2008 A's Roster Dead Pool

So you think you know what Billy Beane’s up to?

Well, take another look.

Here’s the A’s current 40-man roster.

Dollars to donuts that doesn’t remain static from now until April 2008.

Which means that not only is Beane likely to bring in some new talent (whether on the cheap or through the nose ... or merely off the 60-day DL) – he’s also got to jettison some players.

Lay your guesses, ladies and gents, for the 2008 A’s Roster Dead Pool. Who do you think are the five players currently on the 40-man roster who most likely will not be on it as of Opening Day 2008? (Not, I might add, who you’d like to see cast adrift on an ice floe < cough > Kotsay <cough>.) We’ll check back in with our guesses in the spring.

[Full roster list and my guesses after the jump.]

And the A's take on the Rangers again tonight at 5:05 PT.

Note that players on the 60-day DL are not on the current 40-man roster: Buck, Chavez, Duke, Harden, Denorfia, and Snelling. It’s going to be a busy spring.

Current 40-Man Roster

Pitchers

1. Joe Blanton

2. Dallas Braden

3. Andrew Brown

4. Kiko Calero

5. Santiago Casilla

6. Lenny DiNardo

7. Alan Embree

8. Ron Flores

9. Chad Gaudin

10. Brad Halsey

11. Dan Haren

12. Shane Komine

13. Colby Lewis

14. Ruddy Lugo

15. Jay Marshall

16. Dan Meyer

17. Connor Robertson

18. Huston Street

19. Jason Windsor

Catchers

20. Rob Bowen

21. Adam Melhuse

22. Kurt Suzuki

Infielders

23. Bobby Crosby

24. Mark Ellis

25. J.J. Furmaniak

26. Jack Hannahan

27. Dan Johnson

28. Kevin Melillo

29. Donnie Murphy

30. Marco Scutaro

Outfielders

31. Dee Brown

32. Jeff DaVanon

33. Javier Herrera

34. Mark Kotsay

35. Danny Putnam

36. Shannon Stewart

37. Nick Swisher

38. Kevin Thompson

Designated Hitters

39. Jack Cust

40. Mike Piazza

My guess for the five most likely to be off the 40-man by Opening Day?

• Lewis (will pitch his way off the roster in ST)
• Marshall (with a decent stable of lefties in the ’pen and Marshall’s Rule Fiveitude having been served, he’ll be in AA or AAA for seasoning but not on the 40-man)
• Melhuse (c’mon; this one’s a gimme)
• Halsey (combination of injury, attitude, and unmarketability will have him let go [or moved to the 60-day DL] relatively early in ST)
• Dee Brown (probably the lowest ceiling of any of our hydra of OF options)

Yeah, that’s right: I have a bad feeling that:

• Piazza may have underhit his way to continued affordability in ’08
• Beane will overvalue both Stewart and Scutaro and will sign each of them to a near-fair-market-value contract
• Ellis, while a possible and attractive trade candidate, will have his option exercised and perhaps even be extended

(My habitually tragicomic approach leads me to guess that Beane is going to pull a modified Sabean in ’08: opting for predictable, familiar, moderately priced veterans mixed in with a smattering of not highly promising youngsters. He’ll neither rebuild nor spend deeply on reinforcements.)

Give us your guesses for the 5 most likely in comments, please.