Brandon Moss' perceived value around the league seems to be pretty low, due to concerns over his hip injury.
Now let's assume Beane shared those concerns.
(now maybe you agree, maybe you don't, but it's at least *plausible* the hip injury will have drastic long term effects)
A's roll with Moss going into 2015, coming off of a major surgery it's logical that he Moss would be at his worst over the first half of the season.
He spends April, May, June getting back his flexibility and strength, and trying to dial in his swing mechanics which will very likely be out of whack as he compensates for this or that as he's rehabbing.
Come July maybe he still hasn't gotten it dialed in, the problems linger, it ends up a lost season for Brandon Moss.
He now has near zero trade value, and is due ~$9 mil in arbitration.
Winter comes around and all of a sudden Moss is a potential non-tender candidate.
Beane can pay him ~$9 million or so and hope being a year removed from surgery will improve his chances of regaining his bat. The other option is non-tender, or give away for a bag of balls.
Recent examples of players undergoing hip labrum repair surgery:
Carlos Delgado: Required surgery, 9 months later required another surgery which included micro-fracture, career over, older that Moss at time of surgery.
Alex Gordon: Promising young star, 2.5fWAR in 2008, 0 combined fWAR the next 2 post-surgery seasons.
Chase Utley: Had arguably best season following surgery, while still boasting very good power numbers he experienced a steady decline in power from that season on.
Mike Lowell: Older than Moss, power stayed steady for one season post-surgery, career over not long after.
Alex Rodriguez: In decline ever since initial hip surgery, still hit well overall, but asterisks aplenty.
As you can see it's a bit of a mixed-bag but mostly negative.
Is there something about Moss that makes him more likely to struggle coming off of this particular injury?
To paraphrase Mr. Brewer's analysis (and I hope I'm doing it justice): Moss succeeds because his lower body function is good, and he is just flat out strong. Moss didn't hit dingers because he had a great swing designed to launch the ball, but rather because he was able to use his lower body to launch the ball over the fence.
With this in mind I think it is possible Moss suffers more than most when it comes to hip surgery.
This is the case against Brandon Moss. I'm not 100% sure I buy it, and I don't know if that's just because I don't want it to be true, or if I'm just an overly attached fan, or whatever other reason. I do believe it is worth considering.
