I haven't contributed as much as I've liked but the worst is over as far as exams go and I wanted to have a look on Jesse Carlson who has sparked my curiosity as a fan and I know next to nothing about the guy.

In fact, if you have any interesting tidbits on Carlson, I think they would be most welcomed as there is next to nothing on this guy.

Jesse Carlson was born on December 31st, 1980 out of New Britain, Connectcut. The birthplace of major league pitchers such as Ricky Bottalico and Carl Pavano. At the age of 19, his daughter passed at a mere 18 days. I feel terrible for sharing this but... I guess the more we know about the guy the more we'll like him.

Carlson, started his career out of the Detroit Tigers organization after being drafted in the 15th round (440th overall) in the 2002 draft. At UConn he was a starting pitcher posting a ERA of 4.50. He had a fair 8.25 K/9 rate but he definitely wasn't dominating. He does have the right left handedness (intended bad joke) and was probably drafted as an organizational arm.

His stint with the Tigers organization did not last long and looks quite suspicious to me actually. Carlson posted a solid season in short-season A ball with an ERA of 1.66 in 38 IP with 47 Ks and just 10 free passes. Very solid numbers for a reliever and being a lefty, definitely would require a move up.

So what happened? I did a little searching because you just don't release a 22-year old left handed pitcher who posts a 1.66 ERA in A ball. I did some digging up and he was released as being part of a joke gone bad . He really wasn't the perpetrator but he was guilty by association and it ultimately lost him his job. Carlson and two other teammates were performing a rap song when, Luke Carlin rapped about sleeping with major league vet Randy Ready's wife. Apparently Ready found it funny but the Tigers organization dubbed it sexual harassment (it does cross the line imho) and all three players were released. That saying, the release and potentially a guy's career isn't worth something that was meant to be funny and when a player is indirectly involved.

Carlson moved on quickly to the Astros organization where he pitched in A-ball moving up a level and improving on his work. He has a 12 K/9 with a 0.84 WHIP. Extremely impressively. Carlson according to Jim Callis of Baseball America has a sharp slider but that was back in 2003-2004 and I think he piqued the interest of a few Astro fans.

The Astros were aggressive with Carlson skipping the High-A level to AA. He didn't fare too well as hitters were catching up to him as he was rather mediocre. An ERA of 5 isn't that bad for a 23-year old but Houston didn't think so and was released. The Jays picked him up for a season where he fared well in his second stint in AA posting a 1.83 ERA in 39 IP. He was average again in a short stint at AAA. He would leave as a 6-year free agent from Toronto after th '05 season to hook up with Texas which produced further mediocre/unspectacular but not terrible numbers. He returned last season where he pitched in AA to a 4.86 ERA.

Carlson at 27 made his major league debut, you could use that journeyman tag on him as he's been with 4 organizations already. In his short stint he's pitched a 2 innings with 2Ks. He may just end up being a loogy with a repertoire that includes a slurve and a slider. He may even pull off a surprising season like Wolfe (if anyone saw his success before his major league debt had to be psychic especially with him posting era's in the 8s). Either way, I'm definitely rooting for him to be successful and after reading about some of the hurdles in his career that he has to go through, I wish him the best not just because he's currently a Jay.

I've been busy with exams but one thing that needs to be done every year is your own predictions for the year. With opening day starting tomorrow (for us anyway), what are your predictions for the 2008 year. I promise to revisit them at the end of the year to see who's got the midas touch.

AL

Rookie of the Year: Clay Buchholz (no hitter hype probably carries over)

MVP: Miguel Cabrera (he's not on Florida anymore and he's the best player in best player in baseball)

Cy Young: CC Sabathia

AL East (this has done by our writers already): 1. Boston Red Sox 2. Toronto Blue Jays 3. New York Yankees 4. Tampa Bay Devil Rays 5. Baltimore Orioles

I think they Toronto Blue Jays improve by 3 games with the Yankees a game or two back. I don't see the Yankees having that come back after early struggles with Girardi. Boston doesn't need an explanation (it's not fair!).

Al Central: 1. Detroit Tigers 2. Cleveland Indians 3. Kansas City Royals 4. Chicago White Sox 5. Minnesota Twins

Any other year, having Kansas City would be a stretch but I think they'll be a pleasant surprise. As for Detroit and Cleveland they are interchangeable to me.

AL West: 1. LAA Angels 2. Seattle Mariners 3. Oakland A's 4. Texas Rangers

I wanted to choose the Mariners (go Bedard) but once Lackey returns the Angels should be fine.

Wildcard : Cleveland Indians

Pennant: Detroit

NL

Rookie of the year: Kosuke Fokudome (is that fair?)

CY Young: Mark Teixeira

MVP: Ryan Howard

NL East: 1. New York Mets 2. Atlanta Braves 3. Philadelphia Phillies 4. Florida Marlins 5. Washington Nationals

It was sad last year to see the Mets fall apart. They've made considerable moves at least to make sure that doesn't happen (see Santana). The Braves I expect to be solid but they did those Andruw Jones and their rotation has a mix of young and old. I expect the Phillies to struggle with their pitching but all three teams should make it interesting down the stretch.

NL Central: 1. Chicago Cubs 2. Cincinnati Reds 3. Milwaukee Brew Crew 4. St. Louis Cardinals 5. Houston Astros 6. Pittsburgh Pirates

Talk about flipping a coin. Other then Pittsburgh, anyone can be #1-5.

NL West: 1. Arizona Diamondbacks 2. Colorado Rockies 3. Los Angeles Dodgers 4. San Diego Padres 5. San Francisco Giants

This will be a fun division to watch as any team is both capable and worthy of winning this division. It's sad that 2 out of these 4 teams can't make the playoffs.

Wildcard : Colorado Rockies

Pennant: New York Mets

World Series champion: Detroit Tigers

What are your picks?

I haven't posted in ages but I'm able to squeeze some time to talk about an important retirement. Shawn Green #23 on on our Top 40 All-Time Greatest Blue Jays List has called it quits at seemingly young age 35 according to the New York Post

I don't really know how to feel about Shawn Green. When he was a Jay I was a huge supporter. There was something in my memories of skinny dude that can whack the ball like it's no tomorrow (Adam Lind kind of reminds me of him) and he added at least 20 steals. The moments I remember were 1998 where he became a 30-30 guy and topping that the following season with 42 jacks and earning himself an all-star  appearance. In the end he spent only 5 seasons with us and I would've wished it to be 10 or 15 seasons as a Blue Jay because he was one of my favorite Jays at the time. Everyone probably heard about the trade involving him and Raul Mondesi which will always be a tough pill to swallow. He was pretty good for the Dodgers later making rounds with Arizona and the Mets. He earned himself a gaudy $100 million over his career. He ended up with a fine career line of 283/.355/.494 and 328 home runs. Not bad at all.

I didn't really know what was going on around contract negotiations or why Shawn Green was traded at the time but I always remembered the trade and how it was discussed a ton. I always looked up his statistics randomly at times during the season just to see how Shawn was doing. In a cruel way I wished for him to struggle to make the Jays look good for trading him and how him wanting out.

I guess I can forgive Shawn Green now that he has officially called it quits (still feeling a little bit bitter). Leaving the Jays at such a young age and being such a great player to watch, it was a bitter pill to swallow to see him having success with the Dodgers. 35 years old seems like an early retirement age these days and I'm sure he could've put in a few seasons as a platoon or pinch hitter but alas he has decided to call it quits and we at Bluebird Banter wish him the best.

We haven't had much news in the off-season so far but the Jays made a move today trading for utility man Marc Scutaro for 2 of our prospects.

I am not surprised at who this trade partner is as it's again the Oakland A's which is Riccardi's old boss.

Scutaro is a light hitting SS that many compared to John McDonald. Scutaro does have some power, hitting 7 home runs last season but bats a career average of .259. Scutaro is arbitration eligible and will make somewhere around $2 million. He has a good chance of starting as he is a slight upgrade with the bat at SS. He can give whoever days off as well. They also make a very good platoon option with McDonald hitting well against lefties in 49 games with an .818 OPS and a .329 BA. Over his career (.257/.306.645) he is considerably better against southpaws.

