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2007 Predictions

I'm back online and officially writing this from deep in the heart of Halo country.  Although the funny thing is I moved in on Saturday morning and been out and about several times around my home and I haven't seen one Angels cap.  I've seen three people wearing Dodgers caps and tee shirts, but I still haven't encountered the Halo fan in its natural habitat.  Good thing because I've been sporting my A's tees all weekend.

Weird things happened while I was away.  Esteban Loaiza is starting the season on the DL instead of trying to pitch through an injury like he did last year (to horrific results).  The A's weren't ready to take a ride on Marty McFly's Delorean and released Erubiel Durazo.  And somewhere, Ricardo Rincon got the shakes when he found out that Todd Walker was about to make his return to the Coliseum.  Oh and a couple of other things happened as well as Chad Gaudin got stretched out to replace Loaiza in the rotation (guess Billy Beane meant what he said in the interview with AN about loving Gaudin's stuff).  I like the move because the A's will be able to see what they have in Gaudin as a starter just in case Kennedy stumbles, the A's have a backup now waiting in the wings when Loaiza gets healthy.  And finally, Travis Buck is doing his best Andre Ethier impression coming out of camp with the team.  It just goes back to something my Dad once told me, "No matter how hard people will try, they won't be able to hold a good man down.  So be a good man."  Buck was nothing short of spectacular this spring.  We'll see if he can keep it up starting today.

I figured this would be a good time to just spin the crystal ball and try and come up with predicitions for the season.  2007 is upon us and I was lucky enough last year to correctly predict the World Series champion (for pretty much the first time in my life).  Yep, I picked the St. Louis Cardinals to take it all in 2006.  Course I predicted they would do so over the Boston Red Sox, so I was wrong on that one.  I also suggested that the Astros were another team I liked a lot last season and they nearly knocked the Cards out of the playoffs with a late season surge.

This year?  I usually base my picks on pitching.  Who has a lot of good pitching and who doesn't?  I'm a firm believer in pitching being the most important factor in determining a winner, especially come playoff time.  That being said, the teams I think have the best chance going into this season are, the Tigers, Angels, Red Sox, Dodgers, Twins (especially if they decide to go with younger arms in their system and dump the Ponsons and Ortizes of the world) and I like the Diamondbacks as my surprise team this year.  The Marlins could be a darkhorse as well.  Here is how I see the divisions shaking out:

NL East

  1. Mets
  1.  Marlins:  I do think the Marlins could be a big surprise this year.  They have great young starting pitching and a young lineup that has some spectacular young players.  They might not be household names, but they might be very, very soon.
  1.  Phillies
  1.  Braves
  1.  Nationals

NL Central

  1.  Brewers:  This is my upset special.  I think the Brewers have some great young starting pitching prospects and they also have an up and coming starting lineup.  I like the Cards, but I think the Brewers are ready to take that next step.
  1.  Cardinals
  1.  Cubs
  1.  Astros
  1.  Reds
  1.  Pirates

NL West

  1.  Dodgers
  1.  Diamondbacks (Wild Card):  This is my surprise pick this year.  I think getting out of New York will reinvigorate him and together with Webb, they will form one of the best one-two punches in the NL.
  1.  Rockies
  1.  Padres
  1.  Giants

American League

AL East

  1.  Red Sox:  I've got to give the Red Sox the edge mostly because of their rotation.  The Yankees have the better lineup, but I'll take the better pitching for the division title.
  1.  Yankees
  1.  Blue Jays
  1.  Orioles
  1. Devil Rays

AL Central

  1.  Tigers:  Everyone seems to think that this division will be a dogfight, but I just don't see it.  The Tigers have an amazing starting rotation, a flamethrowing bullpen and added Gary Sheffield to improve the lineup.
  1.  Indians:  The lineup is killer and the rotation is just good enough to hold off the rest of the division.
  1.  Twins:  If the Twins went with their young pitchers instead of the retreads, I might like them to challenge for the division title, but throwing Ortiz and Ponson out there seems to be foolish to me.
  1.  White Sox
  1.  Royals

AL West

  1.  Angels:  I hate this team, but you can't argue against pitching and this team has it in great supply.
  1.  A's:  I'm truly befuddled by this team.  I honestly believe it can finish anywhere from first to last.  Last year I was confident that the A's were going to wind up winning the division going away.  This year, the injuries are already cropping up, but at least there is some excitement over having Buck in the lineup.  As long as Harden stays healthy, I think the A's remain competitive.  If not, both the Rangers and Mariners could surpass the A's this year.
  1.  Rangers:  I like the addition of Brandon McCarthy and Catalanotto.  But Kenny Lofton and Sammy Sosa?  Yikes.
  1.  Mariners:  Will Felix take the title of King this year or will be another year off?  And will Ichiro's situation become a distraction?  One thing is for sure, I'm betting the A's don't win 17 of 19 from this team again this year.

Ultimately, I see the Dodgers facing off against the Tigers in the Fall Classic.  I think the Tigers take that next step.  I mean, how many times do you think Polanco will grimace his way on board this year only to get doubled home by the wild, violent Sheffield bat.  You can't beat Verlander, Bonderman, Robertson and old man Rogers.

With all that being said, the games happen on the field and who knows what 2007 holds?  Play ball!

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Devo's picks

freshly copied from Foolsh's diary ...

AL West
3-way tie: A's, Rangers, Halos * (see below)
Mariners

AL Central
Cleveland
Detroit
Minnesota
Chicago
Kansas City

AL East
Boston
Yanks (WC)
Tampa
Toronto
Baltimore

NL West
D-Backs
Rockies
Padres
Dodgers
Giants

NL Central
Cubbies
Cards
Brewers
Reds
Astros
Pirates

NL East
Mets
Phillies (WC)
Marlins - I agree, but the Phillies are a darn good team
Braves
Nats

MVP
AL - Hafner
NL - Pujols

ROY
AL - Dice K (even though he's not a rookie)
NL - Chris Young

Cy Young
AL - Santana
NL - Sheets

(*) As far as the AL West, Bud Selig's head explodes after having to make a decision of importance without any opportunity for scapegoating or responding in such a way that no one is offended and no problem is actually solved.

After a brief period of euphoria, the three teams meet to discuss how the problem should be sorted out. The meeting got off to a good start, with a three game round robin tournament proposed to be held in Seattle. Excellent progress was being made until John Lackey mouthed something to Jason Kendall (no one else saw it). Kendall jumped over the table and began choking Lackey. A fight breaks out between the A's and the Angels, while Ron Washingtoon keeps his cool and sneaks the Rangers out the back door.

49 suspensions are handed out, with John Lackey being sentanced to time already served, as his hearing cannot commence until he recovers from his comma and the play-in games are deemded forfit with the Rangers the beneficiaries, thanks to Washingtons cool, calculated in game management.

Seriously, I predict each of the three teams will win 87 +/- 2 games, the division winner will probably be the team that stays healthiest. I think the Rangers have the best chance of staying healthy, so there ya go.

by devo on Apr 2, 2007 11:17 AM PDT   0 recs

John Lackey in a comma?!?!?
There's no crying in baseball!

by gigglingone on Apr 2, 2007 11:42 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

so Blez, no AL wild card?
"The future's like, who cares?" ~Eric Chavez

by rebus on Apr 2, 2007 11:31 AM PDT   0 recs

The Gambler

Isn't Kenny Rogers out for 3 months w/ a Blood Clot?  I think that might hurt the Tigers chances a little bit, no?

AL WEST (all that matters to me):

A's        89-63
Angels     87-65
Rangers    83-79
Mariners   78-84

by Colorado Fan on Apr 2, 2007 11:38 AM PDT   0 recs

I Was Thinking the Same Thing ..

.. Previously, in one of the earlier diary entries discussing picks -- I picked Detroit to win it all, just as Blez is picking them.  But the AL-Central is very tough, and losing Rogers for such a long-time may affect the Tigers' chances.  Sure, they might get him back in the second half, but last year they were a first-half team -- they won based on the very fast first-half; they faded quite a bit in the second-half.  So I don't know about them.  Many are picking the Indians to win the Central, but I am still unconvinced about their pitching, particularly, have they overcome the bullpen woes that made them a sub-.500 team last year?  We shall soon see, time will tell ..

.. the Athletics may be small-market but they have BIG-heart! ..

by Randy Bell on Apr 2, 2007 11:50 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

They may not win the division

But I don't know how anyone could think the A's could finish last. Way too much talent on that roster to finish behind both the Rangers and M's. You're right to say pitching wins ballgames. But you seem to over look the fact the A's have one of the best bullpens in baseball.

by sactownbull on Apr 2, 2007 11:41 AM PDT   0 recs

I like the A's Offense too ..

.. I am optimistic this team scores more runs this year .. last year was a "down year" for the offense, and for injuries ..

.. the Athletics may be small-market but they have BIG-heart! ..

by Randy Bell on Apr 2, 2007 11:45 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

ChiSox 4th?

But I thought Ozzie the Genius was going to fix their offensive woes from last year by "manufacturing" more runs and by starting Podsednik and Erstad at the top of their order.

"Incidentally, this sort of helps confirm my belief that Mark Kotsay is the perfect "average" player." - FJM

by doctorK on Apr 2, 2007 11:41 AM PDT   0 recs

Good picks...

I essentially use the same rationale (pitching, pitching, pitching).

NL East: Mets, Phillies, Braves, Marlins, Nationals.  I'm not that sold on the Marlins yet -- maybe in '08.

NL Central: Brewers, Cardinals (wild card), Astros, Cubs, Reds, Pirates.  Peter Gammons also has the Brewers winning this division (which is good), as does Steve Phillips (which is bad).

NL West: Dodgers, Padres, Diamondbacks, Giants, Rockies.  It's L.A. and everyone else.

By the way, you have the Marlins as the big surprise, the Brewers as the upset special and the Diamondbacks as the surprise pick.  That's a lot of special surprises! :)

AL East: Red Sox, Yankees (wild card), Blue Jays, Orioles, Devil Rays.  Some of the reasoning I've heard for picking the Yankees is that they'll swing a deal for another arm.  I think they'll need more than one deal, and they won't be able to do it.  They'll whip up on their lesser East counterparts to take the wild card, though.

AL Central: Tigers, Indians, White Sox, Twins, Royals.  And I really hated to put the Twins fourth.  You can pretty much jumble second through fourth, but it's still Detroit's rotation and lineup keeping them in first.

AL West: Angels, Athletics, Rangers, Mariners.  Ditto.

Playoffs are insane to predict at this time, but if I had to...I'll say Dodgers over Tigers -- just to be a little different. :)

by FormerHuntsvilleStar on Apr 2, 2007 11:57 AM PDT   0 recs

Pitching Dominates but you pick the Mets?
.. the Athletics may be small-market but they have BIG-heart! ..

by Randy Bell on Apr 2, 2007 12:10 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

In that division...

I wouldn't say "dominating" in that division compared to the Phillies and Braves, but yes, the Mets.

Who ya got?

by FormerHuntsvilleStar on Apr 2, 2007 12:41 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Phillies
.. the Athletics may be small-market but they have BIG-heart! ..

by Randy Bell on Apr 2, 2007 12:45 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

The Braves pitching overall is better then the

Mets and the Phillies.

"Very nice day in the Oakland A... Oakland A's? What's this stadium called again?" Nick Swisher on TWIB.

by larrysgurl on Apr 2, 2007 3:08 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

The Angels aren't all they're cracked up to be

The Angels have a lot of health problems, a lot of ifs, and I really think that Jared Weaver's going to go 9-13 with a lot of adjustments to make.

Seattle's a little better, but not that much better, and Texas will be better, but not that much better.

I still see the A's winning the west, something like 93-69, as long as Harden's healthy all year.  If Harden goes down, so do the A's...

"Sometimes you gotta destroy a village to save it"- Alan Embree

by The Pilots Dared Me To Die on Apr 2, 2007 12:29 PM PDT   0 recs

Starting an AN Prayer Vigil for Harden

.. with Blez' blessings of course .. all faiths welcome .. {g}

.. the Athletics may be small-market but they have BIG-heart! ..

by Randy Bell on Apr 2, 2007 12:31 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Also I Wanted to Add (abt halos defense)

.. the Angels' defense last year was atrocious.  It will be interesting to see if they are noticeably improved on the 'D' this year.  Which also, btw, is why I like the A's move to get us the best defensive infield {Swish, Ellis, Crosby, Chavy}, -- as Marty Lurie suggests, might be the best defensive infield in baseball, certainly one of the best.  I'm hoping we get Kots back sooner than later, which will help our outfield 'D' as well ..

.. the Athletics may be small-market but they have BIG-heart! ..

by Randy Bell on Apr 2, 2007 1:20 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I'm going to gaze deeply into my wheel of fortune

and pick my nose.  Then I'm going to hope that Mark Kotsay travels to the year 2089 and gets a spine implant, DJ gets Jordi LaForge's visor to fix his vision problems, and Selig institutes an NFL-ish fine and suspension policy for excessive celebration by closers in goggles.  Then I'm gonna go see Haren pitch at Angelheim stadium on Saturday.  YIPPEEE!!!!!!!

"robots with way too much intelligence, this chick, a healthy Eric Gagne..." ~cutthemullet

by LAXile on Apr 2, 2007 12:55 PM PDT   0 recs

Wow

A's could have a disastrous season this year and still finish ahead of Seattle and Texas. I think we can win this division with Harden healthy half of the season. I don't understand why people don't have faith in this team.

by BillyMac on Apr 2, 2007 1:10 PM PDT   0 recs

Harden is to us as Santana is to the Twins

.. I mean, if Santana went down, the Twins would probably be in trouble .. I think the same applies here, hence my joke about the prayer vigil for Rich.  I do agree with you that the A's may be a lot better than the pundits are saying -- seems like the A's get no respect, they have to prove themselves on the field every year -- but that's OK with me, the field results {not the prognostications} are all that matter. :)

.. the Athletics may be small-market but they have BIG-heart! ..

by Randy Bell on Apr 2, 2007 1:16 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Kennedy.

Kennedy, Kennedy Kennedy Kennedy?

Kennedy.

Kennedy: Kennedy KennedyKennedyKennedy / Kennedy.

And in closing,
Kennedy

by MobiusKlein on Apr 2, 2007 1:36 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Joe_K has looked OK in last two ST games ..

.. Keep the Faith, that BB knows what he is doing .. Kennedy looked pretty good in outings against the brewers and giants .. let's give him a chance .. ;-)

.. the Athletics may be small-market but they have BIG-heart! ..

by Randy Bell on Apr 2, 2007 1:40 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I Might Add - last yr, Mr.Houdini cap'n Kirk ..

.. was sometimes a heart attack case himself .. I thought Sarloos was decent as fifth, sometimes very good, but hoping that Kennedy can be at least as good .. in regular season is when the juices / adrenaline get flowing, let's give Joe_K a chance to show us what he's got .. fifth-starter seems to be a problem for lots of MLB teams ..

.. the Athletics may be small-market but they have BIG-heart! ..

by Randy Bell on Apr 2, 2007 1:44 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Is this a scene from 'Being Joe Kennedy'?
"Everyone knows about it, but nobody's heard of it. Oh, it exists." ~ Dan Johnson

by Poppy on Apr 2, 2007 1:46 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

no, 'Seeing Joe Kennedy'

And I do have faith, just answering "I don't understand why people don't have faith in this team." with the obvious retort.  We just may see a few more pitchers coming up this year, that's all.

by MobiusKlein on Apr 2, 2007 1:53 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

LOL

My comment was a reference to the film "Being John Malkovich".  If you haven't seen it, I can't explain it...  ;)

"Everyone knows about it, but nobody's heard of it. Oh, it exists." ~ Dan Johnson

by Poppy on Apr 2, 2007 5:42 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I wailed in dis-belief

upon reading that our fearless leader, Blez picked the Angels....a co-worker rushed over to ask what was wrong.  (I said I have pain, and might have to leave work early.)

Bud Selig is the bravest, kindest, warmest, most wonderful human being I've ever known in my life.

by ak_A on Apr 2, 2007 1:20 PM PDT   0 recs

Weird Summer Ahead

I have had this feeling for a while, but I really think this is going to be a very strange summer. Lots of surprises, a lot of things that people will be going, "Now who in the world would have predicted THAT!"

I still have all the faith in the world that our boys will be in the hunt till the very end, but I think that we are going to be in for some major surprises around all of baseball.

2007 has just been a very strange year and I don't see that changing any time soon.

"I'm already in Barry's head! He doesn't want to play against ME!" - Kotsay on facing Zito, Fan Fest 2007

by BobbyCrosbysGirl on Apr 2, 2007 1:23 PM PDT   0 recs

Do You Mean? ..

.. something like the Royals being in 1st-place in August, or something less shocking? .. {g} ..

.. the Athletics may be small-market but they have BIG-heart! ..

by Randy Bell on Apr 2, 2007 1:32 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I have the opposite feeling

  Just boredom and predictability with our team. They'll be healthier than usual. Just the win, win, win..five out of every 7 days. Day after day after day malaise. Ho hum

"I've been accused of using too many words...I suppose that's like accusing Mozart of using too many notes." Bill King

by Gerard on Apr 2, 2007 2:49 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Stop apologizing about 17-19

Why does everyone keep saying things like, "Well, you know we won't do that again ... Seattle's really gonna be after us this year ... Going 17-2 vs. Seattle won us the division ... etc.?"  I mean, I know this is kind of silly, but it almost sounds like we ought to feel bad about it or something.  The fact of the matter is this -- the A's played Seattle 19 times and kicked their ass 17. I'm not sorry about it. I'm glad they sucked, we beat the snot out of 'em, and we ought to do it again if we get the chance.
I would love to hear an Athletic proclaim, "I'm kinda pissed they managed to beat us twice!!"

VacaAsFan

by Vacafan on Apr 2, 2007 1:48 PM PDT   0 recs

17-2 A's over M's made sense

Last season
Oak - 124 runs scored, 64 runs allowed
Pythagorean winning pct: 79.0%
Expected record: 15-4

So 17-2 would not be too unexpected, especially considering the suckitude of the M's and their unwillingness to take walks.

