Day 1 Draft Review

by chavyfan on Jun 7, 2007 10:55 PM PDT Comment 18 comments

My overview of the first day of the draft.

As day 1 of the draft has now come to a close, I would like to offer my thoughts on some of the players we selected, hoping that you will share yours with me.

Our first pick went to college RHP James Simmons. A control pitcher, he doesn't project well for his fastball, but I can still conceivably see him throwing it at 90-93 consistently. His change is supposedly his best pitch, possibly his out pitch, but I would rather see him continue working on his slider and curve to bring them up to par. I would also like to see him add a split-finger to his repoitare, which I believe could make him eventually become a solid #2 in a rotation. My biggest problem with Simmons is I believe it will take him about 3-4 years in the minors to become MLB ready, but as we have all learned: never doubt Billy.

Our first sandwich pick went to Sean Doolittle, a two way player who most believe will be an infielder in the pros. However, I could see the team moving him to pitcher as a 6'3" LHP with a projectable mid 90's fastball once he devotes all of his practicing into pitching. If they do choose to leave him as a fielder, he doesn't really have the power people tend to like from a corner infielder or outfielder, but I think he could develop into a good middle infielder, probably a 2B.

Gregory Desme scares me. he is pretty projectable, but he can't hit breaking pitches. If he can't overcome that hurdle, he is going to be a career minor leaguer. On the flipside, if he does get a handle on hitting breaking pitches, he could wind up being the best bat we took in the draft, as he has good plate vision and can make adjustments at the plate.

I'm not going to go into much depth in Joshua Horton. I think he will become the player we all fall in love with. He is, in essence, Marco Scutaro, the ultimate utility guy. But as we all learned from Antonio Perez, there is nothing wrong with having a guy on the team like this.

Now for the guy I am most excited about. Samuel Demel is a reliever with 3 pitches who has a major competitive drive and a nice dislike for hitters. He has a mid 90's fastball with movement, a good changeup with a slight downward drop as an out pitch, and a slider that shows promise, I think he will be the first to make it to the majors, and become the set-up man for years to come. Closer, if street can't stay healthy.

All in all, I would have liked the A's to pick a few more players with a higher ceiling, but as I previously stated: I trust Billy above all.

Poll

Which prospect are you most excited about?

Travis Banwart, RHP

3 votes

Gary Carignan, RHP

7 votes

James Simmons, RHP

19 votes

Sean Doolittle, 1B

19 votes

Corey Brown, RF

54 votes

Gregory Desme, RF

21 votes

Joshua Horton, SS

5 votes

Samuel Demel, RHP

13 votes

141 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

if Sean Doolittle is lefthanded

he's not going to play any other infield position but first base.

I'm a little curious as to why he wouldn't be projected as a pitcher if he has mid-90's fastball potential. I'm also curious that the A's would draft another lefty hitting first baseman with little projected power. So it may be that the A's see Doolittle a bit differently than the more general scouting projections, either as a pitcher or as a first baseman with power.

by OaklandSi on Jun 8, 2007 7:04 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Doolittle

The UVA home park is very spacious. I think we would all agree that Ryan Zimmerman adequate power in the big leagues.

Ryan had 6HR / 18-2B his junior year.
Ryan had 1HR / 16-2B his sophomore year.

Doug had 4HR / 15-2B his junior year.
Doug had 11HR / 12-2B his sophomore year.

His Doolittle and Zimmerman each have equivalent power, then we could have a better version of Connor Jackson.

by echerrst on Jun 8, 2007 8:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's three years

away from being considered for the major leagues. I'm not sure why they would shy away from a first baseman with developing power (a la Buck, only not an outfielder). There's no guarantee DJ will still be around three years from now, or if he is, that he won't begin seeing double again.

by IndianaAsfan on Jun 8, 2007 8:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Barton in the mix

