Count me in the group that sees a full-blown pyrotechnics show this winter, but for the sake of this discussion let's think about what happens if the Oakland Athletics don't cash in their most prized asset.

The A's finished 2015 with a less-than-nice 68 wins, their lowest win total in the Billy Beane era. We've seen Beane trade better players than Sonny following better seasons than 2015. Beane, however, outright said that a Gray trade is "Not happening. Not even slightly." back in August.

That could be a signal that the A's think their awful 2015 was the result of a bad bullpen, bad luck, and other fixable problems. We are talking about a team that was two games behind eventual division winner Texas on the day before Scott Kazmir was traded (the unofficial end of competitiveness).

The goal, then, remains the same. That goal is to win the division and play in October. You hold on to Sonny Gray because, and only because, you think it makes you more likely to play in October. The goal isn't to watch Sonny Gray pitch for a 70-win team.

So let's say Sonny Gray is an ace, a cornerstone of the franchise, and a player too good to give up. Let's write off his struggles in the second half this past year, and the year before (his August/September ERA's in each of the past two seasons have been north of 4.00). Let's certainly not read this Baseball Prospectus article from last month. Let's not ponder the impact of a great trade haul from Chicago or Boston or Texas. Let's just say that he's ours next season.

The first thing to do is to take an honest inventory of your current team. You've got:

• Vogt/Phegley
• Davis/Canha
• Lawrie
• Semien
• Valencia
• Sogard
• Crisp
• Burns
• Reddick
• Fuld
• Butler
• Gray/Graveman/Hahn/Bassitt/Chavez/Nolin
• Doolittle/Dull/Pomeranz

That's 22 players, with three open bullpen spots. There's some clear dead weight on the roster that doesn't need to be back next year (Fuld, Butler, Davis, Sogard). But on the other end, you have very little in the way of tradeable assets. By my count, your prime trade candidates are:

Jesse Chavez (almost certain to be dealt)
Stephen Vogt
Josh Reddick
Brett Lawrie
Drew Pomeranz
Danny Valencia

The rest of the guys on the team are either worthless (BUTLER), or still too good of a value to deal at their current market price (e.g. Bassitt, Phegley).

There's always a need for starting pitching, and there's always plenty of mid-rotation talent on the free agent market. It's somewhat likely, given recent history, that the A's will add a veteran starter to their rotation via the free agent market. There are a few interesting bats on the free agent market, as well.

Fixing the bullpen should probably be items 1, 2, and 3 on the to-do list this winter. Adding at least two outfielders (one capable of covering CF) should also be a priority. Left-handed bats are in need. A utility infielder (or starting SS with Semien moving to utility infielder) will also be something to target.

So, a few quick ground rules:
1. You don't say "tank in 2016 and play for the draft pick." Because the A's have never really done that and they would likely trade Gray if that were the plan.

2. You can't offer a contract of more than $100M to any free agents.

That's it. You have our current roster to work with, and you need to envision a playoff caliber team given our circumstances. How do you pull it off? Who are some of the guys you like, who won't cost Sonny Gray in a trade or $100M or more in free agency?

Do you cash in a prospect or two for a stud reliever like Aroldis Chapman, or a star outfielder like Carlos Gonzalez? Do you count on big steps forward from talented players like Brett Lawrie and Sean Manaea? Do you trade bad players for good players (yes plz)?

There are all kinds of possibilities ahead, but the question I'm interested in answering is: How do you get Sonny Gray on the mound for the A's in Game 1 of the 2016 ALDS?

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