FanPost

OaklandAsbaseball Offseason Plan: Contend and Rebuild



Plans: The best path for the As this offseason is to continue the rebuild while getting parts to help contend. The As aren't far off of contention especially if they make moves to help the pitching staff. The As with an average pitching staff could surprise and contend next season. Even with playing the free agent market, the As should sell their upcoming free agents. If we cannot manage to contend, there will be plenty of players to trade. We should make efforts to add as much talent to our farm system as we can, while trying to fix our pitching to contend.

Nontenders: Phegley, and Hatcher. Tender Smolinski and stash him in Triple A.

Jed Lowrie, and Matt Joyce to the Brewers Corbin Burnes | RHP | | 96th |, Tristen Lutz | OF | | 8th/30 |, and Phil Bickford | RHP | | 24th/30 |

Reasoning: The As are in a weird place where contention is potentially in the near future. We should also keep adding to our farm system. Odds are Lowrie will never have a better season then this so we should trade him while his value is high, and Joyce could get back something decent as well. There are a few likely reasons why the Brewers do this. The Brewers will likely trade Braun this offseason and could use an impact bat in left field something Joyce could provide. Lowrie fills the need for second were they probably could lock him up to a decent contract. Part of the reason why they do would be willing to do this trade is the Brewers could seek to improve offensively. They ranked 17th in OBP, 20th in Rs, and 16th in SLG. These are areas where the two players could help. Now to answer the question who plays second it's going to be Wendle to at least start the season. His defense is good enough to keep him in the line up until Barreto comes up, hopefully he plays well enough for us to be able to trade him. The As get three interesting prospects all who have a good amount of upside. They could make this trade a very big win for the As down the road.

Corbin Burnes | RHP |: ETA: 2019: Scouting Grades: Fastball: 55 | Slider: 55 | Curveball: 50 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 55 | Overall: 55 |

Breakdown: Burnes was down right dominant this year in AA to the point where it might not be possible to get him in a trade. He posted a 1.67 era in 145.2 innings, he's very good. Now to talk about his pitchers, he mixes a 92-95 fastball that uses to attack hitters on both sides of the plate. His slider has the makings of a plus plus pitch but can be inconsistent at times, but when it's on he's dominant. The curveball is only average, while the changeup has a chance to be average. He has plus control, his whip this year was .95 which is insane. Burnes would be the headliner of this trade and is probably too good for Lowrie.

Tristen Lutz: ETA: 2021: Scouting Grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 55 | Run: 50 | Arm: 60 | Field: 55 | Overall: 50 |

Breakdown: Lutz oozes upside figuring to be the prototypical right fielder. He's a right handed batter with good bat speed and a ton of strength. Lutz is very far away, but has a very high ceiling to make up for it. In the rookie league he hit .311/.398/.559 this year with 16 walks. The only thing that slightly concerns me is he had 42 Ks in 40 games but he is also only 19. I see him as our right fielder of the future, and adds more talent to an already talented farm.

Phil Bickford | RHP | : ETA: 2019: Scouting Grades: Fastball: 55 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 55 | Overall: 45

Breakdown: It would be shocking if they traded Bickford, he has incredible stuff. He has throws a fastball that sits around 95 with a two seemer that sits in the low 90s. The two seemer has good sink and will be a good ground ball pitch once he learns to locate it better in the zone. His slider has the makings of a plus pitch, when his mechanics are in sync it's a great pitch. When his mechanics are off it becomes slurvy and becomes ineffective. He throws a split change which he has made great progress with looking to be another plus pitch in the makings. The only reason why Bickford could be available is he's injury prone and has been labeled with the mark of future reliever. If he can manage to stay healthy as a starter, his ceiling is very high if he doesn't he still has a very high ceiling as a reliever.

