A Loaiza Scenario To Consider
Let's say that if they're going to acquire Loaiza, the Dodgers say they need him now, not just next season. But they couldn't acquire him before the July 31st deadline because his health was still too uncertain. And let's say the A's and Dodgers agreed on a package deal (for Loiaza and another A's player/prospect) that would land the A's a player we'd really like them to acquire--such as Andy LaRoche--but who is too good to clear waivers.
An off-season trade doesn't serve the Dodgers' needs as well because they need Loaiza now. And a deal for a prospect not on the 40-man roster doesn't serve the A's as well because they want more than that for an affordably priced, middle-of-the-rotation starter . So Loiaza is sent to the Dodgers now, and in the off-season another A's player/prospect is sent to the Dodgers for LaRoche (or whomever).
All needs are served. Doesn't this make sense, more than Beane giving away a valuable trade chip without getting a player in return--when clearly he could deal Loiaza, and his salary, to any number of 29 teams in the off-season and get some talent in return?
0 recs |
141 comments
Comments
yes
it does make sense
so I guess we'll see if LaRoche, Kemp, Loney or someone comes from the Dodgers for a bag of peanuts
by closetasfan on Aug 29, 2007 2:50 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
hate replying to myself
but then, wouldn't they have just said Loaiza for PTBNL? Maybe he did just give him away, which would be odd
by closetasfan on Aug 29, 2007 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The PTBNL cannot be a major leaguer
so that particular avenue is, unfortunately, not available in this case. LaRoche has played in the majors (this year, even).
by PaulThomas on Aug 29, 2007 3:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's incorrect
The PTBNL can be a major league player as long as he changes leagues.
by grover on Aug 29, 2007 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
or if he changes planes in Minneapolis
by monkeyball on Aug 29, 2007 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well Mike Piazza says there aren't any gay major
leaugers.
by theblackpearl on Aug 29, 2007 4:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
does he have a "wide stance" in the "box" too?
by ak_A on Aug 29, 2007 7:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It makes total sense
And, more importantly, would make me feel better about what's happening.
My question would be if we have examples of this happening before. I know we are not the first team with a pitcher coming back late in the year that could help a contender, but I can't remember any strange deals like this that added up when you looked back 6 months later.
(of course, I have trouble remembering where I put the car keys this morning, so my memorization of all baseball acquisitions is probably suffering as well...)
by 5Aces on Aug 29, 2007 3:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
As much as we'd like LaRoche
or Kemp or Loney or Hu, we're not getting any of them. While your scenario sounds nice, it's far more likely that the A's merely were cutting costs (hopefully for A-Rod, like Nico I have my dreams I hold onto desperately).
I would say that if 25 teams passed on claiming E-Lo, there's little chance we could get much.
by vignette17 on Aug 29, 2007 3:03 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Finally
a realist raises her head. Say it again... 25 teams passed on Loaiza! and his injury history is well-known. He's been around for quite awhile. We won't get significant talent for him. Just be grateful that 7 mill has been freed up to pursue some offense for next year.
by IM4Oakgal on Aug 29, 2007 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do you believe that non-contending teams are
looking for guys like Loiaza or maybe just the few that are needing pitching for a playoff run? I think the "25 teams passed on him" argument is flawed when there really aren't that many teams looking right now.
by ohtobe21likehuston on Aug 29, 2007 3:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If a team picks him up they also have him
for next year too.
by IM4Oakgal on Aug 29, 2007 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How often is a losing team building the
following year's roster with a veteran who is not in their long-term plans? You know that doesn't happen unless you're Pittsburgh. The "25 teams" theory is ridiculous IMO only because #1 not all of the supposed contenders need pitching and #2 non-contending teams are looking to trade guys like Loiaza away for younger prospects.
by ohtobe21likehuston on Aug 29, 2007 4:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Braves?
Their rotation right now is Hudson, Smoltz and hope the offense puts up crooked numbers.
by rfloh on Aug 29, 2007 11:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Every contender in the American League passed ...
and semi-contenders in the NL, like the Braves, Cubs, Cards, Brewers and Rockies passed.
Only Arizona, San Diego, NYM and the Phillies did not get a shot at him.
by devo on Aug 29, 2007 5:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
True
I just don't get why.
Atlanta desperately needs another starter. Why would they not take an average guy at below-market wages?
It makes very little sense to me. This whole thing makes very little sense to me. If he's still so obviously hurt that tons of contenders needing pitching (Seattle? Helloooo, Bavasi?) took a pass on him, then 1. how is he putting up good numbers, and 2. why doesn't LA know about it?
by PaulThomas on Aug 29, 2007 5:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not saying he was a hot commodity. I'm only
saying that "25 teams" didn't pass on him because the majority weren't looking in the first place.
by ohtobe21likehuston on Aug 29, 2007 5:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is this legal according to MLBPA? It seems
unethical to make a move like this without official paperwork already involved. If there is an actual contract then it seems very unethical not to divulge this information right now.
