I’ve been thinking about this post for a while. I thought maybe someone else would write something like this, but I haven’t seen it.

Like most people who look at Athletics Nation, I’m a fan of the Oakland A’s. Most of us know Billy Beane is a fan of Bill James and Sabermetrics. Here is what I think are the staples of Sabermetrics:

• A walk is as good as a hit, and walks are great, getting pitch counts up is great
• Home Runs generate a lot of runs
• Strikeouts aren’t such a bad thing
• On base percentage is a better metric than batting average
• Sacrifices should be avoided
• Stolen bases are not a very good risk/reward play unless the percentage of success is very high

We have watched the A’s compile a higher than average record with a lower than average payroll using these ideas for the most of the last 15 years. But they have not had much success in the post season.

Now let’s look at the newly crowned World Series Champion Royals:

• Last in strikeouts in MLB for the last 4 years
• Low in walks
• Low in home runs
• High in stolen bases
• High in sacrifices

It appears the Royals are the anti A’s. Why would that succeed? There’s a relatively new theory on pitching, and that is: all a pitcher can control is walks, strikeouts and home runs, the rest is luck. I remember reading what Bill James said about this theory. He said "First of all I think the pitcher can control more than just those 3 things, 2nd of all this idea is brilliant and I wish I had thought of it."

It dawned on me why the Royals have been such a post season force the last 2 years. In the playoffs the pitchers are GOOD. Better than league average. Probably better at NOT giving up walks or home runs and probably better than average at striking guys out. So what do the Royals do? They don’t K, they don’t homer and they don’t walk. They put the most balls in play of any team. THEY TURN GREAT PITCHERS INTO LEAGUE AVERAGE PITCHERS. My friend who I was telling this to said "how can hitting home runs and taking walks be bad??" And my point is it is not, but it won’t work against good pitchers who throw strikes and put the ball where they want. If your offense succeeds because of home runs and walks get ready to have a rough post season against good pitching. The Royals offense doesn’t revolve around these things. The other thing I was thinking is, I’m not the only one who knows walks and getting deep into counts and getting into the bullpen should help the offense right? But the Royals do the opposite. The pitchers have learned to try to get ahead of guys working the count so the Royals swinging on the first pitch works because so many players don’t do it. The first pitch a Royal saw in the World Series became an inside the park home run.

Small ball works better in the post season than the regular season, because more of the games are close and low scoring. The Royals appear to manufacture runs with ease, they turn lead off walks into runs better than any team I have seen since the 87 Cardinals. The go 1st to 3rd, they steal, Joe Buck said on the telecast that they spontaneously sacrifice. No signs needed, moving runners up is 2nd nature to all of them. What I think this means is they probably lose out on some big innings, but they nickel and dime you to death. And it really works.

So my conclusion is the Royals have set back Sabermetrics 20 years. Then it hit me like the guy interviewing Kaizer Soce in the Usual Suspects. This team is the Anti Bill James team right? And they play 30 miles from his house??? Are you telling me James or his ideas have nothing to do with this team’s success? I read an article from 2 years ago where they were asking him, "who do you like in baseball these days?" And he said "Ben Zobrist does so many things well" That guy was picked up this year at the trading deadline by the Royals.

Then I thought maybe I have Sabermetrics pegged wrong, there are many ways to win and building a team which has a plan is one of them. I guess the obvious answer is Dayon Moore the GM, but whether he has some help or not, whoever put this team together has a plan and it sure works.