At last the time has come, when all Free Agent players are known and available. This article will take a look at all realistic targets the A's can view to fit their needs. This is not a wish list, this a realistic approach to players using a combined salary projection system, as well as a strong focus on player positions that are actually in need.
To understand the A's spending ability, we can look at two things, starting with payroll: In 2013 the A's ended the season with a $71mm payroll. They made it to the ALDS, and went 5 games against the Tigers. In 2014, the A's started the season with an $82mm payroll, they made it to the Wild Card game and lost. In 2015, the A's started the season with an $84mm payroll, they did not make the playoffs. The reason I lay this out is so it can be understood, that the A's do not increase their payroll dramatically year to year. It is safe to assume, that after a disappointing 2015 season, the A's will probably not have a starting payroll higher than $90mm in 2016, and that is a very generous estimate. With about $58mm in guaranteed contracts for 2016 already in the books, the A's will have about $25-$32mm to play with. Keep in mind, that it is unlike Beane and the front office to spend just to spend, so using all of that money on just a couple players is very unlikely. Especially, with rumors of using some of it for possible extensions of current players.
The 2nd thing to look at is past contracts. The biggest AAV (average annual value) contract the A's have ever done was Coco Crisp, who will be making $11.5mm this year. Before that it was Eric Chavez, who made $11mm AAV, and Ben Sheets who made $10mm AAV. Keep in mind that all those large contracts did not turn out as planned. As we can see the A's don't like handing out large AAV contracts for that exact reason. Hence, why the "biggest" free agent signing done last year (when the A's had the highest opening day payroll in history) was Billy Butler at just $10mm AAV. There is nothing indicating the A's are going to change this method. It is highly unlikely that any player either signed via free agency, or traded for will make more than Coco Crisp this year. Even though the A's have money to spend, they always prefer low cost players, as to minimize financial risk.
Team Needs
The A's have many options they can play around with due to a few players who can play more than one position. To summarize this we can use Danny Valencia and Brett Lawrie. Valencia can play both 3B and OF, while Lawrie can play 3B/2B. So if the A's want to put Lawrie at 2B and Valencia at 3B, they need a 3rd OF, as using Fuld, Smolinski, or an injury prone Crisp every day as starters will hurt the lineup. Even the newly acquired Lambo is not an effective starter. Leaving only Reddick, and a soft hitting Burns as the only viable starting outfielders.
If the A's want to put Valencia in the OF and Lawrie at 3B, then they will need a 2B. If Lawrie is put at 2B, with Valencia in the OF, then they will need a 3B. Since it is much easier to sign an OF, then an impact infielder, it seems the most likely route that Melvin will take is the first one I mentioned, which solidifies the infield, and creates one spot open for an impact bat in the OF.
Outfielders
Gerardo Parra - He will be turning 29 in May, which makes him one of the younger OF options. He has the ability to play all 3 OF positions, but will most likely be slotted in at LF or CF if on the A's. He is an above average hitter that shows a little bit of power and a little bit of speed. In 2015 he hit .291/.328/.452 with 14 HRs, and 14 SB. While his batting average may have been inflated a bit last year, he is still a .277 career average hitter. His defense has declined a little, but he is still a two time Gold Glove winner, and can show flashes of elite defense at times.
Projected Salary: $9mm/AAV, due to his age and consistency, it would be beneficial for the A's to sign him for a longer term contract of 3-4 years.
Rajai Davis - Already familiar with Oakland after spending 3 seasons there, Davis is back on the market looking for a new home. He is coming off a season where he hit .258/.306/.440, with 8 HRs, and 18 SB in only 370 plate appearances. At this point in his career, he is like a younger, healthier Crisp. While we can expect his power to decline a bit if he makes the move back to Oakland, he is still a major threat on the bases. He is someone who could easily steal 20+ bases if given a full season of playing time. His defense is still above average, even at age 34.
Projected Salary: $7.5mm/yr. 1-2 year contract
David Murphy - Coming off his best season in 3 years, he is proving that he's still got it. In 2015 he hit .283/.318/.421 with 10 HRs in 361 AB. This isn't far from his career average of .274/.333/.432, and he has hit 10+ HRs in every full season in his career, except one. While he isn't glamorous, he will provide some value for his price tag in the OF.