Jesse Hahn, and Casilla to the Padres for Luis Campusano | C | | 16th/30 |, Jeisson Rosario | OF | | 17th/30 |, and Michael Gettys | OF | | 21st/30 |

Reasoning: Jesse Hahn and Casilla both should be traded for different reasons. Hahn because he deserves a chance somewhere else, where he could break out. Casilla because he's just not very good, and his 40 man spot is more valuable. Why the Padres do this trade is simple, it very likely could be another Pomeranz. Jesse Hahn still has that upside, and the Padres would love to have him back. Casilla is someone who could have a bounce back season something the Padres will be hoping for so they can flip them both at the deadline. The Padres trading young distant talent for major league players is unlikely but they would be counting on flipping them for better prospects. The As get three young, very distant players each with good upside. This trade could really go either way, Hahn could break out and they could win it. Or he could flame out and one of the prospects we get could break out. It's a trade that would be hard to judge for years.

Luis Campusano: ETA: 2021: Scouting Grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 50 | Run: 30 | Arm: 60 | Field: 50 | Overall: 50 |

Breakdown: Luis stands because he's going to stay a catcher, unless something happens there is very little doubt he cannot stay a catcher long term. He has a very strong accurate arm, blocks well, and is cleaning up his receiving. He's a catcher that could actually move quickly through the system depending on his bat. He has plus power, with good bat speed but his swing can get long at times. If the As manage to shorten his swing, he could end up being a very good player.

Jeisson Rosario: ETA: 2020: Scouting Grades. Hit: 55 | Power: 50 | Run: 55 | Arm: 60 | Field: 50 | Overall: 50 |

Breakdown: Rosario is the best player in this trade and has the most upside. He has a very good chance to hit for a high average in the majors due to natural hitting ability. He even has already demonstrated a good eye in rookie ball having 33 walks to 36 Ks. The biggest issue with Rosario if he develops power he's a future star, if he doesn't he's at best a 4th outfielder. If he can manage to hit for average power he'll be a very good player. He fields centerfield well and has a good chance to stay there as he matures.

Michael Gettys: ETA: 2018: Scouting Grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 50 | Run: 60 | Arm: 70 | Field: 60 | Overall: 45

Breakdown: Gettys is upside, upside and guess what more upside. He also could so easily bust that it's incredible. Gettys is the owner of three plus tools, with extreme raw power that he has yet to harness. To put it in perspective how easily this guy can bust he has 191 Ks this year in A+. The K rate is incredible, but he also has an extremely high ceiling. If he manages to tap into his raw power while cutting his Ks even a bit he could be good player. Either way he very likely could be a 4th outfielder due to his defense. The As were going for boom or bust players I don't know if anyone represents that more than Gettys.

Healy, Alcantara, and Montas to the Twins for Alex Kirilloff | OF | | 6th/30 |, Blayne Enlow | 13th/30 | | RHP |, and Lamonte Wade | 17th/30 | | OF |

Reasoning: Now onto what will be the most unpopular move on this, trading Healy for prospects. Healy just in my opinion has no place on this team. We should trade him to another team who can hopefully get him to walk more. The player he was this year is the player he likely is, and the As don't need another one of those players. With team control and upside Healy should be worth more than a reliever. Now Montas has considerable upside but the As just don't need him anymore. The Twins take his trade and slot Healy in as their DH. They will try to get him to improve his walk percentage but if he doesn't he's still a good bat for DH. Montas can slot either into the Twins rotation or bullpen next season and has a good amount of upside. Alcantara would be a player the Twins would be interested in, he has his fair of upside as a reliever. Now Alcantara is somewhat of a throw in, in this trade. Not to say he doesn't have his own fair share of upside, his roster spot is just valuable. In all likelihood the Twins get two good to great relievers and a good hitter, sounds like a good trade for them. All three players have a good amount of team control which fits the Twins window, and could help them continue to contend. The As get back three very interesting prospects to help to improve our already good farm system.

Alex Kirilloff: ETA: 2020: Scouting Grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 50 | Run: 50 | Arm: 50 | Field: 50 | Overall: 50 |

Breakdown: Alex is the best prospect we're getting back for a reason. Alex has both potential to hit for a high average and potential to hit for a good amount of power. He can potentially stay in centerfield but the Twins moved him to right field. He has the upside of second hitter with good power while playing solid defense anywhere in the outfield. A potential blue chip prospect would a great addition to the farm system.