I really could care less whether the rules are broken but I hope you and SuSlu are right.
by ohtobe21likehuston on Aug 29, 2007 3:18 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
If they signed a contract, it's absolutely illegal
by PaulThomas on Aug 29, 2007 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would assume it has to be turned into
the MLB office and I'm just wondering why it wouldn't be publicly reported at that time? I really hope they get something for Loiaza or my faith in BB will be severely tested.
by ohtobe21likehuston on Aug 29, 2007 4:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You don't seem to understand
Beane: "I'll give you Loaiza, but I want LaRoche."
Colletti: "Hm, LaRoche is on the 40-man roster."
Beane: "Oh yeah. Hm, what could we do about it?"
Colletti: "Well, you could let me claim him off waivers. On a completely unrelated topic, Craig Italiano's scar is sexy."
Beane: "Yes. Yes it is."
There's no actual agreement, just an understanding. Italiano for LaRoche gets done in the offseason, both teams blather aimlessly about the deals as if they were separate issues, and no one can ever prove that Loaiza was actually traded for LaRoche. I have no doubt that this kind of wink-wink-nudge-nudge deal goes on all the time, although there's no guarantee it's what's going on in this specific case.
by PaulThomas on Aug 29, 2007 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
"On the down-low"?
So I guess Beane and Coletti signaled their intentions by tapping their feet and then rubbing them together?
by Nick on Aug 29, 2007 4:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Beane:
"You know, Ned, Crosby has a very wide stance."
by mikeA on Aug 29, 2007 4:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Crosby also taps his toes
by monkeyball on Aug 29, 2007 4:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
As long as
Coletti wasent tapping his foot from a stall in the mens room, while Beane is washing his hands....
by Shippee33 on Aug 29, 2007 6:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just wonder why this is a diary.
Shame on you, Nico.
by salb918 on Aug 29, 2007 3:27 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
loaiza
ain't getting us someone like laroche unless blanton/barton or someone with real value is the guy who goes to the dodgers in the offseason.
by Backspin on Aug 29, 2007 3:46 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
That makes no sense Nico
According to two different websites a team has a 6 month window to complete a trade involving a PTBNL. The Dodgers claimed Loaiza off of waivers, they did not trade for him. There would be no need to do all this shuffling if the Dodgers were willing to trade Hu or LaRoche for Loaiza, they could have simply used the PTBNL tag and shipped LaRoche over at Christmas.
by grover on Aug 29, 2007 3:48 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Depends...
do the 40-man roster rules of August apply at the time the trade is made or when the it's finalized? In other words, if they made the trade for a PTBNL now, does that mean 4 months from now, he'd still have to have cleared waivers for the deal to be made. Or does it mean that he doesn't need to clear waivers because it's finalized in December? There may very well be rules that restrict this sort of deal for this reason.
by DMOAS on Aug 29, 2007 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seems to me that he's saying its more unnofficial
An agreement was made behind closed doors which enabled them to skip using the PTBNL tag, which makes the deal subject to league rules.
I just can't help but think there is more to this than meets the eye...
by GusanoQuemador on Aug 29, 2007 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
NIco, take off your Green-n-Gold tinted glasses
The only person who mentioned the "T" word was Loaiza himself. But since he doesn't read AN even he doesn't know that he was waived and technically the Dodgers owe us nothing. Ned Colletti didn't spend his time in SF and now LA praising Billy as a genius. This move is purely pragmatic.
Loiaza is playing for a contract extension for a team that has the pockets to pay him. His time in Oakland was only beneficial if this team was making a playoff run. His release today may actually be a statement about what Beane thinks about next year's chances for this team. Will we be competitive? Probably. But can we hang where Angels fly? Not without a wing and a prayer.
by Gerard on Aug 29, 2007 4:18 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
No "Secret" Deal
I think the deal is what it is. However, it keeps the relationship between Dodgers/Coletti and A's/Beane viable. They both know they can do business. Neither is dealing with a GM who has to run to ownership to approve a deal. The door stays open, calls get returned.
by NoeValley on Aug 29, 2007 4:21 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Well Susan Slusser seems to think the same thing,
and she is a lot closer than any of us. So it could be possible.
