FanPost

Ryan's 2015-16 Oakland A's Offseason Plan...85-77 here we come

Arbitration-eligible (with projected salaries from MLBTR):

Ike Davis, $3.8MM - non tender

Sam Fuld, $2.0MM – non tender

Jesse Chavez, $4.7MM - tender and trade

Josh Reddick, $7.0MM – tender (and extend: 4 years 58 million; contract extension starts in 2016 and would run through 2019 at roughly 14.5 million a year)

Craig Gentry, $1.6MM - tender

Danny Valencia, $3.4MM - tender and trade

Fernando Abad, $1.5MM - tender

Eric Sogard, $1.7MM – tender and trade

Brett Lawrie, $3.9MM - tender

Felix Doubront, $2.5MM - non tender

Fernando Rodriguez, $1.3MM – non tender

Jarrod Parker, $850K - tender

A.J. Griffin, $508K (league minimum) - tender

Evan Scribner, $700K - tender

Impending free agents (re-sign, let go, or qualifying offer?):

Edward Mujica: Made $4.75MM in 2015 (let go…..far far away please)

Explain the toughest calls if necessary:

  • Craig Gentry tender and the Eric Sogard tender and trade (see trade section): As for Gentry, I think he bounces back to a worthy and valuable OF platoon player. People seem to forget just how important he was to our Oakland A’s in 2014 before the concussion and I’d rather have that upside than the reality of Sam Fuld (don’t get me wrong, I like Sammy, but come on). I say we gamble on the much higher upside between the two.

Free agents:

  • No. 1: Doug Fister (1 year, $10 million)

While I think landing Shark would be the best SP depth move this summer for Oakland, I think he will receive an offer that is too outlandish for the A’s to match. Thus, Beane attempts a Scott Kazmir diamond in the rough find, and thy name is Doug Fister. Doug has been a model of consistency (save his 2015 campaign) during his career and calling O.Co home will do wonders for Fister’s skill set. I’d pencil him in as the #3 SP in what would be a deep and talented rotation. The one year deal gives Fister a chance at a profitable overpay from overaggressive teams heading into the 2017 season.

  • No. 2: Brett Anderson (2 years, $27 million)

This will not be popular here, and trust me, I understand. Yes, he is comically injury prone and yes he is horrible at Twitter. Yet, Brett amazingly made 31 starts for the Dodgers in 2015 and had pretty good results (10-9, 3.69 ERA, 180.1 IP, 1.33 WHIP and a 1.5 WAR, his best since his 2010 season in Oakland). The A’s need a LH staring pitcher that can be very good, and Brett is both of those things. I am hoping he doesn’t cost too much, although my guess is 12-15 million a year. Francisco Liriano got 3 years/39 million last offseason, and I think 2 years 27 million for BA is reasonable, given his injury history. Look, there isn’t much on the Starting Pitching market and amongst them BA is easily one of the most talented in the class. Bring him in for Starting Pitching depth with a LH arm and an upside, that we are all well aware of (remember his start in Game 3 of the 2012 ALDS in Oakland, brilliant!). Believe it or not, he is only 27 years old. If he manages 31 starts next year, and 15 of those are in O.Co, I imagine he exceeds his 2015 year with the Dodgers and gives the A’s around 1.8 to 2.4 WAR while rounding out the rotation nicely.

  • No. 3: Mark Lowe (1 year, $5 million)

Yes, Lowe is old but he had the best year of his career in 2015 in shared time with Seattle and Toronto (1-3, 1.96 ERA, 2.57 FIP, 1.05 WHIP). Again, we need bullpen arms that we can count on, and Lowe has been good since that horrible 2013 season he had as part of that laughable LAA bullpen.

  • No. 4: Justin Morneau (1 year, 8.5 million)

Another classic A’s pickup. The former star is now a player riddled with question marks and injury concerns, and stands as yet another example of what a horrible concussion can do to disrupt a great career. That is the recipe that makes this a low-risk high-reward signing. Morneau finished 2015 strong (hitting .338 w/combined .894 OBP/SLG% over final month of the season), which is encouraging because he only played 49 games last year, this after a nice 2014 season of 135 games played with a .319 average, .496 OBP, 17 HR and 82 RBI. Also, for his career he hits RHP to the tune of .297 BA/.374OBP and /893 OPS. The A’s need an improvement in that category from their 1B/DH spot, and Morneau fills in and exceeds the dreams we had of Ike Davis in 2015.

These are short term additions that seek to make the A’s competitive in 2016 while not jeopardizing the future. Done and done! Now time to round out a contending team in 2016 that again, doesn't jeopardize the future.