Blayne Enlow | RHP | : ETA: 2021: Scouting Grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 60 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 55 | Overall: 50 |

Breakdown: Enlow is another player that has been targeted that is a long ways away, but also has a very high ceiling. His fastball sits in the low 90s as of right now and can touch 94. Very likely he is going to add more velocity as he matures, in a few years he's going to be sitting more like 94-96. His curveball is a true 12-6 thrown in the low 80s. He isn't that much of a project compared to most other teenage pitchers just needing to work on his changeup and filling out his frame. He has the ceiling of a second starter with the floor of a fourth.

Lamonte Wade: ETA: 2018: Scouting Grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 40 | Run: 55 | Arm: 50 | Field: 50 | Overall: 50 |

Breakdown: Wade could end up being a very good player for us, his plate discipline is just incredible. He walked 76 times this year and struck out only 71 times in 424 at bats. His defense is average to slightly above, giving him a very high flour of a 4th outfielder. He hit .292/.397/.408 this year in AA, showing off his plus bat but the power leaves much to be desired. If his power ever develops he could be a very solid player but at worse he's a very good 4th outfielder who has tough at bats and manages to get on base.

Mike Mikolas 3/15

Reasoning: Having completely talked myself into wanting two players, I've decided we need both and they are Mikolas and Iannetta. Who both make sense for admittedly very different reasons. As fans we have to take Japanese league stats with a grain of salt but it's extremely hard to not get excited by just how good Mikolas was there. He carries a 2.18 era through 424 1/3 innings while King over 387 including 187 in 188 innings this year. He had a whip of .994 while there to show case even crazier stats. Mikolas has been dominating the league ever since he joined, and he very easily could be a very good third starter for us maybe more. The best thing about this is he'll be reasonably cheap for us, and at the very least could eat innings. The projection I laid out for him are obviously optimistic but potentially realistic due to just how good he was.

Projection: 3.65 Era, 181 Innings, 168 Ks, .244 AVG, 1.21 Whip, 11-6, 3.5 War

Doug Fister 2/16

Reasoning: Fister in my mind could be a huge steal in the offseason, he put up a 1.4 war in 90 innings which could lead to him having a 3+ war this season. Fister from 2011-2014 was an great to above average pitcher, obviously he wont post a 5 or 4 war again. However their is 3rd starter upside in him, and he would be a great addition to our roster. If we don't compete he'll be a great starter to trade at the deadline, bringing us back more talent. One of the reasons he would be a good additon is he could be a great mentor to our staff having his own ups and downs in his career. Having regained his velocity, Fister has gained back his upside. If he's back to throwing high 80s to 90 you're looking at a number two starter again. Even if we are contending, trading Fister at the deadline would be the way to go. The reasoning for this is because we have so many young pitchers who could be forcing their way up to the majors by then. Also Jeff Sullivan wrote an excellent article about him which ill leave a link for.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/doug-fister-is-all-the-way-back-from-the-brink/

Projection: 3.26 Era, 177 Innings, 151 Ks, .244 AVG, 1.16 Whip, 12- 8, 3.7 war.

Mike Minor 4/28

Reasoning: Minor wants to come back as a starter while a team could potentially do that, teams will be much more interested in him as a reliever. Minor would be one of the best free agents for the As to sign, if we contend he's potentially a top five bullpen arm if we don't contend he'll bring a haul back at the deadline. Stabilizing our bullpen is an absolute must for the As, Minor would help with that. Minor was incredibly good with the Royals this season, and someone the As love to have as our closer for a few years. If he could be available for what MLBTR, he could be a huge steal to our team. Signing Minor could help us contend next season being a dominant reliever.

Projection: 2.01 Era, 73 innings, 88 Ks, 19 BB, .199 AVG, .99 Whip, 0-3 Ws, 2.8 War, 35/39 SV

Pat Neshek 2/14

Reasoning: Having always been a fan of Neshek and I would love him on this team. He was incredible this year, and would be another great addition to our bullpen. Helping stabilize our bullpen, reinforcing it along with Minor to go from bad to slowly great. Neshek is a leader in the clubhouse and a great personality. In addition to making our team better, he could also improve our clubhouse since I've traded a big leader in Healy. Neshek would be a great addition on and off the field for the As.