Though the A's wind up with nothing out of the deal, they will save $7 million on Loaiza next year - and they have the goodwill of the playoff-chasing Dodgers for not pulling Loaiza back. Don't be surprised to see the A's make some sort of favorable deal with LA in the next few months, unless letting Loaiza go is reward in itself for Oakland. Loaiza had pitched very well in his two starts this season, but he fought injuries much of his two seasons in Oakland. He missed the first four and a half months of this season with a bulging disk in his neck and then a knee injury.
by theblackpearl on Aug 29, 2007 4:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And by favorable...
we're looking at a Cust for cash sort of thing instead of a non-prospect for elite prospect sort of thing. Which is kind of sad b/c way too often teams in the race will over pay for a pitcher as bad as Loaiza (see Nathan/Bonser/Lirino for crap and simliar moves for Heathcliff to the M's and most of the White Sox trades).
by DMOAS on Aug 29, 2007 4:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
she also reads AN
... so it could be a closed feedback loop.
by monkeyball on Aug 29, 2007 4:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought you guys ran her off when you trashed
Urban.
by theblackpearl on Aug 29, 2007 4:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought she just read AN the way Urban does,
i.e. go straight to the search function and type in "Urban."
(Just kidding, if you're reading this. But maybe not if my joke was right, and you're just reading this because you did a search for "Urban.")
by mikeA on Aug 29, 2007 4:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
She read my Oaklandtown diary
and emailed me to tell me she loved it. So if you read a report about Wolff's nefarious water rights deals, the closed feedback loop will be proven.
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Aug 29, 2007 6:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Glad to hear that
She's great (a "gem" even), and it's nice to hear she has good taste.
by mikeA on Aug 29, 2007 6:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
good thing you didn't call her a "piece"
by monkeyball on Aug 29, 2007 8:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's pretty cool
I, on the other hand, hated it: Oaklandtown was a TOTAL rip-off of The Two Jakes.
by LAXile on Aug 29, 2007 7:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oaklandtown sequel: The Two JoKe's(or JaKe's)
It could be about Joe Kennedy or Jason Kendall, or both.
by McFood on Aug 30, 2007 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Then she really does have an eye for talent.
Gonna take her job?
by alox on Aug 29, 2007 7:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just as long as Beane doesn't sign Joe Smith
for over-the-cap $$.
by Nick on Aug 29, 2007 4:33 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I just listened to Forst
try to explain the "deal" (man, was it ever -- especially for LA) on Buan's show ... he sounded a lot like that chick in the Miss Teen USA pageant ..."Well, huh, yes ... such as .. South Africa .... "
We gave away a starter for free, is what it comes down to ... gave away Bradley for free (basically), gave away Kendall for free (basically) ...
Helluva job this year Billy -- helluva job.
by Vacafan on Aug 29, 2007 5:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
But the entire training, conditioning,
and medical staff? Untouched.
by Nico on Aug 29, 2007 5:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
remember your comment about free Giants tickets?
by monkeyball on Aug 29, 2007 5:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Would YOU want to touch them?
by Nick on Aug 29, 2007 6:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Um, eeewwww.
<showers>
by Nico on Aug 29, 2007 6:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
here's a theory
Perhaps Beane is about to hand day-to-day operations management to Forst -- but Forst has said that he'll only accept on the condition that Beane clear the decks of the lousy contracts which Forst didn't want in the first place (I'm totally speculating on that: I have no knowledge of Forst's involvement in any of the A's personnel decisions).
Beane sees that doing so will help improve the team's bottom line in the short run, and possibly enable medium-to-long-term on-field competitiveness, so he agrees to Forst's condition.
by monkeyball on Aug 29, 2007 5:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's an odd theory...
but it gives rise to this comment:
Beane is mostly a great GM because he decided to commit to empiricism/objectivity. That said, it's not clear that he's actually that good at player evaluation, so I don't think we'd really lose anything if Forst were to take over.
by mikeA on Aug 29, 2007 5:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But how "objectivity-based" is it
to DFA and waive everyone who pisses you off?
by Nico on Aug 29, 2007 5:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you have the causality reversed
Their suckitude induces both the pissiness and the DFA'ing.
by PaulThomas on Aug 29, 2007 5:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well
- I don't like this move, I and really didn't like the Milton Bradley move.
- I don't think either move is best explained by Beane getting pissed off.
- To the extent that that does explain it, it just reinforces my point that Beane may not be the best guy to carry out the commitment to objectivity that he initiated.
by mikeA on Aug 29, 2007 5:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
True moneyballism has never been implemented!
Lenin Alderson merely took the first revolutionary step, which Stalin Beane first expanded, then perverted and betrayed.
(I guess in this theory, my Fuson advocacy would make me a Menshevik Trotskyite.)
by monkeyball on Aug 29, 2007 5:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So Forst...
will end up banging his shoe on a table at the Winter Meetings?
