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FromGCtoGM's Offseason Plan - A Framing Story

FromGCtoGM’s Offseason Plan - A Framing Story (Many Too Many Words on Yasmani Grandal)


Arbitration Eligible players

Write tender or non-tender next to each name. You can trade before tendering a contract.

  • Khris Davis – $18.1MM - Extension at $3/45, otherwise Tender
  • Mike Fiers – $9.7MM - Extension at 2/$15, otherwise Tender
  • Marcus Semien – $6.6MM - Tender
  • Blake Treinen – $5.8MM - Tender
  • Sean Manaea – $3.8MM - Extension to discount next year, otherwise Tender
  • Kendall Graveman – $2.5MM - Minor League Agreement, otherwise Non-Tender
  • Cory Gearrin – $2.4MM - Tender, Trade
  • Liam Hendriks – $2.1MM - Tender, Available for Trade
  • Mark Canha – $2.1MM - Tender, Available for Trade
  • Ryan Buchter – $1.3MM - Tender
  • Josh Phegley – $1.2MM - Non-Tender, or explore trade if there is interest
  • Ryan Dull – $900K - Tender


Total Arbitration Estimate (worst case): $52.8M without any trades, extensions, and including Manaea
Total Arbitration Estimate (best case): $43.7M with extension discounts, without Manaea (not expected on 25 man roster)


Free Agency

Yasmani Grandal - $3/45M

While I came to appreciate Lucroy's intangibles the more I heard about them (ranging from the pitcher's glowing endorsements of his preparation to the board he established in the clubhouse to help fill an empty space and give the team a means to express their identity), the numbers hate him. By bWAR, he was worth -0.7 WAR. By fWAR, he was worth 0.6 WAR. Both metrics hated his offense, Fangraphs gave him positive marks on defense, but taken together he was a replacement-level player at best. Additionally, framing metrics placed him among the worst in the league, likely making him far worse than even replacement-level. While the A's certainly have gaps to fill in their rotation, arguably there is no place on the roster for larger improvement over last year's team than behind the dish. While understanding that Murphy is expected to be ready in 2020, if not next year, he will not need to be placed on the 40 man roster until the end of 2019 and has all of his option years available. More importantly, there is no problem with having two strong catchers, and if Murphy was to have a battery mate to learn from, no catcher in the league would be better to learn from than Grandal. Suzuki is a strong leader and I have no doubts he would make a fine teacher, but while Lucroy placed 106th out of 117th on Baseball Prospectus's ranking of catchers by their adjusted framing runs, Suzuki placed 105th. Neither Suzuki nor Lucroy has the framing ability currently to demonstrate to Murphy how it is done. Grandal, on the other hand, was the best framing catcher in the league last year, the 4th best in 2017, the 2nd best in 2016, and the best again in 2015. With neither fWAR nor bWAR incorporating framing into their measurement, it is perhaps an undervalued commodity that the A's have not capitalized on at all. I know Grandal is likely to be the most expensive catcher on the free agent market and, with Murphy on the way, looks like a luxury the A's can't afford. However, concentrating the bulk of our available funds on him is not irresponsible, as he is almost certain to make all of the pitchers better, allowing us to save money on our rotation. More importantly, his poor October has potentially impacted his value. Fangraphs places an estimate on him of 3/$39. If Grandal is available for roughly the same amount as Lowrie, roll with Barreto at second and change your catcher from one of the worst in the league to one of the best. We do not need Brantley in LF while we have Martini, Pinder, and Canha. We do not need Lowrie, Dozier, or LeMahieu at 2B when Barreto is potentially ready (though, for the record, I would take a chance on a Dozier bounce back out of those three for the anticipated price of each). If we are going to make an upgrade, make it a big one, and make it at the spot of our biggest weakness -- And then trade Grandal for pitching next year when we don't need him anymore.


Clay Buchholz - 1/$6M

There are a number of decent free-agent pitchers likely to be available for cheap, including the three that provided surprising shots in the arm to the A's this last year. We need at least two of them. The first on my list is Buchholz, who put in a great 100 innings last year at a 2.01 ERA with a 3.47 FIP. His season ended early when a flexor strain in his forearm caused the Diamondbacks to shut him down in September. A tear in his flexor tendon caused Buchholz to miss all but two starts in 2017. This signing is dependent on him demonstrating that he is healthy enough to at least start the season. If so, the hope is he will provide enough starts that Luzardo can begin the year in AAA, prove he is too good for that league, and move up. Best-case scenario, you get 20 or more great starts out of Buchholz and he becomes a linchpin of the rotation for the bulk of the season.


Anibal Sanchez - $2/19M

After two terrible years, Sanchez developed a cutter last year, got a lot of groundball outs, and pitched to a 2.83 ERA over 24 starts. Fangraphs did not list him among their top 50 free agents, while MLBTradeRumors ranked him 28th and projected him for two years at $22M. I expect (hope) he will cost less, and only need one year at $7-9M, but am willing to provide two years at anything other than exactly $10M.

Free Agent Cost: $30.5M


Trade Proposals

Acquire Garrett Stubbs - As others have written here, and with a specific hat tip to kiwislovetheA's for his tremendous research in his "Rule 5 of Rosterbating" Fanpost, Stubbs is a plus defender behind the plate, had a breakout year hitting last year, and is potentially blocked by the Astros and available, because otherwise he is likely to be taken in the Rule 5 Draft. He is quite obviously the next Laureano. Stubbs was heralded as perhaps the Astros best catching prospect in 2016 after crushing the high A and double AA leagues before a subpar year hitting in 2017 and then a tremendous bounce back in 2018. He was a Fringe Five pick both before his poor 2017 and again after his improvement in 2018. I don't know what he would cost, but expect the Astros would again want to get something for him rather than nothing. Have him replace Phegley for cheaper, learn from Grandal, and see if lightning strikes twice (resulting in a best case scenario of the A's having three strong options behind the plate).


Summary

Rotation: Sanchez, Buchholz, Fiers, Mengden, Bassitt/Montas

Bullpen: Treinen, Trivino, Rodney, Petit, Buchter, Hendriks, Wendelken

Lineup:

1B: Olson

2B: Barreto

SS: Semien

3B: Chapman

LF: Martini/Canha/Pinder

CF: Laureano

RF: Piscotty

DH: Davis

C: Grandal/Stubbs


25 Man Roster Cost: 96.25-105.35

Contract Cost (Petit, Piscotty, Rodney): $18.05M

Arbitration (Davis, Fiers, Semien, Treinen, Hendriks, Canha, Buchter): $41.3-50.4

Free Agency (Grandal, Buchholz, Sanchez): $30.5

Pre-Arbitration (Mengden, Bassitt, Montas, Trivino, Wendelken, Olson, Barreto, Chapman, Martini, Pinder, Laureano, Stubbs): $6.9M


If this cost is too high (as I expect it to be), I would encourage the following cost-cutting moves in this order:

First, trade Rodney and replace him with Dull in the bullpen. Cost drop: $4.675M.

Second, trade Hendriks and acquire a left-handed pre-arbitration relief pitcher. Cost drop: $1.525M.

Third, trade Canha and acquire a pre-arbitration glove-first second baseman to hedge the Barreto risk. Cost drop: $1.525M.

This plan is also dependent on reaching extensions with key players above to drop their 2019 cost. If all of this happens, the 2019 25 Man Roster Cost would be: $88.525M.

If a further drop in cost is needed, sign a cheaper alternative to Sanchez, including any of the three outgoing free agent starting pitchers.

Obviously, the easiest way to drop cost would be to sign or otherwise acquire a cheaper Catcher. However, given my belief that Grandal's estimated cost is far below his value to this A's team. If Grandal is available for anywhere in the range $13-$17 AAV for no more than three years, I would build the rest of this team around that acquisition and the young, cheap core we already have.


It's clear it's not happening but - damnit, I really wanted Grandal.