Projection: 2.55 Era, 71 Innings, 75 Ks, 5 BB, .201 AVG, .94 Whip, 6-1 W, 2.1 War, 2/4 SV

Jake McGee 3/18

Reasoning: McGee has not benefited from playing at the Rockies home, with the past two years his numbers at home ruining his stats. To put this in context he had a 2.62 era away from home this year, and a 2.91 away in 2016. McGee is a better pitcher than his era would show, his fip was 2.93 this year. He's an good to elite set up man who would give the As a terrifying top four in our bullpen. Adding McGee with the others would give us one of the best pens in baseball. We also need to add a good lefty since we traded Doolittle which McGee definitely is.

Projection: 2.77 Era, 66 innings, 13 BB, 66 Ks, .215 AVG, 1.05 Whip, 2-0 Ws, 1.7 War, 2/3 SV.

Chris Iannetta 2/10

Reasoning: To be frank I am all about Iannetta, so I definitely want him on this team. The best thing about this is even after posting a two war this season Iannetta will come cheap. Iannetta in my bold optimistic opinion has three war upside, does he likely reach that? Nope, but he will get close to it. Having posted a two war in 89 games, theres a decent chance he could exceed that by a good margin with more playing time. The As need help with our catching corps, until Murphy arrives and Iannetta is as good of a stop gap as any. Providing solid defense to go with a plus bat, Iannetta like most of baseball now has 20+ homerun upside in him. Iannetta actually hit better away from home this season, so it wouldn't be shocking to me at least to see him hit around 25. Overall, Iannetta could be an impact signing for the As.

Projection: 255/344/466, 24 HRs, 115 Gs, 54 BB, 61 Rbis, 53 Rs, 105 Hs, 92 Ks, 2.8 War.

Cliff Pennington 1/2

Reasoning: Pennington would be a good signing for a couple reasons. He's a good leader in the clubhouse, having him on our young roster would be important. Good defense always is important, which Pennington provides. He'll never provide much offensively but the As don't need that. He'll back up the infield providing good dense admittedly I preferred Sogard for this but Pennington is a solid replacement.

Projection: 255/334/355, 5 HRs, 88 Gs, 29 Bb, 19 Rbis, 54 Hs, 39 Rs, 55 Ks, 5/2 SB, .7 War.

Khris Davis extension 4/50

Breakdown: 11 -12 - 12 - 11 with 4 million singing bonus. Opt out after 3rd year.

Reasoning: Davis has an elite in that he's one of the three best power hitters in baseball, and any year could lead the league in home runs. Having significantly improving his walk rate this year, Davis has become a complete hitter this year. Modeling the extension after the Trumbo deal, this is a decent contract for both sides. Davis gets to stay in Oakland somewhere he loves, and the As lock up one of the best power hitters in the game to an affordable contract. After signing him Davis, we should move him to designated hitter. If he continues to improve his walk rate, this contract could turn into an extreme bargain. The As are adamant about locking up players to extensions and Davis is a good place to start. Plus he's also just an extremely fun player to watch.

Projection: 251/345/535, 47 HRs, 155 Gs, 84 BB, 131 Rbis, 109 Rs, 145 Hs, 188 Ks, 2.5 War.

Semien extension 6/45

Breakdown: 6 - 7 - 8 - 8 - 6 - 6, with 4 million signing bonus.

Reasoning: Semien is heading for a breakout season this year. The power, and on base ability will come together this season. Marcus likely doesn't have a place on this team much longer due to the amount of infield talent we have in the minors but we should extend him anyways. For one it keeps him relatively cheap, and makes his value in trades higher. The amount in the extension is a fair amount for the player Marcus has been so far, and is an amount he would take. This contract would end up being a steal for us due to him heading for a breakout and the amount we'd get back for him in an eventual trade. It's always nice to reward players for actually liking where they play like Semien does.

Projection: 261/345/477, 25 HRs, 155 Gs, 65 BB, 66 Rbis, 85 Rs, 151 Hs, 133 Ks, 21/24 SB, 3.9 War.

Matt Chapman extension: 7/85 with one club option worth 20 million.

