Not just lottery tickets: Athletics first baseman acquisitions since 2011

Since 2012, 12 players have started at first base for the Oakland Athletics: Brandon Moss, Chris Carter, Daric Barton, Kila Ka'aihue, Adam Rosales, Brandon Allen, Brandon Hicks, Nate Freiman, Shane Peterson, Stephen Vogt, Alberto Callaspo, and Kyle Blanks. None of these players were drafted by the Athletics.

Continuing my look back at the last few seasons of acquisitions, we'll find that the A's have essentially given all of their first base acquisitions a look.

• July 31, 2011: Brandon Allen traded by the Arizona Diamondbacks with Jordan Norberto to the Oakland Athletics for Brad Ziegler.
• September 27, 2011: Kila Ka'aihue traded by the Kansas City Royals to the Oakland Athletics for Ethan Hollingsworth.
• November 19, 2011: Brandon Moss signed to a minor league deal and invited to spring training.
• April 19, 2012: Brandon Allen selected off waivers by the Tampa Bay Rays. Was designated for assignment to make room for Daric Barton on the 25-man roster.
• June 7, 2012: Kila Ka'aihue designated for assignment. Brandon Moss recalled from Triple-A Sacramento.
• July 12, 2012: Matt Rizzotti signed to a minor league deal.
• March 23, 2013: Nate Freiman, Rule 5 draft selection, claimed off waivers from the Houston Astros.
• April 6, 2013: Stephen Vogt traded by the Tampa Bay Rays to the Oakland Athletics for cash.
• July 30, 2013: Alberto Callaspo traded by the Los Angeles Angels for Grant Green.
• May 15, 2014: Kyle Blanks traded by the San Diego Padres to the Oakland Athletics for Jake Goebbert and Ronald Herrera.

A refresher on the concept

The A's have not necessarily drafted the best player in the past, because the best player might not sign for what the A's are willing to spend. This will be diminished somewhat with the bonus money caps in place for the amateur draft in the current incarnation of Baseball's labor agreement, but it merited a mention in Michael Lewis' Moneyball, where in the 2002 draft Jeremy Guthrie was the top pitcher on Billy Beane's "if money was no object" draft board, represented by agent Scott Boras:

If the team didn't pay whatever Boras asked, Boras would encourage his client to take a year off of baseball and reenter the draft the following year, when he might be selected by a team with real money. The effects of Boras's tactics on rich teams were astonishing. . . . By finding the highest bidders for his players before the draft and scaring everyone else away from them, Boras was transforming the draft into a pure auction.

Billy couldn't afford auctions. He had $9.5 million to spend and Boras had let it be known that whichever team drafted Jeremy Guthrie was going to cough up a package worth $20 million--or Guthrie would return to Stanford for his senior year. The Cleveland Indians had agreed to pay the price, and so the Indians would take Guthrie with the twenty-second pick.

So I have taken to looking back at the last three years of player acquisitions to see how many trades it takes to find the diamonds in the rough that Billy Beane and his staff have turned up, making up for the signing bonuses the A's could not previously pay. At first base, we will find it did not take very many.

Baseball Prospectus has, behind its paywall, a way to split the advanced statistics on its website into batter handedness and into major or minor league level and rank the players according to whatever chosen statistics. Baseball Prospectus has a statistic similar to wOBA, called "True Average" or "TAv," which is scaled to batting average rather than on base percentage. Mark L. Smith of Talking Chop explains:

It is Baseball Prospectus' offensive metric. Like wOBA, TAv is a scaled metric, but instead of scaling it to look like OBP, it is scaled to look like BA. There are, however, some key differences:

• It doesn't need a "+" metric because it's already scaled to league, park, and era. A .270 TAv in 2013 is the same as a .270 TAv in 1999. .260 is good, .300 very good, and anything above .330 is elite.
• It's also a bit like SIERA in that it's a bit more complicated than its FanGraphs counterpart. All outs and bunts aren't equal, and strikeouts, for example, is a slightly more damaging out than a normal out. I believe it also accounts for double plays hit into.

Which is better? Again, TAv is likely better. It takes more into account - strikeouts and hitting into double plays are more damaging than other outs. But yet again, the difference between it and wOBA probably isn't great[.]

("Braving New Territory: wOBAddy, How Does It wRC?" Nov. 23, 2013)

Baseball Prospectus considers a .230 TAv to approximately represent replacement level.

What I have done is taken each non-pitcher the Athletics signed or traded for since July 2011 and will give you their TAv broken down into year, handedness, and classification (MLB, Triple-A, etc.), providing only those lines where a player acquired at least 100 plate appearances. I will also provide where that TAv ranks among those with at least 75 plate appearances against left-handed pitching, and 150 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, or where their TAv would have ranked if they qualified, and compare it against that season's .260 TAv.

