Top 5 2005 AL Rotations, by SNLVAR
Team VORP SNLVA SNLVAR
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 195.6 10.4 25.9
Oakland Athletics 185.7 9.9 25.4
Chicago White Sox 209.2 9.2 24.4
Minnesota Twins 177.2 6.1 21.5
Cleveland Indians 150.0 5.7 20.9
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With the updated PECOTA stats, I decided to look at our WARP for our rotation and lineup:
Oakland
WARP/Name
5.0 Zito
5.2 Haren
4.8 Haren
3.9 Blanton
4.7 Loaiza
Total = 23.6
Anahiem
WARP/Name
5.2 Colon
5.6 Lackey
3.7 Escobar
3.6 Santana
2.1 Carrasco
Total = 20.2
The Angels front end is projected to be better, but the advantage the A's obviously have is the ability to throw out a quality starter every day of the week, while the Angels have 2 Great Starters, 2 Average and 1 Crap, and the A's have 4 Good Starters and 1 Average.
Oakland
WARP/Name
3.7 C1 Kendall
3.4 1B Johnson
4.8 2B Ellis
5.8 3B Chavez
5.3 SS Crosby
3.2 LF Swisher
4.2 CF Kotsay
4.1 RF Bradley
1.2 DH Thomas
Total = 35.7
Anahiem
WARP/Name
2.6 C1 Mathis
1.9 1B Kotchman
3.2 2B Kennedy
4.2 3B Figgins
3.5 SS Cabrera
2.4 LF Anderson
1.9 CF Erstad
5.8 RF Guerrero
3.9 DH McPherson
Total = 29.4
This might be flawed from Angel fans standpoint by PECOTA hating Kotchman, but the overall picture is clear. The A's have a much supperior lineup to the Angels.
Oakland
WARP/Name
0.6 Melhuse
2.1 Payton
2.1 Kielty
2.0 Perez
2.8 Scutaro
Total = 9.6
Anahiem
WARP/Name
1.4 Molina
1.8 Rivera
2.5 Izturis
1.2 Quinlan
1.3 Alfonzo
Total = 8.2
Oakland
WARP/Name
4.0 Street
2.5 Duchscherer
1.7 Calero
1.7 Witasick
2.4 Saarloos
2.9 Kennedy
Total = 15.2
Anahiem
WARP/Name
6.6 Rodriguez
2.8 Sheilds
1.6 Donnelly
0.8 Romero
2.0 Gregg
1.0 Yan
Total = 14.8
Grand Total
Oakland = 84.1
Anahiem = 72.6
This is no substitute for a Full Season Simulation, nor is it a total for actual wins. After all, we don't know how many wins a Replacement Player would net, and the many of the backup players are simulated with more playing time then they will get. But take it for what its worth, thats what PECOTA says.