FanPost

Green Grass: Where Does Our Yellow Brick Road End? Part II

Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports

Editor's Note: When your life needs moar Jeffrey August, AN is here to help... -Nico

So let's get something out of the way. How do I know anything about development? Here is my LinkedIn profile for those who care to see it. If you visit that site you will see that I am what folks refer to as a "Spoiled TechWorker." Specifically, I am involved with building and deploying large scale networks and data centers. This means I am in contact with commercial real estate professionals and civil engineers on a semi regular basis.

This is why I knew that Victory Court wasn't going to be a thing before folks talked about it, because I could ask people I knew personally questions about developing the site. It is also why I told people on newballpark.org, more than a year ago that the Texas Rangers would soon be following the Atlanta Braves in dumping a 20 year old stadium: I talked to people who were involved in planning to assemble land for the Rangers in Dallas proper as an alternate to Arlington.

One guy who was not involved in that effort to bring the Rangers to Dallas, as far as I know, but is involved in commercial real estate in Dallas, and I have met through my job is an NFL Hall of Famer that told me all about the first Hail Mary Touchdown pass in his own private box at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX:

Me and Roger

I don't tell you this, my fellow Athletics Supporters, as a bragfest, I tell you this so you understand that I do have connections which allow me to meet people who are involved in these processes and to offer proof. In short, I am not making stuff up or wish casting!

Why is this important? It is because of these connections that I have trouble seeing a baseball stadium rising up at Howard Terminal, not because of my personal opinion. If the A's choose this site and go full bore, I don't expect that we will see a new home for at least a decade (planning process plus remediation plus actual development). What follows here is a bit of history, the challenges and advantages. This will be quite a bit longer than the thing I wrote about Laney College and still not really thorough. This is a complicated site and thus the debate about the true viability that has gone on for a long time.

First, the history of Howard Terminal (and details on some of the challenges):

The first time I ever heard of this site was before I knew anyone involved in any of this stuff. It was the 2001/2 HOK study (I say 2001/2 because the study was conducted in 2001 and the timeline the team was seeking to meet started in 2002 and ended on Opening Day 2006, wishful thinking it proved to be). Here is what the proposal site plan (this was projected to cost $517M in 2001 which is $686M in 2016). Those cost numbers are not relevant for a couple of reasons: The new "plan" is not in the same spot as the old "plan" and the stadium will be smaller than the 42,000 building called for in 2001. But anyway this was the vision(s):

HT_JLS.0.jpeg

After this study was conducted, there was an environmental remediation that occurred at Howard Terminal. A lot of people refer to this as the "asphalt cap." This work resulted in covenants being placed on the land. Here is what is currently prohibited from being built on Howard Terminal (and for ancillary development to happen, this will have to change which does take an extensive process):

HT_covenant_page_1.0.jpeg

There is an (e) in this clause that is on page 7. It reads: "(e) Un-Capped park or un-Capped open space that exposes contaminated soil."

Also on Page 7 of the document is this:

4.02 Prohibitive Activities:

Except as otherwise provided by Sections 4.02 (b) through (e) below, the

Property shall not be used in such a way that will disturb or interfere with

the integrity of the existing Cap.

This is where the biggest hurdle, in regards to Environmental Remediation lies. Building a stadium on top of a platform without putting piers through the asphalt cap is not likely. This is not my opinion, but what I have been told by two Civil Engineers. Additionally (I don't know how to link the pdf, but I am happy to send it to anyone who wants to read it and form their own opinion. I aim to inform, not persuade), there are on going to be maintenance considerations for that cap that will need to be factored in.

But this is not the only hurdle. Transportation Infrastructure is also a pretty large, and costly challenge.

The first thing to consider is rail traffic. The Amtrak Capitol Corridor passes through JLS 30 times a day (15 Eastbound, 15 Westbound), Coast Starlight 2 (1 Northbound, 1 Southbound) and San Joaquin 14 times (7 in each direction). Add to that that the BNSF Railway and Union Pacific Railroad also pass through multiple times a day and it is clear that there will need to be infrastructure improvements that allow for both car and pedestrian access that doesn't cross with tracks at grade (overpasses).

Another thing to consider is the moving of Port Operations. While the port is not currently used to unload those gigantic cargo ships, it is used as a staging area. Moving this somewhere else within the port is a necessity. Depending on where and how this plays out, big rig access becomes a concern. This will have to be planned out from the freeway, through the surrounding area and to the Port.

I'm gonna stop right here and reiterate: None of this, in and of itself, is insurmountable. It is just complicated and costly. When people throw out numbers like $1.5B, it is this all encompassing plan and upheaval that is included in that number, not the stadium by itself.

One other consideration is BART access. It is about 1.25 mi from 12th Street BART to where the stadium was situated in the gorgeous renderings put out by OWB. It is about the same distance from West Oakland BART. While it is true that this can be mitigated by shuttles, or a light rail, or... whatever... That too is an added expense. Light Rail is extremely expensive to build and I wouldn't expect that to exist for a long time. Buses would be cheaper but would serve as a bottleneck because they can't carry as many people as a fully loaded BART train. If this is THE site, I'd be walking the 20-25 minutes it takes to get there from BART most of the time, or if my wife and kids were with me, I'd be driving and foregoing mass transit.

One other disadvantage is some NIMBYism. In this case it is the Longshoreman that expressed opposition when the idea was floated in 2013. Chief among their complaints is the future loss of Port functionality by closing the Terminal. I do not know how vociferously they would oppose today, but I do not believe the dynamics are all that different now as compared to 2013 besides the fact that there is no logistics company with a lease for the Terminal any longer.

Let's talk about advantages!

rawImagehowardterminal.0.jpeg

I don't think anyone who has seen this can say it isn't a beautiful idea, aesthetically.

Assuming the covenant issue can be dealt with in a way that allows for it, there is more than enough space for ancillary development. The site is adjacent to Jack London Square, though the HOK drawings place the stadium much closer to JLS than these OWB drawings do. How much it is "integrated" with JLS will really depend on the actual site plan that the A's go with. That could be different than either of the two drawings above (HOK and OWB). But that, integrating with JLS, is definitely a potential benefit for fans and the City.

Site acquisition is not a hurdle, this is owned by the Port and they have indicated a willingness to help make it happen. This an advantage for this site.

In summary, Howard Terminal, if it is THE site, will require much more preplanning and be much more expensive than most sites. It will not be very transit friendly. An EIR will need to be conducted (we should all assume that this will take about 18 months, though it could be done in as short as 12 or as long as 24). I am not saying it is impossible, or trying to persuade those who love the idea to give up hope. I will be there on Opening Day if the A's get it done, just like most of you.