Brandon Allen

Nico had this to say about whether Brandon Allen will save the franchise at the 2011 trade deadline, "He won't, but he might be quite good."

LHB Brandon Allen	Age	Class	TAv v. LHP	PA	Rank (min. 75 PA)	.260 Rank (min. 75 PA)	%	TAv v. RHP	PA	Rank (min. 150 PA)	.260 Rank (min. 150 PA)	%
2010	24	AAA	.327	90	19	67	28%	.301	207	37	115	32%
2009	23	AAA	.329	57	32	153	21%	.285	169	107	181	59%
2009	23	AA	.308	82	61	158	39%	.308	190	49	170	29%
2008	22	AA	.271	64	121	141	86%	.312	120	34	188	18%
2008	22	A+	.314	99	40	144	28%	.302	263	43	192	22%
2007	21	A	.238	151	194	155	125%	.287	409	88	185	48%
2006	20	A	.228	134	186	140	133%	.216	286	277	161	172%

Allen showed an ability to hit against both sides of the plate at the minor league level, a quality highly desirable for a first baseman. Unfortunately, it did not continue in the brief time he was up in the big leagues in 2011 before being waived and sent to the Tampa Bay Rays in April of 2012:

LHB Brandon Allen	Age	Class	TAv v. LHP	PA	Rank (min. 75 PA)	.260 Rank (min. 75 PA)	%	TAv v. RHP	PA	Rank (min. 150 PA)	.260 Rank (min. 150 PA)	%
2014	28	AAA	.330	82	27	156	17%	.256	293	212	205	103%
2013	27	AAA	.189	86	256	141	182%	.299	398	53	188	28%
2012	26	AAA	.281	38	115	186	62%	.248	91	232	180	129%
2011	25	MLB	.155	56	283	159	178%	.281	139	102	190	54%
2011	25	AAA	.282	118	94	155	61%	.300	301	53	196	27%

Allen has continued to toil away in Triple-A, but the consistency he previously enjoyed on both sides of the plate has disappeared. He was strangely so-so against right-handed Triple-A pitching in 2014, yet impressive against left-handed pitching. Allen has not been on a 40-man roster since running out of options in 2012.

Kila Ka'aihue

The A's picked up Kila Ka'aihue at the end of 2011, and a few weeks into the 2012 season, Alex Hall had these notes on what we received:

Kila's minor league track record was inconsistent, and politely suggested "4-A slugger." He has essentially dominated at every level of the minors, but only when he was a little bit too old for each level. He killed High-A-ball pitching at 21, AA at 24, and AAA at 25+. According to that trend, he should be able to just destroy Major League pitching when he's 35. After getting jerked around by GM Dayton Moore (not like that, perv), blocked by Mike Jacobs (inexcusable), and then passed by Eric Hosmer (totally understandable), he was mercifully released and washed up on Oakland's Island of Misfit Toys.

LHB Kila Ka'aihue	Age	Class	TAv v. LHP	PA	Rank (min. 75 PA)	.260 Rank (min. 75 PA)	%	TAv v. RHP	PA	Rank (min. 150 PA)	.260 Rank (min. 150 PA)	%
2011	27	MLB	.231	26	229	159	144%	.227	70	297	190	156%
2011	27	AAA	.332	106	16	155	10%	.263	282	183	196	93%
2010	26	MLB	.258	47	174	171	102%	.227	159	304	188	162%
2010	26	AAA	.354	103	2	67	3%	.379	170	1	115	1%
2009	25	AAA	.283	171	104	153	68%	.330	379	16	181	9%
2008	24	AAA	.379	43	3	147	2%	.335	94	12	190	6%
2008	24	AA	.267	53	132	141	94%	.404	319	1	188	1%
2007	23	AA	.223	61	230	159	145%	.296	192	60	188	32%
2007	23	A+	.221	63	203	138	147%	.305	186	43	196	22%
2006	22	AA	.232	62	197	153	129%	.222	294	270	175	154%

Look at some of those rankings. In 2010 he was the best hitter in Triple-A, but replacement-level in MLB. In 2011, his game against right-handed pitching disappeared.

Daric Barton was actually the A's primary first baseman after Brandon Allen got shipped out, and then when Barton was optioned to Sacramento, Ka'aihue was the primary first baseman for four days before getting designated for assignment to make way for Brandon Moss.

