Following the wild bitterly resented by any serious analyst success of the Projecting the Enemy series, I come now to bring you the next edition, dealing with the free agent shortstop class. Should the A's sign Furcal? Who's the best bargain? And what would the position look like if the A's don't sign anybody?

Warning: there is going to be a methodological shift in this post relative to the prior posts. Because this is about player acquisition and not about team projection, we need to compare players to replacement level, NOT to league average. (Replacement level hitting is about 20 runs below league average, although it's more like 30 runs for shortstops, who tend to suck at offense.) Average players have value, because there are not an unlimited number of them. So if you're wondering why Crosby used to be a minus and is now (barely) a plus, that's why.

If you're wondering where I'm getting these numbers, they're formed through a combination of: mental Marcels (a rough weighted average of the player's career with more emphasis given to the most recent years), the projections that have been released for the player (if any), a conversion scale which treats 5 OPS points as worth about 1 run over a full season, and fielding evaluations, principally Sean Smith's fielding projections and Revised Zone Rating (blame it on the fact that I'm too cheap/poor, depending on your opinion of me, to buy access to Plus/Minus).

I'll be dividing this into three sections: free agents, trade acquisitions, and stopgaps. To wit:

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Yes, we've rolled around to the point at which I actually go out on a limb and say things about the current A's roster. Nice things? Well, I don't know yet, to be honest. Incidentally, I'll be updating the prior three fanposts on the rest of the division, mostly to reflect the gold mine of information which can be found in Sean Smith's defensive projections, here and here. They're unreliable for very young players, so unfortunately they won't do wonders for the A's, but they're a great assimilation of the defensive information we know about guys who've been around a while. The usual caveats: I'm assuming NO transactions other than guys going back and forth to the minors and options being exercised (which isn't an issue for this year's A's). Let's roll.

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It must be a tough time to be a sports fan in the state of Washington. The Mariners just lost 100 games with their $100 million payroll. The Seahawks are, as of me writing this paragraph, 2-5, which while not technically out of contention in the fetid cesspool that is the NFC West, is pretty gosh-darned close. The basketball team just up and left for Oklahoma City, of all places, after trying and failing to extort a huge cash giveaway from the citizens. As in most extortion situations, the failure to reach a bargain has probably left both sides worse off... but somehow my sympathies lie more with the good people of Seattle than with Clay "Bad Faith Effort" Bennett.

And the college football. Holy Christ, those are some bad teams. Washington State might be the worst BCS conference team I've ever seen. Counting their win over Division 1-AA Portland State, they've been outscored 443-111 on the season. That 443 was accomplished in 9 games, which means their defense is giving up a cool 49 points a game. I tried to calculate their Pythagorean record, and my calculator, I kid you not, spat out one of those numbers with an "e^-2" at the end of it. 

As for Washington, well, Washington State is the team of the two with an actual win this season. The Huskies also have a lame duck coach (ironically, Oregon, which ought in some sense to have a "lame Duck" coach quite often, has the longest tenured coach in the Pac-10).

So, while things are pretty bad-- as bad as I can ever remember, really-- right now around here when it comes to sporting success, thank your deity of choice that you are not in Seattle.

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On to the second in our four-part introductory series on what to expect in the AL West next year. The Rangers could be interesting, as they have a great offense that's dying for some pitching help. And they have pitching in the minors, but it's a ways off from the majors. John Sickels had a thread up on the Rangers not long ago-- it's interesting reading.

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This is the first in a multi-part series on how the A's should approach next season. That question-- to keep selling, to start buying, etc-- is profoundly affected by what the other teams in the division figure to do. So the first step is to figure out: how many wins is it gonna take next year?

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Well, that's what they tell the guys like Craig Brazell, anyway. Remember it, 'cause you're not coming back anytime soon...

The rosters expand after today's game, so I thought I'd take a gander at the situation. The A's are in a bit of a bind right now, with a ton of players who need to be protected from the Rule 5 draft if the team wants to make sure of keeping them until next year. They actually got a head start on things today, calling up Aaron Cunningham while putting Andrew Brown on the 60-day DL.

I figure I'll take a glance at the team's minor league affiliates to figure out who should get a September cup of joe, how many of them are not on the 40-man roster, and who should get the proverbial axe to make room. Obviously, I won't be wasting anyone's time with guys who clearly aren't good enough for the big leagues, so the list of guys who are Rule 5 eligible isn't going to be an exhaustive one. I've bolded the guys I think will be added to the 40-man roster. Of the group that's already on it, I've bolded the ones I think will put in an appearance this September.

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Don't spoil them.

Please.

The Olympics are exciting. They are thrilling. They are the source of a near-infinite amount of news crud of one sort and another. They are beginning tomorrow (yes, before the opening ceremonies... the soccer schedule has to be stretched out to fit it in). They are also, this time around, almost entirely going to be taking place in the dead of the night. While it will be possible to watch certain more... esoteric events (helloooo, women's field hockey-- hey, the USA actually qualified a team this year) live through webcasts, the fact is that a. most of us do not have the iron sleep discipline to stay up to the wee hours, and b. many of the most popular events will ONLY be broadcast on tape delay. Meaning, the fan's fate is in the non-fan's hands.

So-- I, and I'm sure others, would really appreciate it if results were not discussed prior to the prime time broadcast slot-- basically 9 PM or thereabouts. (We could probably make an exception for the performances of the A's Olympic prospects, which are actually germane to the site's topic.) I don't want to have to stay away from the site entirely for two and a half weeks, but I will if I have to... I'd just rather not be forced to make the choice.

Thank you for your consideration.

Now with more Cardenas!

Well, you know me. I'm always one for a good controversy-- and there's not much more controversial than ranking prospects. Especially when you're in the enviable position of having a lot of good ones. Let's be honest, at this point last year we were looking at Jason Perry and Jermaine Mitchell, scratching our heads, and saying "This is it?" And while that might provoke a good round of self-flagellation, always a favorite activity among bloggers, it doesn't exactly make for a rousing debate.

Luckily, things have changed around here. Five [ed: six] trades of veterans for prospects have replenished the system. The A's 2007 draft, bolstered by 3 extra picks in the first two rounds, looks exceptional so far. And several once-ballyhooed prospects have come back from the dead (not literally-- Ted Williams is not hitting for AA Midland) to restore their reputations as future major leaguers.

Just a note, I'm going to post season-long stats. My wrists are more important than separating out Corey Brown's first 6 games in Stockton from his Kane County numbers. Sorry.

Without further ado-- to the rankings!

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And what a debut it was.

6 IP

3 H

2 ER (both coming on solo HR)

0 BB

12 K

Anderson K'd every batter in the opposing lineup at least once within the first 4 innings. The California League seemed to be a bit of a bugbear for Anderson, as evidenced by the bad luck thumb injury, but he's surmounted that hurdle. He appears to be fully back on track in the town where he was born.

What are your expectations for Anderson once he reaches the major league level? Is he a #1? A #2? A back-of-the-rotation guy? Doomed unless he locates his shaving razor, which he appears to have left behind in Stockton?