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So, I'm not sure how to say this, but we might be saying a tough goodbye to Julio Lugo this winter. Some people might not think it'll be that tough. In a sense, it would be, because we would no doubt have to pick up some of the tab on the rest of the $18M he is owed over the next two seasons. And I cannot imagine a team wanting Lugo enough to send us something of value for him. What teams will be in need of a SS for 2009?

Tigers: Want to lower payroll, so they might decide to go the band-aid route a la 2008 Orioles. And Renteria was a disappointment in Detroit, and I'm not sure they would want to get everyone's hopes up again only to be dashed. Despite all this, there might be pressure to get more than a band-aid option at a cheaper price than what the Pirates might want for Jack Wilson, and what a player like Orlando Cabrera might want as a free agent.

White Sox: With the less-than-ideal relationship between manager Ozzie Guillen and Orlando Cabrera, it is not difficult to forsee a situation in which Cabrera is not resigned. The White Sox look poised to win the division and seem strong enough to have a decent shot at getting to the Series. I doubt there'll be any edict handed down to slash payroll.

Reds: Bit of a longshot here, I suppose, but the position will be open I believe, and the Reds don't operate on a small-market budget for the most part. 

Dodgers: A big-market team that tries to operate on a small-market budget, despite it's GM's preference for veterans to block his capable prospects. Lugo could prove to be cheaper in the short and long run than Furcal if that's the route the Dodgers are thinking of going in, despite the presence of Chin-Lung Hu. 

Giants: Is the organization dumb enough? Vizquel is going to be a FA, and the smart route is to pick up someone out of chances with another organization, or see if one of their internal options could potentially stick. Like the Dodgers, cannot rule them out of acquiring a veteran with more in the rear-view than ahead.

Yeah, not a lot of options, and cannot guarantee that all of them are. We also really couldn't expect anything of value in return. The only thing we would "get" is to free up the spot for the talented Jed Lowrie to hit 2nd, 6th, or 7th for many years to come in this lineup. 

We have to be a little careful here. Lowrie's OPS+ of 116 has been compiled in only 50 ML games. Despite the miniscule difference between his ML OPS (.838) and his MiL OPS (.827) it's still a small sample. The good news is, there's several more games with which to watch and evaluate Lowrie. I personally think that this is the hitter he is. I think, eventually, he'll be a double-digit HR guy in addition to the doubles and clutch hitting. However, it would be prudent to reserve full judgement.

The main question with Lowrie, in view of both scouts and statisticians was his defense. Not many doubted that he could hit with this proficiency at this level. Many doubted that he'd be able to just keep the curtain up on defense at the SS position. They felt he'd have to be moved to 3B or 2B to make up for a projected lack of range. With SSS caveats still applying, let's take a look at how he's done.

RZR (revised zone rating, The Hardball Times): Lowrie's in 238 innings at the position is .833. He'd be right between/among Khalil Greene (considered a good defender) and J.J. Hardy (not considered good, IIRC) if he had enough innings to qualify. Perhaps more importantly, this puts him middle of the pack in RZR, so to say he'd be a butcher could definitely be wrong. He also has gotten to 11 balls out of zone, which would (beware fuzzy math) give him 50-51 in the same number of innings as RZR leader Miguel Tejada. Some of the order of SS in RZR makes it seem questionable, (Jason Bartlett too low, Jeter, Tejada, Michael Young too high) but it's worth considering in this exercise.

Rate(2) (100 as the baseline, Baseball Prospectus): We'll have to go a lot simpler on this one. Lowrie's Rate2 at SS is 99, where 100 is an average fielder. So he is below average in that sense. However, Lugo with an 86 is even more below-average. Lugo is also a -1 in Fielding Runs Above Replacement and -12 in Fielding Runs Above Average, versus 6 and 1 for Lowrie, respectively. 

These are just two statistical sets. Chris Dial has a system as well, which has Jed Lowrie in 6th among ALL AL players to have played at SS this season, which is quite a few if you click through the link on the link I provided to Dial's spreadsheet (notice also: Pedroia a distant 2nd behind Mark Ellis at 2B, and Coco Crisp at the very bottom of AL CFs). 

