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A Loaiza Scenario To Consider

Goat_tiny by Nico on

Let's say that if they're going to acquire Loaiza, the Dodgers say they need him now, not just next season. But they couldn't acquire him before the July 31st deadline because his health was still too uncertain. And let's say the A's and Dodgers agreed on a package deal (for Loiaza and another A's player/prospect) that would land the A's a player we'd really like them to acquire--such as Andy LaRoche--but who is too good to clear waivers.

An off-season trade doesn't serve the Dodgers' needs as well because they need Loaiza now. And a deal for a prospect not on the 40-man roster doesn't serve the A's as well because they want more than that for an affordably priced, middle-of-the-rotation starter . So Loiaza is sent to the Dodgers now, and in the off-season another A's player/prospect is sent to the Dodgers for LaRoche (or whomever).

All needs are served. Doesn't this make sense, more than Beane giving away a valuable trade chip without getting a player in return--when clearly he could deal Loiaza, and his salary, to any number of 29 teams in the off-season and get some talent in return?

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yes

it does make sense

so I guess we'll see if LaRoche, Kemp, Loney or someone comes from the Dodgers for a bag of peanuts

Let's have our Piazza and eat the Cust too - SPWC

by closetasfan on Aug 29, 2007 2:50 PM PDT   0 recs

hate replying to myself

but then, wouldn't they have just said Loaiza for PTBNL?  Maybe he did just give him away, which would be odd

Let's have our Piazza and eat the Cust too - SPWC

by closetasfan on Aug 29, 2007 2:53 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

The PTBNL cannot be a major leaguer

so that particular avenue is, unfortunately, not available in this case. LaRoche has played in the majors (this year, even).

by PaulThomas on Aug 29, 2007 3:17 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

That's incorrect

The PTBNL can be a major league player as long as he changes leagues.

Yep. Warm and fuzzy... that's me.

by grover on Aug 29, 2007 3:44 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

or if he changes planes in Minneapolis
Nothing beats first hand experience ~ grover @('.')@

by monkeyball on Aug 29, 2007 4:18 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

WELL.....
....statistically speaking that has to wrong.  Not that there is anything wrong with that.

by Mabster on Aug 29, 2007 4:44 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

does he have a "wide stance" in the "box" too?
content with contenderless, i guess

by ak_A on Aug 29, 2007 7:36 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

It makes total sense

And, more importantly, would make me feel better about what's happening.

My question would be if we have examples of this happening before.  I know we are not the first team with a pitcher coming back late in the year that could help a contender, but I can't remember any strange deals like this that added up when you looked back 6 months later.

(of course, I have trouble remembering where I put the car keys this morning, so my memorization of all baseball acquisitions is probably suffering as well...)

by 5Aces on Aug 29, 2007 3:01 PM PDT   0 recs

As much as we'd like LaRoche

or Kemp or Loney or Hu, we're not getting any of them.  While your scenario sounds nice, it's far more likely that the A's merely were cutting costs (hopefully for A-Rod, like Nico I have my dreams I hold onto desperately).

I would say that if 25 teams passed on claiming E-Lo, there's little chance we could get much.  

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton

by vignette17 on Aug 29, 2007 3:03 PM PDT   0 recs

Finally

a realist raises her head. Say it again... 25 teams passed on Loaiza! and his injury history is well-known. He's been around for quite awhile. We won't get significant talent for him. Just be grateful that 7 mill has been freed up to pursue some offense for next year.

by IM4Oakgal on Aug 29, 2007 3:20 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Do you believe that non-contending teams are

looking for guys like Loiaza or maybe just the few that are needing pitching for a playoff run?  I think the "25 teams passed on him" argument is flawed when there really aren't that many teams looking right now.

