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MLB Trade Deadline: Oakland A's Key Players and Odds

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With the trade deadline approaching, which players may be on the block and what are their chances of being dealt?

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The 2016 MLB trade deadline is coming up on Aug. 1 and, as most are well aware, the Oakland A's are shaping up as sellers. A variety of veterans may be headed to other pastures for the stretch run of the season. Who will go? Athletics Nation is teaming up to figure that out.

This article will highlight some of the more notable A's players who may be trade storylines. There are some facts and figures for each player, the odds each will be traded, and some commentary from our panel on whether they "should" be traded or not. Hope you enjoy and please chime in with your thoughts in the comments!

Rich Hill | LHP

Stats: 14 starts, 2.25 ERA, 76 ip, 90 Ks, 28 BB, 2 HR, 2.55 FIP, 3.0 bWAR
Age/Status: 36 years old, free agent after 2016

Summary: Best pitcher available on the market, with top-of-the-rotation talent. However, he's a constant injury risk; even without any major arm problems this year, he's already missed time with a groin strain and a blister. That risk will lower his value, and so will the fact that he's only a two-month rental with no extended team control. On the bright side, his low innings total could be used as a selling point for teams that want him to pitch deep into October. If the A's don't get the kind of haul they want, then as a last resort they could hold him and issue a qualifying offer in the winter, netting either another year of his services or a draft pick. (Keep up with the latest Hill rumors here.)

Odds of Rich Hill being traded
510SportsTake Alex Hall bernie_till_i_die Duncan Morrow JosephTDeClercq Tim Eckert-Fong Average
90% 90% 80% 99% 65% 70% 82.3%

510SportsTake: Would be 99% if not for the blister putting a minor wrench in the proceedings. Still think Hill returns something quality given his dominant starts and ace-like stuff.

JosephTDeClercq: Two weeks ago this number was greater. Just as many in the AN community have shared, I think the team is seriously considering just accepting a compensation draft pick for losing Hill next season or they'll re-sign to a qualifying offer.

Tim Eckert-Fong: I don't think the QO route is as unlikely as most. He's already been worth $17 million if you go by fWAR, and the allure of a draft pick could be better than what the market offers if Hill is unable to go before the deadline. Plus, a QO would make a return to Oakland much more likely, hampering his value on the free agent marketplace and enabling the A's to sign him to the three year deal we all want for our favorite lefty.

Josh Reddick | OF

Stats: 241 PAs, .300/.378/.441, 124 OPS+, 6 HR, 27 BB, 31 Ks, -1 DRS, 1.6 bWAR
Age/Status: 29 years old, free agent after 2016

Summary: Excellent two-way outfielder, a complete hitter at the plate with a Gold Glove in his trophy case and every intangible you could ask for. Not a superstar, but borderline All-Star level, and like Hill only a two-month rental. Also like Hill, he has an extensive injury history, and already missed a month this season with a fractured thumb. He's a huge fan favorite who would be worth keeping around for the long haul, but negotiations with the A's for a contract extension have hit a snag over the inclusion of a fourth year. He's also a candidate for a qualifying offer if he's not traded.

Odds of Josh Reddick being traded
510SportsTake Alex Hall bernie_till_i_die Duncan Morrow JosephTDeClercq Tim Eckert-Fong Average
50% 60% 50% 75% 75% 50% 60%

Alex Hall: The A's will be making a huge mistake if they don't keep Reddick. His demand of 4/$56M is extremely reasonable. It makes sense for baseball reasons, as a quality player at a position where external replacements might not be readily available and they don't have any sure things coming up in the system. It also makes sense for emotional reasons, as holding onto a star and fan favorite would go a long way toward getting the team back in the good graces of the casual fanbase. I normally don't want to sign players into their 30s, but I think Reddick can hold up through 33 and I hope they keep him -- though I admit it's starting to look unlikely, which is too bad.

Duncan Morrow: There's absolutely a chance for a qualifying offer here. But I always thought it was either extend or trade with Reddick, and they've got about a week to get an extension done. It's not looking good, folks.