As I've already mentioned, these are all small samples. We can't count on them to be valid measures of Lowrie's defense, but if he can keep these performances up, the questions about his defense would seem to be answered. 

Everything to this point says that Lowrie will be a more than capable ML SS at the plate and in the field. Is giving him 150 games there next season worth either A) Eating some of Lugo's contract or B) Risking the ire of Lugo by asking/telling him he will be serving as a supersub next season? Honestly, it is. And if the Sox can't make that decision, then I'm not sure how much faith we can have in the FO.

Extra Bases:

"First baseman Sean Casey...has been battling a stiff neck."

"J.D. Drew (back)...his sixth straight game on the bench."

"David Aardsma and Julio Lugo...MRIs today in Boston."

"Mike Lowell (oblique) is scheduled to speak with medical director Dr. Thomas Gill today to get approval to head to New York."

Walking wounded. Injured. Crap Festival. This list didn't even include Josh Beckett, whose return is very much up in the air. There are some who might say that this opens the door for a Yankee/Red Sox-free playoff picture. Our rotation is decent enough for now (Wake, Daisuke, Lester, Byrd), but we've been severely weakened in other areas by this recent ravage of injuries.

We're operating with two players on the roster (Casey and Drew) who can't play. This means that Coco, Bay, and Ells need to basically be playing every inning in the outfield. Aside from Bay, we're pretty punchless out there. The infield is similarly stretched. Hopefully DP, Youks, and Lowrie aren't in need of rest; we need all 3 to be in the lineup somewhere everyday in order to have a chance at scoring enough runs.

There's been talk of adding other players over the waiver wire: Mark Kotsay may be available from the Braves. His OPS+ for the season is 101 and he still provides good defense. His numbers aren't eye-popping, but seeing as he'd only need to provide an offensive improvement over Coco or Ells...

The Sox also signed Jason Lane to a MiL contract. He hit some HRs for the Astros in 2005-2006, but has shown weak on-base skills in the ML, though his career OBP in the minors is .362. I recall him being a decent OF, and the Sox have been using him in RF at Pawtucket. He might be more of an option as a 5th OF when rosters expand, rather than as a temporary replacement for Drew.

Internally, Jonathan Van Every has had a good season for the Pawsox, and might deserve a chance to try hitting ML pitching for longer than one game. Chris Carter remains on the DL, and could require moving Bay to RF? in order to minimize Carter's weaknesses defensively anyway. ...Kevin Millar has cleared waivers. 100 OPS+ this season, though he'd really only be an option to replace Casey if this neck issue is serious. He's played 15 innings in the OF since 2005. If the neck problem is serious, would anyone here be interested?

Jim Molony (of MLB.com) via MLBTR, has reported that the Sox inquired about Darin Erstad. I hope to heck that's not true, even though that lead "fizzled", which would be an accurate description of what Erstad's career has done since 2000. He also apparently believes that we might want Kevin Millwood (1.69 WHIP) or Vicente Padilla (1.48 WHIP). On behalf of all Sox fans, I'd like to throw out a "no thanks" to both of them. Let Pauley start. Give Hansack or Zink another shot. Anything.

Aardsma's injury along with MDC's continuing Jekyll and Hyde act makes me wonder if the Sox might reconsider bringing along Daniel Bard as slowly as they have. While I feel like Chris Smith and Hunter Jones could both be helpful bullpen pieces, Bard is our only semi-advanced prospect who could make an impact in late-inning and high-leverage situations. 

One position I feel confident in for now and in the future is SS. Jed has been impressive to say the least, and there was another column featured on MLBTR which suggested that the Sox could move Lugo this winter and hand Jed the job on a permanent basis. I think we've all seen the same thing out of Lowrie: Solid hitter with a good approach, line-drive power, good patience, and a good enough glove with an (in my opinion) average arm. Lugo may have better defensive tools, but Lowrie has thusfar proven to be much steadier. Expect more about Jed and some speculation of destinations for Julio Lugo sometime tomorrow.

It's kind of a tough time to be a Sox fan. To make the playoffs, it's as though we're in the driver's seat (1 game ahead of the Twins), but our car has a flat tire. What a horrible metaphor. At any rate, there's a lot of pressure on DP, Youks, Papi, Lowrie, Paps, Wake, and Lester to keep the curtain up until we get some of these guys back in action or find pseudo-acceptable replacements. We're coming up on a fairly tough stretch (3 @ MFYs, who will want to make a statement in their last games at the Toilet vs. us; 3 vs. CWS, who have proven a lot stronger all season than I thought they'd be, and are in good shape for winning the Central or if they slip, sneaking off with the Wild Card;). Suddenly it feels vital to win both series, and hopefully take 5 of 6. 

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Show a little more emotion, eh? Eh? C'mon now. Robot.

So. Win. Beat the Jays. All that. Excellent.

The Jason Varitek Revival Tour continues; 2-3, HR, BB, 3 R.

The Dustin Pedroia Laser Show hit Canada; 2-4, HR, 3 RBI.

Julio Lugo continues to not be in the lineup.

F. Coco had a solid game; 3-4, SB, R, RBI

I'm pretty ecstatic about Paul Byrd. Was it ace-quality? No. But this is exactly the kind of effort we want/need from Byrd down the stretch. Keep the curtain up. Don't beat yourself out there. Some other kind of encouraging phrase.

Wouldn't have minded Masterson having a little less eventful 7th; Oki and Paps did their jobs like it was last season.

The Other Sox are 0.5 GB in the WC. Angels and Orioles = no help. So tired of the MFR, though I kind of enjoyed that Rocco Baldelli had a good game. Sue me.

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Papi, congratulating a fellow power hitter after his first-inning HR.

Tomorrow:

Jon Lester, baby. Innings and health bedamned. I want him pitching every game the rest of the season.

Extra Bases:

Consider me a bit confused. Sure, we used up a lot of RPs and innings last night, but Timlin, Paps, and Masterson should all be available for usual workloads tonight. Wouldn't mind having a corner IF option (Chris Carter or Jeff Bailey?) brought up instead. This could be just a one or two-day trip for Pauley until such a move happens, I suppose. Could also be possible that the Sox eventually bring up Josh Wilson and use Lowrie at 3B with Cora at SS and Wilson as the backup for the next couple weeks.

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Paul Byrd coming to Boston.

Found this one out by following the livechat on MLBTR.com. 

Byrd has averaged just under 6 IP per start, or for those scoring at home, more than Clay Buchholz. Byrd could be available to start probably Thursday or Friday. Would it be that strange to see him start opposite Roy Halladay instead of Buch on Friday night?

From a baseball perspective, this makes sense. Byrd is a better option for right now than Buch. The Sox will send the Clevelands a PTBNL or cash later this year.

V.

Hmm.

Hmm again. No Papi, Coco leading off?

If Papi needs off, are we sure we couldn't do this?:

DP, Youks, Drew, Bay, Lowell, Lowrie, Ells, Tek, Crisp?

Everyone should feel free to submit their own "better-than-Tito's" lineup to start the thread. Hopefully Papi is just sitting because of Danks being LH. Speaking of which, Coco does have an .884 OPS vs. LHPs this season...still like my lineup better.

Don't know how welcome this will be; I've been watching Brandon Moss and Craig Hansen for the last couple/few years. They've definitely formed some impressions on me, and maybe these would be helpful to you in looking at your new players.

Best of luck to Moss and the Pirates. However, it's a little sad to see him in another uniform.

Brandon Moss. SoxProspects Profile. 

Defense:

Moss is a corner OF, as you well know, has always played a quality LF and RF when he's been up with the Sox. His arm is good enough to make runners think twice about going 1st to 3rd and going home on a shallow fly to RF or LF, though he's probably not going to draw Vlad Guerrero comparisons. He can play either corner well, in my opinion, and if Steven Pearce (a 1B-convert) is going to be out there with him, Moss should probably be given the harder corner in left field and prove himself capable. 