Trades (or player releases)

No. 1: Jesse Chavez, Ryon Healy and Aaron Brooks for Marcel Ozuna . This may not be enough for an upside talent like Ozuna (despite the fact Miami had him playing in AAA much of last year) but, hey, it may be and I think it could well land him. Rumors out of Miami are that they are dying to get rid of this kid. The Marlins need ML ready Starting Pitching, and Jesse Chavez has proven better than Mat Latos (Miami traded Anthony DeSclafani and minor leaguer Chad Wallach for Mat Latos last year, remember?) and can look truly great for half of a season. The Marlins would also land SP depth in Brooks, who looks like he can hold down a number five SP spot on a squad like Miami in the National League. Ozuna can play all three OF spots and is just 24 years old, exactly the kind of player we need (young, high upside, low cost, OF corner spots, power, I mean, he gets the final rose). During his first full season in 2014, at just 23 years old, he hit .269 with 23 HR/85 RBI, and during his short MLB career has hit RHP very well (27 HR and 120 RBI). Yes please.

No. 2: Blockbuster Alert! Jesse Hahn, Sean Nolin, Raul Alcantara, Jaycob Brugman and Josh Phegley for Jonathan Lucroy and Scooter Gennett

With Beane indicating that Sonny and Reddick aren’t going anywhere, and his other quotes of an "Astros like rebuild plan for the future" (not a direct quote) I still believe the Oakland A’s young starting pitching coupled with a few great off-season moves could see this team compete for the AL West in 2016. This is my move that solidifies the lineup. Yes, this is a handful of young talent to deal for a 29 year old Catcher and a 25 year old 2B in Scooter Gennett who I will make simply a platoon infielder for our 2016 A’s, but Jonathan Lucroy has been consistently good on both sides of the ball his entire career and I believe the Oakland A’s and Milwaukee Brewers match-up perfectly, given each other’s strengths and weaknesses. Lucroy dealt with some minor injuries in 2015 that hindered his performance. The Brewers are fully rebuilding and have next to zero Major League ready starting pitchers. The A's have the pieces for this deal. Plus, the Brewers have a new GM, the young David Stearns, the youngest GM in MLB. My guess is that Stearns is ready to shake things up and this would be a nice splash, getting three Major League ready players, two that would make the Brewers rotation and a potential starting catcher, along with a nice potential arm in Alcantara. For Oakland this would be a dream come true (maybe only one fans dream, but still a dream nonetheless). Lucroy’s contract has him making just 9.5 million next year, which is a bargain for his skill set and position. Lucroy immediately makes the Oakland A’s better while filling a hole and making way for my next move. Meanwhile, Scooter Gennett is yet another type of player I think the A’s need to target and the type they have been targeting - young, low cost, players that have something to prove. He has distinct splits from the minors to the majors: Scooter has been miserable against LHP his entire professional career (.124 BA, .147 OBP in his MLB career) as opposed to a .307 BA/.339 OBP and 21 HR/103 RBI in his three year MLB career against RHP. He would be our starting 2B against RHP and a nice infield utility player, but is essentially a throw in for the prize of Lucroy.

No. 3 Billy Butler, Eric Sogard and 3 million in cash (yes cash to the Yankees) for Miguel Andujar (Yankees’ 20th best prospect, ETA 2017).

Salary dump while paying some of Butler’s 2015 salary. We say goodbye to a longtime favorite in Eric Sogard, great guy, but with Joey Wendle, Mikey White, Jesus Lopez, Renato Nunez, Matt Chapman, Richie Martin, Franklin Barreto, Matt Olson, and Chad Piner all approaching the Majors at vary ETA’s (coupled with my trade of Yairo Munoz and addition of Scooter), plus Lawrie/Semien already holding down starting spots, Sogard has no spot on the team as a utility infielder, which became evident towards the end of 2015. Adios Billy Butler, on the Yankees you will simply be a player, not a mistake. Honestly, he would have been just their 10th highest paid player in 2015, and in that stadium Butler may actually have a chance to contribute at DH while Sogard becomes a nice bench INF option for NYY. I really like Miguel Andujar, six-foot, 175 pound 3B from the Dominican Republic who the Yankees gave a $700,000 signing bonus before the 2012 season. He was in Class-A Charleston last year as a 19 year old and had mixed results, but scouts love his tools (especially his arm, which grades 70 and scouts say he would throw 95 MPH if he decided to toe the rubber) and say he may eventually be best suited for a corner OF spot. Add him to our every increasing pool of talent in the minors. Look, I think a teams 20th best prospect may be high for Butler, but my guess is a prospect in that range.