(After rubbing it up against Coletti's shoe, of course).
by Nick on Aug 29, 2007 5:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
20 years hence, when Byrnes is the A's GM ...
... Giants GM Thomas Jane (who played a ballplayer on the screen) will deliver a speech wherein he implores, "Mr Byrnes, jump through this wall!"
by monkeyball on Aug 29, 2007 6:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hope you mean Josh, not Eric
by iglew on Aug 29, 2007 9:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You’re really sweet, but no. I’m Tom
by JediLeroy on Aug 30, 2007 8:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
re #2, I don't either
I was being 85% tongue in check. Not 100%, mind you, but a solid 85.
by Nico on Aug 29, 2007 5:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't necessarily buy my own theory
But, yes, I agree that we likely wouldn't lose anything with Forst.
Personally, my greatest hope (despite Beane's comments about keeping budget streams in their channels) is that they'll take Loaiza's money and use it to lure Fuson back.
by monkeyball on Aug 29, 2007 5:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That would be nice
Spending money towards getting and developing pre-ML players seems like the best avenue to throw money at. I don't think Fuson really wants his old job back though.
Also, on a pessimistic note, I think scouting can be very valuable, but I don't think there's a reliable way to determine who is a good scout/scouting director if you're committed to getting the best.
by mikeA on Aug 29, 2007 5:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
that makes sense
if you ignore the fact that beane already had a long term deal and still signed an extension this year.
by xbhaskarx on Aug 29, 2007 5:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
except that ...
... his LT contract doesn't limit him to being GM, and his stake in the ownership group and his own comments indicate he'll likely move himself upstairs into a more generalized executive position.
by monkeyball on Aug 29, 2007 5:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That part of your theory is OK
(although I don't think it will happen anytime soon.) But the Forst-making-demands part is p=.0001.
by mikeA on Aug 29, 2007 5:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
highly significant?
Even I don't think it's that.
by monkeyball on Aug 29, 2007 5:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Note to self:
Don't use terminology you don't understand.
by mikeA on Aug 29, 2007 5:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Omigod, I know!!!
Like when my English teacher says something like "gerund," and I'm like, "As if that's even a word!"
-Cindi
by Nico on Aug 29, 2007 5:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gerund? Isn't he the A's, like, coach?
by monkeyball on Aug 29, 2007 6:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
fire gerund now
by xbhaskarx on Aug 30, 2007 8:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm innumerate enough that it was a good risk
by monkeyball on Aug 29, 2007 6:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Now there's a thought
Maybe Beane is really pissed off at himself and is going to trade himself to the soccer team for nothing.
by Nick on Aug 29, 2007 6:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
At least get Youkilis!
by Nico on Aug 29, 2007 6:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
the Elephants in Oakland blogger
suggested as much at the beginning of the 2007 season
by OaklandSi on Aug 29, 2007 7:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That dude is not a reliable source....
He is smart, but he would be/has been banned for craziness over here.
by mikeA on Aug 29, 2007 7:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know him
(do you?), but anyway, I brought that up because he suggested back in April that Forst might be taking over day to day GM operations...which some here are now speculating on
by OaklandSi on Aug 29, 2007 7:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I Hope You're Right, Nico
Does that mean the Tim Hudson deal to Atlanta isn't complete either?
More likely, Lew, Billy and Forst realize the A's probably won't compete next year and wanted to dump $8 million in salary.
Maybe I'm showing my age, but remember when salary dumps resulted in solid prospects going to the dumpee. (See Marlins, Florida or Twins, Minnesota.)
I really thought Loaiza could be decent next year and bring back a prospect or two in a trade over the winter or pre-trade deadline. Sure he's old and unreliable, but his arm is well rested and the guy's got some talent. He will EASILY be worth $7 million next year to a team that is gunning for a playoff spot and needs a third or fourth starter.
by Eck on Aug 29, 2007 5:29 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Look at how close teams like
Milwaukee, Atlanta, and Seattle are to playoff spots, and look at who they're running out there (Claudio Vargas, Chuck James, Horacio Ramirez) and tell me Loaiza has no value. I'm one of ELo biggest critics and even I concede he has some value to a contender with enough hitting but not enough pitching.
by Nico on Aug 29, 2007 5:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And yet they didn't claim him on waivers
Something very strange is going on here.
by PaulThomas on Aug 29, 2007 6:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Especially odd since Beane's asking price
apparently was "nothing".
by Nico on Aug 29, 2007 6:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought it was a DTBNL-
a "deal to be named later" and the other GM's are now cussing out BB and Colletti. They made this deal only because they both hate Milton Bradley ;-)
by ohtobe21likehuston on Aug 29, 2007 6:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Milton Bradley:
"I'm not a divider; I'm a uniter!"
by Nico on Aug 29, 2007 6:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The strangeness you mention...
I have read that it's commonplace for teams to clear the move with other teams before putting specific players on waivers, with the intent of getting them to a specific team. I'd be much happier if that's true, because it lends some credence to the theory I don't currently believe concerning a second deal.
by jeepers on Aug 29, 2007 8:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm thinking about the proposed Blanton trade
to the Dodgers that fell through because the A's wanted more than what the Dodgers were offering. I believe they were supposedly offering three players (almost ready prospects, or ??, don't remember now).
So perhaps -- if there is an agreement in place somewhat as Nico describes -- the A's settle for something of what the Dodgers offer, not all, but some part, since Blanton is cheaper and younger? If so, I certainly wouldn't expect one of the highly desired prospects for Loaiza (unless someone else is also Dodgers bound after the season ends).
by OaklandSi on Aug 29, 2007 6:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
As I said somewhere (forget where)
it wouldn't surprise me if Harden's auditioning for a trade to L.A. for Andy LaRoche down the stretch. Said trade being, of course, the quid pro quo for Loaiza.
by PaulThomas on Aug 29, 2007 6:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Loaiza and Harden going one way,
LaRoche and Hu the other? I could live with that...Though I suspect the A's don't even want Hu because his plate disicpline isn't good enough.
by Nico on Aug 29, 2007 6:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Harden and Crosby
for LaRoche and another prospect?
I know I'm dreaming...
by OaklandSi on Aug 29, 2007 6:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly. Maybe when Blanton
for LaRoche, Hu...fell through, they discussed Loaiza and X for another prospect, Y, whom the A's want, but who is on the Dodgers' 40-man roster. Perhaps a trade of X for Y will occur later, maybe even with other parts potentially added in further discussions after the season.
by Nico on Aug 29, 2007 6:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Could Loaiza
be included as part of a trade back to the A's over the offseason?
That would sure be weird.
by Nick on Aug 29, 2007 6:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And we could give them "waivers,"
and it would be a totally even trade!
by Nico on Aug 29, 2007 6:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Christ.
Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. We got rid of Loaiza's contract.
by salb918 on Aug 29, 2007 6:40 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Yep. I still don't like it but you are correct.
I would think that we could "give away" Chavez, Crosby and maybe Kotsay too, although the last one might be difficult. If we are truly rebuilding than I am more than okay with that so maybe things will become clearer in the coming months.
< waits for a Monica Lewinsky reference from Monkeyball >
by ohtobe21likehuston on Aug 29, 2007 6:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If we could have given away Kotsay,
who costs the same amount, why wouldn't we have done that instead?
by Nico on Aug 29, 2007 6:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Patience. Kotsay has to be able to walk
before someone decides to run him out there for their team.
by ohtobe21likehuston on Aug 29, 2007 6:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't have that kind of time
:-(
by Nico on Aug 29, 2007 6:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kotsay's contract is worse
because Beane might actually get something in return for Loaiza
by OaklandSi on Aug 29, 2007 7:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought we had been permanently disabused of
that notion around 1998.
by mikeA on Aug 29, 2007 6:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's what the black helicopters
told you to say, isn't it?
by jubjub on Aug 30, 2007 6:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The theory sounds too elaborate
Why go through all that cloak and dagger stuff and just say they're trading Loaiza for a Player to be Named Later and be done with it? Otherwise, the whole thing would look very fishy, and for no reason.
I don't like the whole thing. Loaiza does have value right now to any contending team that needs a veteran starter. He's injury-prone, but is healthy at the moment. So Beane just dumps his salary? I never thought the A's would get a lot for him, but nothing?
I am accustomed to thinking that Beane is very shrewd, and that the A's always have a plan to try to win, even if some aspects of it don't work out.
Until further notice, my current operating theory is that the A's will try to operate on the cheap until the new stadium is on the horizon. If they catch lightning in a bottle and win, that's just a happy accident. But it's not the goal.
This is Steve Schott all over again.
by bear88 on Aug 29, 2007 7:23 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think you miss how waivers work
25 other teams didn't want him. SD, AZ, NY, PH we don't know about. Once he was claimed, Beane and Coletti tried to work something out. At the end of it, Beane felt it was not worth it to hold onto Loaiza (if he pulled him back from waivers that's the end of it) so he let him go.
by Dusty Baker on Aug 29, 2007 8:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think I get it
There is nothing preventing the A's from pulling Loaiza off the waiver wire, as they did with Shannon Stewart, and letting him start the rest of the season.
Then, Beane could have traded him in the offseason if he didn't like the Dodgers' offer of nothing. A veteran starter, who's pretty decent when healthy, should fetch something, even if it's not two high-ceiling Dodger prospects.