Offense:

Moss's ceiling never seemed that high to me. His upside is probably Trot Nixon circa 2001-2004 (OPS+: 128, 110, 149, 123). Nixon was never really given a chance to figure LHPs out at the ML-level, which is a choice the Pirates will have to make. Platoon him, and he'll probably hit RHPs well enough to start 130-140 games a year with solid production. Give him a chance against LHPs, and maybe he'll figure them out to the point of not being just a platoon OF. Despite my first sentence, he could hang around as a starting OF for the Pirates if given the opportunity. He has the tools to do so, even if he'll probably never be an All-Star.

Unfulfilled potential, thy name is Craig.

Craig Hansen. SoxProspects Profile.

Bad News First:

Hansen seems like the classic million dollar arm w/ ten cent head. He's never met a PA he couldn't turn into a 3-0 or 3-1 count, and he's prone to walks (4.91 per 9). The Sox have tried to straighten out his mechanics (which have been described as an injury waiting to happen), and in so doing straightened out his fastball and taken some bite off his slider. He was encouraged to resume his normal pitching motions recently. I've not often seen him throw his slider for strikes; it's a chase pitch for him most of the time, so his fastball command needs to be very good in order to be effective. I struggle to envision a scenario in which he's consistent enough to enjoy prolonged success in MLB.

The Good News:

The slider is a bonefide out-pitch when everything's going well. Consistency and command for Hansen could lead to him being a top 5 closer in the majors. He's flashed some of that potential with the Sox, and there are several outings in which he seemed to be the Sox best RP aside from Papelbon. He's probably the part the Sox sent to the Pirates that could be most missed, as his impact as a potential shutdown RP could be huge.

In Closing:

These two could be very useful cogs on the Pirates ML roster for the next several seasons. My feeling is that Moss will succeed, and Hansen will either become your best RP or be close to out of the game in the next couple seasons. I'll be rooting hard for both to succeed either way.

FIP is a metric by which pitchers are judged based on how they pitch. Luck, defense, etc. are intended to be eliminated by the use of this metric. It takes into account how well a pitcher strikes out hitters, controls walks, etc. It is roughly analogous to ERA, though a better measure of how a pitcher is throwing.

Sox Starters, Descending order by FIP:

Justin Masterson: 5.16 FIP v. 3.61 ERA

Tim Wakefield: 4.85 FIP v. 3.77 ERA

Bartolo Colon: 4.45 FIP v. 4.09 ERA

Clay Buchholz: 4.18 FIP v. 5.94 ERA

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 4.18 FIP v. 3.04 ERA

Jon Lester: 3.57 FIP v. 3.14 ERA

Josh Beckett: 3.39 FIP v. 4.15 ERA

Comments:

Beckett and Buch have been unlucky. Beckett's 4.7 K/BB should give him a leg up on the competition, but he's been allowing more HRs than he should be (1.09/9 IP) and his BABIP has been a bit higher (.324) than average (approx. .290-.300). I feel like even Buch's FIP is a bit low. He's been unlucky, but he also hasn't been great. He has, however, been better in terms of K/BB (1.91) than lucky Daisuke (1.47). This reinforced my feeling that Daisuke has actually been the harder one to watch on the mound. His % of runners LOB is about 10 higher than the league-average, and that walk rate (5.4 per 9) is downright scary. That particular house of cards could come crashing down any day now.

Masterson has also been very lucky. He's got similar problems to Daisuke, in that his LOB% is probably unsustainable. His HR rate is high, his BABIP is low (.232), and his K/BB makes me want to vomit (1.62). However, he's definitely still young, figuring it out, and his ability to get GBs has helped him out of jams. (I put him in the starter column, as the great majority of his innings are in that role)

Few pitchers match their FIP exactly, and Colon and Lester are good examples of pitchers who have been close enough to their FIP to not be deemed flukes in some way. Lester's FIP indicates that he's been a high-quality starter this season. And what have our eyes and traditional statistics told us? The same thing. Colon has looked like a league-average starter who's was reliable for us when pitching. His FIP indicates the same thing. By just the starters, Colon's K/BB is second-best among his teammates. Lester is actually 9th among 43 qualified AL starters in FIP.

