So, as you probably know, the Brewers offered Ben Sheets arbitration on Monday. He has until Sunday to accept or decline. Offering Sheets arbitration ensures one of the following three outcomes:

• Sheets declines arbitration and signs with another team. The Brewers get two additional draft picks between the middle of the first round and the middle of the second round in the 2009 draft.
• Sheets accepts arbitration and either heads to a hearing in February or negotiates a new deal with the Brewers before the hearing.
• Sheets declines arbitration to keep his options open, but still signs a new deal with the Brewers.

None of those outcomes are particularly bad, but one does carry a fair amount of risk. For those not familiar with the process, in arbitration both sides submit a dollar value they think the player's services are worth for 2009. Both sides present their case to an arbitrator, who will in turn choose one of the two figures, with no middle ground.

The problem with Ben Sheets is that there's a relatively wide spectrum of arguments you can make regarding what he's worth. Eric Seidman of FanGraphs took a look at Sheets' value yesterday and even considering his fragile status, he estimated Sheets' 2009 value at $16.25 million.

If the two teams go to arbitration, Sheets and his representatives could point out that:

• Sheets has had an ERA+ over 116 in each of the last five seasons, including 139 in 2008.
• He has a 5.1 strikeout to walk ratio over that same time span, and strikes out 8.4 hitters per nine innings.
• He's been an NL All Star in three of the last five seasons, and started the All Star game in 2008.
• In 2008 he tied for the NL lead in shutouts, finished second in complete games and fifth in ERA.

Given all of that, it's reasonable to believe they'd ask for as much as $18-20 million. You can make a case for comparing Sheets to A.J. Burnett, who's believed to be seeking a five year deal worth $75 million or more. In fact, Sheets has similar stats to Burnett despite being two years younger.

On the flip side, the Brewers could point out that:

• 2008 was the first time since 2004 that Sheets has made 30 starts, and he hasn't thrown 200 innings since 2004.
• His willingness to work hard at rehab and appropriately prepare himself for the challenges of a 162 game season have been called into question.
• Sheets' 13 wins in 2008 were a career high, and he's only three games above .500 (86-83) for his career.
• He's had eight starts over the last three seasons (roughly one in nine starts) where he failed to pitch four full innings.

Given all of that, it's possible the Brewers' arbitration figure could be as low as $10-12 million.

That's a difference of $6-10 million, and it could just come down to which arbitrator hears the case. It's probably fair to assume neither side wants to leave a difference that large to chance. So, if Sheets accepts arbitration, the two sides would seem to have some incentive to work out a deal in advance to avoid the risk. Here's the deal I'd propose:

Two years, $30 million. A team option for a third year at $20 million. If Sheets can either make 30+ starts or pitch 200+ innings in both of the first two seasons of the deal, the option for the third year becomes a player option.

Sheets seems unlikely to take an incentive based deal, so this is likely as close as the Brewers could get to pay-for-performance with him. If he can pitch like an ace for the first two seasons of a deal, then he's earned the right to be paid like one in the third season, either by the Brewers or someone else.

So what do you think? Would you offer this deal? Vote in the poll below.

Poll

How would you feel about offering Ben Sheets the contract offered above (2 years, $30 million, team option for a third year at $20 million, with the possibility to change to a player option given performance thresholds are met)?

• I can live with that.
• I can't live with that, and would offer Sheets more.
• I can't live with that, and would offer Sheets less.
• I can't live with that. I'll take my chances with arbitration
• I'm just hoping Sheets declines arbitration and goes somewhere else.

  85 votes | Results

Some things to read while re-evaluating your retirement fund.

So Brewer management is headed out to Las Vegas for the Winter Meetings, but even before leaving they were working to lower expectations. There's a new poll in the right sidebar asking what you'd like Doug Melvin's priorities to be this week.

Speaking of polls, have you voted in the BCB Reader Survey yet? I'm almost done bugging you about it, I promise.

Ben Sheets has until Sunday to accept or decline the Brewers' offer of arbitration. Using these salary estimates from August, Eric Seidman of FanGraphs has crunched the numbers and estimates Sheets' value at $16.25 million for 2009 or $44 million over the next three seasons. Overall, Dave Cameron estimates the Brewers can afford to spend about $1.8 million per win above replacement if they hope to reach 90 wins.

It seems more and more unlikely the Astros will be able to afford Ben Sheets. They couldn't afford to offer arbitration to Randy Wolf.

For once, I'm four paragraphs into the Mug before mentioning CC Sabathia. The Angels are denying reports that they've shifted their focus from Teixiera to Sabathia, and the lefty reportedly hasn't heard from the Dodgers in weeks.

It's been a few weeks since we've heard any rumors about Prince Fielder, so I guess this is news: he could be available in a deal for starting pitching or a closer.

Do you have some time to burn and an intense desire to vote on awards? Gabe Kapler, Ryan Braun, CC Sabathia and doug Melvin are in the running for This Year in Baseball awards. Voting is open until 11 pm Monday.

As noted below, the Brewers handed out 48 playoff shares yesterday valued at approximately $29,000 each. Elsewhere in baseball, the Rays' playoff shares were over $223,000, which is more than half the 2008 salary of a significant portion of the Rays' roster. Also, somehow the Mets got $9,185 each despite not making the playoffs at all.

As noted in the FanShots, Baseball America rated Caleb Gindl the #12 prospect in Hawaii Winter Baseball. Congratulations to him on the honor.

Meanwhile, the Brewers continue to fill in the gaps in their scouting department. They hired two new scouts and promoted a third yesterday.

Here's what's on the hot stove:

Astros: Re-signed Doug Brocail, somehow convincing the Type A free agent to take a pay cut, even after declining arbitration.
Braves: Acquired Javier Vazquez from the White Sox for three prospects.
Cardinals: Still have not finalized a deal with Trever Miller, which was reported weeks ago. Rumor has it Miller failed a physical.
Giants: May be looking to sign former Cubs reliever Bob Howry, especially now that the Cubs declined to offer him arbitration.
Indians: The team is reportedly unwilling to offer a multi-year deal to free agent Orlando Hudson, more or less eliminating any chance they had of signing him.
Rays: The team may or may not be willing to make a trade involving SS Jason Bartlett.
Red Sox: Signed journeyman lefty reliever Billy Traber to a contract for 2009.
Reds: Walt Jocketty is downplaying reports that the team may be interested in signing Kerry Wood.
Tigers: The team is reportedly engaged in ongoing conversations with the Pirates regarding Jack Wilson.

Two Cardinals blogs, Fungoes and Viva El Birdos, are disappointed by the Cardinals' decision not to offer arbitration to Braden Looper, who made 63 starts for the Cardinals after being converted from the bullpen, and posted a 2008 ERA+ (102) only slightly lower than A.J. Burnett's (105). So if Derek Lowe and A.J. Burnett are both seeking five year deals, Looper could position himself as a cheaper alternative and still get a pretty nice contract.

Can you really cite "tough economic times" as an issue when you're owned by a company worth nearly 11 figures? The Blue Jays are citing economic struggles as the reason for mass layoffs in their sales department. Metro Canada (via The Southpaw) is reporting 20 workers will be laid off, but The Boston Herald (via Baseball Musings) is citing a team source saying it will be "in the 30's."

The Giants' sales department is pursuing a new strategy that doesn't involve lots of empty desks: Approximately 2,000 upper deck seats will be priced based on demand. The story suggests tickets for the Giants/Brewers series in April could sell for as little as $8.

Will time change the Hall of Fame fate of Mark McGwire? A's Nation offers their thoughts and a poll.

Odds are I live closer to Cedar Rapids than most of you do, but if you're within driving distance you might see me at The Cedar Rapids Kernels Hot Stove Banquet, featuring guest speaker (and former Brewer) Jim Abbott. Tickets are relatively reasonably priced and the proceeds go to local charities.

Oh, and I know the economy is tough, but you're just buying someone else's trouble when you purchase a used wheel.

Drink up.

In Mexico: Jason Bourgeois went 1-for-4 with a double for Mochis. It was only his third extra base hit in 88 plate appearances.

In Venezuela:

• Alcides Escobar entered the game as a pinch runner, did not score and did not get another plate appearance in Lara's 14-13, 10 inning win against Aragua.
• Brendan Katin went 0-for-3 with a walk and struck out twice for Zulia.

In the Dominican Republic: Juan Sandoval pitched two thirds of an inning and only allowed a walk for Oriente.

In Puerto Rico:

• Carlos Corporan singled and drove in a run in his only at bat for Caguas.
• Charlie Fermaint went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts, but walked and scored a run for Ponce.
• Mike Rivera went 0-for-2 with a walk for Santurce.
• Efrain Nieves allowed a run on two hits and struck out two in one inning of work for Arecibo.

Some things to read while watching out for giant inflatable bears.

If you're wondering where today's Winter League Update went, there isn't one. Everyone was off yesterday. The Update will be back tomorrow.

There are 74 more days until pitchers and catchers report, but only four more to vote in the BCB Reader Survey. Please take a moment to do so, if you haven't already.