I think OaklandSi was also taking into account Barton in the 1B depth chart and his similarities (good contact, plate discipline, questionable power) with Doolittle. Doolittle seems to duplicate Barton's skill set, other than the fact that he is regarded as a plus defender. The case could be that the front office was looking for the best hitter available, and will sort out the logjam after Doolittle progresses a bit in the minors and accumulates some trade value.

by Qwerty75 on Jun 9, 2007 2:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Simmons' timetable

He was rated the 3rd ranking prospect coming out of the draft closest to the majors to Price and someone else by BA. I think we could see him in AA next year, and ready for the majors in 2+ years. Think Joe Blanton with this, as well as his big-league upside.

by Qwerty75 on Jun 8, 2007 9:29 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I have to like the players that the A's have

selected so far... They were not the ones that I necessarily believe everyone wanted them to select, but they show a lot of promise for the future once they are analyzed. They were rated in most cases higher than where they were selected, thus appearing to give us better potential than we might have anticipated. And certainly the minor league system needs a big boost in potential. Good job so far. Hope the rest of the draft goes as well...

Charlie Brown GO A'S WIN

by Charlie Brown on Jun 8, 2007 9:40 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

but as we have all learned: never doubt Billy.

Unless, of course, your name is Cliff Pennington, Bradley Sullivan, Brian Snyder, John McCurdy, Jeremy Brown, or Danny Putnam. Then you have to be wondering whats up.

Again guys, I'm not saying Billy is bad, I'm not saying he isn't great, but he most certainly isn't infallible. He makes bad draft choices like everyone else. Simmons, in my opinion, was an overdraft and a bad pick. Unless he adds to his fastball, he doesn't have the breaking stuff to ever do anything more than top out as a AAAA guy.

And yes, I know it's just my opinion, and that I'm neither a major league scout nor a major league general manager, etc. etc. etc.

RagingHarden: Yeah if you get 20 starts out of me I'll be shocked. Like, I'll wreck my drawers.

by walk off bunt on Jun 8, 2007 12:09 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Money-Penny is playing pretty well this year

and so far has improved every month of the season. He was injured last year. Injuries happen.

The draft is a hit and miss affair. But Billy Beane hits more often than most. It's like hitting a baseball -- the best players fail 70% of the time.

So lets look into this. 2002 was a pretty famous draft -- and a lot of folks like to point to its failures -- Jeremy Brown and John McCurdy, for instance.

The team had the 16th, 24th, 26th, 30th, 35th, 37th and 39th picks in the draft.

Based on Rany Jazayerli's research, we could expect that 47% of our first/sup picks would make the majors (based on averaging the historical rate at which picks at each draft position made the majors). Of those 7 picks, 4 have made the majors, a 57% mark.

Of course, we're interested in much more than whether or not players make the majors, as Jeremy Brown is included in that 57%.

Rany's data shows that average picks at these 7 positions would total 63 WARP Wins in their first 15 years after being drafted. Keep in mind that these guys were drafted almost exactly 5 years ago, so we're only 1/3 of the way through this period -- and we're missing what is likely to be the most productive part of this period.

But lets see what we have at this point.
Swisher has 12.6 Wins
Blanton has 12.3 (not including 2007)
Teahen has 9.1
Brown has 0.1
for a total of 34.1

Blanton has probably accumulated a little over 2.5 WARP so far this year, leaving the quartet at 35.5 WARP a mere 1/3 of the way through the studied period. If they continue this pace (and I think it's fair to expect that they will improve it, given that they have only been in the majors for half of that period), they'll accumulate 106.5 WARP, considerably more than they would have been expected to.

That's pretty good.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jun 8, 2007 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

yep

and Brown was a bargin gambit, not a real pick. Does it matter? Of course it matters, maybe now in the Wolfe era there will be a little flexibility to sign a guy like a Smoak, or this year a Gary Brown.

