baseballgirl update: We should probably change the title of this to "What is the Real Impact of Losing your 4th and 5th starter for a while"? Brandon McCarthy AND Tyson Ross are headed to the DL.
From Jane Lee:
Lots of #Athletics moves: Ross, McCarthy to DL; Devine, Blevins and De Los Santos recalled; Magnuson optioned
First off, my apologies that this will be more of a "conversation starter" than its own analysis -- the last three weeks of school are loco. But with the specter looming that Tyson Ross could be out for a while, how many losses should the A's expect to incur because they have to downgrade, for a period of time, from a 5th starter who was pitching great to one who is bound to be in the rotation out of need, not because the A's think he should be making big league starts right now.
WAR analysis of the drop from a good player to a bad one for a while is often surprising -- that the impact is closer to a loss than to a "ZOMG!!!!" amount of losses. Perhaps someone who believes that "WAR is the answer" can provide a stat-based analysis of what the impact is thought to be if Ross is out for 3 weeks, or 6 weeks, or 2 months, replaced by Josh Outman, Guillermo Moscoso, or equivalent "ruh roh riff raff".
Are "we all gonna die!!!!!" over this, or are we just going to have a rather bad runny nose and some cramps? It's not good, for sure, but how bad is it, as the A's try to win half their games better than the Rangers and Angels do?
EDIT, 1:00pm PDT: I have had an epiphany and wish to share it. It is thusly and as follows...Call up Moscoso but put him in long relief, move Purcey to the rotation. Purcey goes 4 IP, against what will undoubtedly be a righty-heavy lineup. Then Ziegler (who you would really try not to use the day before), comes in for the next 2-3 IP, pitching too early in the game for the opposing manager to want to pinch-hit. After 6-7 IP you hope to be able to turn it over to your best relievers to close it out. I like it!!!!!! Do you?