The prospects we gave up, never featured in my top 20 prospects. Kristian Bell and Graham Godfrey are two 23-year pitchers in A ball.

Kristian Bell is the type of arm that seems expendable. Bell has really struggled with his control and seems a bit too hittable with a career WHIP of 1.43 in A ball.

Godfrey had a 3.98 ERA for Lansing and didn't light anything on fire in his professional debut. Solid numbers but had a high hit rate and K rate that wasn't anything special.

Overall another decent move by Riccardi I would say. Scutaro is a very cheap option (was hoping for a Crosby trade) and is at least slightly better then McDonald with the stick. The players we gave up were expendable as all had considerable questions about them and were all the way down in A-ball. The likelihood they make to the show is slim. For Oakland this is clearly a salary dump and utility players aren't hard to come by when it comes to minor leaguers anyway.

From the great site, Cot's Baseball Contracts we should analyze the Jays finances. The Blue Jays have a unique system with their revenue based on the Canadian dollar and the exchange rate has played a huge factor in their financial situation in the past.

The Blue Jays should be flush with more finances despite an increasing payroll. Let's take a look so far with the contracts we have in 2008:

CF - Vernon Wells $0.5M + $8.5 M
RF - Alexis Rios ?? (Arbitration)
LF - Matt Stairs $2.25 M/Reed Johnson (??)/ Adam Lind (~300K)
3B - Troy Glaus $12.75 M
SS - John McDonald $1.9 M
2B - Aaron Hill (??)
1B - Lyle Overbay $5.8 M
DH - Frank Thomas $8 M
C - Gregg Zaun $3.75 M
Bench:
Curtis Thigpen (~300k)
Russ Adams (~400k)
?? - likely to be filled
SP1 - Roy Halladay $10 M
SP2 - AJ Burnett $12 M
SP3 - Dustin McGowan (~300k)
SP4 - Shaun Marcum (~400k)
SP5 - Jesse Litsch (~300k)/ Gustavo Chacin (~400k)
CL - BJ Ryan $10 M
RP - Casey Janssen (~400k)
RP - Scott Downs (??)
RP - Jeremy Accardo (~400k)
RP - Jason Frasor (??)
RP - Brian Tallet (~400k)

There is a lot of guesswork involved when trying to predict the salaries of players under the team's control.

A few big cases for arbitration:
Reed Johnson - IF it is offered I think they will match it at $3.075 M

Alex Rios - I think he can get $4-5 M depending on who they can use as comps. Hint to Jays management: get this guy signed long term. I'll say $4 M here.

Scott Downs - I'm thinking between $2-3 M to keep his services. Considering the market, Downs could fetch 3 years/$15 million for his services once he hits free agency in 2009. I'll say 2.5 M.

Frasor - Arbitration eligible, I think he fits in the $1-1.5 M range. I'll say $1.25 M

Aaron Hill - Not sure but if he ends up being considered a Super 2 he may get around 800K.

Approximate Total:
With Sparky: $90.7 M
Without Sparky: $87.6 M
Last Year's Salary: $81.9 M
Last Year's Exchange Rate: 86 cents Canadian/US Dollar
Last Year's Salary in Canadian: $95.2 M
Current Salary in Canadian:
With Sparky: $87.2 Million
W/O Sparky: $84.2 Million

Depending on whether we choose to retain our lead off man. We CAN make one significant signing this off-season or do what we did last year and bring guys in as role players.

What would you do with the extra money?
There are plenty of things the Jays management can do. They can sign a catcher to have a platoon, Alexei Ramirez looks like an interesting player at SS, or how about trading AJ Burnett for Tejada and signing another pitcher?

All speculation but it's fun to do. Hopefully the Jays don't go quietly...

Since the off-season is important in dictating the future of some prospects, I figure we put up this list now and make edits as the Jays make some more moves.

