FanPost

JJ209's Offseason Plan

Arbitration Eligible players (using MLBTR’s arbitration estimates)

  • Khris Davis – $18.1MM Tender/Extension
  • Mike Fiers – $9.7MM Non-Tender
  • Marcus Semien – $6.6MM Tender
  • Blake Treinen – $5.8MM Tender
  • Sean Manaea – $3.8MM Tender
  • Kendall Graveman – $2.5MM Non-Tender
  • Cory Gearrin – $2.4MM Non-Tender
  • Liam Hendriks – $2.1MM Tender
  • Mark Canha – $2.1MM Tender
  • Ryan Buchter – $1.3MM Tender
  • Josh Phegley – $1.2MM Tender
  • Ryan Dull – $900K Non-Tender

Khris Davis

$18 Million is a lot of money to pay for one player, especially when the team is Oakland. With that said, Khris Davis will be getting that if that is what it takes to get him back in uniform next season. He is an obvious extension candidate. Like many others, I would offer a 4 year $60-65 Million deal to keep him here longer and possibly safe a few dollars in the process.

Mike Fiers

If you are going to be a good team, the likelihood is you will need a few pitchers like Mike Fiers to make it through the season. Except when they are going to cost you nearly $10 Million to sign. Then you pass. I would try and bring him back at a cheaper price but there wouldn't be a need for us to go into the season paying him that much money, although it's not the worst thing in the world if he comes back even at that price considering, well you know, we don't have any pitchers right now.

Others
Corey Gearrin falls into a situation where we really don't need him and less when you are about to pay $2 Million. Kendall Graveman will be out for a while, too many question marks for me to tender him the contract.

Free Agents

Jed Lowrie 2 years $25 Million
Jeremy Hellickson 1 year $6.5 Million
Boog Powell Minor League Deal

Jed Lowrie

The big signing here revolves around Jed Lowrie. He was a big part of what the A's did last year and having him back would be a big step in making sure 2019 is successful. He may not repeat the production of the past two seasons, but he is a proven player and should still sustain good value to make this a worthy investment for our current window.

Jeremy Hellickson

Hellickson is coming off a productive season with the Washington Nationals. Hellickson posted a 3.45 ERA 6.41 K/9 1.97 BB/9 1.08 HR/9 in 19 starts before a wrist injury ended his season. He is not going to light up the world, but at 31 can still provide solid production that can get you through a season. Hellickson really is just a place holder for the type of pitcher I would be looking to add this offseason. Mike Fiers or Trevor Cahill would be perfectly fine in this role.

Boog Powell

With little outfield depth in the minor leagues, it is disappointing to have lost Boog Powell. He would be a nice depth piece to have on the team, especially with the moves to come.

Trade Proposals

Phillies: Mark Canha OF/1B
Athletics: Zach Eflin SP

The Phillies are looking for some help in the outfield. While that may mean they are going for a big target, a nice alternative would be someone like Mark Canha who can produce solid numbers at a very reasonable cost. Zach Eflin has had a history of struggles and injuries but finally put it together this past season after having gain 20 pounds of muscle to help his legs manage a whole season and saw a nice boost in velocity in the process.

Pirates: Dustin Fowler OF, Sheldon Nuese 3B, Chris Bassitt SP
Athletics: Francisco Cervelli C

Cervelli is going into the final year of his contract making $11.5 Million. Cervelli is one of the top catching options across all of baseball not named JT Realmuto and could be potentially available when you consider what Elias Diaz was able to produce for the Pirates last year while Cervelli was injured. The future of Oakland behind the plate in Sean Murphy, but Cervelli offers us a star studded catcher for one year to fill that gap and maximize the window for the A's in 2019. Pirates are said to be looking for a potential outfield help and Dustin Fowler offers that with several years of control at a cheap rate. He would be the main piece going back to the Pirates along with Sheldon Nuese and Chris Bassitt. In an ideal world, the Pirates throw in some money to make this a easier move for the A's to do and should be easy for the Pirates to do since no one they are adding is taking significant salary.

Dodgers: Franklin Barreto 2B, Sky Bolt OF
Athletics: Kenta Maeda SP

After signing Jed Lowrie to a 2 year deal, Franklin Barreto would be a prime candidate to turn around and trade for help in other areas. Kenta Maeda is a good pitcher with a very unique incentive contract with a base pay of $3.125 Million and incentives of $1 Million per 5 starts over 15, 20, 25, 30. He also have incentives based around innings pitched after 90 IP. He would be making $250K per 10 IP over 90, which can make Maeda's contract vary based on how he is used by the team. Last year with the Dodgers, Maeda was switched from the rotation to the pen after 19 starts. He totaled a pay day of $6.125 Million pitching 125 IP. Back in 2016, Maeda started 32 games pitching 175 IP and made $10.375 Million. This gives us the range in which Maeda would be making next season depending on how he would be used. Maeda is under control until 2023, and unlike other players his contract can actually turn out to be a plus long term. If Maeda struggles as a starter down the road, he may be uniquely able to turn a role into the pen at a very affordable price. Maeda fills a role now as a key starter and potentially later in his contract as a bullpen piece. Perhaps the A's play with the role of an opener again to limit Maeda cost for starts and still benefit from his production. I am not exactly sure of Maeda value, but using Barreto as a prime piece in the deal could be a good starting point to make the deal happen.

Summary

Payroll? Yeah I don't know what we have to play with this offseason and this plan may very well get close if not over the century mark, but could work out if tinkered with to make everything fit.

IN: F. Cervelli, Z. Eflin, J.Hellickson, J.Lowrie, K.Maeda, B.Powell

OUT: D.Fowler, M.Canha, F.Barreto, S.Neuse, C.Bassitt, S. Bolt, M. Fiers, K.Graveman, C.Gerrain

Guaranteed Contracts:

Davis DH $16.25 Million

Lowrie 2B $12 Million

Cervelli C $6 Million (11.5 Million, 1/2 from Pittsburgh)

Piscotty OF $7.3 Million

Hellickson SP $6 Million

Petit RP $5.5 Million

Rodney RP $5.25 Million

Maeda SP $3.125 Million (likely between $6 Million-$10 Million)

Arbitration:

  • Marcus Semien – $6.6MM
  • Blake Treinen – $5.8MM
  • Sean Manaea – $3.8MM
  • Liam Hendriks – $2.1MM
  • Ryan Buchter – $1.3MM
  • Josh Phegley – $1.2MM

Pre-Arbitration:: $9 Million

Total Approx $98 Million (I used Maeda's 32 start in 2016 for $10M as the cost in the total).

C: F.Cervelli, J.Phegley

INF: M.Olson, J.Lowrie, M.Semien, M.Chapman

OF: S.Piscotty, R.Laureano, N.Martini, C.Pinder, B. Powell

DH: K.Davis

SP: K.Maeda, Z.Eflin, J.Hellickson, D.Mengden, J.Luzardo

RP: Y.Petit, F.Montas, L.Hendriks, F.Rodney, R.Buchter, E, Pagan, L.Trivino, B.Trenien

Lineup vs RHP

1) N.Martini LF

2) M. Chapman 3B

3) J. Lowrie 2B

4) K. Davis DH

5) M. Olson 1B

6) S. Piscotty RF

7) F. Cervelli C

8) R. Laureano CF

9) M. Semien SS

Bench: J.Phegley, C. Pinder, B. Powell

Lineup vs LHP

1) R. Laureano CF

2) M. Chapman 3B

3) J. Lowrie 2B

4) K. Davis DH

5) S. Piscotty RF

6) F. Cervelli C

7) M. Olson 1B

8) C. Pinder LF

9) M. Semien SS

Bench J. Phegley, N. Martini, B. Powell

It's hard making real life realistic deals that work for both teams or team and player, but I think there could be a frame work for some potential deals here. Obviously not knowing whether payroll will go that high will be an obstacle, along with whether enough is given up to make those deals happen. With whatever happens, I think the trade market will be a major part of how the A's upgrade the team for next season. We shall see what the next couple of months bring to in and out of Oakland.