"He thinks the lady doth protest too much." -Larry David (or Shakespeare)

by ohtobe21likehuston on Aug 29, 2007 3:22 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

How often is a losing team building the

following year's roster with a veteran who is not in their long-term plans?  You know that doesn't happen unless you're Pittsburgh.  The "25 teams" theory is ridiculous IMO only because #1 not all of the supposed contenders need pitching and #2 non-contending teams are looking to trade guys like Loiaza away for younger prospects.

"He thinks the lady doth protest too much." -Larry David (or Shakespeare)

by ohtobe21likehuston on Aug 29, 2007 4:03 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

The Braves?

Their rotation right now is Hudson, Smoltz and hope the offense puts up crooked numbers.

On Sunday, Minaya ticked off a list of candidates to join the rotation, and for once this season, none of them was Jose Lima.

by rfloh on Aug 29, 2007 11:26 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Every contender in the American League passed ...

and semi-contenders in the NL, like the Braves, Cubs, Cards, Brewers and Rockies passed.

Only Arizona, San Diego, NYM and the Phillies did not get a shot at him.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Aug 29, 2007 5:02 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

True

I just don't get why.

Atlanta desperately needs another starter. Why would they not take an average guy at below-market wages?

It makes very little sense to me. This whole thing makes very little sense to me. If he's still so obviously hurt that tons of contenders needing pitching (Seattle? Helloooo, Bavasi?) took a pass on him, then 1. how is he putting up good numbers, and 2. why doesn't LA know about it?

by PaulThomas on Aug 29, 2007 5:09 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I'm not saying he was a hot commodity. I'm only

saying that "25 teams" didn't pass on him because the majority weren't looking in the first place.

"He thinks the lady doth protest too much." -Larry David (or Shakespeare)

by ohtobe21likehuston on Aug 29, 2007 5:17 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Is this legal according to MLBPA? It seems

unethical to make a move like this without official paperwork already involved.  If there is an actual contract then it seems very unethical not to divulge this information right now.

I really could care less whether the rules are broken but I hope you and SuSlu are right.  

"He thinks the lady doth protest too much." -Larry David (or Shakespeare)

by ohtobe21likehuston on Aug 29, 2007 3:18 PM PDT   0 recs

If they signed a contract, it's absolutely illegal
This is strictly a "on the down low" proposition. It's like teams resting players in the NHL before the playoffs-- technically illegal, but there's really nothing the league can do about it.

by PaulThomas on Aug 29, 2007 4:01 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I would assume it has to be turned into

the MLB office and I'm just wondering why it wouldn't be publicly reported at that time?  I really hope they get something for Loiaza or my faith in BB will be severely tested.

"He thinks the lady doth protest too much." -Larry David (or Shakespeare)

by ohtobe21likehuston on Aug 29, 2007 4:12 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

You don't seem to understand

Beane: "I'll give you Loaiza, but I want LaRoche."
Colletti: "Hm, LaRoche is on the 40-man roster."
Beane: "Oh yeah. Hm, what could we do about it?"
Colletti: "Well, you could let me claim him off waivers. On a completely unrelated topic, Craig Italiano's scar is sexy."
Beane: "Yes. Yes it is."

There's no actual agreement, just an understanding. Italiano for LaRoche gets done in the offseason, both teams blather aimlessly about the deals as if they were separate issues, and no one can ever prove that Loaiza was actually traded for LaRoche. I have no doubt that this kind of wink-wink-nudge-nudge deal goes on all the time, although there's no guarantee it's what's going on in this specific case.

by PaulThomas on Aug 29, 2007 4:22 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

"On the down-low"?

So I guess Beane and Coletti signaled their intentions by tapping their feet and then rubbing them together?

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Aug 29, 2007 4:32 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Beane:

"You know, Ned, Crosby has a very wide stance."

by mikeA on Aug 29, 2007 4:40 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Crosby also taps his toes
Nothing beats first hand experience ~ grover @('.')@

by monkeyball on Aug 29, 2007 4:44 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

As long as

Coletti wasent tapping his foot from a stall in the mens room, while Beane is washing his hands....

"I Will Not Relent, I Am Driven"... Clutch
Bring Back The Bash!!!

by Shippee33 on Aug 29, 2007 6:52 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I just wonder why this is a diary.

Shame on you, Nico.

Stat Wonk Futurist

by salb918 on Aug 29, 2007 3:27 PM PDT   0 recs

loaiza

ain't getting us someone like laroche unless blanton/barton or someone with real value is the guy who goes to the dodgers in the offseason.

by Backspin on Aug 29, 2007 3:46 PM PDT   0 recs

That makes no sense Nico

According to two different websites a team has a 6 month window to complete a trade involving a PTBNL. The Dodgers claimed Loaiza off of waivers, they did not trade for him. There would be no need to do all this shuffling if the Dodgers were willing to trade Hu or LaRoche for Loaiza, they could have simply used the PTBNL tag and shipped LaRoche over at Christmas.

Yep. Warm and fuzzy... that's me.

by grover on Aug 29, 2007 3:48 PM PDT   0 recs

Depends...

do the 40-man roster rules of August apply at the time the trade is made or when the it's finalized?  In other words, if they made the trade for a PTBNL now, does that mean 4 months from now, he'd still have to have cleared waivers for the deal to be made.  Or does it mean that he doesn't need to clear waivers because it's finalized in December?  There may very well be rules that restrict this sort of deal for this reason.

In search of a new signature. Say something funny and you may see your comment here!

by DMOAS on Aug 29, 2007 3:52 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Seems to me that he's saying its more unnofficial

An agreement was made behind closed doors  which enabled them to skip using the PTBNL tag, which makes the deal subject to league rules.

I just can't help but think there is more to this than meets the eye...

by GusanoQuemador on Aug 29, 2007 4:11 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

NIco, take off your Green-n-Gold tinted glasses

  The only person who mentioned the "T" word was Loaiza himself. But since he doesn't read AN even he doesn't know that he was waived and technically the Dodgers owe us nothing. Ned Colletti didn't spend his time in SF and now LA praising Billy as a genius. This move is purely pragmatic.

   Loiaza is playing for a contract extension for a team that has the pockets to pay him. His time in Oakland was only beneficial if this team was making a playoff run. His release today may actually be a statement about what Beane thinks about next year's chances for this team. Will we be competitive? Probably. But can we hang where Angels fly? Not without a wing and a prayer.

"I've been accused of using too many words...I suppose that's like accusing Mozart of using too many notes." Bill King

by Gerard on Aug 29, 2007 4:18 PM PDT   0 recs

No "Secret" Deal

I think the deal is what it is. However, it keeps the relationship between Dodgers/Coletti and A's/Beane viable. They both know they can do business. Neither is dealing with a GM who has to run to ownership to approve a deal. The door stays open, calls get returned.

by NoeValley on Aug 29, 2007 4:21 PM PDT   0 recs

Well Susan Slusser seems to think the same thing,

and she is a lot closer than any of us. So it could be possible.

Though the A's wind up with nothing out of the deal, they will save $7 million on Loaiza next year - and they have the goodwill of the playoff-chasing Dodgers for not pulling Loaiza back. Don't be surprised to see the A's make some sort of favorable deal with LA in the next few months, unless letting Loaiza go is reward in itself for Oakland. Loaiza had pitched very well in his two starts this season, but he fought injuries much of his two seasons in Oakland. He missed the first four and a half months of this season with a bulging disk in his neck and then a knee injury.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/...

by theblackpearl on Aug 29, 2007 4:31 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

And by favorable...

we're looking at a Cust for cash sort of thing instead of a non-prospect for elite prospect sort of thing.  Which is kind of sad b/c way too often teams in the race will over pay for a pitcher as bad as Loaiza (see Nathan/Bonser/Lirino for crap and simliar moves for Heathcliff to the M's and most of the White Sox trades).