Projected Salary: $7mm/AAV. The Angels declined his $7mm option, and he would probably be happy to get just that again. However he will be looking for more than just 1 year at that price. He would be a low risk signing for the A's to lock him in for his age 34-35 season, on a 2 year contract.
Marlon Byrd - At age 37 his power is still just as strong as it has ever been. He hit 23 HRs last season, and has hit 20+ HRs over the past 3 seasons. He has a career batting average of .275, and can still be an immediate threat in the lineup.
Projected Salary: $8mm/AAV. The Giants declined his $8mm option. He will turn 38 half way through the 2016 season, but his power will stay. A 1 year contract, as the A's try to sort out their OF for 2017, would be a good signing.
The Cheap Ones: Here are some low priced, small impact OF that would be beneficial for the A's, either as a starter, platoon player, or backup.
Chris Young- $6mm/AAV, Nori Aoki - $6mm AAV, Matt Joyce- $6mm AAV, Alejandro De Aza- $5mm/AAV, Ryan Raburn- $3mm/AAV
The Stretch Players: These guys are just out of the A's price range, but would be great additions if the front office is willing to stretch their money a little more.
Austin Jackson- $12mm/AAV
Denard Span- $12mm/AAV
Second Base
It was just reported that Lawrie prefers to play 3B, which is his main position. If the A's decided to go with Lawrie at 3B, they can move Valencia to the OF, leaving a hole at 2B. Unfortunately, there is very little affordable talent at that position in free agency. So unless the A's go the trade route, they will have to stretch their money a bit. Here is the only reasonably priced 2B available, which is very good target, but there will be a lot of competition:
Howie Kendrick - He is one of the most consistent players out there. You can pretty much expect exactly what you will get every season. His career averages are almost exactly what he has been hitting over the past 4 seasons: (.293/.333/.423), and he hit 9 HRs and 6 SB in 117 games last season, which is just about in line with estimates of 10-15 HRs, and 10-15 SB in a full season of play. He's a big contributor to any team, as long as he stays healthy.
Projected Salary: $12mm/AAV. He also has a Qualifying Offer attached, but his low price otherwise makes him worth it. He is looking for a 4 year contract.
Third Base
With grumblings about the 3B position being up in the air, this is an area that could be filled via free agency. If the A's decide to go with Lawrie at 2B and Valencia in the OF, or if one of them is moved, the A's will need someone to fill in.
David Freese - He is mostly an average player, with potential to be above average in certain areas. However, he is one of the best affordable options available at his position, as everyone else is below average or very expensive. He could be a great fill in, especially if the A's don't already have someone to play. After all, Freese is a career .276/.344/.417 hitter, and he just hit 14 HR in 121 games last season. He will be age 33 for most of next season, so a major decline doesn't seem to be coming just yet. He can still be a good contact hitter with the ability for 10-15 HR in Oakland.
Projected Salary: $10mm/AAV. 2 year contract.
Juan Uribe - If the A's find themselves in a pickle at the 3B position and just need a 1 year fill in, they may want to take a look at Uribe. Even though he is 36 years old, he sill managed .253/.320/.417 line between 3 teams in 2015, and hit 14 HR in 119 games. That is right in line with his career averages, and he can probably do close to that in 2016 as well. For a cheaper price tag, he may play just as good as half of the other 3Bs in the league, and provide veteran leadership.
Projected Salary: $6.5mm/AAV. 1 year contract.
Duel Position Players
They can help out the A's in multiple places as a starter, and fill in for players with any injuries or fatigue that may come during the season. Although the A's would love to have players like Ben Zobrist and Daniel Murphy, they realize that both will have too much competition, as well as be significantly out of their price range. However, there is one impact player who is affordable, that may be the perfect fit for the A's:
Steve Pearce (1B, 2B, OF) - He had a very down 2015 season, hitting only .218/.289/.422, however he still managed 15 HRs in only 294 AB. His power is no fluke, as he hit 21 HR in only 338 AB last season as well. While he does hit for a lower average (career .247), he is a good power threat to have in the lineup, with potential for 25-30 HRs in a full season. His multiple position eligibility makes him a huge asset, as he can mix and match with Lawrie, Valencia, and Canha as needed.
Projected Salary: $7mm/AAV. 2-3 year contract
Conclusion
Luckily, the A's don't have to dig deep into mediocre free agents to fill their weak spots, as they have had to do in past years. As they have flexibility with the positions they need, and plenty of free agents available.