The Dumbness of Crowds, part 2
This plot uses data from your submissions to GOG #00
. The x-axis gives which place in the AL West we predict Oakland to finish. The y-axis gives our predictions for the number of games Oakland will win (drawn as a histogram, so you can get a rough idea of how many people predicted each win total -- a lot of people thought the A's would be an 89 win team).
The thick solid line is a linear regression, with all points weighted equally. Now, the dashed line shows that Oakland is currently on pace to win only 61.4 games so far (based on our May 11 record of 11 wins, 18 losses). According to the linear regression, that means we will finish in 6.65 place! You would think that this might be impossible in the four team AL West, but don't put anything past these 2009 Athletics!