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I was in attendance for last Wednesday’s game between the Oakland A’s and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in Anaheim. The game, which the A’s lost 8-5, came with poor defense and included another injury to a key pitcher, was long and drawn out. However, something wonderful happened!
My dad and I discussed Matt Joyce and I explained that Joyce’s poor stats were the result of bad luck, and that he had actually been hitting the ball hard this year but hasn’t seen the fruits of his labor.
Two chuckleheads sitting behind us provided their expert analysis.
“Matt Joyce is still alive?” One man chirped.
His friend replied, “Judging by his batting average I’d say he barely has a pulse.”
Just then, crack! Joyce popped a well hit two-run home run over the right field wall.
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I bring this story up because it’s fun to talk about going to a game with my dad, but also to bring to everyone’s attention that Oakland’s “big” offseason acquisition isn’t a lost cause, yet.
Low BABIP or Poor Skill?
According to Fangraphs Joyce is hitting the ball harder than he has in the past. His hard-hit rate is right around his career average, but his medium-hit rate is the second highest 0f his career while his soft-hit rate is the lowest it’s ever been. Also, he has yet to hit an infield fly ball! All of that has amounted to a .518 OPS and a 45 wRC+. Joyce’s BABIP, however is just .176, which is the lowest of his career (aside from an 11-game stint in 2009).
Hard-Hit Outs
I decided to take a closer look using Statcast to determine why exactly Joyce’s hard-hit batted balls are turning into outs.
Joyce has 6 hard-hit flyball or line drive outs this season, so far. That is good enough to tie him for 13th most in baseball Here is what the numbers say about those collective batted balls:
Matt Joyce’s Hard-Hit Outs
| Name | xwOBA | xBA | PAs | AVG. Exit Velocity | Launch Angle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | xwOBA | xBA | PAs | AVG. Exit Velocity | Launch Angle |
| Matt Joyce | 0.778 | 0.528 | 6 | 101.8 | 25.7 |
Now case-by-case:
Matt Joyce’s Hard-Hit Outs: Case by Case
| Date | Home Team | Away Team | Inning | Distance | Exit Velocity | Launch Angle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Home Team | Away Team | Inning | Distance | Exit Velocity | Launch Angle |
| 4/30/17 | HOU | OAK | 9 | 371 ft. | 93 MPH | 28.44 deg. |
| 4/15/17 | OAK | HOU | 1 | 170 ft. | 108.8 MPH | 10.676 deg. |
| 4/10/17 | KC | OAK | 3 | 370 ft. | 106.7 MPH | 17.635 deg. |
| 4/9/17 | TEX | OAK | 6 | 320 ft. | 102.4 MPH | 41.887 deg. |
| 4/7/17 | TEX | OAK | 1 | 399 ft. | 97.2 MPH | 26.327 deg. |
| 4/3/17 | OAK | LAA | 4 | 385 ft. | 100.8 MPH | 29.309 deg. |
Now take a look at what other hitters have done with similar batted balls this season.
April 3, 2017: LAA vs. OAK, Oakland, Calif.
385 ft. line drive, 101 MPH, 29 degrees.
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April 4, 2017: OAK vs. TEX, Arlington, TX.
399 ft. fly ball, 97 MPH, 26 degrees.
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Watch Carlos Gomez rob Joyce of what would have been the first of two home runs that day.
April 9, 2017: OAK vs. TEX, Arlington, TX.
320 ft. fly ball, 102 MPH, 42 degrees.
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You can watch this long fly ball here.
April 10, 2017: OAK vs. KC, Kansas City, MO.
370 ft. line drive, 107 MPH, 18 degrees.
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April 15, 2017: HOU vs. OAK, Oakland, Calif.
170 ft. line drive, 109 MPH, 11 degrees.
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April 30, 2017: OAK vs. HOU, Houston, TX.
370 ft. fly ball, 93 MPH, 28 degrees.
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These images and the chart below make it easy to envision what Joyce’s hard-hit outs typically become.
Matt Joyce’s Hit Probability
| Date | EV | LA | BA | 1B% | 2B% | 3B% | HR% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | EV | LA | BA | 1B% | 2B% | 3B% | HR% |
| 4/3/17 | 101 | 29 | 0.696 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 57 |
| 4/7/17 | 97 | 26 | 0.345 | 1 | 16 | 2 | 15 |
| 4/9/17 | 102 | 42 | 0.273 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 23 |
| 4/10/17 | 107 | 18 | 0.778 | 8 | 56 | 1 | 13 |
| 4/15/17 | 109 | 11 | 0.826 | 54 | 28 | 1 | 0 |
| 4/30/17 | 93 | 28 | 0.143 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 5 |
xStats
As I mentioned in a previous entry xStats are a brilliant way to project any given player’s production based on their Statcast data. Joyce’s season appears much better when you take his xStats into account.
Matt Joyce’s xStats
| Player | BA | ISO | BABIP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | xBA | Exit Velocity | Launch Angle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | BA | ISO | BABIP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | xBA | Exit Velocity | Launch Angle |
| Matt Joyce | 0.167 | 0.121 | 0.176 | 0.288 | 0.230 | 0.340 | 0.244 | 88.6 | 10.9 |
I’m not completely writing off Joyce’s poor first month, because the results he’s seen are real and they still count. However, I know better numbers are on their way, and Statcast is providing evidence that Joyce is hitting the ball well and is worthy of a better batting line. The data here is a few days old, but the idea remains the same: Joyce has been one of baseball’s unluckiest under-performers this year (Amazing, I had most of this written before I ever saw that article)!
Hopefully better results show up sooner rather than later.
