What's In A Cactus League Number?

by Nico on Mar 27, 2007 5:07 PM PDT in News Comment 30 comments

I'm of the mindset not to give spring training stats more than a cursory glance. Sometimes, especially with players fighting for a roster spot, I'll look at some elements of "overall performance," such as Ryan Goleski's inability to make enough contact or Joe Kennedy's extreme inability to get anyone out at all ever not even occasionally (until after this post was written last night, anyway). These are among the few results I feel have some--though still not all that much--relevance. For those inclined to give much more credence to Cactus League numbers, here are some helpful reminders from the Cactus League, circa 2006:

* Dan Johnson hit .356, then proceded, in the regular season, to keep grounding both baseballs he saw to the second baseman. One limitation of spring training stats is that it tends to show how well you can hit AAAA pitching, not major league pitching, so Johnson's solid Cactus League stats don't really prove what he most needs to prove: that he is better than a AAAA hitter.

* Jason Kendall and Antonio Perez hit .308 and .232, but not respectively. It was Kendall who hit only .232, and Perez who nearly tripled his regular season average in spring training.

* Kiko Calero posted a 9.64 ERA, nearly matched by Chad Gaudin's 7.43 ERA. Both went on to have fine seasons. Joe Blanton won 16 regular season games following a spring in which his Cactus League ERA was 6.45. However, in spring training Blanton did accurately foreshadow that he was inclined to give out more hits than a crack dealer in the Tenderloin.

* Milton Bradley and Frank Thomas each batted .167, while Mark Ellis hit .347, yet it was Thomas and Ellis who got off to painfully slow starts.

So whether you want to use this information to chill out about Blanton and Kennedy or to worry that Piazza and Johnson will slump in April, sometimes it's just good to remember: We've been following the A's games with great interest for a month, and we actually don't know anything.

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I'm Encouraged that Swish and DJ seem to ..

.. be using the whole field .. that was their biggest weakness during their rookie years .. I hope they will show much improvement this year by going the other way with the outside pitch, the off-speed pitch {when fooled}, etc ..

.. the Athletics may be small-market but they have BIG-heart! ..

by Randy Bell on Mar 27, 2007 5:22 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

chron says in an article that DJ is hurt

hip flexor muscle

by OaklandSi on Mar 27, 2007 6:05 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Nice post

Nico...and this is something I've been intending to do for a while.

by Tyler Bleszinski on Mar 27, 2007 6:08 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

You intended to hurt DJ's hip flexor?

by WaddellCanseco on Mar 27, 2007 9:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You grab his left leg and I'll grab his right

by norcalfan on Mar 28, 2007 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

did you just use JB's win total

as evidence for not putting too much thought into ST stats?

Gross.

by fadedash on Mar 27, 2007 6:28 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

He never said Joe B. was a good pitcher.

He simply said he won games.

Now we have 6 or 7 months to enjoy, to cheer, cry, and scream both in frustration and happiness. ~china bob

by baseballgirl on Mar 27, 2007 9:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Precisely--and Blanton

did pitch well enough, often enough, to win 16 games for a team with an offense that was hardly gangbusters. (He did pitch well sometimes, he did pitch deep into games often, and he did give his team a chance to win more often than not.) He also gave up a lot of hits and had a pedestrian ERA. Some of which was "as per" his spring training performance and some of which wasn't.

So as poorly as Blanton has pitched this spring, his performance "portends" about 16 wins as much as it portends a 4.82 ERA, and vice-versa.

All of which is to say, fadedash, that if you want to have credibility you might want to pick your spots and not just post antagonistically left and right (though it does, I suppose, make you a switch-hitter). Toodles for now.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Mar 27, 2007 9:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I still don't get it

So, what you're basically saying is that JB had a bad spring last year and still won 16 games. So don't worry about a bad spring this year, because it projects to 16 wins? I still find that gross, if that's what you're saying.

Which brings me to my other point. Can I not say that without you feeling antagonized? If I don't agree with you that means I'm not credible?

I'll be sure to apply for my posting license after I complete your 6 week credibility course. Are the classroom sizes small? I really enjoy the personal connection. Do you think I should put it on my resume when I graduate? Will it allow me to add a title to my business cards? <----That is antagonistic</p>

by fadedash on Mar 28, 2007 12:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Try this: ST is all sound and fury, signifying...

...nothing.

IOW, nothing in Arizona seems to predict anything in the regular season--good, bad or indifferent. I think it may be because we're compounding small sample size, fitness at the start of camp, different preparation routines and philosophies, weak alignment around winning, etc. etc.

As to he who doth weareth yonder crankypantaloons, I can't help you, there.

The meaning of life is not so much 'found,' as it is 'made.' --Opus

by The Dogfather on Mar 28, 2007 4:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dude, you rub people the wrong way all the time.

And it sure seems like you do it on purpose. Don't act all surprised when people get irritated at you for essentially playing devil's advocate and nit-picking someone's comments like you get paid to find mistakes.

No one cares that you disagree with... just about everything. The main issue is how you go about it. If you don't care that your attitude is abrasive and belittling, then you can't legitimately be shocked when people react to your manner more than your message.

You can be friendly or you can be an ass. Your intentions will be received and responded to accordingly. That's how communication works in our world. You can't just be learning this now.

"$18 mil for 200+ inings, 15+ wins, and a sub 4.00 ERA with no arrests. Fair deal." ~some Giants fan

by Elvez on Mar 28, 2007 6:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thank you, Elvez,

for so eloquently saying what needed to be said. You are my hero for the day. (Tomorrow: Xena, Warrior Princess.)

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Mar 28, 2007 7:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sweet! The only other time I've been a hero...

was when I dressed up as Condom Man for Halloween at my Catholic high school. I had a pillowcase full of rubbers from Planned Parenthood, and I passed them out in the parking lot at lunch.

