FanPost

sc00by's Offseason Plan to Compete

The A's are in a situation where the can move to either compete or rebuild, depending on what you think of some of the cornerstone pieces of the current team.

As I have written elsewhere, the 2016 A's were a 69 win team, but received a lot of really poor production by players that either have been traded (Coghlan -1.5, Crisp -0.5 , released (Butler -0.4, Ladendorf -0.7), or can be kept in AAA (Alcantara -0.6, Overton -0.9, Surkamp -0.5). Just by replacing those players with replacement level scrubs, that’s an improvement in the win column. And after accounting for the loss of Hill and Reddick, the team as currently constructed I estimate is about a 75 win team, assuming the current crop of players don't improve or fall off a cliff.

Thus, depending on what you think of guys like Semien, Davis, Graveman, Gray, Healy, etc., going forward, you may be more interested in rebuilding or competing in 2017. If the team were to attempt to compete in 2017, I would proceed with a plan something along these lines:

Arbitration Eligible Players:

Danny Valencia - Tender

Yonder Alonso - Non-tender

Khris Davis - Tender

Steven Vogt - Tender

Sonny Gray - Tender

Liam Hendricks - Tender

Impending Free Agents

Ross Detwiler - Release

Sam Fuld - Release

Free Agency:

Dexter Fowler: 4 years, $60 MM

Peter Bourjos - 1 year, $2 MM

Eric Thames - minor league 1 year, $2 MM (similar to Kazmir's deal in 2013 with the Indians)

Daniel Hudson - 2 years $7 MM

Jesse Chavez - 1 year, $2.5 MM

Matt Joyce - 1 year, $5 MM

Trades:

Matt Olson for Carlos Gonzalez + $$$ - Rockies need a 1B, looking to move CarGo who has 1 year left on the contract. Seems like a good match to me. Add pieces to one side or the other as necessary.

Final Product:

C - Maxwell / Phegley

1B - Healy

2B - Wendle / Pinder

SS - Semien / Pinder

3B - Lowrie / Pinder / Chapman (at some point in 2017?)

LF - Davis

CF - Fowler / Bourjos

RF - CarGo / Bourjos

DH - Joyce

Rotation: Gray, Manaea, Graveman, Cotton, Triggs / Chavez

Bullpen: Doolittle, Madson, Hudson, Axford, Chavez, etc.

This is the version where we go heavy on FA and $, and not trades, which isn't the A's MO, but whatever. We keep more prospects in this scenario. This is an 85-ish win team, and with some good breaks (Gray going back to Cy Young status, Manaea looking legit, Healy continues mashing, etc.) that could be a real good team.

There are plenty of other options for building a competitive team in 2017 via FA and trades, some combination of upgrading the OF and either 1B/3B/DH.

Thoughts?