our 'pen is just kind of full... but here are the other players I considered (and that I'd be excited to see the A's trade for): Tanner Scott; Tim Hill; Trevor May; Blake Parker. They could probably get any of those guys, and they're all really good.
So, now we've got a team! And oh what a team it is. Look at this:

SP: Ray, Luzardo, Cahill, Gray, Anderson, Mengden

Bullpen: Treinen, Trivino, Lugo, Wendelken, Hendriks, Petit, Buchter, Bummer

(By the way, 6 starters are listed here... if everyone in both the rotation and bullpen is healthy at the end of spring training, then Mengden starts the year in long relief in the bullpen and Wendelken awaits the first injury in AAA. But most likely, there will be an injury and this path will already be clear.)

C: Sean Murphy (yes, he's my opening day catcher. His defense alone will make him one of the best catchers in baseball from day 1. To be fair, that's a low bar.)

1B: Matt Olson

2B: Jed Lowrie

SS: Marcus Semien

3B: Matt Chapman

LF: Peralta/Pinder

CF: Laureano

RF: Piscotty

DH: Khris

Bench: Phegley, Canha, Pinder/Peralta.

This $99M team is winning the world series.