Dustin Pedroia signed a six-year, $40.5 million contract today with an option for a seventh year at an undisclosed amount. These six years buys out one pre-arb year, all three arb years and two free-agent seasons. Thanks to the standard formula that arbitration typically comes in at 40, 60 and 80% of the player's market value, on average over the three years, we can easily figure out what the Red Sox are valuing Pedroia at.

Lop off the half-million for his pre-arb year and we're left with three arb years and two market years for $40 million. Assuming a static value for all five seasons, called X, we have .4*X + .6*x + .8*X + 1.0*X + 1.0*X = $40M as our formula with X representing the market value that Pedroia has commanded. This simplifies to 3.8*X = 40M or just over $10.5M per season. Add back in the 10% discount that players take for long term security, divide by 4.5M per market win and the Red Sox are paying Pedroia as if he's worth about 2.6 wins a year.

I'm not confident on what Pedroia's defense is like, but unless it's sneakilly atrocious, this looks like a steal. Even moreso when you consider the guy just won an unwarranted MVP Award. Pedroia was worth somewhere around 4-5 wins last year, depending on his defense and even with the regression that should come, he'll be just 25 next season and he seems like a sure bet to exceed three wins at minimum.

It's quite similar to the same amount that Robinson Cano is going to get paid for the same relative time frame. And want more evidence that Evan Longoria might be the most valuable commodity in baseball? He'll be making $10M less for the same six year period.

Firstly, apologies if this has been previously mentioned here, you guys go through so much stuff it's hard for a non-regular to keep track of.

If not, or if you haven't yet seen any of the various posts around the blogosphere (example), Dave Cameron is a finalist for a $10,000 scholarship based on his online writing. For some reason, the winner is decided by an online poll and right now Dave is in a close second place, with voting ending on Thursday.

If you've seen or read any of Dave's work at USS Mariner, FanGraphs, BP, Hardball Times, etc and appreciate all the time he puts in for basically nothing, please take about five seconds of your time and click here and vote for David Cameron. It's a chance to make a real difference for someone and it comes with the great benefit of costing you nothing but two or three mouse clicks.

Thanks.

I know it doesn't come as much of a shock to everyone here, but the BBWAA is still jealous over Scrappy White Player's bitter break up with them. He used to be unloved, neglected, and the BBWAA adopted him like a three-legged FAS puppy, nurturing him with love far beyond what he deserved.

Well, that retarded puppy is all grown up now, and cashing in on the 24-hour news cycle and regional biases and the BBWAA just cannot get over that it's no longer needed. And so, they keep trying to woo their former dunce child back into the fold. They tried candy, they tried praise, and now they're moving on to gifts.

Somebody voted for Raul Ibanez.
Somebody gave Jason Bartlett a 6th place vote.
16 people thought Dustin Pedroia was the MVP in the American League.

I'd like to get worked up into a furor over it, but it's just par for the course for these people. And that's sad. Your profession is to cover baseball, I would hope that you would have enough professional pride and integrity to try and get better at it.

Eh, why not? Assemble your pleas, odds laying, shenagins, poll gaming, et cetera here. No posting at DailyKos asking for support for your choice!

Reference Info

Cameron that is.

USSM Post

Direct Link

It's rare that you get to help people that deserve help and rarer still when that effort costs you nothing but a few seconds (seriously, you have to click your mouse three times) and actually has a substantial benefit.

And hey, if anyone wants to send me $10K to help pay off my student loans, I'm listening.

Item One: Cliff Lee wins the AL Cy Young.
Cliff Lee is certainly deserving, though perhaps a touch less than Roy Halladay given their slate of batters faced. The voters, predictably, didn't see it that way, giving Lee the edge 24-4 in first place votes. Fine, whatever. Here's the inexcusable part though, three voters didn't even put Roy Halladay on their ballot! Uncredible.

Item Two: Marlins keep dumping payroll.
The Marlins traded arbitration-eligible Kevin Gregg to the Cubs for minor-leaguer Jose Ceda. Gregg is a decent enough relief pitcher, offering up some durability and strikeouts with a mediocre walk rate and a so-so groundball ratio. Ceda is a 21-year-old righty who has split time in the rotation and bullpen and made it up to AA last year in relief.