In search of a new signature. Say something funny and you may see your comment here!

by DMOAS on Aug 29, 2007 4:36 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

she also reads AN

... so it could be a closed feedback loop.

Nothing beats first hand experience ~ grover @('.')@

by monkeyball on Aug 29, 2007 4:43 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I thought she just read AN the way Urban does,

i.e. go straight to the search function and type in "Urban."

(Just kidding, if you're reading this. But maybe not if my joke was right, and you're just reading this because you did a search for "Urban.")

by mikeA on Aug 29, 2007 4:48 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

lol
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Aug 29, 2007 4:59 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

She read my Oaklandtown diary

and emailed me to tell me she loved it.  So if you read a report about Wolff's nefarious water rights deals, the closed feedback loop will be proven.

For God's sake, the government should take pity on us and move these monkeys away

by FreeSeatUpgrade on Aug 29, 2007 6:18 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Glad to hear that

She's great (a "gem" even), and it's nice to hear she has good taste.

by mikeA on Aug 29, 2007 6:24 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

good thing you didn't call her a "piece"
Nothing beats first hand experience ~ grover @('.')@

by monkeyball on Aug 29, 2007 8:29 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

that's pretty cool

I, on the other hand, hated it: Oaklandtown was a TOTAL rip-off of The Two Jakes.

'I have a theory about Randy Bell, but it betrays such an abject lack of faith in humanity that I cannot voice it.' ~FSU

by LAXile on Aug 29, 2007 7:14 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Oaklandtown sequel: The Two JoKe's(or JaKe's)

It could be about Joe Kennedy or Jason Kendall, or both.

"Just because the horseradish is a cultivar of different color and geographic origin doesn't make it less of either." - monkeyball

by McFood on Aug 30, 2007 10:38 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Then she really does have an eye for talent.

Gonna take her job?

"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer

by alox on Aug 29, 2007 7:16 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Just as long as Beane doesn't sign Joe Smith

for over-the-cap $$.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Aug 29, 2007 4:33 PM PDT   0 recs

I just listened to Forst

try to explain the "deal" (man, was it ever -- especially for LA) on Buan's show ... he sounded a lot like that chick in the Miss Teen USA pageant ..."Well, huh, yes ... such as .. South Africa .... "
We gave away a starter for free, is what it comes down to ... gave away Bradley for free (basically), gave away Kendall for free (basically) ...
Helluva job this year Billy -- helluva job.

VacaAsFan

by Vacafan on Aug 29, 2007 5:01 PM PDT   0 recs

But the entire training, conditioning,

and medical staff? Untouched.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 29, 2007 5:11 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

remember your comment about free Giants tickets?
Nothing beats first hand experience ~ grover @('.')@

by monkeyball on Aug 29, 2007 5:15 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Would YOU want to touch them?
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Aug 29, 2007 6:02 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Um, eeewwww.

<showers>

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 29, 2007 6:19 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

here's a theory

Perhaps Beane is about to hand day-to-day operations management to Forst -- but Forst has said that he'll only accept on the condition that Beane clear the decks of the lousy contracts which Forst didn't want in the first place (I'm totally speculating on that: I have no knowledge of Forst's involvement in any of the A's personnel decisions).

Beane sees that doing so will help improve the team's bottom line in the short run, and possibly enable medium-to-long-term on-field competitiveness, so he agrees to Forst's condition.

Nothing beats first hand experience ~ grover @('.')@

by monkeyball on Aug 29, 2007 5:14 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

That's an odd theory...

but it gives rise to this comment:

Beane is mostly a great GM because he decided to commit to empiricism/objectivity. That said, it's not clear that he's actually that good at player evaluation, so I don't think we'd really lose anything if Forst were to take over.

by mikeA on Aug 29, 2007 5:22 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

But how "objectivity-based" is it

to DFA and waive everyone who pisses you off?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 29, 2007 5:26 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I think you have the causality reversed

Their suckitude induces both the pissiness and the DFA'ing.

by PaulThomas on Aug 29, 2007 5:31 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Well
  1. I don't like this move, I and really didn't like the Milton Bradley move.
  1. I don't think either move is best explained by Beane getting pissed off.
  1. To the extent that that does explain it, it just reinforces my point that Beane may not be the best guy to carry out the commitment to objectivity that he initiated.

by mikeA on Aug 29, 2007 5:34 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

True moneyballism has never been implemented!

Lenin Alderson merely took the first revolutionary step, which Stalin Beane first expanded, then perverted and betrayed.

(I guess in this theory, my Fuson advocacy would make me a Menshevik Trotskyite.)

Nothing beats first hand experience ~ grover @('.')@

by monkeyball on Aug 29, 2007 5:39 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

So Forst...

will end up banging his shoe on a table at the Winter Meetings?

(After rubbing it up against Coletti's shoe, of course).

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Aug 29, 2007 5:58 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

20 years hence, when Byrnes is the A's GM ...

... Giants GM Thomas Jane (who played a ballplayer on the screen) will deliver a speech wherein he implores, "Mr Byrnes, jump through this wall!"

Nothing beats first hand experience ~ grover @('.')@

by monkeyball on Aug 29, 2007 6:01 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I hope you mean Josh, not Eric
"Ten times thy self were better than ten Hattebergs" -- Monkeyball, channeling Shakespeare

by iglew on Aug 29, 2007 9:48 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

You’re really sweet, but no. I’m Tom
He's not going to try to kill you, I'm just going to try to doink you. -Rex Hudler

by JediLeroy on Aug 30, 2007 8:05 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

re #2, I don't either

I was being 85% tongue in check. Not 100%, mind you, but a solid 85.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 29, 2007 5:51 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I don't necessarily buy my own theory

But, yes, I agree that we likely wouldn't lose anything with Forst.

Personally, my greatest hope (despite Beane's comments about keeping budget streams in their channels) is that they'll take Loaiza's money and use it to lure Fuson back.

Nothing beats first hand experience ~ grover @('.')@

by monkeyball on Aug 29, 2007 5:35 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

That would be nice

Spending money towards getting and developing pre-ML players seems like the best avenue to throw money at. I don't think Fuson really wants his old job back though.

Also, on a pessimistic note, I think scouting can be very valuable, but I don't think there's a reliable way to determine who is a good scout/scouting director if you're committed to getting the best.

by mikeA on Aug 29, 2007 5:44 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

that makes sense

if you ignore the fact that beane already had a long term deal and still signed an extension this year.

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Aug 29, 2007 5:24 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

except that ...

... his LT contract doesn't limit him to being GM, and his stake in the ownership group and his own comments indicate he'll likely move himself upstairs into a more generalized executive position.

Nothing beats first hand experience ~ grover @('.')@

by monkeyball on Aug 29, 2007 5:33 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

That part of your theory is OK

(although I don't think it will happen anytime soon.) But the Forst-making-demands part is p=.0001.

by mikeA on Aug 29, 2007 5:37 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

highly significant?

Even I don't think it's that.

Nothing beats first hand experience ~ grover @('.')@

by monkeyball on Aug 29, 2007 5:41 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Note to self:

Don't use terminology you don't understand.

by mikeA on Aug 29, 2007 5:49 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Omigod, I know!!!

Like when my English teacher says something like "gerund," and I'm like, "As if that's even a word!"

-Cindi

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 29, 2007 5:54 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Gerund? Isn't he the A's, like, coach?
Nothing beats first hand experience ~ grover @('.')@

by monkeyball on Aug 29, 2007 6:01 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

fire gerund now
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Aug 30, 2007 8:39 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

next time
i'll have to read all the responses before replying to a comment...
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Aug 30, 2007 8:41 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I'm innumerate enough that it was a good risk
Nothing beats first hand experience ~ grover @('.')@

by monkeyball on Aug 29, 2007 6:03 PM PDT to parent up