Breakdown: 5 - 10 - 13 - 15 - 15 - 15 - 12

Reasoning: Chapman is our best player and could be a top twenty player in baseball over the next few seasons. With other worldly defense, his floor is extremely high. If Chapman manages to hit, you're looking at a super star. Extending Chapman would be a huge win by Kaval, locking up the face of the As to an affordable contract. Chapman signs this because it's a good amount of guaranteed money. We buy out his arb years to an affordable rate and lock up Chapman for a long time. Due to how good Chapman is going to be this extension would be a steal. Chapman is going to win gold gloves annually while potentially having multiple top ten finishes in MVP during this contract. In all honesty, It wouldn't be shocking for Chapman to become one of the top three third basemen in the league.

Projection: 231/328/512, 35 HRs, 151 Gs, 63 BB, 89 Rbis, 82 Rs, 133 Hs, 177 Ks, 5/7 SB, 6.5 war.

Lineup Vs RH:

0. Powell CF

0. Fowler LF

0. Olson 1st

0. Davis DH

0. Chapman 3rd

0. Semien SS

0. Pinder RF

0. Iannetta C

0. Wendle 2nd

Lineup Vs LH:

0. Powell CF

0. Fowler LF

0. Chapman 3rd

0. Davis DH

0. Semien SS

0. Olson 1st

0. Pinder RF

0. Iannetta C

0. Wendle 2nd

Rotation:

0. Manaea

0. Fister

0. Gravemen

0. Mikolas

0. Blackburn

Bullpen:

C: Minor

SU: McGee

SU: Neshek

SU: Trienen

MR: Dull

MR: Coulombe

MR: Hendricks

0. Garneau C

0. Iannetta C

0. Olson 1st

0. Wendle 2nd

0. Semien SS

0. Chapman 3rd

0. Davis DH

0. Powell CF

0. Fowler LF

0. Pinder RF

0. Brugman BOF

0. Pennington INF

0. Nunzez LF / 1st / DH / 3rd / RF

0. Manaea SP

0. Gravemen SP

0. Blackburn SP

0. Fister SP

0. Mikolas SP

0. Coulombe RP

0. McGee RP

0. Dull RP

0. Hendricks RP

0. Treinen RP

0. Minor RP

0. Neshek RP

Payroll: If I did my math right we stand at 80 million.

Where we stand: After all these moves the As are set up to not only be contenders but have an even stronger farm system. Through moves the As are set to have a potential top ten pitching staff in 2018, to go along with a top ten defensive team maybe even top five. While losing Lowrie, and Joyce definitely makes the offense weaker. The As will still be a good to great offense, and now we have improved the defense in two key positions. The offense will still be good without them, and now we have a much better defense. Catcher is an extreme area of need, something Iannetta will be a good place holder until Murphy is ready. Moving Davis to DH was necessary not only to improve the defense but potentially improve the offense. Davis will likely hit better as a full time DH. Trading Healy was also a necessary move to allow Davis to fully DH, and improve the defense.

The extensions to three of our players buys a lot of good will to the front office, and gives us fan favorites for a while. Now coming into this there was no intention to create a super pen but with how many quality relievers are on the market it should happen. The As bullpen that has been laid out would be a top three bullpen and could even potentially be the best in baseball if all breaks right. Now if the As somehow don't contend you have major trade chips in any of our top four bullpen arms. The rotation was a major focus, wishing to add cheap but effective arms. Fister with his regained velocity could be one of the bigger steals in the offseason if he manages to sustain the velocity. Mikolas has been a big target for mine ever since seeing his numbers in Japan where he has been outright dominant, odds are he doesn't breakout in the majors. Even if he doesn't he could be a effective pitcher, most likely a third or fourth starter which for five million a year would be a great deal. The farm has also significantly improved through the trades that have been laid out acquiring a few good to potentially great prospects while adding a lot of depth to the system. The As with this team most likely win 90 games which would clench them the first or second wild card.

Position Players:

Catcher: Iannetta Projection: 255/344/466, 24 HRs, 115 Gs, 54 BB, 61 Rbis, 53 Rs, 105 Hs, 92 Ks, 2.8 War.

1st: Olson: Projection: 241/363/537, 42 HRs, 153 Gs, 88 BBs, 117 Rbis, 115 Rs, 129 Hs, 193 Ks, 0/2 SB, 5.7 War.

2nd: Wendle: Projection: 271/301/417, 9 HRs, 147 Gs, 31 BB, 48 Rbis, 51 Rs, 143 Hs, 142 Ks, 5/0 SB, 2.1 war.