LHB Kila Ka'aihue	Age	Class	TAv v. LHP	PA	Rank (min. 75 PA)	.260 Rank (min. 75 PA)	%	TAv v. RHP	PA	Rank (min. 150 PA)	.260 Rank (min. 150 PA)	%
2013	29	AAA	.213	72	234	141	166%	.396	158	1	188	1%
2012	28	MLB	.288	39	95	165	58%	.233	100	271	184	147%
2012	28	AAA	.338	79	19	186	10%	.285	226	93	180	52%

Ka'aihue moved on to play baseball in Japan. He finished his second season with the Hiroshima Carp this year.

Brandon Moss

By the numbers alone, Brandon Moss was just minor league filler when he was signed after the 2011 season, with Kila Ka'aihue, Daric Barton, and Brandon Allen expected to compete for the first base job. Someone that never turned it on in his chance at the Big League level, yet showed inconsistent flashes of power, especially against righties, in Triple-A.

LHB Brandon Moss	Age	Class	TAv v. LHP	PA	Rank (min. 75 PA)	.260 Rank (min. 75 PA)	%	TAv v. RHP	PA	Rank (min. 150 PA)	.260 Rank (min. 150 PA)	%
2011	27	AAA	.314	138	31	155	20%	.307	317	34	196	17%
2010	26	AAA	.221	96	110	67	164%	.282	244	69	115	60%
2009	25	MLB	.223	62	242	168	144%	.235	362	279	190	147%
2008	24	MLB	.274	71	140	186	75%	.244	192	236	181	130%
2008	24	AAA	.250	44	177	147	120%	.327	137	14	190	7%
2007	23	AAA	.283	184	88	143	62%	.290	372	80	196	41%
2006	22	AA	.300	197	82	153	54%	.292	413	73	175	42%

Then a funny thing happened, from Albert Chen's May 30, 2014 profile on Brandon Moss in Sports Illustrated ("In Oakland, Brandon Moss emerges as unlikely star for Athletics"):

Moss found out that it was assistant general manager Farhan Zaidi who was his impassioned advocate in the Oakland front office, pushing for the A's to give Moss a shot. "For someone to stick out his neck for a 28-year-old who had done nothing with 600 at-bats in the majors, that's bold," Moss said. What Zaidi had seen were Moss' numbers at Triple-A Sacramento. "The difference in flyball rates, walk rates, isolated power, there was an obvious change," Moss said. "Those numbers changed because there was an obvious change in approach over a two-year period. It's something I did work on. I felt that what gave me the best chance to succeed was to hit the ball in the air."

The rest is history.

LHB Brandon Moss	Age	Class	TAv v. LHP	PA	Rank (min. 75 PA)	.260 Rank (min. 75 PA)	%	TAv v. RHP	PA	Rank (min. 150 PA)	.260 Rank (min. 150 PA)	%
2014	30	MLB	.297	101	88	170	52%	.286	479	87	183	48%
2013	29	MLB	.244	88	215	175	123%	.345	417	9	190	5%
2012	28	MLB	.280	62	113	165	68%	.349	234	6	184	3%
2012	28	AAA	.269	84	146	186	78%	.353	140	5	180	3%

Matt Rizzotti

Matt Rizzotti is the only one in this group that did not get to the Major League team, and he retired from baseball after spending 2012 in Midland, his third season in Double-A. Rizzotti's previous Double-A numbers suggest he should have been at Triple-A at some point in his career. So what happened?

Rizzotti was drafted by the Philadelphia Phillies organization in 2007, the penultimate year of Pat Gillick's tenure as general manager before handing the team off to Ruben Amaro Jr. Amaro, in turn, basically gave Rizzotti no clear path to the major leagues as soon as he gave fellow left-handed first baseman Ryan Howard his monstrous extension that will take Howard through 2016 or 2017. Besides Howard, Jeff Larish and Cody Overbeck were ahead of Rizzotti in Triple-A at the end of 2011.

LHB Matt Rizzotti	Age	Class	TAv v. LHP	PA	Rank (min. 75 PA)	.260 Rank (min. 75 PA)	%	TAv v. RHP	PA	Rank (min. 150 PA)	.260 Rank (min. 150 PA)	%
2011	25	AA	.381	168	3	148	2%	.314	419	29	195	15%
2010	24	AA	.356	41	7	112	6%	.360	174	1	133	1%
2010	24	A+	.281	42	71	106	67%	.356	53	5	155	3%
2009	23	A+	.180	36	264	143	185%	.296	364	65	186	35%
2008	22	A	.308	93	47	142	33%	.306	339	37	185	20%
2007	21	A-	.271	68	18	23	78%	.303	181	33	93	35%

Matt Rizzotti was granted his release from the Phillies, and signed a minor league deal with the Minnesota Twins at the end of 2012 spring training. He got as high as Triple-A before he was released, and then signed with the A's on a minor league deal.

