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Athletics beat Jarrod Parker in arbitration

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There were some unique challenges to predicting whether the A's or Jarrod Parker would win.

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Arbitrators awarded an $850,000 contract to starting pitcher Jarrod Parkeraccording to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, siding with the Oakland Athletics over the player. Parker had requested $1.7 million. The pitcher has exactly three years service time, and this was his first arbitration case.

Parker's case brought up unique challenges due to the lack of recent comparable players who had Tommy John surgeries immediately prior to their first arbitration hearing. According to Wendy Thurm, writing for Fangraphs, there have been no pitchers since at least 2007 who had their Tommy John surgery in the season immediately prior to their first arbitration. Other major league pitchers either had the surgery in prior seasons, giving them a chance to prove their continued success, or later, when their first raise was already established.

Parker is expected to complete his recovery from his March 2014 Tommy John surgery in mid-season, though it is unknown whether he will start. This was his second Tommy John surgery.

The projection by Matt Swartz at MLB Trade Rumors predicted a 2015 salary of $900,000. I had predicted, with very low confidence, a salary of $1,500,000.

This is the just the third time the Athletics have even taken a case to an arbitration panel under Billy Beane's tenure, and the club is 3-for-3. The team previously beat Juan Cruz in 2005 and Ariel Prieto in 2000, according to MLB.com's Jane Lee.

The A's have just one arbitration case remaining against recently-acquired reliever Tyler Clippard. After today's award, payroll for players earning at least the major league minimum stands at approximately $85 million.

2015 Oakland Athletics arbitration ($Millions)
Player Estimates Arbitration salaries filed
2015
Actual
2014
Salary
Service
Time
Swartz
Model
My
Estimate
Player
Demand
Club
Demand
Mid-
point
Tyler Clippard $9.300 $9.300* $8.850 $7.775 $8.3125 ??? $5.875 5.148^
Josh Reddick $3.700 $3.700 XXX XXX XXX $4.100 $2.700 4.050
Ike Davis $4.400 $4.400* XXX XXX XXX $3.800 $3.500 4.155^
Jesse Chavez $2.500 $2.400 XXX XXX XXX $2.150 $0.775 4.108
Brett Lawrie $1.800 $1.800* XXX XXX XXX $1.925 $0.516 3.055
Sam Fuld $1.600 $1.500 XXX XXX XXX $1.750 $0.800 4.140^
Craig Gentry $1.500 $1.800 XXX XXX XXX $1.600 $1.145 4.084
Ryan Cook $1.300 $1.300 XXX XXX XXX $1.400 $0.505 3.036
Fernando Abad $0.900 $1.400 $1.225 $0.850 $1.0375 $1.088 $0.526 3.073
Eric Sogard $1.000 $1.500 $1.425 $0.900 $1.1625 $1.075 $0.510 3.064
Jarrod Parker $0.900 $1.500 $1.700 $0.850 $1.2750 $0.850 $0.500 3.000
Fernando Rodriguez $0.900 $0.700 XXX XXX XXX $0.635 $0.600 3.053^
Total Estimate $29.800 $31.300
Total incl. actual $29.673 $29.673 $29.223 $28.148 $28.685 $20.373 $17.952
Remaining Arb $9.300 $9.300 $8.850 $7.775 $8.313
*I adopted Swartz's estimate ^Player was a Super-2 player "XXX" Settled before figures exchanged