"Incidentally, this sort of helps confirm my belief that Mark Kotsay is the perfect "average" player." - FJM

by doctorK on Apr 2, 2007 3:46 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I agree -- I tend to favor starting pitching

to tip the scales of predictions. of course there are always surprises.

I also think the Angels have an edge here, unfortunately. I think between the Angels and A's whoever has the least amount of injuries to its pitching staff will probably win the division.

I don't see either Texas or Seattle winning, due mainly to their rotation -- at least as they are now.

By the way, it's 1:50 pm -- I can't find Mrty Lurie on the radio. Anyone know when his show starts?

by OaklandSi on Apr 2, 2007 1:49 PM PDT   0 recs

Lurie is on KYCY 1550am right now
.. the Athletics may be small-market but they have BIG-heart! ..

by Randy Bell on Apr 2, 2007 2:11 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

yeah, I have it on now

sometimes my radio at work loses stations, so I wasn't sure...but it sounds good.

thanks!

by OaklandSi on Apr 2, 2007 2:17 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I have only one thing to say (at least for today)

LET'S GO OAKLAND!!!!

"Bill King wanted to beat the Giants...every day of his life" Korach and Fosse, SpringTraining, 3/14/07

by LongTimeFan on Apr 2, 2007 1:55 PM PDT   0 recs

MLB playoff predictions

I don't know which teams will meet (like everyone else) but I am very very 90-10 confident about the following re the playoffs:

Television scheduling will dictate the time of games, with allowances for football over most everything baseball.

The weather will be quite cold, and rainouts will occur.  

The level of play will be sub-par, with the weather and cross-country travel as the ultimate cause.

===========================================

Just reminding everyone of my =heavy= wild-ass opinion (wild-ass, but hugely sober sensible and better) that the playoffs prior to the World Series should be all eight teams in Las Vegas, all four AL teams in round-robin with each other, all four NL teams in roud-robin with each other.  Weather and travel is enough reason why.

The World Series schedule would look the same as the past 100 years of World Series, but played back as it used to be, the first week in October... not Halloween!!

"- J. Duchscherer relieved J. Duchscherer" per Yahoo! Sports Box Score

by One won lost won on Apr 2, 2007 3:10 PM PDT   0 recs

I'm very suprised you picked the Braves to finish

4th. they have a very good rotation, and a very good bullpen. no way do they finish 4th.

"Very nice day in the Oakland A... Oakland A's? What's this stadium called again?" Nick Swisher on TWIB.

by larrysgurl on Apr 2, 2007 3:12 PM PDT   0 recs

health and potential

IF this team stays healthy over the season...

IF this team plays to their offensive potential...

...the A's win the ALW divison by mid september.

"Where you start is not as important as where you finish."- Zig Ziglar

by bigelephant on Apr 2, 2007 3:18 PM PDT   0 recs

Amen to that!

I think so too.  When you say, "potential", recall Shannon Stewart nearly single-handedly carried Minnesota a couple of year back.  That, and .260 from Buck, 30+ Hrs from Piazza, Swisher, and Chavez... you're right..9/15.

"- J. Duchscherer relieved J. Duchscherer" per Yahoo! Sports Box Score

by One won lost won on Apr 2, 2007 3:26 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Thanks for your vote... for Boston... BUT

they are not looking so "hot" right now against... the who?  Kansas City Royals... the Royals are killing them on Opening Day!

by Yas822 on Apr 2, 2007 3:47 PM PDT   0 recs

predictions

AL EAST
New York 96
Boston        91
Toronto        82
Baltimore 75
Tampa Bay 72
AL CENTRAL
Minnesota 90
Cleveland 88
Detroit        84
Chicago        75
Kansas City 65
AL WEST
Los Angeles 87
Oakland        85
Texas        76
Seattle        73
NL EAST
Philadelphia 89
New York 88
Atlanta        84
Florida        79
Washington 60
NL CENTRAL
Milwaukee 86
St. Louis 85
Chicago        82
Houston        78
Pittsburgh 73
Cincinnati 73
NL WEST
Arizona        88
San Diego 86
Los Angeles 82
Colorado 79
San Francisco 79

Yankees over Angels, Twins over Red Sox
Brewers over Phillies, D-backs over Mets

Twins over Yankees, D-backs over Brewers

Twins over D-backs

MVP: Pujols, Sizemore
Cy Young: Sheets, Harden
RoY: Young, Matsuzaka

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Apr 3, 2007 8:13 AM PDT   0 recs

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