Item Three: Fucking Kenny Williams!
Nick Swisher and Kanekoa Texeira are headed to the Yankees in exchange for Jeff Marquez, Jhonny Nunez and ***********. This is selling low on Nick Swisher who has three years and 22 million left on his contract with a 2012 option at an additional 9.25M. He had a terrible season but it was almost entirely due to his incredibly bad .247 BABIP. His line drive rate was 19.3%, about the same as in previous years and his core numbers show little change from 2006-7. He saw over 4.5 pitches per PA.

Today was the season ticket holder event with new GM Jack Zduriencik. Thanks to Brett, I sneaked in, stole some free food and cribbed some notes on the surprisingly intelligent discourse. Nothing here will be verbatim, but will combine what I felt were key ideas both said and unsaid.

Talent wins. This phrase in one form or another was uttered probably a dozen times and it really seems to be Zduriencik's underlining principle. Above all else, get talented players and everything else will sort itself out.

He mentioned in connection with the managerial search that just because a person hasn't managed at the big league level doesn't mean he doesn't have experience. He went on to specifically talk about coaching and such but I think it's a good indicator again of how he might evaluate talent. It says to me that he's less apt to make a veteran, experience-motivated player acquisition and realizes that experience in the minor leagues counts for something.

He wants to sign Felix long term, but even here mentioned his desire to create a winning team that would make Felix want to stay. In conjunction with a question about Ichiro being moved back to CF, he reiterated that some of the specifics are going to be figured out based on a reaction to what other teams offer. In other words, Zduriencik might not go into a Beltre or Putz trade negotiation saying "we need a LFer" but instead, be more open-ended about it. Made a point of stating that the goal is to fix things the right way. He didn't mention (I thought meaningfully) short or long term. My impression based on that is that he's not committed to a rebuild or retool specifically, but of a "lets make smart moves starting now and when we get there, if we get there" sort.

He talked about revamping how players are developed. Specifically, that each player has their own development pace and they need to be attuned to that. Noted that plate patience has to be preached starting from day one in the organization. Wants to improve the fans knowledge of the minor league prospects as well.

Negated a question about increasing small ball, saying essentially again that talent wins and that the in game strategies are more determined by the club at the moment. In other words, the players drive the strategy, the strategy doesn't drive the player acquisition. Also made a mention without prompting about SafeCo being a tough park on RH hitters, so he at least showed awareness of that, already an improvement.

Wants to really make Seattle a model franchise, in all aspects. Mentioned Tony Blengino in a sabrmetrics view and that they're going to be putting together some researchers to help inform decisions at every level. That more information is better and that they want to be able to equip the coaches and managers with everything they might need.

No on Bobby Valentine and reading (perhaps too much) between the lines, no on Raul Ibanez coming back and unlikely that Fields gets signed unless the signing bonus demand from Boras comes well down.

All in all, it was fabulous. Given the obvious PR needs involved, Zduriencik answered almost every question how I would have liked to hear it answered. I was also pleased with the attendees for asking (on the most part) not stupid questions. For instance, not a single mention of Willie Bloomquist! Only thing lacking was a discussion about defense, but hey, cannot get them all.

...

ESPN.com link

The first round of managerial interviews are about to take place and contrary to previous reports include zero former big league managers. The first seven are:

-Joey Cora (White Sox 3rd base coach)
-Brad Mills (Red Sox bench coach)
-Chip Hale (Arizona 3rd base coach)
-DeMarlo Hale (Red Sox 3rd base coach)
-Jose Oquendo (Cardinals 3rd base coach)
-Randy Ready (Padres minor league manager)
-Don Wakamatsu (Oakland bench coach)

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Nobody saw this coming

More as it comes in, but the return to Colorado isn't yet known. Official word is now Greg Smith, Huston Street and Carlos Gonzalez.

Matt Holliday is due $13.5 million next year in his last season before free agnecy. He will net Type A status though, so keep that in mind when we know what Oakland gave up. Still, this seems like an odd move for a team that just spent a year dumping everyone with value for prospects.