Can This Lineup Give Us The Runs?
The A's and Diamondbacks square off tonight at 7:00pm PDT, in a game broadcast on the A's radio network...
It's difficult to make A's predictions with any confidence, due to the glue & duck tape factor that is Oakland's collective health prognosis. Certainly, the team will perform better if Harden's fastball is being skied to Bradley in CF than if Halsey's nothingball is being lined to Bocachica.
But given the current roster, I am probably feeling more optimistic about the A's offense than the average fan is feeling. Now don't confuse that with delusions of overall grandeur, as I am not necessarily as bullish on the post-Kotsay defense (forcing Swisher to the outfield, among other things), or the back end of the rotation. However, I do think the 2007 A's can outscore last year's team despite the loss of Frank Thomas. Today I offer two bases (that's the plural of "basis," not "first and third") for this optimism.
* I believe that the "not wearing down by catching factor" will trump the "changing leagues factor," and that Piazza will put up better numbers than he has in the last couple seasons. And remember, a normal season for Piazza yields a .300+ average and .400 OBP, with good power and great RBI production. With the additions of Piazza and Stewart to join Kendall and Bradley, the A's have at least four hitters who are capable of hitting .300. Overall, I really like the depth and punch from a healthy 2-6 of Stewart-Bradley-Piazza-Chavez-Swisher. Ultimately, I don't think this team will rely on one hitter as much as last year's team did, and that's always a good thing.
* I suspect that Geren will help the A's avoid hitting into so many double plays. The problem I had with Howe and Macha is that they seemed to view bunting or stealing only as means to "play for one run". Bunting (especially with two on), stealing, and the hit-and-run can be used not so much for "small ball," but rather to avoid the rally-killing DP. I have a feeling that Geren believes in this, and is just generally more committed to finding many different ways to score runs. You don't have to abandon a basic philosophy to build on it and add on to it. You can score four runs the way you always have and create another run by being creative or resourceful. I see Geren as the "four plus one" manager; I hope I'm right.
The A's aren't going to win that many games 3-2 this year. Blanton and Loaiza are more "innings eaters" than consistently dominant pitchers, meaning they are guys who can win if you give them a little offense but will probably post a mediocre ERA. Add Kennedy and you have 60% of the rotation in need of the ability to figure out how to score that extra run or three. I think this lineup and this manager may be up to the task.
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Comments
We shall soon find out ..
.. although the A's get off to a notoriously slow start in April and May .. which, btw is another thing I'd like to see change, or be surprised by - a faster start to the season. But we shall soon see ..
by Randy Bell on Mar 16, 2007 8:36 AM PDT 0 recs
.. and although other A's fan pooh-pooh it ..
.. at least the last time I remember it being brought up -- I do agree, and like the idea, of creativity on the basepads to avoid so many GIDPs and maybe manufacture some runs -- the Angels seem to be very good at that, although I realize they have more team speed.
by Randy Bell on
Mar 16, 2007 8:39 AM PDT
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A's haven't hit and run in the Beane era and I
don't see that changing. Although with Crosby's new approach to hitting, runs will increase.
by Bacon on Mar 16, 2007 8:47 AM PDT 0 recs
Crosby said he's not going to change his approach
see this article:
by OaklandSi on
Mar 16, 2007 9:40 AM PDT
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Too bad....I thought he was smarter than that. Oh
well, at least we won't be hear any analysts touting him for MVP.
by Bacon on
Mar 16, 2007 10:03 AM PDT
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Aint that the truth
I was shocked when I ran across that in an article on A's a few days ago. I am going to throw my back out of place because that is the way I hit and that is what got me here. Ha Ha. Be a chump... hitters shorten up to protect the plate when they have two strikes on them. What is wrong with him doing the same???
by Charlie Brown on
Mar 16, 2007 4:51 PM PDT
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I Wish BobbyC would try that too ..
C.B. said: hitters shorten up to protect the plate when they have two strikes on them. What is wrong with him doing the same???
Agreed, it wouldn't hurt for Bobby to try that .. :)
by Randy Bell on
Mar 16, 2007 5:59 PM PDT
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Offense
I think that the A's overall will be improved. I think that all the positions outside DH and 1st base will be a lot more productive. 1st base being Swisher should at least a wash this year. (who ever is at first should be an improvement over Kotsay's stats) DH will be a drop, just a question how much. I have some hope Piazza's able to fill that hole, on the other hand a DH is not hard to find and if he does not then my guess is that they either wait on Kotsay or go get a hitter.
As for running, the A's philosophy of taking a lot of pitches just does not lend itself to hit and run. I do not see that changing. Beane's computer factors in the double play and it says that playing those percentages is better to hit away and risk the double play. Though I think Geren is going to encourage his hitters to be more agressive with men in scoring position. I do not see him changing a lot. Though he may do some running just to keep teams honest. Because if anywhere the computer breaks down is that if a team or player becomes too predictable it loses a lot of it's advantage of playing the percentages. (i.e. if your not stealing fewer fastballs are thrown, pitchers are not rushing throws, no pitchouts, ...)
by ogallalabob on Mar 16, 2007 9:23 AM PDT 0 recs
DH
I love Frank Thomas last season... Man-Crush Love.
However, BIG FRANK only managed 11 doubles. Piazza (if healthy) will hit 3X as many doubles, and 2/3X as many HR's. Is that a bad thing?
by Colorado Fan on
Mar 16, 2007 10:53 AM PDT
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Let's Get **HOT** Over the Summer ..
.. something like in '05, MAN like .800 ball for couple months -- I know, I know, I'm Dreamin and it won't happen again in my lifetime but -- I can dream can't I? Hehe -- and maybe during hot streak we get production up and down the lineup, including from Crosby, DJ, and Ellis .. even Perez hits when a sub, Scutaro too ..
by Randy Bell on Mar 16, 2007 9:35 AM PDT 0 recs
A little optimistic on Piazza, no?
Piazza last posted a 400 OBP in 1997 and a 300 AVG in 2001. A normal year for peak-Piazza could OBP ~375 while hitting 300.
Given that we don't have peak-Piazza, but allowing for some optimism as he moves off of catcher, 290/350/550 would be - in my mind - a realistic upside. Excellent production, yes; but methinks Nico is a little sanguine on Piazza.
by salb918 on Mar 16, 2007 9:36 AM PDT 0 recs
funny thing is
Piazza has been hardly better than Shea Hillenbrand over the past few years. In almost every way you break it down, they've been quite similar.
And yet we laugh at the Angels for that deal and bow down to Beane for the Piazza deal.
Mike Piazza: 1 yr/$8.5M
Shea HillenBrand: 1 yr/$6.5M
Past Three Years
MP, Away: .258/.333/.450 (.783 OPS)
SH, Away: .277/.327/.418 (.745)
MP, Home: .276/.356/.481 (.837)
SH, Home: .310/.343/.495 (.838)
MP, vs L: .312/.406/.530 (.936)
SH, vs L: .328/.366/.514 (.880)
MP, vs R: .253/.325/.446 (.771)
SH, vs R: .280/.323/.433 (.756)
MP, Overall: .267/.344/.465 (.809)
SH, Overall: .293/.335/.455 (.790)
Piazza has been slightly better, hence the extra $2M for one season, but he hasn't been that much better.
Funny how much a player's past is glorified in baseball.
by fadedash on
Mar 16, 2007 9:56 AM PDT
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Beat me to it
Though I'd add that Piazza last slugged .550 in 2001 as well. Piazza has looked good in spring training, so I've already raised by expectations a bit, but I'd still be surprised at anything better than .290/.360/.500 (which would be only a tick better than what he did last year, but would also be his best season in 5 years).
by andeux on
Mar 16, 2007 10:01 AM PDT
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Macha had talked in several spring trainings
about wanting to get players moving more to avoid DP's. I suspect that in the regular season he hardly did it because Beane doesn't believe in it much. Hopefully Beane will give Geren a lot more freedom to follow this.
Also, another issue is that in the A's system the players don't practice or execute such things enough. It doesn't make alot of sense to bunt, squeeze, and hit-and-run much if your players aren't good enough at it.
Mind you, I'm all for it!
by OaklandSi on Mar 16, 2007 9:39 AM PDT 0 recs
can you give reasons why you think
Piazza will be better?
Although Piazza hit well away from Petco last year, he hit horribly against righties (.257/.314/.449). Is that what you want your everyday cleanup hitter to do? And that will be fixed, how? If you're going to say rest, Bochy gave him plenty of rest last year, which is why he only had 439 PAs.
And speaking of double plays: Frank Thomas, who can't run, hit into a DP in 14% of his opportunities. Piazza hit into DPs with the Padres 15.2% of the time. These are the same Padres that were #7 in all of baseball in SBs last year and had nearly 3x as many sacrifice hits as Oakland. The A's might utilize small ball more under Geren, but not to that extent.
The beauty of Thomas was that only 24.8% of his balls put in play were ground balls. Piazza hit 40.2% ground balls.
And DPs will decrease how again?
You're right about Stewart, Chavez, Bradley, and Crosby. They should all produce better at their positions than the guys who were there last year.
But I'd like to see you expand more on the two points you offer today about Piazza and fewer DPs because I'm not seeing that light.
by fadedash on Mar 16, 2007 9:40 AM PDT 0 recs
One difference with Piazza I see already ..
.. he uses the whole field - he goes the other way when pitched on the outside - whereas Big Hurt was a dead pull hitter. Thomas hit only one HR to opposite field last year, in Cleveland.
by Randy Bell on
Mar 16, 2007 9:45 AM PDT
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Piazza was doing that last year
as well. That didn't stop him from hitting the ball in the ground 40% of the time and hitting into DPs more often than Thomas.
Thomas might have been a dead pull hitter, but he pulled the ball in the air. 6th highest fly ball rate in MLB. You're not going to hit into as many DPs that way, and that was indeed the fact last year.
Like I said, the Padres were a running team that executed small ball tactics way more frequently than we will this year. Piazza hit into more DPs than Frank Thomas, even with that style. And things are expected to change this year? Why?
by fadedash on
Mar 16, 2007 9:59 AM PDT
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Can't Argue with this One
.. Piazza when he does get on base will not clog things up like Big Hurt. In one of the early ST games he scored from first base on a double. I recall the A's broadcasters {Fosse et. al.} pointing out, that would never have happened last year with Thomas .. Hopefully we won't see any "singles" hit to the wall either ..
by Randy Bell on
Mar 16, 2007 10:12 AM PDT
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yeah
that definitely going to be one of the benefits
by fadedash on
Mar 16, 2007 10:20 AM PDT
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Another good point
The three main indicators of a batter's double play rate are (slow) speed, (low) strikeout rate, and (high) ground ball rate. It sounds like Piazza (like Kendall, Kotsay, and Hatteberg before him) might be on the wrong side of the ledger in all three categories. Thomas, as you point out, didn't hit many balls on the ground which made up for his glacial speed.
Extra bunts or hit-and-runs are no panacea for the problem. You're liable to decrease the number of double plays, but at the expense of extra outs given away in other ways. Encouraging your players to strike out more like Antonio Perez, or pop everything up like Eric Byrnes would have the same effect, but few would advocate that. And, of course, even the most bunt-crazy managers (read: Mike Scioscia and Dusty Baker) don't usually bunt with their #4 or #5 hitters.
by andeux on
Mar 16, 2007 10:13 AM PDT
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yeah
I'm not saying that bunts and hit-and-runs will solve an offensive drought, but they will reduce the number of DPs (either by running into an out and removing the base runner, or by advancing the runner out of a force out).
What I'm saying is that the Padres did this last year. They were #7 in MLB in SBs and they had twice as many sacrifice hits as the A's, and yet, Piazza still grounded into DPs at a higher rate than Frank Thomas.
Nico thinks that his better speed and the fact that the A's are talking about using "smallball" more will reduce the number of DPs. In this situation, however, that probably won't happen. The 2007 A's surely won't play as much "smallball" as the 2006 Padres and Piazza will continue to hit the ball on the ground at a high rate.
by fadedash on
Mar 16, 2007 10:24 AM PDT
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Let's Hope for opponent defensive breakdown ..
{Grin} .. lots of E3's, E4's, E5's, and E6's - along with Pitcher Fielding Errors a la W.S. Tigers - to THWART those double plays ..
by Randy Bell on
Mar 16, 2007 10:30 AM PDT
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I'm mostly agreeing
but drawing any conclusion based on the teams' respective rates of sacrifice bunts is extremely misleading for a couple of reasons.
First, because even the most determined moneyballers would have their pitchers bunt when they can, every NL team will have many more sacs than every AL team.
And second, a bunt will really only have a big effect on the DP rates of the guy doing the bunting (because it prevents him from hitting a grounder to the shortstop) and the player batting directly behind him (because he is less likely to come up with someone on first and zero or one outs). Piazza was mostly hitting fourth, behind Brian Giles, and neither one of them sacrificed even once. The Padres got most of their non-pitcher sac bunts from Dave Roberts, who was hitting first.
The same is true (to a slightly lesser extent) of stolen bases, and most of the Padres steals were Roberts (1st), Mike Cameron (2nd), and Josh Barfield (8th) so again it's not that surprising that they didn't really help Piazza stay out of double plays.
I suppose one thing you could do to try to minimize double plays would be to bat your double play threats directly behind your good-speed, low-OBP players. But the effect would probably be so small that it wouldn't really be worth it. With someone like Piazza, who is also expected to be a run producer, it would probably be counterproductive.
by andeux on
Mar 16, 2007 10:51 AM PDT
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exactly, that supports my point
- The A's don't play in the NL. They won't be bunting over as much. They most certainly won't be in the top 10 in MLB in SB's.
- Piazza will continue to bat 4th and 5th. Bradley/Swisher/Chavez will not be bunting ahead of him.
Piazza is going to bring over a greater DP rate than Thomas had.
by fadedash on
Mar 16, 2007 10:57 AM PDT
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Agree
I don't think we can count on a substantial decrease in DP's - but hopefully we keep clogging the basepaths and even with a high DP & LOB (ie frustration) rate we can score enough runs to keep winning.
OT Andeux - are you going to see Frisell tonight? Also - I like the On the Beach reference in you sig.
by sslinger on
Mar 16, 2007 10:45 AM PDT
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OT answer
Sadly, no. Though I'll be seeing some music at the Ashkenaz instead.
by andeux on
Mar 16, 2007 11:02 AM PDT
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i'd somewhat agree with ya nico
i'm bullish on the a's "o" this yr-then again, i delute myself with this hope every yr.
i'm hopeful geren will be a little more agressive when it comes to hit-and-running etc then what we've witnessed during previous yrs.
piazza will be interesting to watch but i'm expecting stewart to have a very good yr. great signing by beane....as usual.
by bigelephant on Mar 16, 2007 10:11 AM PDT 0 recs
No, It Can't
The A's have a great chance of being competitive this year, but last year's line-up stunk for most of the season and there's no good reason to believe this year's Hurt-less group will be much better. The "heart" of the line-up is Chavvy, who has never hit in the clutch, and Bradley, who gets hurt a lot, and, um ... Piazza?
The A's bullpen is loaded and their defense is just fantastic - a joy to watch each night - and the club is fun to follow and root for. But they can't hit, especially with runners in scoring position.
by solotar on Mar 16, 2007 10:36 AM PDT 0 recs
Except maybe if they get hot this summer ..
.. a la summer of '05 .. or like the Twins got hot in 2nd-half of last year {'06} .. the A's do have a "streakishness" to their offense and character IMHO .. and could get hot and hit better ..
by Randy Bell on
Mar 16, 2007 10:43 AM PDT
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not true
It's simply not true that they "especially" can't hit with RISP.
In 2006:
.735 OPS with no one on base (3054 ABs)
.735 OPS with RISP (1389 ABs)
.752 OPS overall (5500 ABs)
They simply can't hit, period. RISP or not.
by fadedash on
Mar 16, 2007 10:46 AM PDT
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I'd rather have a club like the A's than ..
.. like the Indians of last year {'06} .. sure they had tons of offense but still lost games like 10-8 or 16-14 etc .. because their bullpen gave it up and could not hold down the opposition .. Cleveland was not a very good team last year {sub .500} because no pitching .. particularly no pen ..
by Randy Bell on
Mar 16, 2007 10:52 AM PDT
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but it's easier to put together a bullpen
by scratch than it is to put together an offensive juggernaut.
put the indians in the west this year and i'm sure they'd be favored more to take the division than oakland
by fadedash on
Mar 16, 2007 11:00 AM PDT
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Hmm we'll see ..
.. let's see if cleveland finishes with better record than oakland this year ..
by Randy Bell on
Mar 16, 2007 11:05 AM PDT
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oh really?!
Texas Rangers' fans would argue that point!
by AAAAAces on
Mar 17, 2007 9:45 AM PDT
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Can This Lineup Give Us The Runs?
Who is in charge of the nacho pre-game spreads this year?
by F171615 on Mar 16, 2007 10:52 AM PDT 0 recs
It's weird to write something and see
what people read; not always the same thing. It seems many interpret me as arguing that Mike Piazza will hit into fewer DPs than Frank Thomas did. Piazza will probably hit into more DPs than Thomas did, because Thomas didn't hit into very many and because (hopefully) Piazza will bat a lot with runners on and less than two out. But that comparison really has nothing to do with what I'm arguing, so...who cares?
Why do I think Piazza could hit .300? He, like very few hitters (Nomar would be another) has the hitting ability to bat .340, .360--he's actually done that. Anyone, once they decline enough, will only hit .150 (like Wade Boggs today would probably be a bit overmatched). But as long as Piazza can still hit (which I believe he still can), a guy who has been good enough to hit .350 is capable of hitting .300--because guys who spray line drives to all fields will find a lot of holes. We'll see; maybe he can't hit a good fastball anymore, maybe he can. Time will tell...
by Nico on Mar 16, 2007 11:31 AM PDT 0 recs
That is the way I read your post ..
.. not that Piazza would hit into less DPs but .. that the A's might score more runs this year. I totally agree with you -- I like the way Piazza uses the whole field -- we will miss Big Hurt's power but not his popups .. I remember he started off slowly last year, some of the callers to Robert Buan's extra innings were calling him "the Big Popup" .. {g} ..
by Randy Bell on
Mar 16, 2007 11:36 AM PDT
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Also other variables such as ..
.. a healthy Crosby and Chavez could make a huge difference this year offensively ..
by Randy Bell on
Mar 16, 2007 11:38 AM PDT
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Unless Larry Davis lobotimized Crosby in order
to get him to stop swinging at the low-and-away junk, I don't see him making a "huge difference".
by Bacon on
Mar 16, 2007 1:47 PM PDT
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22 Dingers in 2004 .. plus Chavez ..
.. if Crosby could stay healthy he obviously helps on defense and .. could add some power to a 'power-challenged' offense ..
.. even if you can't see Crosby contributing as he did in '04 {and parts of '05 we had winning record when he was playing} -- surely there is no question that a healthy Chavez can help out tremendously - rather than a Chavez who could barely swing the lumber due to the tendinitis in his forearms all last year ..
by Randy Bell on
Mar 16, 2007 2:06 PM PDT
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and i think you're misreading as well
mentioning how piazza will hit into more DPs helps support the notion that the A's probably won't hit into fewer DPs. You really think they'll run their way out of those situations enough to make a difference? i guess it's just something you "believe."
the fact that we're bringing over a guy who will hit into more DPs doesn't make me a believer, unless you have some actual, concrete reasons that can change me mind matey.
also, i'm really not understanding the logic behind you saying because piazza has hit .340 in the past he can be a .300 hitter again. does that mean darin erstad is a .300 hitter this year?
projections are great. projections with evidenced support are even better.
by fadedash on
Mar 18, 2007 12:22 PM PDT
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Yeh but Piazza won't be Popup King ..
.. like Big Hurt .. {g} .. it all washes out, I will take the Piazza hard line drives over the Big-Hurt "piece of cake" popups, along with some small increased percentage of GIDPs .. as Nico suggested, line drives sprayed all over the field have a much better chance of finding holes than the sky-high popups that Big Frank was infamous for .. we shall soon see who is right .. {g} .. actually nobody is right or wrong, we're just speculating, we're all A's fans and want success ..
by Randy Bell on
Mar 18, 2007 12:58 PM PDT
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You're exactly right, Randy Bell:
by Nico on
Mar 18, 2007 2:30 PM PDT
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and thats fine
i guess asking for some analysis is too much?
by fadedash on
Mar 18, 2007 7:04 PM PDT
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I Don't Have the Stats for Popups ..
.. it would be interesting to see what percentage of outs Thomas made in the air during the early part of the season last year ..
.. I do know that some fans calling into Robert Buan's Extra Innings were so frustrated with Frank's slow start, they suggested changing his name from Big Hurt to Big Popup .. {g} ..
I think Nico is trying to say, he isn't motivated in the way you suggest:
Quote: if you have an idea you believe in, you'd want to let others know why you believe in that, and maybe they will too.
I don't think Nico wants to try to convert you from your pessimism concerning Piazza, nor do I. ;-) We read your posts and see your point ..
Take Care, and Go A's !!
by Randy Bell on
Mar 18, 2007 7:48 PM PDT
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A little help please
I'm trying to post a new diary, but it is saying it's not allowed due to the tags....huh?
by Tony on Mar 16, 2007 12:22 PM PDT 0 recs
Sorry, Tony, but AN is set up so that
if you have ever cut off a mattress tag in your life, you can't post a diary. Hey, I don't think the warning on the mattress labels could be any clearer.
by Nico on
Mar 16, 2007 1:57 PM PDT
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possibilities:
-You need to add at least one "tag" for each diary. At the bottom of the diary screen there's a tag entry form. Just write some word that's the topic of your diary. That is most likely the problem.
-You tried something in list format and got "error tag li." If you did that, you can copy it into word or notepad or something and paste it back in and it will work. Copy and paste will solve a lot of the tag problems.
-It says you need to hit refresh before posting your first diary in the new format, so that could be the problem.
by mikeA on
Mar 16, 2007 5:01 PM PDT
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So many joke possibilities
with tagging bitches. Thanks for the info, Mike, it is the "error tag li" that I'm getting.
by Tony on
Mar 17, 2007 12:40 PM PDT
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A teeeeeny correction, Nico . . . .
. . . . it's duct tape. Since I don't possess the ability to see the big picture, offer insightful analysis, or craft clever commentary, I'm unfortunately reduced to picking nits.
by camperdog on Mar 16, 2007 2:09 PM PDT 0 recs
Y'know, I did think about it, camperdog,
but I've actually seen it both ways. Maybe so many people were mispronouncing it that some companies adopted the incorrect version, but I swear I've seen "duck tape" on the label of said product. (I only know that because it caught my attention.)
And let's face it: when forced to choose between two possible words, if one of them is an animal and one isn't, I'm going with the animal for the "cute image" factor. I mean, quack.
by Nico on
Mar 16, 2007 2:14 PM PDT
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Actually, the history of "duc- tape"
is kind of interesting (thanks, google). Check it out: http://www.octanecreative.com/ductta...
by Nico on
Mar 16, 2007 2:19 PM PDT
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It's on the Web, so it must be true!
That history is dubious. Many (including me) consider it urban legend. It hasn't been conclusively disproven, but there's no documentation whatsoever of the tape being called "duck tape" in the WWII era. Documented evidence of "duct tape" precedes that for "duck tape" by several years, strongly suggesting that "duct tape" is the original term. The "water off a duck's back" story certainly smells of folk etymology.
The duck story cite was popularized by Safire, whose reputation far exceeds his credibility. It certainly wouldn't be the first time he was blatantly wrong. Mikkelson (Snopes), usually more reliable, alludes to a different duck story, but she doesn't devote a fully researched article to it. I think she's wrong, too.
by iglew on
Mar 16, 2007 7:33 PM PDT
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duck tape
There's a company that sells duct tape with the brand name "Duck Tape". That's probably what you've seen.
I think it's just the one company. If another company tried to do it, I expect it would be a trademark infringement.
by iglew on
Mar 16, 2007 7:20 PM PDT
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We'll see...
by eriklovestheathletics on Mar 16, 2007 5:26 PM PDT 0 recs
Marty Lurie's pregame show just started!!!
I notice it's not on 106.9 fm, but is on 1550 am
by OaklandSi on Mar 16, 2007 5:33 PM PDT 0 recs
DJ is hitting 8th in the lineup ..
.. I hope he can pick it up a bit .. will need some power from 1st-base position ..
by Randy Bell on Mar 16, 2007 6:04 PM PDT 0 recs
definitely a sign
lineup for those of you who haven't yet heard
Kendall C
Stewart LF
Bradely CF
Piazza DH
Chavez 3B
Swisher RF
Ellis 2B
Johnson 1B
Scutaro SS
by OaklandSi on Mar 16, 2007 6:09 PM PDT 0 recs
Ken Korach giving Marty a hard time
about his speeding ticket...entirely too much time!!
by OaklandSi on Mar 16, 2007 6:26 PM PDT 0 recs