The fact that he didn't means this is a salary dump, barring some sort of elaborate scenerio that Nico outlined.
by bear88 on Aug 29, 2007 10:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think that's right on the money
about the pre-Fremont plan, anyway. Wolff has a vision that never entered Schott's dull narrow construct, so I wouldn't invoke that spectre.
But think of it this way. For ownership, why should the A's spend to contend in '08 and '09? MLB revenue is off the charts, and this is an extremely lucrative window to pocket profits. $20-30 million in operating profit per year for 07-09 is definitely within reach. They obviously don't hope to bring more than a third or so of the current fanbase with them to the new digs (see: wanton alienation campaign, late '05 to present). And, the thinking goes, the desirable segment of the current fans are going to come to a new park with a contending team in 2011 even if the A's suck for a few years first.
This dovetails nicely, whether by plan or happenstance, with the fact that the current roster really needs some rebuilding. So I suspect Beane's been given the nod to rebuild (and cut payroll and boost the profits in which he himself shares) for a couple years.
The really amusing part is that this is giving Billy license to indulge his raging yang, telling Bradley and Kennedy and Loaiza to go to hell, like he's wanted to do all along, because he doesn't need to get value back, he just needs to shuck payroll. Indulging his capricious temper is just the icing, not the cake.
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Aug 29, 2007 8:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nail=head.
The A's can recoup most of their initial investment (ca. $125M) in the ballpark before they even sell a ticket.
by jeepers on Aug 29, 2007 8:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's more to it
Whatever loans the A's finance will require repayment shortly after the loan is granted. It'll probably be an interest-only type of payment until the ballpark and housing open with their new revenue streams. The payments probably won't surpass $25 million total for the three intervening years.
They'll want to keep a slush fund for cost overruns and if they're truly interested in a radio station or cable sports network there'll be money to invest there too.
FWIW I don't think the A's revenue sharing receipt will be more than $12-15 million each year from now through 2010. Payroll should stay at ~$60 million.
by vertig0 on Aug 29, 2007 10:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Payroll for this year was $73 million
which kind of explodes that theory.
by PaulThomas on Aug 30, 2007 12:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
unless it drops quite a bit for 2008
by OaklandSi on Aug 30, 2007 1:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bingo
If they start to see 10-15% drops in attendance in the next few seasons it'll give them every excuse to cut payroll. Not to Florida fire sale levels, but something they can feel comfortable with. $60 million is about right though it could be more. If there were more fast track position player prospects in the chain I figure they'd cut even deeper.
by vertig0 on Aug 30, 2007 8:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This argument makes no sense
Why would they ever have increased it in the first place? The A's have already established that hiring expensive star players does not ipso facto increase attendance-- they actually have to win before attendance goes up.
And why would attendance declines cause them to cut payroll? That's like responding to an economic downturn by raising taxes. The A's are not business idiots; I'm sure they're aware of this.
by PaulThomas on Aug 30, 2007 9:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's quite simple
If their local revenues drop, they're not going to sustain the higher payrolls seen the last couple of seasons. They're sticking to an informal salary cap that dictates payroll be no more than 55% of revenue. Recent payroll raises have had more to do with national revenue spikes than local ones and there are no new national revenue spikes or contract renewals on the horizon. At best you'll see payroll plateau at $80 million for the next three years. At worst it'll drop down to $60 million.
by vertig0 on Aug 30, 2007 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You lost me at Kennedy
Getting Kennedy out at no price was the best BB move of the year!
by MobiusKlein on Aug 29, 2007 10:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The only caveat to the whole thing
is that I still think Billy is making moves both for now AND later. His ego is way too big to let go of trying to put a really good team together for next season. However, while he's made moves for the present while keeping an eye on the future before, maybe now it's more the other way around.
Also, I know I don't know enough about the business part of baseball to feel confident about saying this, but wouldn't it make the front office even MORE money if they were to really try to put together a winning team in 2008? At least in terms of fan support (especially those who will only go to A's games when they're in the hunt, in the playoffs, or in a pretty new stadium), ticket sales and media attention? This isn't Major League where attendance has to cease to exist so we can move the team to Fremont, is it?
I'm not trying to be sarcastic or antagonizing, it just really doesn't make sense to me that they would throw away the next few seasons, when they can't necessarily guarantee that they'll be competitive after the rebuilding plan is executed, especially with their budget. I'm not suggesting the A's don't need to make big changes to the team, I'm just not sure one has to do so much with the other.
by AintEasyBeinGreen on Aug 30, 2007 1:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I understand your point, but...
I don't think it makes sense to throw away the next few seasons, and I don't think they have any reason or need to drive down attendance in advance of the Fremont move.