LHB Matt Rizzotti	Age	Class	TAv v. LHP	PA	Rank (min. 75 PA)	.260 Rank (min. 75 PA)	%	TAv v. RHP	PA	Rank (min. 150 PA)	.260 Rank (min. 150 PA)	%
2012	26	AA	.175	63	239	136	176%	.319	223	23	177	13%

Rizzotti may have been a year or two too old for Double-A, but the A's might have given him more time in 2013 if he wanted. Of course, by that point, the A's had already found their left-handed batting first baseman in Brandon Moss, and were developing another in Stephen Vogt.

Rather than find another club, however, Rizzotti returned to his old high school, Archbishop Molloy in Queens, New York, as assistant coach after the legendary baseball and basketball coach Jack Curran passed away.

Nate Freiman

Six-eight Nate was a double castoff. Not good enough for the San Diego Padres to protect him from the Rule 5 draft after making the Texas League All-Star Team, and not good enough for the Houston Astros to retain on their major league roster in a year where they played Chris Carter, Brett Wallace, and Carlos Pena at first base.

RHB Nate Freiman	Age	Class	TAv v. LHP	PA	Rank (min. 75 PA)	.260 Rank (min. 75 PA)	%	TAv v. RHP	PA	Rank (min. 150 PA)	.260 Rank (min. 150 PA)	%
2012	25	AA	.387	129	3	136	2%	.299	452	52	177	29%
2011	24	A+	.361	141	10	142	7%	.272	477	133	174	76%
2010	23	A	.293	86	30	52	58%	.277	261	89	132	67%
2009	22	A-	.231	72	36	28	129%	.336	249	8	83	10%

Nate Freiman was always going to be, in 2013, used only against left-handed pitching, but you can see that given time he could still be acceptable against right-handed pitching.

RHB Nate Freiman	Age	Class	TAv v. LHP	PA	Rank (min. 75 PA)	.260 Rank (min. 75 PA)	%	TAv v. RHP	PA	Rank (min. 150 PA)	.260 Rank (min. 150 PA)	%
2014	27	AAA	.269	100	132	170	78%	.329	264	12	183	7%
2013	26	MLB	.293	162	83	175	47%	.150	46	344	190	181%

And in Triple-A, Freiman was remarkably good against right-handed pitching. Can that be sustained? Where do the A's want him to figure that out? Freiman has two option years left, which means he'll likely be in Nashville to give it another go.

Kyle Blanks

The Daric Barton Experience finally ended on May 15, 2014 when the A's shipped Daric Barton to Sacramento to become a legendary River Cat and acquired Kyle Blanks from the San Diego Padres. In Blanks, they picked up a big right-handed batting first baseman and corner outfielder that had demonstrated an ability to hit against both hands of pitching at every minor league level, but had trouble adjusting to Major League righties.

RHB Kyle Blanks	Age	Class	TAv v. LHP	PA	Rank (min. 75 PA)	.260 Rank (min. 75 PA)	%	TAv v. RHP	PA	Rank (min. 150 PA)	.260 Rank (min. 150 PA)	%
2013	26	MLB	.294	118	81	175	46%	.232	190	280	190	147%
2011	24	AAA	.425	39	1	155	1%	.338	113	9	196	5%
2011	24	AA	.336	74	22	148	15%	.246	127	250	195	128%
2010	23	MLB	.354	31	14	171	8%	.208	89	328	188	174%
2009	22	MLB	.237	46	215	168	128%	.330	126	16	190	8%
2009	22	AAA	.392	66	4	153	3%	.335	209	13	181	7%
2008	21	AA	.242	111	184	141	130%	.354	448	8	188	4%
2007	20	A+	.307	131	52	138	38%	.309	430	35	196	18%
2006	19	A	.282	92	104	140	74%	.273	254	116	161	72%

Blanks, however, has been plagued by the injury bug. After impressing for several weeks with the Athletics, Blanks experienced a calf tear. He was looking good in a rehabilitation assignment before experiencing a further injury that shut down his year for good. Blanks is still under arbitration, and he's out of options, which means spring training is a make-it-or-break-it time for him.

Conclusion

As for left-handed batting first basemen, the A's floundered a bit with Brandon Allen and Kila Ka'aihue after realizing Daric Barton was not going to return to his 2010 form. Brandon Moss and to a lesser extent Stephen Vogt filled in that hole and will do so for awhile longer. Vogt's primary position is catcher, of course, and Moss plays corner outfield as well, and they could make way to allow John Jaso to play first base if he decides the dangers of concussions as the backstop is too great. Once they're gone, the next great hope is home grown Matt Olson, fresh off his 37 home run campaign in the California League.

For right-handed batting first basemen, the jury is still out. Can Kyle Blanks stay healthy? Will Nate Freiman turn his minor league success on both sides of the plate into Major League success if called upon?