Tim Eckert-Fong: Wouldn't be surprised to see Reddick involved in a bunch of rumors, not traded, then extended late in the year. It would be very A's to wait and see what his value is at the deadline before extending.

Sonny Gray | RHP

Stats: 18 games, 5.49 ERA, 101⅔ ip, 80 Ks, 38 BB, 15 HR, 4.68 FIP, 0.1 WAR
Age/Status: 26 years old, arbitration after 2016, free agent after 2019

Summary: It's a mystery! Sonny is having an awful year and it's not clear why, outside of a slightly altered pitch selection. He still has a strong reputation around the league, and his long-term team control means that he remains a valuable commodity. But the A's aren't known for selling low, and they have no reason to move their homegrown ace unless someone blows them away with an offer they can't refuse.

Odds of Sonny Gray being traded
510SportsTake Alex Hall bernie_till_i_die Duncan Morrow JosephTDeClercq Tim Eckert-Fong Average
15% 5% 20% 30% 10% 10% 15%

Alex Hall: This is simply not the time to trade Sonny. He has to have lost at least some value with his struggles, and if you're not dealing him for a #%@&-you haul then you don't do it. And you don't usually get one of those when the guy has a 5.49 ERA. Furthermore, Sonny returning to form is still the best shot they have at an ace in 2017, and that gamble is worth more than a prospect haul that might only be worth 80 cents on the dollar.

Duncan Morrow: If he was pitching well, or even just pitched well last night, I would put the odds closer to 50/50. But at this point, he's probably playing too poorly to get the sort of return that would justify trading him, even with the market where it is.

Danny Valencia | 3B 1B/DH

Stats: 299 PAs, .301/.351/.478, 124 OPS+, 12 HR, 20 BB, 66 Ks, -16 DRS, 0.5 bWAR
Age/Status: 31 years old, arbitration after 2016, free agent after 2017

Summary: Valencia has been one of the best hitters on the team, but he still has big platoon splits and it turns out he's completely unplayable at third base. That makes him sort of like a better version of Billy Butler, and apparently that's a profile that hasn't generated any trade interest, especially with a reputation as a potential "clubhouse liability." If the A's decide to move on, it might even be more likely that they DFA him than find an actual taker.

Odds of Danny Valencia being traded
510SportsTake Alex Hall bernie_till_i_die Duncan Morrow JosephTDeClercq Tim Eckert-Fong Average
25% 5% 35% 70% 25% 50% 32%

510SportsTake: Feels like the market never materialized. Plays the role the A's hoped they were getting when they signed Butler.

Tim Eckert-Fong: It's been reported that the market is soft and made to seem that he won't go, but the Rangers have been trotting Prince Fielder out at first/DH this year. He's now gone, and Valencia would make a whole mess of sense.

Jed Lowrie | 2B

Stats: 324 PAs, .277/.330/.341, 85 OPS+, 2 HR, 24 BB, 56 Ks, -7 DRS, -0.1 bWAR
Age/Status: 32 years old, signed for $6.5M in 2017, team option for 2018

Summary: Lowrie has lost a step over the years, but he's still a solid veteran who can play second base every day. That can be a big deal for a contending team scrambling to fill a last-minute hole, and his modest salary isn't an obstacle like it can be with other veterans. Even though Lowrie isn't killing it on either side of the ball, he still could draw legitimate interest, whether as a starter or as a great bench piece on a particularly deep squad. He's always a big injury risk but has stayed relatively healthy this year with only one quick DL stint. Meanwhile, the A's have a bevy of middle infield prospects that they should start looking at in the second half of a rebuilding season, and they have no reason to pay for a veteran placeholder.

Odds of Jed Lowrie being traded
510SportsTake Alex Hall bernie_till_i_die Duncan Morrow JosephTDeClercq Tim Eckert-Fong Average
50% 90% 50% 60% 40% 40% 55%

Alex Hall: Even if he doesn't go by Aug. 1, he's the kind of guy who can change hands in a mid-August waiver trade if another team suffers an ill-timed injury. I'll be shocked if he finishes the year in Oakland.

bernie_till_i_die: They have to get his salary off the books, but no contenders really need a player like Jed.

Marc Rzepczynski | LHP

Stats: 44 games. 3.30 ERA, 30 ip, 31 Ks, 19 BB, 1 HR, 3.52 FIP, 0.6 bWAR
Age/Status: 30 years old, free agent after 2016

Summary: Trusty veteran lefty reliever. Perfectly cromulent. Some team always needs relief help as the season wears on, and relievers can be dealt straight up for a low-minors lotto ticket or packaged in larger deals to balance the scales. Zep is a free agent after this season and Daniel Coulombe is already emerging as a new southpaw option anyway, and the A's have plenty more intriguing arms at Triple-A Nashville to get them through the year. There's really no reason to keep him, and not cashing in his value now would be a wasted opportunity. Zep has been traded at the deadline three times since 2011, precisely because he's a useful-but-affordable role player, and it'll probably be four soon.

Odds of Marc Rzepczynski being traded
510SportsTake Alex Hall bernie_till_i_die Duncan Morrow JosephTDeClercq Tim Eckert-Fong Average
75% 100% 85% 75% 80% 100% 85.8%

510SportsTake: Someone will be in need of an experienced left handed relief rental. Worth more elsewhere than to the A's.

JosephTDeClercq: Why would the A's keep him? His return will be light, however.

Ryan Madson | RHP

Stats: 41 games, 3.57 ERA, 40⅓ ip, 31 Ks, 13 BB, 6 HR, 4.59 FIP
Age/Status: 35 years old, signed for $7.7M in both 2017 and 2018

Summary: Premium reliever, mediocre closer. He's been faced with 28 leads, resulting in 20 saves, 3 holds, and 5 blown. His health appears to be for real (for now), but his long-term contract might lower his value enough to make a deal not worth it to the A's. They have a lot of young relief depth right now, but after working so hard to revamp their bullpen last winter it might be a good idea to keep around one top veteran for 2017.

Odds of Ryan Madson being traded
510SportsTake Alex Hall bernie_till_i_die Duncan Morrow JosephTDeClercq Tim Eckert-Fong Average
35% 25% 30% 40% 20% 40% 31.7%

510SportsTake: If he has given the A's his blessing to trade him, put it up to 50%. I think you have to do right by him given he just signed for 3 years.

bernie_till_i_die: The A's should do everything in their power to move Madson, but I get the feeling they won't -- and not because of a lack of demand.

John Axford | RHP

Stats: 42 games, 5.21 ERA, 38 ip, 35 Ks, 16 BB, 5 HR, 4.36 FIP, 0.1 bWAR
Age/Status: 33 years old, signed for $5.5M in 2017

Summary: Inconsistent reliever has had a down year. At his best can be a quality set-up man and a passable closer, but at his worst he's a gascan. Hard to see him drawing much interest or returning anything of value, especially with another pricey year on his contract, but the demand for relief can sometimes get high at the deadline.

Odds of John Axford being traded
510SportsTake Alex Hall bernie_till_i_die Duncan Morrow JosephTDeClercq Tim Eckert-Fong Average
35% 10% 40% 50% 20% 30% 30.8%

510SportsTake: Hard to see much of a market and may be better suited to ride out his contract with recent added pitches showing promise.

Alex Hall: Trading him now would probably be closer to a salary dump than anything of value. The A's will still need relievers next year and it's good to have too many. Hold on to him and see if he bounces back next year -- then he would be either a useful piece on a winning team, or a more valuable trade chip as a high-quality rental.

Stephen Vogt | C

Stats: 303 PAs, .285/.327/.456, 111 OPS+, 8 HR, 16 BB, 43 Ks, 1.7 bWAR
Age/Status: 31 years old, arbitration after 2016, free agent after 2019

Summary: The heart and soul of the A's. An All-Star the last two years, and the team's lone rep this season. He's a quality player, a clubhouse leader, and a massive fan favorite. He surely has some trade value, and the A's do suddenly have an exciting catching prospect knocking on the door in Triple-A, so it's not out of the question that he could be moved in a sell-high deal. But again there are emotional reasons to keep him, and with Coco seemingly nearing the end and Reddick looking less likely to be here long-term, perhaps Vogt will be the next popular-but-affordable player they choose to hold on to.

Odds of Stephen Vogt being traded
510SportsTake Alex Hall bernie_till_i_die Duncan Morrow JosephTDeClercq Tim Eckert-Fong Average
20% 10% 10% 35% 10% 20% 17.5%

bernie_till_i_die: Teams never trade for catchers midseason.

Duncan Morrow: I don't think the A's are ready to give the starting catcher's job to Bruce Maxwell full-time yet, so unless another trade yields a MLB-caliber catcher Vogt will stay.

Yonder Alonso | 1B

Stats: 313 PAs, .255/.323/.355, 86 OPS+, 4 HR, 28 BB, 42 Ks, -5 DRS, -0.3 bWAR
Age/Status: 29 years old, arbitration after 2016, free agent after 2017

Summary: Defense-and-OBP first baseman. Ignore the negative DRS, the dude can pick it. Also take the poor offensive numbers with a grain of salt, as he's hitting well above-average over the last two months. Still, though, his value is low and his appeal is likely to be limited to teams who suffer last-minute injuries at the position. This one could go either way.

Odds of Yonder Alonso being traded
510SportsTake Alex Hall bernie_till_i_die Duncan Morrow JosephTDeClercq Tim Eckert-Fong Average
10% 40% 10% 15% 10% 10% 15.8%

510SportsTake: Hard to see much of a market for Yonder and makes sense to keep him for another year while young players develop in AAA.

Duncan Morrow: Useful player with almost zero trade value due to his poor numbers on the season. Worth more on the A's than as a trade piece.

Coco Crisp | OF

Stats: 323 PAs, .237/.302/.399, 90 OPS+, 7 HR, 28 BB, 45 Ks, -14 DRS, -0.6 bWAR
Age/Status: 36 years old, vesting option for 2017 based on playing time

Summary: It's been a good run for Coco, but the end looks near. He's hitting better than anyone could have reasonably hoped given the damage his body has taken over the years, but even that best-case scenario is below-average. Making matters worse, he's now a downright liability defensively in the outfield. And yet, he's exactly the kind of crafty veteran who could help a team in the playoffs, or even deliver one of those defining, game-changing moments like a big pinch-hit or a heads-up baserunning move. A's fans would probably prefer to just have their long-time favorite retire in green and gold, but if someone makes a tempting offer then you have to consider it. Coco has 10/5 rights, with 10 years in the league and the last five on the same team, so he can veto any trade if he wants to stay put.

Odds of Coco Crisp being traded
510SportsTake Alex Hall bernie_till_i_die Duncan Morrow JosephTDeClercq Tim Eckert-Fong Average
5% 25% 5% 1% 40% 15% 15.2%

510SportsTake: Has 10-5 rights, so really would have to be a perfect storm, which I think is unlikely.

JosephTDeClercq: I'm starting to think Crisp may be on the move. Teams could really use a quality fourth outfielder and his acquisition cost won't be much.

Billy Butler | DH

lol just kidding

Roundup

Here are all the players, in order of their odds of being traded.

Odds of being traded
Player Odds
LHP Marc Rzepczynski 85.8%
LHP Rich Hill 82.3%
OF Josh Reddick 60.0%
2B Jed Lowrie 55.0%
1B Danny Valencia 32.0%
RHP Ryan Madson 31.7%
RHP John Axford 30.8%
C Stephen Vogt 17.5%
1B Yonder Alonso 15.8%
OF Coco Crisp 15.2%
RHP Sonny Gray 15.0%