All I can assess is what is happening, not Billy Beane's reputation or history of success. And while there's nothing wrong with dumping an overpaid, older player if you think cheaper, younger players can do the job just as well, and have a future with the team, I do expect management to get something in return. They got nothing.
The only real argument for dumping Loaiza is that he is such an injury risk that you couldn't get someone to take his contract in the offseason, that he'd get hurt between now and the end of the year.
I never thought the A's could get as much as some had hoped for Loaiza. But he did have value to a contender this year, and probably next year. His price tag isn't excessive, and he's a pretty decent starter who can get real hot. The only negative, of course, is his recent injury history.
It's increasingly clear that Beane does not believe the A's, as currently constituted, will contend anytime soon. That's a reasonable conclusion. But if that's the case, then the team needs to restock the farm system, not just give guys away.
In the meantime, Beane isn't giving me much reason to go to the ballpark.
by bear88 on Aug 30, 2007 8:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess I don't disagree with you
Getting rid of the older, big contract players that are in no way a part of the future with the A's is definitely a sign of rebuilding, but I don't necessarily think any of these dumping type moves have made us worse for next year.
I refuse to give up hope on 2008. Not yet.
by AintEasyBeinGreen on Aug 30, 2007 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You won't
That's the problem.
OK, if the A's don't trade with LA for 20 years, I suppose we could infer that there was no deal.
by PaulThomas on Aug 29, 2007 9:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The ballpark,
or a hit with a runner in scoring position?
by Nico on Aug 29, 2007 9:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Crosby hitting .300
by grover on Aug 30, 2007 12:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
crosby can totally hit .300
give him a tee ball bat and see what happens.
by guy incognito on Aug 30, 2007 6:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
doubtful
The only way Crosby can get to 300 is if he Netflixes it.
by monkeyball on Aug 30, 2007 9:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
snark
he definitely stands to learn something from King Leonidis
by rubin sierra on Aug 30, 2007 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
to not get anything
seems preposterous. i mean, loiaza's not great, but he's a very effective #3 starter, especially in the inferior NL. his injuries aren't chronic. he makes a very reasonable salary for a pitcher of his caliber (see: contract for gil meche). in terms of other teams passing him up, there's the threat of pulling him back from waivers. it does seem to be a method to ensure a guy goes where you want him to go, so long as its not somebody who the competition feels will destroy their chances at winning. i really hope we get a nice deal from LA in the offseason. because to not get at least one decent prospect for a solid MLB pitcher in this era of insane overpaying for pitching is absurd, even if the move saves us some money.
by guy incognito on Aug 30, 2007 6:35 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
how is he a "very effective #3 "
when he's only had 2 seasons since 1998 (9 years) with an ERA under 4.50? That's not a #3 for a winning ballclub.
by jubjub on Aug 30, 2007 7:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because he is right now
Loaiza's history is checkered, which was one of my reasons for concern when the A's signed him.
But contending teams are thinking of how Loaiza will perform for them for the rest of this season, not in future years. That's why I think he had value, not as much as some hoped, but more than nothing.
I think Loaiza is a smart pickup for a team like the Dodgers.
by bear88 on Aug 30, 2007 8:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly, bear88, and the salary dump
argument doesn't make sense to me--if you trade him this off-season, with 29 teams to talk to (and someone WOULD want a reasonably-priced innings eater for the middle of their rotation), you have dumped almost all of his salary (save for Sept. 2007, which is negligible in comparison).
The A's preferred to get nothing now and save his 9/07 salary, instead of get something in the off-season and still save his 2008-09 salary? I just refuse to believe the A's are that dumb. Though it looks like it at the moment. Unless Loaiza is arrested this weekend.
by Nico on Aug 30, 2007 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
try to be objective
Loaiza's bio:
old - check
injured this year - check (leg injury -> often leads to arm injuries)
injured last year - check
velocity issues - check
career inconsistency - check
The A's got rid of a drag on their payroll and did it without having to pay a dime of his contract next year. To get a prospect in return, he would have to be worth more than the $7MM he's going to make next year plus his buyout. I honestly don't know how people can look at his record (he was horrible last year and injured all this year) and conclude that he was worth more than $7MM a year, so that by acquiring him for that price, another team would be willing to give up something of value.
I think people have confused Loaiza's potential value from his expected value.
by jubjub on Aug 30, 2007 5:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
By your "logic" the Dodgers
wouldn't have claimed Loaiza. The fact is, adding Loaiza would improve many rotations (BECAUSE HE REPLACES THEIR #5 STARTER). He's better than Chuck James. He's better than Horacio Ramirez. He's better than Manny Parra.