Wakefield is the breaker of all rules, and to try to pin him down based on his FIP is probably pretty foolish. There are no comparisons for him, really. I'd say he might be a bit lucky, but to assume that in reality he's a 4.85 run pitcher seems wrong as well.

Sox Relievers, Descending order by FIP:

Mike Timlin: 4.41 FIP v. 5.34 ERA

Javy Lopez: 4.25 FIP v. 2.51 ERA

Hideki Okajima: 4.01 FIP v. 2.66 ERA

David Aardsma: 3.44 FIP v. 2.75 ERA

Manny Delcarmen: 3.34 FIP v. 4.05 ERA

Jonathan Papelbon: 1.94 FIP v. 2.05 ERA

Comments:

Paps is awesome. His FIP is actually better than last season, despite seeming more human than ever in the last two years. His K/BB is a strong 8.14, and he's done a better job keeping the ball in the park. MDC, similarly, has improved on his FIP from last season (3.85) by also doing a better job keeping the ball in the park and improving his walk rate. 

Oki? Well, the feeling that he would be something between last season and his horrendous start to this one is probably correct. I don't know that he's ever going to get back to how good he was last season; he was phenomenal. His BABIP (.294) is about right/average, and it has produced a somewhat predictable 1.34 WHIP. Surprisingly enough, his LOB% is higher than last season, which should shock most who've seen him let inherited runner after inherited runner score in tough situations this year.

Javy kind of sucks. I don't know how else to put it. 1.33 K/BB and a probably unsustainable LOB% of his own. Timlin, somewhat surprisingly, hasn't sucked as much as we might believe. To my own eyes, he's certainly pitched a lot better as of late, and could be more trustworthy than some (Lopez) in situations. Aardsma is kind of the enigma. His stunning ability to walk a lot of people made me believe his FIP would be higher than it is, but I suppose his second-best on the Sox K-rate (9.38/9 IP) has helped with that. He's also been very stingy with the longball, best on the Sox staff in that department. We'll see how it goes, but he's certainly worth keeping around for next season.

Just to be clear, I wasn't an opponent of the trade.

Sure, I'm going to miss Manny Ramirez pretty terribly, as I think most of us will. Whatever reports came out about his behavior, or phone calls, or anything else, Manny helped us immensely to two World Series wins in his time in Boston. There's nothing to really replace that, and most of his antics were of the entertaining, pain-free variety.

But we're in a new era now. I'd hesitate to call it the Jason Bay era, but it's definitely the no-Manny era. And one of the benefits of the trade (aside from acquiring a more than capable replacement) is going to be extra $$ to use if we want to in the offseason. And to some degree, we might need to wait until then to decide just how the trade went for the Sox. If that $$ (along with other $$ coming off the books, including Curt Schilling) is used towards someone who can help the Sox in a big way, then I'll be satisfied, as I'm sure most of you will as well.

So who're some of the big names available, in spots where we could use help? After all, we're pretty set at LF, RF, 1B, 2B, 3B and CL for at least the next season. CF is probably locked down as well, in addition to SS for better (Lowrie) or worse (Lugo?) So that leaves bullpen and starting pitching, with only one RP option seeming anything near desirable.

Brandon Lyon. 2008: 1.237 WHIP, 33 Ks in 43 2/3 IP

Don't look at me. I said "near" desirable. Lyon is not a classic power bullpen arm: he pitches to contact and doesn't exactly strike out a batter per inning. However, since he left the Sox (and I suppose one could make the connection: since he left the AL), he's been decent with his control and has forced hitters to beat him. Anyone who knows me knows that I've been pissed as hell this season about our RPs propensity to, if not walk a lot of guys, at least gift wrap 3-0 and 3-1 counts for hitters. This makes Lyon of at least marginal interest to me. Unfortunately, he's been the default closer for the D-Backs, and he'll no doubt be overrated because of his accumulation of (to date) 24 saves. However, if he's passed over enough, I wouldn't mind seeing the Sox sign him.