As noted below, the Brewers offered arbitration to CC Sabathia, Ben Sheets and Brian Shouse yesterday, but declined to offer it to Eric Gagne. If Sabathia or Sheets sign with another team, the Brewers get one of thier draft picks (either in the bottom half of the first round or the top of the second), and a pick between the first and second rounds. If Shouse signs with another team, the Brewers just get a pick between the first and second rounds. Gagne is free to sign with anyone, no compensation required.

Also, as noted in the FanShots, the Brewers signed former Braves 1B Scott Thorman to a minor league deal and invited him to spring training. Barring some sort of emergency, he likely won't appear above AAA in 2009.

Are you craving more CC Sabathia links? Rob Neyer wonders if Sabathia's weight and the New York media's tendencies to make fun of overweight athletes might make the Yankees a bad fit for the 290 lb lefty. Meanwhile, Peter Gammons is suggesting the Angels may court him by taking him to Del Taco.

Now, a moment to focus on Jason Kendall's defense. Beyond the Box Score says he saved 4.86 runs this season by blocking pitches, the third most in all of baseball. Kendall's actual block percentage is lower than a handful of other catchers, but Kendall saved more runs based on increased opportunity.

Via Rattler Radio, I noticed that MILB.com has started their Top 50 prospects list, and Jeremy Jeffress is #44. There's a joke here about being high on Jeffress, but I'll pass. Prospects 31-40 are due out today.

This year's Hall of Fame voters will see the smallest ballot ever, with only 23 players eligible for induction. Among ten first time candidates are former Brewers Jesse Orosco, Dan Plesac and Greg Vaughn.

Lots of arbitration news, and some other stuff on the hot stove today:

Angels: Offered arbitration to Francisco Rodriguez, Mark Teixiera, Darren Oliver and Jon Garland, but not Garret Anderson.
Astros: Signed Mike Hampton to a one year deal.
Blue Jays: Offered arbitration to A.J. Burnett but not Gregg Zaun.
Braves: Declined to offer arbitration to John Smoltz.
Cardinals: Declined to offer arbitration to Russ Springer, Braden Looper and Jason Isringhausen.
Cubs: Declined to offer arbitration to Kerry Wood.
D-Backs: Offered arbitration to Orlando Hudson, Juan Cruz and Brandon Lyon, but not to Adam Dunn or Randy Johnson.
Dodgers: Offered arbitration to Manny Ramirez, Derek Lowe and Casey Blake but declined to offer it to Joe Beimel, Greg Maddux, Brad Penny and Jeff Kent.
Giants: Declined to offer arbitration to Rich Aurilia.
Marlins: Declined to offer arbitration to Luis Gonzalez, Paul Lo Duca and Arthur Rhodes. They may also be looking to trade Matt Treanor.
Mets: Offered arbitration to Oliver Perez but not Luis Ayala or Moises Alou. They also signed C Rene Rivera.
Padres: Declined to offer arbitration to Trevor Hoffman.
Phillies: Declined to offer arbitration to Pat Burrell and Jamie Moyer. They also expressed interest in Mark Loretta.
Rangers: Offered arbitration to Milton Bradley.
Reds: Offered arbitration to David Weathers and extended an offer to Arthur Rhodes.
Rockies: Offered arbitration to Brian Fuentes.
Royals: Offered arbitration to Mark Grudzielanek.
Tigers: Declined to offer arbitration to Edgar Renteria.
Twins: Offered arbitration to Dennys Reyes.
White Sox: Offered arbitration to Orlando Cabrera, but not to Ken Griffey, Toby Hall or Juan Uribe.
Yankees: Declined to offer arbitration to all eight of their free agents, including Andy Pettitte, Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi and Chad Moeller.

If you want to check my work or see all this information nicely color coded, Amazin' Avenue has you covered.

Also, the Hanshin Tigers have reportedly agreed to a deal with Kevin Mench.

On a sad note, Blue Jays owner Ted Rogers has passed away. He was 75.

Fire Brand of the American League recently interviewed Peter Gammons, and of course they asked him what he thinks of blogs. His response is moderately incoherent and rambles off onto a tangent, but I think it's possible he likes blogs...maybe?

Oh, and it took Kirbir and I, working together, an hour and a half to beat this game yesterday. Can you do better? I never would have gotten out of the bathroom without her.

Drink up.

Pitchers and catchers report in (approximately) 75 days. Are you ready?

Two things I need to bug you about, briefly:

• If you haven't yet, please take a few moments to take the BCB Reader Survey. I'm curious to hear what you think about what we're doing.
• Two spots remain in the BCB Whatifsports league. For a brief period of time yesterday we were down to one spot. The sooner we can fill the league, the sooner games will begin and I can stop bugging you about it.

