Oakland A's bullpen revamp goes full Astros redux

The Oakland Athletics should soon officially announce the signings of right-handed relief pitchers Ryan Madson and John Axford. Madson signed a three-year deal totalling $22 million while Axford signed a two-year deal at up to $10 million.

The moves wrap up an early offseason period devoted to acquiring pitching, both rotation and relief, for the active roster. Right-hander Liam Hendriks and left-hander Marc Rzepczynski were acquired in trades while starting pitcher Rich Hill signed a one-year, $6 million deal.

Only one of Oakland's top seven relievers in relief innings pitched in 2015 is slated to return next year, Fernando Rodriguez. Closer Sean Doolittle also returns; injuries in 2015 limited him to 13 2/3 innings. To illustrate the turnover, compare the ERA and FIP of the 2015 bullpen to the projected 2016, as well as park- and league-adjusted ERA- and FIP- (for both stats, 100 is average and less than 100 is better than average):

A's bullpen, 2015-2016 comparison (all stats as RP in 2015)
2015						2016
(order by relief IP)		ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-	(ordered by role)		ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
RP1	Evan Scribner	4.35	4.33	111	109	CL	Sean Doolittle	3.95	2.99	101	75
RP2	Fernando Rodriguez	3.84	3.08	98	77	SU	Ryan Madson	2.13	3.09	53	77
RP3	Fernando Abad	4.15	5.50	106	139	SU	Liam Hendriks	2.92	2.13	72	52
RP4	Dan Otero	6.75	4.40	173	111	MR	John Axford	4.20	3.57	92	85
RP5	Drew Pomeranz	2.61	3.01	67	76	MR	Fernando Rodriguez	3.84	3.08	98	77
RP6	Tyler Clippard	2.79	3.96	72	100	LOOGY	Marc Rzepczynski	5.66	3.36	148	85
RP7	Edward Mujica	4.81	4.89	123	123	LR	Sean Nolin (as starter)	5.28	5.13	135	129
RP8	Pat Venditte	4.40	4.15	113	104	RP8	Ryan Dull	4.24	5.37	108	135
RP9	Arnold Leon	4.39	4.18	112	105	RP9	R.J. Alvarez	9.90	7.33	253	185
RP10	Eric O'Flaherty	5.91	4.17	151	105	RP10	J.B. Wendelken	AA/AAA

Depth has to be a concern in 2016, of course, with Dull, Alvarez, and Wendelken the remaining depth pieces on the A's 40-man. Arnold Leon is out of options, and he could be waived at the end of spring training as well. But considering the front line players weren't very good for the A's in the first place, 2016's projected bullpen is a massive improvement.

FanGraphs' depth charts based on the Steamer projection system project the A's will get 3.6 WAR out of their bullpen. This would have been good enough for 7th in the American League in 2015, up from -0.1 and 13th last year.

Going full Astros redux

I want to draw your attention back to the idea of going "full Astros" on a bullpen revamp. The Astros took a club that was 13th in the AL in WAR (0.2) and last in ERA (4.80) in 2014 and jumped to one that was second in WAR (5.3) and fourth in ERA (3.27) in 2015. To do that, they gave out $30.5 million for five seasons out of two right-handed pitchers, Luke Gregerson (1.2 WAR) and Pat Neshek (0.3), $1 million to LOOGY Joe Thatcher (0.3), and claimed another right-hander, Will Harris (0.3), off waivers.

The three quality members of the 2014 Astros bullpen, Tony Sipp, Josh Fields, and Chad Qualls, gave good to great performances once again in 2015 to round out the bullpen. The Astros went from giving 298 innings to 4+ ERA relievers to 92 innings, over half of which belonged to Chad Qualls.

To fill in the rest of the squad after spending heavily on the bullpen, the Astros:

(1) signed an infielder that was good enough until his injury let their star prospect pass him up on the depth chart,

(2) an outfielder on a short-term deal with interesting upside for low dollars in Colby Rasmus,

(3) acquired a bad body DH (11 triples though!) that ultimately only had a 99 wRC+ in Evan Gattis, and

(4) made a few other moves to shore up depth, like acquire Hank Conger and Luis Valbuena.

For a team that went from 70 wins to 86, the Astros did not make any huge free agent splashes in the offseason and they gave the prospects they've been building up a chance to succeed.

The A's have the task of knocking down 314 relief innings given to 4+ ERA relievers in 2015. To accomplish that, they've spent $32 million for five seasons out of two right-handed pitchers, obtained a LOOGY in Marc Rzepczynski, and picked up four seasons of another potentially elite right-handed setup man, Liam Hendriks, in trade for Jesse Chavez's walk year.

Two quality members of the 2015 A's bullpen, Sean Doolittle and Fernando Rodriguez, remain. I've penciled in Sean Nolin as the long reliever over the similarly out-of-options Felix Doubront because Nolin has greater team control remaining. Nolin did not pitch in relief at the major league level last season, so he's a little bit of a wild card here overcoming injury and a reduction in velocity perhaps caused by that long layoff.

To fill in the rest of the squad after spending heavily on the bullpen, the A's:

(1) have already traded for literally the same infielder in Jed Lowrie that should be good enough until an injury on the squad opens the door for an infield prospect to be called up like Joey Wendle or Chad Pinder,

(2) potentially will sign an outfielder on a short-term deal with interesting upside for low dollars in Hyun-soo Kim,

(3) will hope their bad body DH, Billy Butler, bounces back after a 99 wRC+ season, and

(4) will make a few moves to shore up other areas like the Rich Hill acquisition, such as sign another starting pitcher.

To go from 68 wins to 86, it doesn't look like the A's are going to make any huge free agent splashes in the offseason, and they're keeping to their commitment to let their infield prospects actually contribute to the major league squad as soon as they're ready.

Emphasizing velocity

That the A's have gone after relievers that greatly increase the bullpen's velocity profile has been extensively covered elsewhere, so I won't reinvent the wheel except to take note of a few interesting tidbits and ask you to read the rest.

First, from FanGraphs' Eno Sarris after the two-year, $10 million deal for John Axford was reported:

And the trio [of Madson, Hendriks, and Axford] comes in averaging 95 mph on their fastball as a group. That's important, too, given the fact that the Athletics had the third-worst bullpen velocity in the game last year. They should be able to improve that standing to at least league average, especially since they've also shipped out Evan Scribner and his 91 mph fastball in the meantime.

A's manager Bob Melvin told the San Francisco Chronicle:

"One of the things we probably didn't have that some of the other bullpens had were hard throwers, guys that come in and miss bats, throwing 95, 96 miles an hour," Melvin said. "We had a couple of guys, but it seems like most bullpens, every time that bullpen door opens up, someone is coming out of the bullpen throwing hard, so that was key."

It's a new look bullpen in Oakland, and that by itself is the most refreshing thing of all.