New eligibles (not on 40 man roster):
David Purcey*
Kyle Yates*
Ryan Klosterman
Cory Patton
Chip Cannon
Danny Hill
Mike MacDonald
Aaron Mathews
Daryl Harang
Paul Franko
Aaron Tressler
Adrian Martin

Others that may not be on the 40-man roster:
Lee Gronkiewicz (seems like a decent pick up)
Jamie Vermilyea
Ty Taubenheim
Sergio Santos
John-Ford Griffin

Likely 40-man roster removals:
Joe Inglett
Ryan Houston
Tracy Thorpe

Anyone I'm missing? Anyway a few important prospects may be left exposed in Aaron Mathews, Adrian Martin and Mike MacDonald. Let's hope we protect Gronk.

I probably would be happy to see Santos, Taubenhiem, Griffin and Cannon let go to pursue other organizations.

The top 20 prospect list is always based on opinions. I am just a 19-year old kid and if you really think about these top 20 prospects list aren't that useful but they're fun!

I'll try to share some of my insight but most of the time people are going to have different opinions. Feel free to share away.

Here is my updated top 20 Blue Jay Prospect List:

1. Travis Snider OF (Lansing Lugnuts)
   
2. Brett Cecil LHP (Auburn Doubledays)
   
3. Curtis Thigpen C (MLB/Syracuse Chiefs)
   
4. Robinzon Diaz C (Syracuse Chiefs)
   
5. Yohermyn Chavez OF (GCL Jays)
   
6. Jonathan (JP) Arencibia C (Auburn Doubledays)
   
7. Ricky Romero LHP (New Hamshire FisherCats)
   
8. Kevin Ahrens SS/3B (GCL Jays)
   
9. Kyle Ginley RHP (Lansing Lugnuts)
   
10. John Tolisano 2B (GCL Jays)
    
11. Marc Rzepczynski, LHP (Auburn DoubleDays)
    
12. David Purcey LHP (New Hampshire Fisher Cats)
    
13. Josh Banks RHP (MLB/Syracuse Chiefs)
    
14. Chi-Hung Cheng LHP (GCL/Auburn)
    
15. Adrian Martin RHP (Dunedin Jays)
    
16. Eric Eiland OF (GCL Jays)
    
17. Justin Jackson SS (GCL Jays)
    
18. Balbino Fuenmayor 3B (GCL Jays)
    
19. Ryan Patterson OF (New Hampshire Fishercats)
    
20. Brandon Magee RHP (Dunedin Jays)

Some thoughts:
This list is filled with new faces specifically from the 2007 draft. Cecil and The "Zep" are the two big lefty pitchers that we seem to keep drafting. Hopefully for them they don't hit the dreaded AA wall faced by our former top prospects.

As great as it that we have some promising players in the GCL Jays. Just remember the young guns as a whole struggled. Balbino Fuenmayor has fallen from grace but others struggled just as much but are receiving recognition for their tools.

I find that our system is very weak at the moment. We have a lot of unproven talent. Cecil and Snider look like studs but the rest have a lot of question marks going forward. We also don't have a lot of talent in the upper levels of our system.

What do you think?

Nothing better then seeing our rivals lose. One down, one to go. Let's go Cleveland!

Anyway, if Steinbrenner is serious then Torre is out and the Yanks are looking for a new manager.

Does it mean that A-Rod will be leaving as well?

This is great news for us if A-Rod leaves and the Yankees roster can start to look pretty weak if they lose some key free agents. Then again, they could always spend their way back into contention.

Sunday September 23 - Bronx, New York
1:05 PM (EDT)

Sorry for being late, stayed up too late doing one too many biochemistry questions.

This has been an entertaining series thus far despite our struggles with the lead.

If it's any consolation it feels like we're back to last year's antics with great hitting and shooting ourselves in the foot with our bullpen.

Saturday September 22 - Bronx, New York
1:05 PM (EDT)

They are resting Roger Clemens for Phil Hughes as the Yankees do some serious rotation juggling.

Both the Yankees and Jays wasted some arms in the 14 innings game yesterday. We have Banks, Towers and League who didn't pitch yesterday. I am sure Frasor and Downs could step in as well. Hopefully Marcum can go deep into a game but that isn't likely where he has struggled against the Yankees this season to a tune of a 6.06 ERA in 16 1/3 IP.

There isn't much news as it is the end of the season and while we are out of it, beating up on our AL East enemies feels sweet. Go Jays!