This is Part 2 of the Free Agent Targets for Oakland posts. The first part, which you can find HERE, talks about the offensive targets for the A's, as well as lays out likely budget and salary restrictions. Again, this is not a wish list, this is a look at realistic players the A's can target to fit their needs.
Team Needs
The A's have a very solid rotation as it already stands, it will include 5-6 players out of Gray, Chavez, Graveman, Hahn, Bassitt, Pomeranz, Brooks, Parker, Griffin, Nolin, Doubront, and maybe top prospect Sean Manaea. On paper it looks like the A's have plenty of talent, which is ultimately true. However in reality, everyone, with the exception of Gray, provides either inexperience, which leads to inconstancy, or dramatic injury history. So, even though the A's depth runs deep, they do not have the right pieces to put together a notable, successful, and long lasting rotation.
The starting rotation will be a primary source of need if the A's expect to compete in 2016. Due to the market rate of starting pitchers, it may also be the place where the A's will have to spend the most money. However the 2015 Free Agency class does provide plenty of quality starting pitchers the A's can take a look at.
Starting Pitchers
Chris Young - A veteran pitcher could be just what the A's are looking for. Someone with experience and consistency, who can fit into a rotation of youngsters.Young is one of the most sought after veterans available. After missing almost all of 2013, he came back and has stayed healthy for 2 seasons in a row, all while posting excellent numbers. Over the past 2 seasons, he has pitched to a 3.40 ERA, and 1.17 WHIP. Almost as if he gets better with age, he pitched to a 3.06 ERA and 1.09 WHIP last season at age 36. He is not a high strikeout guy, but produces weak contact. If given a good defense behind him, he can easily pitch to the same type of numbers in 2016. He seems like he still has plenty in him.
Projected Salary: $10mm/AAV. He is the perfect 1-year signing for the A's, as he will provide veteran leadership and help solidify the rotation. With the A's having plenty of young talent that can develop, he will be a stop gap for the 2016 season, while the rest of the rotation gets worked out for the following year.
Doug Fister - It seems like Fister has hit the decline, but this years numbers were a bit of a fluke. Before this past season he had career averages of a 3.34 ERA, and 1.19 WHIP. He was dominant all the way up until this season, even pitching to a 2.41 ERA as recent as last season. While he may never repeat his 2014 season, he is a very good bounce back candidate, as he is only 31 and has a long history of success. Because of his 2015 mess up, he can be had for cheap.
Projected Salary: $10mm/AAV. His contract will be interesting as the A's could go two routes with him. Knowing he is a bounce back candidate with a lot of past success, they may want to lock him in longer while he is still cheap, at something like 3-4 years. If the A's feel like they don't want to take that risk, and he may not snap back into his old self, they could do something like a 1-year contract with a 2nd year option. Either way, he is a good guy to have in the rotation.
Matt Latos - I almost didn't include him in this section, because he may be just out of the A's spending range. But, because of his age and past results he is too good to pass up. Latos was one of the best pitchers in the NL from 2010-2013. Then he had an injury and took a while to recover. When he came back in 2014, he pitched well, but didn't seem like his same self. He was traded 3 times since then and had a terrible 2015 season. However, this is a guy who doesn't turn 28 until December, and had a career 3.34 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and an 8.1 K/9 in almost 1000 IP, prior to this season. All signs point to a comeback and dominance over the next few years as he enters his 30s.
Projected Salary: $12mm/AAV. The A's should take advantage of a pitcher this good, while they can. He is young enough to sign to a very long term deal. Especially if they plan on extending Gray, they should add a guy to compliment him for many years to come. After all, Latos was almost as good as Gray for the past 5 years. The A's should go out of their element and sign him to a 5-6 year contract, locking in a CY Young caliber pitcher at a very low price tag. Or at the very least, sign him to a 1-year contract with multiple team option years.
The Stretch Players: These guys are just out of the A's price range, but would be great additions if the front office is willing to stretch their money a little more.
All of these players are very similar to each other and will be looking for about the same type of contract. Around $13mm/AAV and 3-4 years. They would also all be excellent signings, if the A's are willing to pay a little more towards a starting pitcher. However, these signing are unlikely, as not only are they out of Oakland's price range, but 2 of the 3 players have a Qualifying Offer attached to them.
Scott Kazmir, Ian Kennedy (QO attatched), Yovani Gallardo (QO attached)
Kazmir does not have a QO attached, but has had issues staying consistent down the stretch, as he has pitched to a poor 2nd half in both of his past 2 seasons.However, he may be a great addition, as he is already familiar with Oakland and the team. The A's know they can get at least a phenomenal 1/2 season out of him. That could be worth the price for them.
Kennedy is a bounce back candidate, and has a history of being a dominant workhorse pitcher. Even with the QO attached, his lower price tag may be worth it to lock him in for now, and the near future.
Gallardo has a history of success, even when pitching in a notorious hitters park in Texas. If he can repeat his success, and play in a pitchers park, he would be an excellent #2 or #3 in the A's rotation.
Conclusion
Starting pitching improvement is a must to make a competitive A's team. This year's free agency class has plenty of them, from the un-signable to the reasonably priced. The A's should make an effort to target at least one, as there are some great deals out there this off-season.
