To this point in the offseason, the word on Jed Lowrie was that the Oakland A’s expected to keep their veteran second baseman. However, there is still a chance that he could be traded this winter, reports Susan Slusser of the S.F. Chronicle.
Lowrie had a career year in 2017 with a good bat and decent defense up the middle, and he’s a relative bargain at $6 million next season. However, he’ll be a free agent at the end of 2018 and the A’s have multiple strong 2B options coming up the minor league system — most notably Franklin Barreto, but also Yairo Munoz, Max Schrock, and others. None of those prospects are definitely ready to make the Opening Day roster, but Barreto at least debuted in MLB last summer and could presumably step in immediately if needed.
In other words, Oakland doesn’t need to get rid of Lowrie yet. He could serve as an excellent stopgap while they wait for a youngster to force his way up, at which point Lowrie would be a potential July trade chip. However, if the right offer came along this winter then he could be expendable, with his value as high as it’s ever likely to be coming off a healthy, 4-WAR campaign. The switch-hitter will play next year at age 34.
Lowrie, 2017: .277/.360/.448, 119 wRC+, 14 HR, 11.3% BB, 15.5% Ks
With all that in mind, who might be interested in acquiring Lowrie, what might he be worth, and what other competition is out there?
Who else is available?
Let’s begin with the competition. The free agent market is weak at 2B, with Neil Walker being the big prize. Brandon Phillips and Chase Utley are out there, but neither one is a star anymore.
On the trade market, the rebuilding Tigers are shopping Ian Kinsler as a one-year rental (link), while the Phillies would be open to selling high on Cesar Hernandez (link). Also, Jason Kipnis has been mentioned in rumors, though it’s unclear if he’s actually available (link). Meanwhile, Dee Gordon is off the board, and the Marlins aren’t necessarily looking to flip the recently acquired Starlin Castro (link).
That’s a lot of names! The good news is that Lowrie had a better 2017 than every single one of them. Kinsler and Kipnis are bigger names but had significant off-years at the plate, while Castro and Walker were each around 2 WAR. Kipnis and Castro have multiple years left on their contracts, each at eight figures per. Hernandez likely has the brightest future, but seems the least available and is more of a long-term target while Lowrie is a short-term rental.
Seems to me that the main competition for now is Kinsler and Walker. Beyond those two and Lowrie, any acquiring team will either be looking at a significant upgrade in price or a significant downgrade in talent.
What’s he worth?
LOL this is an A’s trade we’re talking about; your guess is as good as mine. I’d argue he’s worth more than Kinsler because Lowrie had a better 2017, he isn’t as deep into his 30s decline (if anything he’s peaking late), and he’s making half the salary. MLB Trade Rumors predicted 2/$20M for Walker in free agency, which isn’t expensive but does require a multi-year commitment to a guy who played under 115 games each of the last two seasons.
The better question here is whether the A’s would be more likely to go after a prospect return, or a swap for another short-term win-now player at a position of more need (like an outfielder or pitcher).
Who wants a 2B?
The team with the highest-profile need is the Mets. They are definitely looking for a new 2B this winter, and are “unlikely” to go after the free agent Walker (link). Here’s what GM Sandy Alderson had to say about making a trade, via Mike Puma of the NY Post (link):
“Our farm system right now is not brimming with prospects, so in that sense, making a trade isn’t as attractive,” Alderson said. “On the other hand, making a trade, giving up a minimal number of talented players for maybe someone who can help us on a shorter deal or what have you, there are pluses and minuses to each approach.”
They’ve been linked to all kinds of names, including many of the ones mentioned so far as well as free agent Jose Reyes and even Texas sorta-prospect Jurickson Profar (link). Given all that info, Lowrie would seem like an ideal option for them, between his low salary and short contract. But do the Mets have anything the A’s would want? They don’t appear to have outfielders or relievers to spare. (Please no Matt Harvey rental.) (Update: Mets and A’s have talked and are not a match, according to Puma.)
In Slusser’s article, she also mentions the Brewers and the Angels as being in the market at the keystone. Milwaukee is presumably trying to compete coming off an 86-win season, and they currently have literally Eric Sogard at 2B (though he was solid last year), followed by Jonathan Villar (who didn’t repeat his strong 2016). They also have a glut of outfielders, though that might not be enough to make them a match — they want a starting pitcher for Domingo Santana (link), and frankly I don’t want to pay for Santana because he’s all bat and I’m hoping for a defensive upgrade as much as anything. Might center fielders Keon Broxton or Brett Phillips be more tenable targets for both sides? (Pessimistic Phillips link)
As for the Angels, they’re a division rival and they have no farm system and Oakland already signed away their best relief pitcher in Yusmeiro Petit. Next.
The Yankees just traded away their starting 2B in the Giancarlo Stanton deal. Surely their replacement options of plentiful, but Lowrie would be a wonderful stopgap until top prospect Gleyber Torres is ready. Slusser notes in her article that rookie outfielder Clint Frazier, now blocked by Stanton, would be a wonderful get for the A’s, though of course he would cost far more than just Lowrie.
How about the Padres? MLB Trade Rumors has them in need of a shortstop (link), which Lowrie could technically be. They’re not ready to contend so a one-year rental probably doesn’t make sense, but let’s at least mention them.
Overall, no team is an obvious match for a Lowrie swap, but there is at least a market for players of his ilk. If anybody can find a creative solution, including but not limited to a three-team deal, it would be Billy Forst. And if nothing happens, then we’ll just have to welcome back Oakland’s top position player from last year while giving Barreto more time to quit striking out in Triple-A.
Related news
As long as we’re talking about second base, this seems like a good time to mention that Oakland traded Joey Wendle to the Rays on Monday. The A’s will receive a player to be named later or cash. Wendle had been designated for assignment on Thursday.