I can't believe I'm defending a guy I never wanted the A's to sign and have never liked. But I don't think people have "confused Loaiza's potential value from his expected value." I think people understand that pitchers as old, as recently-injured, and as inconsistent as Loaiza get valued at a heck of lot more than nothing--especially at times of year like this.
Just look at what Meche, Pavano, Jaret Wright, and Chan Ho Park can get teams to offer. And to find out why, look at what teams are running out there - guys a lot worse than Esteban Loaiza.
by Nico on Aug 30, 2007 6:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Key point
"I think people understand that pitchers as old, as recently-injured, and as inconsistent as Loaiza get valued at a heck of lot more than nothing--especially at times of year like this. "
He isn't valued at nothing. He's getting paid $7MM next year plus his buyout. To get a prospect in return he has to be worth MORE than what he's getting paid (or we would have had to pay some of his salary). Is $7MM a bargain for a veteran in this league? Maybe, but I don't think $7MM is a bargain for a guy who has a significant chance of being injured next year and has put up the kind of numbers he has. All the big contracts in the offseason went to guys with at least some potential. Loaiza has a lot of potential things that could happen to him, and they're all bad.
But, I do appreciate that you're able hold an argument and take a position defending the release of someone you never wanted in the first place.
by jubjub on Aug 30, 2007 6:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
First of all, sorry if my reply was snarky--
I really dislike and resent someone saying "try to be objective". It's very patronizing, IMO.
What I believe increases Loaiza's value is the immediacy of a team's need. That's why teams routinely overpay (in talent) at the trade deadline: They see a chance to get into the playoffs and they have a need, now.
Loaiza, by replacing the #5 starter on Atlanta, or Milwaukee, or Seattle, or LAD, or STL, gives that team a better chance to win a playoff spot in a very competitive race. That's worth something that Loaiza isn't worth as your basic $6.5 million, inconsistent-veteran-innings-eater in 2008.
And not all of Loaiza's potential outcomes are bad. He has been a far better pitcher since he added the cutter, he was "lights out" after the ASB in 2006 (his last time pitching), and has since been injured with problems that have no particular likelihood of resurfacing in 2008.
by Nico on Aug 30, 2007 6:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
4.01 ERA is lights out?
That was his ERA post-ASB last year. I agree that he was good for a five-start stretch in August/September (see his game log here), but over his next five starts his ERA was 6.20 (granted inflated by an 8-run game). I'd take a 4.01 ERA over a whole season from my #4 starter and be happy with it. But, if that's best case scenario, I don't want to know what the expected case scenario is.
And your comment about teams overpaying for talent at this time of year is spot-on. That's exactly why we found someone willing to take him off our hands.
Anyways, the deal is done. We now just have to live with it.
by jubjub on Aug 30, 2007 7:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And yet
if he was worth it to Seattle, or Atlanta, or Milwaukee-- why didn't they claim him? Shit, if THEY get hit with his full salary, there's nothing to stop them from turning around and re-dealing him in the offseason. To some other team needing a back-end starter.
It just makes no sense to me that Loaiza would be valued as low as he evidently was by the market that counts-- major league GMs.
As I've said 9731256032046 times previously, nothing about this "situation" makes the slightest bit of sense to me.
by PaulThomas on Aug 30, 2007 11:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This Doesn't Make Any Sense to Me
This just sounds like fans trying to hope for the best. Nothing wrong with that, but I don't see any merit to this theory.
The Dodgers can't just send a PTBNL, right? There would already have to be an official (read: not under the table) agreement to do so, and that wasn't done.
Also, if there was an under the table agreement, who's to say it has to stick? If Loaiza struggles, the Dodgers could claim injury and then call anything off. Or they could just say that no deal was involved.
Bad business? Maybe. But so is "trading" someone away because someone else gave you their word.
You should have already learned from making that same mistake once before, Billy.
by black beane and rice on Aug 30, 2007 9:29 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
change in GM
What if the Dodgers change GMs in the off season?
by Larry E on Aug 30, 2007 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have to agree with this
Let me make this clear: I've been trying to find some way in which this deal made sense on any level. As strategy, I already think it's terrible. It makes the team look like a joke. And it robs it of talent without any kind of commensurate return-- no draft picks, nothing.
I'm willing to change my mind on this-- if the money gets put to good use, if ELo shows hurt in the remainder of the season, or if some post facto acceptable deal turns up. But if none of these happens it will go down as the single dumbest move of Beane's entire tenure here.
by PaulThomas on Aug 30, 2007 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
esteban should have gone to the phils
if he really wanted a ring
by notah8er on Aug 30, 2007 2:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs






