Also, look at the guys selected in 2002 after Matt Cain through the end of the second round:

John McCurdy, Sergio Santos, Greg Miller, Luke Hagerty, Matt Whitney, Dan Meyer, Jeremy Brown, Chadd Blasko, Stephen Obenchain, Matthew Clanton, Mark Teahen, Mark Schramek, Micah Schilling, Blair Johnson, Jason Pridie, Joey Votto, Corey Shafer, Darrell Rasner, Adam Donachie, Joshua Murray, Brent Clevlen, Micah Owings, Zachary Hammes, Robert Andino, Kevin Jepsen, William Johnson, David Bush, Brian Dopirak, Jon Lester Zachary Segovia, Jeremy Reed, Jonathan Broxton, Jesse Crain, Justin Jones, Brian Slocum, Brian McCann, James Greene, Fred Lewis, Steve Stanley, Chris Snyder, Joshua Womack, Mitchell Talbot, Brandon Weeden

You've got Broxton and McCann as studs, Lester and Votto as still on track prospects, a few guys like Teahan, Crain, Rasner, Bush and Chris Snyder as useful or better pieces, a few faded prospects, a few good org soldiers, and a ton of dross.

My point? After the two picks the A's did well with (Swisher and Blanton), it's not as if everybody else was seeing and grabbing diamonds in the slots the A's drafted. And neither is it surprising that the Braves, Dodgers, and Twins found some good players in here. Those teams are very good at scouting and development.

by jakarta on Jun 8, 2007 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Um, Jon Lester

is still a pretty good prospect for Boston, and we hope Dan Meyer is still a decent prospect.
I'm not sure you can limit yourself to just the second round though. Curtis Granderson went in the third round to Detroit, and I think we'd rather have him than Brown. So from that perspective Brown wasn't just a bargain gambit, and was most definitely a real pick.

by IndianaAsfan on Jun 8, 2007 9:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If every single team in the majors ...

had a chance at Granderson and took a lesser player -- I think it's fair to say that the Tigers were more lucky than good in snaring him.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jun 8, 2007 9:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I never said the Tigers were good

I said the A's would have been better off taking Granderson than Jeremy Brown. Are you disputing that? Further, I never said EVERY team in the majors took a lesser player. There were players mentioned in the post that I don't quibble with. My problem is taking Jeremy Brown, a player almost universally disliked instead of a five tool player. Granderson's only knock in college was that he went to a northern school in a low to mid-level conference. The scouts who saw him, however, were in agreement that he was a five tool player. My point was that the pick of Brown can't just be dismissed as a "gamble gone bad" or a "good try." There were viable players available with far greater upside than Jeremy Brown that the A's lost out on because of that pick. If the A's really wanted Brown he would have still been available far later in the draft.
So, also using your logic, the A's were more lucky than good in taking Harden?

by IndianaAsfan on Jun 8, 2007 9:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Absolutely ...

the A's were definitely more lucky than good in taking Harden ... Huddy too. Billy Beane would say the exact same thing (and has).

Of course I'm not saying we'd rather have Brown than Granderson, knowing what we know now. But we didn't know what we know now, neither did anyone else -- that's why he was available for the Tigers in the third round.

I'm not dismissing the Brown pick as anything. He was a low upside guy, who was easily signable that would have a very good chance at making the majors relatively quickly and 'contributing' in at least an Adam Melhuse sort of way, though with some upside. The pick hasn't gone wrong. He's been more or less everything we hoped he would be. He's made the majors and he's ready to step in again, if injuries should hit and if Zooks needs an Adam Melhuse in a year or two, Jeremy Brown is ready to step in and fill the role. Was it a great pick? No, but it wasn't a terrible one either.