CC Sabathia. 2008: 1.157 WHIP, 166 Ks in 170 1/3 IP

The crown jewel of the 2008 free agent class, Sabathia will no doubt be sought after by most every team with the $$ to sign him. And the Sox do already have Beckett, Dice-BB, Lester, Buch?, and Wake? as possibilities/probables for the rotation next season. But I'll counter that thought with this quote: "Can it be considered an embarrassment of riches if I'm not embarrassed?"

Ben Sheets. 2008: 1.189 WHIP, 123 Ks in 146 1/3 IP

The risk-taking GM might get himself a gem in Sheets this offseason. I have no doubt that his injury history will scare some teams off, and he'll no doubt not be able to command a commitment beyond 3-4 years. When healthy, he's ace-quality. You'd have to think a team with SP depth in the minors will make a significant overture as soon as FA begins. Could it be the Sox?

Brad Penny. 2008: 1.599 WHIP, 47 Ks in 85 2/3 IP

Penny's season has been injury-filled, and those numbers above don't quite represent the pitcher he is. I have doubts that he'd translate to being an ace-quality pitcher in the AL East, but he could be a good #2-type, and his price could be low based upon the year he's had in 2008. Intriguing, if not entirely appetizing.

A.J. Burnett. 2008: 1.437 WHIP, 153 Ks in 151 2/3 IP

Burnett may or may not be a FA, and if he becomes one we may not want to go anywhere close. He'll only opt-out if he feels it would be to his financial advantage, and he's already due $36M over the next three seasons to complete a $55M contract. However, after an up-and-down season (the 1.437 WHIP isn't exactly typical) he could opt out, go somewhere to build value for a season, then look for another big contract after the 2009 season. Consider me semi-interested if that were the case.

.......

Any ideas  of your own of how to spend the extra $$? No doubt, some of it will go to a catcher (Tek or otherwise), but the Sox could definitely be big-time players in FA, and these are the type of guys we might spend that money on IMHO. I left some players off intentionally for different reasons related to signability/desirability, but I'm of course interested to see other suggestions than the ones I've listed above.

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Jason Bay, clearly contemplating a move to Boston, eh?

Great. Let's completely jump the gun anyway.

So. the possible parameters of a 3-way deal (I know, dirty):

Sox get: Bay, John Grabow

Marlins get: Manuel, CA$$$$$$H!!!! (Not Kevin)

Pirates get: $hitton of prospects. Jeremy Hermida/Josh Willingham

And of a 2-way deal with the Fish:

Sox get: Hermida/Willingham, some unagreed upon package of prospects in terms of # and type and ability.

Marlins get: CA$$$$$$$H!!!! (Not Kevin), Manuel

For the long-term, I almost want the latter. Hermida has room to improve in the power department (career .835 OPS away from spacious, in empty seats and acreage, Dolphin Stadium). Willingham is already pretty good, though he's missed time this year due to injury . Some of the prospects thrown out there are interesting as well.

If we want a great chance at winning this season, then we need the former. Bay wouldn't replace Manuel, but he'd come close, and he'd give us an improvement on the basepaths and outfield over him. John Grabow doesn't excite. Sue me.

The move (3-way) would also save us some money next season, ostensibly, as we'd be paying Bay 7.5M rather than shelling out 20M to Manuel. The Sox could try to extend Bay, or keep him as a placeholder before trying for Holliday or making another trade in the next couple seasons. I can almost get behind the Pirates deal, so long as the prospects (if any) involved on our end aren't Bowden, Masterson, Anderson, Lowrie, Bard (I really believe in him), Kalish, etc. That might be asking a lot, on my part.

I just re-read all that, and I seem so casual. In all honesty, even with his comments and behavior over the last couple weeks, this is still really difficult to talk about.

MLBTR