No. 4 Dillon Overton, RJ Alvarez, Yairo Munoz and Danny Valencia for Ken Giles and a PTBNL

Giles is one of the most underrated and exciting young bullpen arms in MLB, and his next few years will likely be wasted in Philly as they start a clear rebuilding project. This is primetime for the Oakland A’s to sneak in there and pry this talent away. He is only 25 years old and fits right into the Oakland A’s plan of building a talented young core that will grow together. He was amazing last year, going 6-3 with 15 saves, and a 1.80 ERA/1.20 WHIP with 87 strikeouts in 70 IP! Whoa! Not arg eligible until 2018, this is officially my trade target of the summer. The Phillies acquire some nice young prospects – albeit, none of the A’s prime possessions – and get two young Major League ready player to help in their attempt to assemble an actual Major League ready roster. I'd be willing to throw in Richie Martin over Yairo Munoz or Chad Pinder even, if that is what it took to complete a trade for Giles.

My 2016 Oakland Athletics:

VS. RHP: VS. LHP

1.) CF Billy Burns 1.) CF Billy Burns

2.) 1B Mark Canha 2.) SS Marcus Semien

3.) RF Josh Reddick 3.) C Jonathan Lucroy

4.) C Stephen Vogt 4.) 1B Mark Canha

5.) LF Marcell Ozuna 5.) 3B Brett Lawrie

6.) DH Justin Morneau 6.) DH Justin Morneau

7.) 3B Brett Lawrie 7.) RF Marcell Ozuna

8.) SS Marcus Semien 8.) 2B Joey Wendle

9.) 2B Scooter Gennett 9.) LF Craig Gentry

SP1: Sonny Gray

SP2: Brett Anderson

SP3: Chris Bassitt

SP4: Doug Fister

SP5: Sean Manaea (Beane recently mentioned Manaea possibility for rotation, yes!)

SP6: Kendall Graveman

Closer: Ken Giles

SU1: Sean Doolittle

SU2: Mark Lowe

SU3: Drew Pomeranz

MRP: Fernando Abad

MRP: Ryan Dull

MRP: AJ Griffin

MRP: Fernando Rodriguez

LRP: Evan Scribbner

Complete Roster 25 man roster:

C: Jonathan Lucroy/Stephen Vogt

1B: Stephen Vogt/Justin Morneau/Mark Canha

2B: Scooter Gennett/Brett Lawrie/Joey Wendle

3B: Brett Lawrie

SS: Marcus Semien

LF: Marcell Ozuna/Craig Gentry/Mark Canha

CF: Billy Burns/Coco Crisp/ Craig Gentry

RF: Josh Reddick/Marcell Ozuna/Craig Gentry

DH: Justin Morneau/Jonathan Lucory/Stephen Vogt/Jake Smolinski

Bench: Joey Wendle, Rangel Ravelo, Craig Gentry, Jake Smolinski, Coco Crisp

My 2016 Oakland A’s. The young core of starting pitching is only slightly changed, with the trading of Jesse Hahn and Sean Nolin. Yet, Sean Manaea, Sonny Gray, Chris Bassitt and Kendall Graveman remain. Likewise, a massive upgrade took place in the bullpen, adding an elite and exciting young arm in Ken Giles, pushing Sean Doolittle to an 8th inning role, and supported by trustworthy arms in setup like Ryan Dull, Drew Pomeranz, and the signing of Mark Lowe. Likewise, two veteran arms join the rotation: Brett Anderson and Doug Fister, making it better than the 2015 rotation that showed a ton of promise before everyone got hurt. I love the idea of Sonny going 6 innings strong, handing the ball off to Dull/Pomeranz to get through the 7th, Mark Lowe and Sean Doolittle close down the 8th, and young Ken Giles saves it.

On the offensive side of the ball, the Brewers will trade Jonathan Lucroy this offseason, and I believe the Oakland A’s need to crash that party before it starts. An everyday catcher like Lucroy allows Vogt to catch every now and then, while also playing more at 1B/DH. Lucroy seems to be obtainable for a combination of ML ready Starting Pitching and a few nice prospects. Likewise, Marcell Ozuna is the perfect Oakland A’s target for an OF corner spot, providing young and cost controlled potential with pop! Justin Morneau comes over to Oakland in a classic Beane signing, and Morneau provides the pop and value we were all hoping Ike Davis could bring in 2015. I like the idea of Burns setting the table, followed by a breakout candidate in Brett Lawrie, Jonathan Lucroy, Josh Reddick, Marcell Ozuna and Justin Morneau. I also think Marcus Semien and Mark Canha are going to have very good years, and this rounds out a nice (albeit platoon heavy) lineup. Also, there is the chance that Renato Nunez or Matt Olson break through and contribute in 2016, I really hope one or the other will. Most importantly, not one of the A’s top 5 prospects were traded in the making of this roster, and the A’s payroll, after all of these moves and by my quick calculation, is sitting in the $88-90 million dollar range for opening day. Very doable. Could even go and add a Jimmy Rollins or another veteran in the same light to complete the roster.

A fan by the name of DaRubiesSLOKingsA's can dream, can't he!?

Prediction: 85-77, 2nd Wild Card