Over the past few weeks, I've been trolling the Winter 2015 Free Agent list pretty heavily, examining which players might fit the A's needs and pricetag to bolster the 2016 team and (potentially) beyond.
On the needs front, I have been focusing in-on starters, relievers, outfielders and 1st baseman.
On the pricetag front, I am focused on a) players that WON'T cost upwards of $100 million total, and b) players that won't receive or are ineligible to receive a qualifying offer from their current teams.
This is a fairly deep upcoming class, so there are actually a lot of possibilities who fit into these above parameters.
Over the next few months, I am sure that we'll all take a turn examining many of these possibilities in a ton of depth, but for this morning, I wanted to start with two of the most obvious (and familiar) names: Ben Zobrist and Tyler Clippard!***
In examining the field, these two guys really struck me as ideal pieces for the 2016 team.
Zobrist: Despite starting slow this season, Zobs has really picked it up over the past few months. He's hitting for more power than he has since his prime years in Tampa (2011/2012), walking more than he is striking out and doing so without a crazy uptick in BABIP. His defensive ratings have taken a dive, but he's still able to move around the diamond a fair bit. Thanks to his mid-season trade to the Royals, he's ineligible for a QO from the Royals, and thanks to his age (will be 34/35 for all of 2016) he's not going to get more than 5-years max (and even five years is a pretty big stretch). Given his versatility and resurgence and ability to hit right in the middle of a lineup against any-side pitchers, he's a perfect fit for any club - especially the A's who really value that sort of thing!
I'd guess that he'd command a fairly sizable contract - let's say, 4 years, $60 million, with perhaps a 5th-year, games-played sort of vesting option...that's a ton of money for a 34/35 year-old coming off a major knee injury...but, it's JUST money (which the A's have this winter and for the next few winters as well) and he would really fit well on the 2016 team (maybe even more so than he did on this 2015 team!)
Years 3-4/5 of that contract probably won't be great, but he'll still be useful, especially with Crisp and Reddick out after 2016 and Butler gone after 2017 (at the latest!) For example, in 2017 he could slide over to RF when Reddick departs (with Olson or Ravelo taking over 1st and Canha shifting to LF) and in 2018 and 2019 he could DH and/or play 2nd or 3rd depending on the development of Pinder, Wendle, Chapman and Nunez.
So, let's say the A's sign him for 4-years guaranteed at $15 million AAV, with a 5th year $15 million vesting option, with a $3 million buy out or something.
Next...
Clippard: When I look back on 2015, I remember being initially frustrated by Clippard and his wildness, but generally remembering that he got the job done more often than he didn't. He's clearly not the All Star he was with the Nats, but for the time he was with the A's, he was a perfectly serviceable setup guy, who performed decently as a fill-in closer. His numbers with Oakland (with the exception of his control) were better than his current numbers with the Mets, and I think in a return engagement with Oakland, he'd improve a little bit from those numbers to be mid-3.00s FIP, durable 7th/8th inning option for a team in need of someone just like that!
I'd say a 2-year, $18 million deal would be pretty fair for him.
So...we've got Zobrist at around $15 mil next season, and Clippard at around 8 or 9 million. I've pegged the A's payroll commitments for 2016 at right around $60 million (with guys like Fuld, Gentry, Scribner) all non-tendered, but pretty much everyone else brought back. That would put the A's at around $83 million to open the season - right around the figure they opened at in 2015.
I'd love to somehow fit in a buy-low starter in addition to the above two names, but without that, I think you're still looking at a pretty intriguing team, without sacrificing any draft picks or young talent:
Lineup vs. RHP
1. Burns - CF
2, Coco - DH
3. Zobrist - LF
4. Vogt - C
5. Canha - 1B
6. Reddick - RF
7. Valencia - 3B
8. Lawrie - 2B
9. Semien - SS
Bench: Sogard, Smolinksi, Phegley, Butler
Lineup vs. LHP
1. Burns - CF
2. Semien - SS
3. Zobrist - LF
4. Valencia - 3B
5. Canha - 1B
6. Smolinski - RF
7. Lawrie - 2B
8. Phegley - C
9. Butler - DH
Bench: Coco, Sogard, Vogt, Reddick
Rotation: Gray, Bassit, Hahn, Graveman, Nolin
Bullpen: Doolittle, Dull, Clippard, Pomeranz, Chavez, F-Rod/Abad, Doubront
Those are pretty deep, versatile lineups - the rotation is a bit young and unproven, but if the As' retain Chavez and Doubront as long/middle-men in the pen, you're effectively opening the season with 7 readily-available rotation options.
In AAA, you'd have a pretty deep stable of decent fill-ins on the pitching side - Brooks, Manaea, Overton (maybe Griffin at some point) for the rotation, Venditte, Otero, Coulumbe for the pen - as well as the position-player side (Ladendorf, Pinder, Walsh, Muncy, Wendle, Blair).
It would be super ironic to bring these two guys back, but plugging them into the projected 2016 team looks pretty interesting from my vantage point.
What do you think?
***I was tempted to come full circle and include Kazmir on this, but of the three recently-traded A's, I think he's the most non-essential fit and the one I think will be the most difficult to re-sign...