The New York Yankees’ recent acquisition of slugger Giancarlo Stanton has led many to believe that young outfielder Clint Frazier could be a trade chip to help bolster the club elsewhere. The Oakland A’s have been in the hunt for a right-handed hitter, and according to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, could have interest in the 23 year-old Frazier. However, there are many reasons to believe that Frazier would not be a great fit for Oakland.
High acquisition cost
Frazier won’t come cheap. Formerly a consensus top 50 prospect, his 39 MLB games of slightly below average production isn’t going to lower his value much. The Yankees even refused to include him in last summer’s Sonny Gray trade. A single year of Jed Lowrie for all six years of control for Frazier simply isn’t going to happen.
Another popular idea - taking Jacoby Ellsbury’s three year, $68 million contract as a salary dump to lower Frazier’s price tag - simply isn’t going to happen either. Sure, the A’s have the budget room, but such a move would be unprecedented for them. I can’t remember the team ever taking on even a $10 million contract to buy a prospect, let alone almost $70 million.
Plus, Ellsbury has a no-trade clause and is “unlikely” to waive it, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Maybe the A’s could offer to let Ellsbury play full time, but playing an old, left-handed hitting outfielder every day defeats the purpose of adding a young right-handed hitter. In addition, Shohei Ohtani just reminded us that Oakland still is not a desirable destination, regardless of what promises can be made. Ellsbury would not be headed to Oakland in a Clint Frazier deal.
The Yankees are targeting young pitching, and the A’s have plenty of that - just none of it is proven at all. Kendall Graveman and Sean Manaea would certainly interest New York, but trading either player leaves the rotation in ruin. The A’s front office has little interest in the free agent starters available to them, meaning a trade of Graveman or Manaea would likely leave either Andrew Triggs or Daniel Mengden as the team’s number two starter. Dealing a young arm for Frazier would just be robbing Peter to pay Paul.
A prospect-for-prospect deal is also enticing, as after trading Starlin Castro to Miami, the Yankees have a hole at second base that Franklin Barreto could fill. However, such deals are extremely rare, and the A’s have not shown any indication that they are willing to trade Barreto this winter.
How good is Frazier, anyway?
At such a high acquisition cost, Clint Frazier has to be good. And by all accounts, he is - he universally ranked highly on all top prospect lists prior to his graduation to MLB. But is this warranted?
Frazier’s calling card is his incredible bat speed which is, admittedly, very impressive. His next best tool, by most accounts, is his raw power. However, he has yet to show an ability to consistently tap into this power in games. His season high for home runs in the minors is only 16, and in his debut last season, he posted a .216 ISO, only 94th best in MLB (minimum 140 PA). Yes, an incredibly small sample, and a .216 ISO is still above average, but in today’s game of the juiced ball, it is not too impressive. If Frazier is going to strike out 30% of the time like he did in his small MLB sample, he needs to hit for more power.
Frazier is no longer a center fielder, and the defensive metrics did not like his work in the corners last season. While scouting reports give him above average speed and fielding with a plus arm, he is likely nothing more than a right fielder long term. This is fine, and the A’s definitely need corner help, but they can no longer value him as a guy capable of playing center.
Of course, Frazier is very young, has prospect pedigree, and could certainly grow into a fantastic player. But he isn’t a surefire thing, and I am very hesitant to buy into what could just be Yankee prospect hype.
There are plenty of other options
The outfield market is flooded this winter, in both free agency and on the trade market. If the team decides it wants a long-term addition, St. Louis outfielder Stephen Piscotty is under contract for the next five years, plus an option (although Tim argued against Piscotty earlier today). If the team wants flashy star power, they can open the prospect bank and pursue Marcell Ozuna or Christian Yelich from Miami. If they’d rather spend cash, free agent center fielder Lorenzo Cain doesn’t seem to have much of a market at the moment, and could become a bargain.
Or perhaps the team pursues a lower profile addition. Austin Jackson and Carlos Gomez are two free agents capable of playing center field that cost only money, and could probably had on a low cost, two year deal. The team is reportedly monitoring the market of Carlos Gonzalez, who could be an interesting bounceback candidate. Or, maybe they pursue one of my four low cost trade targets from yesterday, including Adam Duvall or Steven Souza Jr., both of whom Susan Slusser confirmed the team’s interest in last night.
Regardless of what player the team does pursue, there are plenty of options outside of Clint Frazier that will either be much less expensive or much more reliable. Certainly Frazier has incredible upside, but also a very low floor, and at his price I do not believe he should be a target for the team.