Now, with that out of the way, on to the news. By 11 pm tonight, the Brewers will need to make a decision to offer arbitration (or not) to four players: CC Sabathia, Ben Sheets, Brian Shouse and Eric Gagne. It's almost a given that the team will offer arbitration to Sabathia, but they might consider not offering it to Sheets and Shouse. As for Gagne, I'm surprised they haven't already announced a decision to decline.

Ken Rosenthal, via MLB Trade Rumors, says the Brewers' decision on Sheets could impact his market value, as a decision to decline paying an ace-caliber starter $12-14 million next season would be a clear indication that they don't think he can stay healthy. Meanwhile, Roy Oswalt wants Sheets to sign with the Astros. The Astros, however, are citing economic uncertainty and slowing down their negotiations with Randy Wolf.

Here's today's Sabathia Smorgasbord:

• Peter Gammons thinks it will take more than $140 million to get Sabathia.
• Rob Neyer says Sabathia doesn't have much in common with most of the other pitchers who have received $100 million deals.
• David Chalk of Bugs and Cranks has Sabathia at 300-to-1 odds to win Sports Illustrated's Sportsman of the Year.

Tim Kurkijian lists the Brewers among his teams with holes to fill, and says they need starting pitching. Also, breaking news: the sun will rise in the east again tomorrow, as scheduled.

Adam McCalvy's mailbag cites the glut of closers on the market and suggests the Brewers could be players for a free agent closer, but also names Carlos Villanueva and Seth McClung as candidates for the job. Between the Green Pillars says the large number of relievers on the market gives the Brewers flexibility as they look to improve their pitching staff.

If you still want to move J.J. Hardy away from shortstop, here's another argument against you: Chone Smith ranks Hardy as the best defensive shortstop in baseball in 2008.

On the hot stove:

Padres: Trevor Hoffman said his odds of returning to San Diego are "not even 99-to-1." Reports say the Padres will likely not offer him arbitration.
Phillies: The team may not offer arbitration to Pat Burrell.
Rangers: Reportedly will offer arbitration to Milton Bradley.
Red Sox: Reportedly have agreed to a three year deal with Japanese pitched Junichi Tazawa.
Royals: Have signed veteran journeyman catcher J.R. House.

I track it everyday, and even I have a hard time remembering who plays on what team in Puerto Rico or the Dominican Republic, so Jon Shields' idea for one unified winter ball league in the US appeals to me. Of course, then no one would get to be an international man of mystery.

Drink up.

In Mexico: Jason Bourgeois went 4-for-14 over the weekend (all singles) and stole two bases. He's hitting .342/.402/.392 for Mochis.

In Venezuela:

• Alcides Escobar went 0-for-2 with a walk Saturday, his first appearance in a week.
• Brendan Katin went 2-for-9 over the weekend with a walk and a double, drove in three runs and struck out five times.
• Luis Pena had a rough outing Sunday, giving up three runs on a hit and a walk without recording an out.
• The newest Brewer, R.J. Swindle, has already made 17 appearances in Venezuela and is posting a 3.32 ERA. Over the weekend, he threw a scoreless inning on Friday and retired the only batter he faced Sunday.

In the Dominican Republic:

• Joe Bateman gave up a run on a hit in one inning Saturday. He has a 3.66 ERA in 19.2 innings (17 appearances) for Este.
• Juan Sandoval gave up a hit to the only batter he faced Friday, then pitched a scoreless inning Sunday.

In Puerto Rico:

• Charlie Fermaint went 2-for-8 over the weekend with two walks and was caught stealing. Overall, he's hitting .333/.412/.400 in his first 30 ABs for Ponce.
• Mike Rivera went 4-for-7 over the weekend with a walk and a run scored.
• Steve Bray pitched two thirds of a scoreless inning Sunday, to bring his ERA down to 1.98 in 13.2 innings.
• Richie Gardner pitched 1.2 scoreless innings Sunday with a walk and a strikeout. His PWL ERA is 7.98, but it's 2.08 as a reliever.
• Efrain Nieves made his debut for Arecibo Sunday, allowing two hits in a scoreless inning of work, striking out one.

Finally, in the comments on Friday's Update TheJay noticed the following:

• Brad Nelson, who hasn't appeared in the Dominican since November 14, is back in the US getting married.
• Chris Narveson left his Mexican team, citing fatigue, and has been replaced on their roster.
• Casey McGehee returned to the US to deal with a family issue.