"$18 mil for 200+ inings, 15+ wins, and a sub 4.00 ERA with no arrests. Fair deal." ~some Giants fan

by Elvez on Mar 28, 2007 8:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

bwaha!

"Everyone knows about it, but nobody's heard of it. Oh, it exists." ~ Dan Johnson

by Poppy on Mar 28, 2007 8:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's quite simple

Piazza and Swisher's spring stats are ironclad guarantees of awesome 2007 seasons. Chavez and Kennedy's numbers are meaningless. QED

"He who makes a beast of himself gets rid of the pain of being a man." --Dr. Johnson

by FreeSeatUpgrade on Mar 27, 2007 8:03 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Last week, Beckett. Now da Bard? Okay, I'll play:

"What of The Game? A Rose by any other word would still be a cheat."

Yeah, too easy. Your turn.

The meaning of life is not so much 'found,' as it is 'made.' --Opus

by The Dogfather on Mar 27, 2007 9:32 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Spring stats are meaningless

on some shrimp.

by Philip Christy on Mar 27, 2007 9:42 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Poor players, strutting and fretting their hour

on some shrimp?

The meaning of life is not so much 'found,' as it is 'made.' --Opus

by The Dogfather on Mar 28, 2007 4:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, what's in a name?

Number. I mean, number.

Really, that was the first thing I thought of when I saw the title.

I think it's hard to judge what will happen during the regular season vs. ST if only because in ST guys are working on a lot of different things and experimenting, so what they decide to go with may not be what gives them success or malaise. Or something. I don't tend to trust ST numbers. Take a look at the Cards - Jason Marquis had a 1.96 ERA in ST last year and see what came out of that. So...

I am going to opening day!!!! At Coors Field! Thanks to my wonderful sister! I am just hoping it is the coolest thing ever because I am blowing off a mandatory musical rehearsal to go to it and I'm terrified that my director is NOT going to be pleased...

I like life. It's something to do.

by Squeaky on Mar 27, 2007 9:44 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm sure your director

will fully support your decision once he realizes you have been given this unique opportunity to meet Jamey Carroll, Choo Freeman, and Ryan Spillborghs. Doncha think?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Mar 27, 2007 9:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think

what will convince her is that I haven't missed a practice yet and I know the choreography. lol, but I'm sure that the names that would convince her would be along the lines of Todd Helton...Matt Holliday, etc. I could always show her pictures of Holliday, Atkins, and Hawpe...

I like life. It's something to do.

by Squeaky on Mar 27, 2007 10:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

i still find it hard to believe that

his name is "Kiko". It can't be easy to pitch with a name like that.

Then again, i'm not yet over the name Mookie. Does anyone else have any favorite unlikely baseball names?

by danh on Mar 27, 2007 9:58 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I think his real name is...

Enrique Nomar or something.

Um...Milton Bradley, anyone? ;-)

Coco Crisp?
Boof?

Now we have 6 or 7 months to enjoy, to cheer, cry, and scream both in frustration and happiness. ~china bob

by baseballgirl on Mar 27, 2007 10:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kiko is a nickname often given to

boys in Puerto Rico named Enrique.

by OaklandSi on Mar 28, 2007 8:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

24 Runs put on the Rangers

Look, I know it's only Spring Training, but did anyone notice the "24" the Padres PUT ON Kevin Millwood, Eric Gagne, Ron Mahay, and the Mighty Texas Rangers Pitching staff. That's pretty funny stuff.

I know that picking the Rangers to win the West is the "En Vogue" thing to do right now (Neyer), but how can that team with it's current pitching staff? Wash can't fix pitching. And Offensively, they're not as good as they were last year (GMJ + Carlos Lee + Kevin Mench is a downgrade offensively... especially Mench vs. the A's).

by Colorado Fan on Mar 27, 2007 10:24 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I think we can learn a little...

Namely, and this was an excellent point you brought up Nico, that Goleski not only isn't hitting, but has a very poor contact rate. (Two games ago, which was the last time I checked mlb.com, which unlike ESPN gives spring k's, he was at 14 strikeouts in 41 at-bats - not good).
I think we learned a few important things in spring:
a. Goleski isn't good enough to carry on the roster right now, especially since the OF is thin and brittle and our backup OFs will be getting important ABs.
b. Harden is healthy, and when he is healthy, he is still very dominant.
c. Durazo still has Tyrannasaurus Rex arms.

There may be a few other things we learned but clearly those three are the most salient.

"Fictional numbers are really effective for making your case." -Devo

by notsellingjeans on Mar 27, 2007 10:42 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I'd like to add

Stewart looks fantastic. He's running hard all the time, rounding the bases well, doesnt favor or run cautiously on that foot.

"...we don't score six, seven runs. We score three, four runs and play defense and pitch" - Eric Chavez

by pickinmachine on Mar 28, 2007 9:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I never know anything...

so I'm already in midseason form.

"Everyone knows about it, but nobody's heard of it. Oh, it exists." ~ Dan Johnson

by Poppy on Mar 27, 2007 11:50 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow,

Creeps in this petty pace from day to Opening Day.

The meaning of life is not so much 'found,' as it is 'made.' --Opus

by The Dogfather on Mar 28, 2007 4:39 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

good topic

Its easy to get distracted by ST numbers. Probably because most of us are desperate for baseball and when we see these extreme numbers, we start to play the 'what if' game. What if DJ can hit 30HR etc. As Nico points out, none of these stats matter, or effect performance on the regular season.

"...we don't score six, seven runs. We score three, four runs and play defense and pitch" - Eric Chavez

by pickinmachine on Mar 28, 2007 8:52 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs