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Continuing the October-long theme of identifying potential A's acquisitions, let's take a look at some free agent hitters.
The A's have a pretty glaring lack of left-handed hitters. Their current list of left-handed hitters is:
- Josh Reddick
- Stephen Vogt
- Ike Davis
- Eric Sogard
- Sam Fuld
So, basically it's Reddick, Vogt, and a trio of guys who don't belong on next year's team. You also have some switch-hitters in Billy Burns and Coco Crisp. At the AAA level, you have Joe Wendle and Matt Olson. On the whole, though, the A's are very thin when it comes to left-handed bats. This is a big part of the reason why I'm so intrigued by trade targets like Scott Schebler, Dan Vogelbach, and Andre Ethier.
I don't think the A's will be players for talents like Jason Heyward, Alex Gordon, Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, or Chris Davis. Maybe we'll be pleasantly surprised, but for the purpose of this exercise we'll keep it to guys with a lower price tag.
So I have identified a list of guys, many of whom are former A's themselves, who could be on the Athletics' radar.
Alex Avila
This one seems like a pretty perfect fit. The A's signed a 29 year-old former all-star coming off a down year last season, in Billy Butler. That contract, obviously, is a nightmare, a mistake, and a Loaiza-sized blight on Billy Beane's record. Avila's similarities to Butler, however, are based mostly on age and walk-year production, rather than skill-set.
Avila is the rare under-30 free agent. He will be entering his age 29 season. The only 32-or-older players who the A's have given significant playing time to in the past several seasons are Coco Crisp and Ben Zobrist. There have been role players like Nick Punto and Sam Fuld, but for the most part the A's seem to value players who are in their statistically-likely prime years.
Avila is coming off of a dreadful year, where he hit .191/.339/.287, while battling injuries that limited him to 219 PAs in 67 games. He has suffered a string of concussions in the past several years, which is scary. It's possible that his 2015 is a sign of an early decline brought on by concussions, but an optimist might hope for a career trajectory similar to Russell Martin's, who also had a mid-career lull in his late 20s before re-establishing himself as one of the best catchers in baseball over the past few seasons.
It's worth remembering that the A's have Josh Phegley to serve as the right-handed part of the catcher platoon. Not only would part-time duty help mitigate Avila's injury risk, it would likely help his production. Despite Avila's poor overall numbers over the past several seasons, his splits against RHP have been fine.
vs. RHP
2013: .255/.345/.422, 10 HRs in 291 PA's with a 12.4% BB-rate
2014: .215/.340/.380, 10 HRs in 341 PA's with a 15.8% BB-rate
2015: .203/.355/.311, 4 HRs in 183 PA's with a 19.1% BB-rate
So, despite his inability to hit for average, he's still drawing walks at a high rate. If you can muster a .330 OBP with 8-10 homers out of the long-side of your catcher platoon, you'd have to be happy with that.
Additionally, Avila has always received praise for his defensive abilities and "intangibles". His father is the GM of the Detroit Tigers and Avila has been pegged as a future manager by many of his teammates. For a team that apparently had leadership issues in 2015, adding Avila to the roster and to the clubhouse may prove valuable.
Adding Avila would also enable you to move Stephen Vogt to 1B, protecting him from injury and likely improving offensive production at the spot mainly occupied by Ike Davis in 2015. Or it could free up Vogt for a trade, if the right offer comes along. Frankly, I like the idea of Vogt at 1B with Avila at C against RHP.
I doubt he will be an all-star, but the asking price will likely max out at three years, with an AAV of $10M or so. I think a realistic contract for him would be 2/18 with an option, or 3/25 (again, as much as I've been talking him up... he still hit .191 last year).
The A's need LH bats, they need "leadership" and stuff, and they like players under the age of 32 or so. Avila's the perfect fit, and the A's should try to lock him up very early in the offseason.
Ben Zobrist
A's fans are familiar with Zobrist from his brief stint here in 2015. Zobrist is much older than a typical A's target, but the A's clearly value him highly and it isn't hard to see why. He's been one of the best players in baseball over the past decade. He will be 35 next season.
I know I made the point that the A's rarely play hitters in their mid-to-late 30s, but they did just that with Zobrist last year. His best skill is his plate discipline, which might be the offensive skill that ages best. His injury history is limited. If there is a player who is a good bet to remain great into his late-30s, it's Ben Zobrist.
There are similarities in the offensive games of Zobrist and the A's other old-player investment, Coco Crisp. The main one, again, is plate discipline. Last season, 41% of Zobrist's at-bats ended in a hitter's count. That's Joey Votto territory. That's also the exact same number Coco Crisp put up in 2013. Crisp and Zobrist are both switch-hitters with an elite eye at the plate. The big difference is that Zobrist can play the infield, and he doesn't have anything resembling the injury history of Coco Crisp.
Of course, EVERY team could use Zobrist, and the A's will obviously have a ton of competition for him. But there are a few things worth considering. One, every team that will bid on him this winter could have traded for him last winter, and it was the A's who made the biggest offer (parting with Daniel Robertson as the centerpiece). Two, the A's have reportedly made the biggest offer on several high-demand free agents in the past few years, most notably Adrian Beltre, and also Chase Headley last year.
I think the base rate for a 5-win player entering his age 35 season would look a bit like the deal Victor Martinez got last season, coming off of an insane year where he led the league in OPS and finished 2nd in the AL MVP voting. He received 4/68 for his age 36-39 seasons. I'm guessing 4/70 is the winning bid for Zobrist, but I'd be okay going crazy and offering a 5th year if that's what it takes. The A's stocked up on young players last winter, and still parted with one of their best in exchange for one year of Ben Zobrist. It's pretty obvious that they are as high on him as anyone else is. Count me in, because I'm just such a believer in his plate discipline. The guy just doesn't swing at bad pitches.
John Jaso
Another left-handed bat, Jaso is now a man without a position after concussions and general lack of defensive skill behind the plate ended his catching career. After going to the Rays in the Ben Zobrist deal, Jaso got injured on Opening Day and was limited to 216 PA's in 70 games. He was primarily a DH, save for a few fairly disastrous games in left field.
At the plate, though, he was still an OBP monster. He got on base at a .380 clip. His OBPs over the past four years:
.394
.387
.337 (in the legendary "got concussed because the A's took Barton over Vogt" year)
.380
The demand for him will likely be limited to AL teams, and his AAV will likely be under $10M. But he is entering his age 32 season, is a pure DH, and can't hit lefties. It's possible that a 2/14 value will be too good to pass up, however.
Also note that this is only feasible if the A's get rid of Billy Butler somehow, which I imagine is a near certainty.
Dexter Fowler and Colby Rasmus
Both are on display in the postseason, with Rasmus in particular having a great showing in the Astros' six postseason games. I would imagine that Rasums earned himself a few extra dollars with his October performance.
Both Fowler and Rasmus have primarily been centerfielders, but both are getting older (Rasmus will be 29 next year, Fowler 30). It's probably time for both of them to move to a corner.
Fowler is a switch-hitter who has always been better against LHP. His career walk rate is 12.4%, and his production hasn't slipped since leaving Coors Field prior to 2014. The problem, though, is that he's never shown a ton of power with a career ISO of .151 despite playing 70% of his career with the Rockies. Plus, at age 30, he will probably be entering a decline. Nick Markakis got 4/44 last year, and I think that's a minimum for Fowler. He's a switch-hitter and would probably be better than anything on our current roster in LF, but I think there are better options.
Rasmus has long been a favorite of Astros GM Jeff Lunhow, who drafted him while serving as the scouting director in St. Louis, and signed him in Houston. Plus, he put on a show for the Astros in October. I can certainly see him staying there. I don't see the A's ponying up the cash for him.
Brandon Moss
He isn't technically a free agent, since he still has one year of control with the Cardinals. However, his estimated arbitration price is about $8M and I cannot imagine the Cardinals will tender him a contract.
We all know his story, coming here before the 2012 season on a minor league contract, getting called up in June, and then tearing the cover off the ball for the next 25 months, culminating in an all-star appearance in 2014. Ever since then, however, he's regressed badly. Partly due to a hip injury, but mainly because Beane traded Cespedes.
With Cleveland and St. Louis last year, Moss hit .226/.304/.407 with 19 homers and 148 strikeouts in 526 PA's (wRC+ 94). He's a personal favorite of mine, and the A's definitely need left-handed bats. But at age 32, with a year and a half of mediocre performance, and an injury history, it's possible that he is done. The risk would likely be limited to a one-year commitment at $5-7M, so you can make the case for him. Emotion aside, however, I think there are better options.
Daric Barton
Can you imagine the fear a pitcher would feel facing a 3-4 in the lineup of Barton and Butler? Make it happen, Beane.
For real, though, my ideal shopping list is Avila (2/18 with an option) and Zobrist (whatever it takes). Am I missing an other reasonably attainable free agent hitters?