SS: Semien: Projection: 261/345/477, 25 HRs, 155 Gs, 65 BB, 66 Rbis, 85 Rs, 151 Hs, 133 Ks, 21/24 SB, 3.9 War.

3rd: Chapman: Projection: 231/328/512, 35 HRs, 151 Gs, 63 BB, 89 Rbis, 82 Rs, 133 Hs, 177 Ks, 5/7 SB, 6.5 war.

LF: Fowler: Projection: 282/331/452, 18 HRs, 145 Gs, 44 BB, 63 Rbis, 93 Rs, 162 Hs, 144 Ks, 25/29 SB, 3.5 War.

CF: Powell: Projection: 285/355/415, 8 HRs, 151 Gs, 58 BB, 44 Rbis, 123 Rs, 151 Hs, 94 Ks, 3.3 war.

RF: Pinder: Projection: 255/305/485, 27 HRs, 159 Gs, 35 BB, 77 Rbis, 63 Rs, 139 Hs, 157 Ks, 3.1 war.

DH:Davis: Projection: 251/345/544, 48 HRs, 155 Gs, 84 BB, 131 Rbis, 109 Rs, 145 Hs, 181 Ks, 2.5 War.

Rotation:

1st: Manaea: Projection: 3.43 Era, 195 innings, 184 Ks, .233 AVG, 1.24 Whip, 14-6, 4.1 war.

2nd: Mikolas: Projection: 3.65 Era, 181 Innings, 168 Ks, .244 AVG, 1.21 Whip, 11-6, 3.5 War

3rd: Gravemen: Projection: 3.87 era, 171 innings, 125 Ks, .257 AVG, 1.15 Whip, 3.0 war.

4th: Fister: Projection: 3.26 Era, 177 Innings, 151 Ks, .244 AVG, 1.16 Whip, 12- 8, 3.7 war.

5th: Blackburn: Projection: 4.21 era, 192 innings, 111 Ks, .263 AVG, 1.26 Whip, 7-14, 2.5 war.

Bullpen:

C: Mike Minor: Projection: 2.01 Era, 73 innings, 88 Ks, 19 BB, .199 AVG, .99 Whip, 0-3 Ws, 2.8 War, 35/39 SV

SU: Pat Neshek : 2.55 Era, 71 Innings, 75 Ks, 5 BB, .201 AVG, .94 Whip, 6-1 W, 2.1 War, 2/4 SV

SU: Jake McGee: Projection: 2.77 Era, 66 innings, 13 BB, 66 Ks, .215 AVG, 1.05 Whip, 2-0 Ws, 1.7 War, 2/3 SV.

SU: Trienen: Projection: 2.17 era, 77 innings, 82 Ks, 17 BB, .221 AVG, 1.12 Whip, 2.5 War, 1/2 SV.

MR: Dull: Projection: 2.99 Era, 81 Innings, 87 Ks, 18 BB, .217 AVG, 1.05 Whip, 6-3 Ws, 1.9 war.

MR. Coulombe: Projection: 3.66 Era, 53.2 innings, 40 Ks, 20 BB, .242 AVG, 1.34 Whip, 2-5 Ws, 1.1 war.

MR: Hendricks: Projection: 3.88 Era, 66 innings, 83 Ks, 25 BB, .219 AVG, 1.23 Whip, 3-6 Ws, 1.3 war.

Bench:

Garneau: Projection: 231/310/411, 6 HRs, 47 Gs, 11 BB, 25 Rbis, 17 Rs, 43 Hs, 55 Ks, .7 war.

Pennington: Projection: 255/334/355, 5 HRs, 88 Gs, 29 Bb, 19 Rbis, 54 Hs, 39 Rs, 55 Ks, 5/2 SB, .7 War.

Brugman: Projection: 263/331/417, 49 Gs, 5 HRs, 67 Gs, 21 BB, 22 rbis, 73 Hs, 28 Rs, 73 Ks, 5/7 SB, 1.5 War.

Nunez: Projection: 255/317/553, 77 Gs, 19 HRs, 25 BB, 55 Rbis, 37 Rs, 68 Hs, 127 Ks, 0/1 SB, 1.6 war.