But like I said, the only sensible way to evaluate a team's draft success is as a total body, not by looking at specific picks.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jun 8, 2007 11:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agree on the total body evaluation

but to call the Brown pick reasonable is to bury your head in the sand. The guy was a wasted pick. If you actually think he'll contribute in any way that's absurd. He's already been passed in the organization by at least two catchers, and has been DFA'd once already. Oh, and while he did get called up once it was to basically sit and watch. The A's would rather have their DH back up catch than call up Brown. That's how much they think of him. I realize Brown was signable, but that doesn't really mean anything to me. Granderson was just as signable and a better athlete. My point here is that during that draft Beane and DePodesta went out of their way to draft guys the traditional scouts didn't like. I just happen to think that's a wrong approach. I also get tired of the Billy is a draft expert line of thinking that goes on sometimes in AN. He's better than average, I'll agree. But he's made just as many mistakes, or more, than other GM's around the league, Brown being a glaring example of this. He would have been available in rounds 10-15, and would have been even more signable. That would have been a pick that turned out nicely. But there is still great talent available in rounds 3-7, and you can't just start taking flyers that early in the draft. As an example, Cleveland took a kid in round 40 this year - Dallas Cawiezell. The kid is 6'6" and 250, and is a RHP. He's only had three years of pitching instruction and has tremendous upside. Round 40 was a great place to take him. If Cleveland works with him, they could have a dominant reliever on their hands. If he doesn't pan out, they haven't given up a chance on taking a polished player.
The reason I pick on Brown is that your point that Detroit got lucky isn't entirely accurate if you understand how the draft works and the way teams order prospective players. The A's were the only team to value Brown that highly. I'd have to say, on Brown only, the rest of the league has been proven correct. The Tigers valued Granderson very highly - I've spoken with the Tigers scout responsible for the Great Lakes area. He just couldn't get the Tigers to take him in the first round. But he was in their top 5, so to say they were "lucky" is a bit of a misnomer. Yes they were lucky that nobody else took him, but he's turned out to be exactly what they expected. In that sense there's no "luck" about it.

by IndianaAsfan on Jun 9, 2007 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here's what Jim Callis of BA had to say

Riverside righthander Justin Simmons (first round) doesn't light up radar guns, but he can really pitch. He just might be the best righty college starter in this draft.

It's not a good year for college position players, but the A's got four of the best in Virginia first basemanlefty Sean Doolittle (supplemental first round), Oklahoma State outfielder Corey Brown (supplemental first round), Cal Poly outfielder Grant Desme (second round) and North Carolina shortstop Josh Horton (second round).

Texas Christian righty Sam Demel will be in the Oakland bullpen quickly and was a steal in third round. Polished Wichita State righty Travis Banwart was another good value in the fourth round.

by branch rickey on Jun 8, 2007 1:44 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Two Tarheels, huzzah!

Ironic, given that former Carolina and Oakland star Walt Weiss was there on draft day. I don't know squat about prospects, including Horton adn CArignan, but any addition of Carolina blue to the green and gold mix is cool with me.

BTW, the Heels are on TV today and tomorrow in their CWS super-regional matchups against South Carolina.

Watt Funk Staturist

by FreeSeatUpgrade on Jun 8, 2007 2:06 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Wish I could've gone to a game...

...but they sold out Boshamer Stadium fast.

by FormerHuntsvilleStar on Jun 8, 2007 6:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Day 2

Rendered some interesting high ceiling prospects.

Gary Brown, a HS CF was considered the fastest player in the draft class by many, and also has a great reaction to the ball. While his hitting needs some work, he is young enough to spend a few years in the minors to get good and polished, possibly becoming our future CF and lead-off batter.

Raymond Rodriguez is a young RF from Puerto Rico and can also take time to develop in the minor leagues, but I don't see him hitting for a lot of power right now, especially with his hitting mechanics.

Seth Blair, a HS RHP has good velocity and a lot of movement on his pitches, he just seems to struggle finding the strikezone. I can see him developping into a really good righty specialist out of the bullpen, with his sidearm delivery.

And our final pick of the draft, Stephen Hagans, was a HS 3B. He has good arm strength, a hole in his mit and ankle weights. While he isn't pretty in the field and is about as fast as Mike Piazza, he has a lot of power and a pretty swing. His biggest downfall is his power, though, because his swing often loops in an attempt to hit a homerun. He might have the highest ceiling of all the players we drafted in terms of power, it will just take a while for him to polish up.

by chavyfan on Jun 8, 2007 11:23 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs