Zen and the Art of Scutaro
by Tyler Bleszinski on Nov 19, 2007 12:57 PM PST
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PrintI was pretty busy this weekend. I took my daughter to "A Day Out with Thomas the Tank Engine". They essentially have a life-sized Thomas that you actually ride on which was pretty much the greatest moment of my daughter's two years and 10 months of life. But given that it was in Perris, CA, which feels like another country altogether, I felt like I was completely out of touch.
Apparently I was because the A's decided to move Marco Scutaro. I'm pretty sad about it just because, as we all know, Scoot was an extremely lovable player. Even though he never seemed to be a huge hitter or the "big bat" the A's have been seemingly looking for since the Stone Age, there was always a sense of Zen whenever Marco was at the plate in a close game. It didn't seem to matter who was trying to stop him either, whether it was Mariano Rivera or K-Rod, Scoot was just one of those guys who relished the opportunity to be a hero. And those types of players seem too infrequent these days.
Listen, we can sit here and debate whether or not clutch players exist or not, but I can't help but think of that term now and I will always see Marco Scutaro. And truthfully, when the A's either host or visit Toronto, I will peering through the hands over my eyes when Mr. Scutaro comes up to bat because I've seen what he can do and as thrilling as it was for me before, it'll be just as scary being on the other side now.
The eternal question in baseball isn't to be or not to be, it's clutch or not clutch? We, as A's fans, have likely had the answer to that question after watching Marco Scutaro for the past several seasons.
I guess this makes me wonder if Billy Beane has already decided to try and rebuild. I know Scutaro wasn't exactly one of the big money holes for the A's, but I don't think there is a question that the A's could use Scoot's versatility for depth reasons if they were really going to go for it in 2008. Time will tell whether this is just the first of many moves, but this quote makes me think that the A's have realized that they have a big issue of depth in their minors and if they're going to truly be competitive for years to come they need to restock:
I don't think we're truly going to know what the A's are doing until they move someone like Blanton or Haren. But for now, we have to just stop and mourn the loss of one of the most hard-working and clutch players to ever wear green and gold. We'll miss you, Scoot.
Also, the Angels traded Orlando Cabrera for Jon Garland today. I'm not really sure that I understand the move considering that the Angels had pretty much Vlad and Cabrera perform consistently throughout 2007 and that was it. They had other guys perform, but they also had injury issues or other inconsistencies. I am in the camp that thinks that this means that Ervin Santana is going to be dealt for Tejada or possibly a Miguel Cabrera deal is coming for the Halos. I guess it's conceivable that the Angels are just stacking up on starting pitching with the philosophy that you can never have enough great pitching (not a bad philosophy). But I just think that the Angels have had the same offensive issues the past few seasons that the A's have had with the the big exception that the Angels have had a monster in Vlad in their lineup and the A's haven't. I just can't see killing that depth more without having something else to back it up.
Oh and, ho hum, A-Rod won the AL MVP.
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Murphy time
As much as I like Scutaro, I'm excited to see Murphy get more playing time. I don't think Murphy will be worse that Scoot as our utility IF and he is making a fraction of what Scoot will get. The money saved can be used towards us getting or trading for a CF. jason Bay, anyone?
by hollandcl on Nov 19, 2007 1:03 PM PST reply actions
j bay would be nice...
but i am not sure how far his stock is down after a pretty bad year. i still think he is pretty good overall, and maybe could be had at a decent price, although the new pirates gm seems to actually know a thing or two about baseball.
Rotoworld says Buck and Blanton needed for Bay
I say "no way, Jose."
Wow
I wouldn't trade Buck or Blanton straight up for Bay.
by BlameChannel53 on Nov 20, 2007 10:05 AM PST up reply actions
Clutch
I've said it before and I'll say it again: The argument is not that clutch does not exist; it's that clutch is not a repeatable skill.
This is easy to understand if you compare clutch to luck. Suppose there were a sport in which absolutely no skill was involved and players just rolled dice to score points for their team.
At the end of the year, you would be able to identify certain players who repeatedly got lucky rolls, and you'd be absolutely right to identify those players as lucky. At the end of three years, you'd still be able to identify some players who had been consistently lucky throughout all three seasons.
And yet, if for the fourth year you were to assemble a team made up only of lucky players, you'd be no better off than anyone else, because luck is not a repeatable skill.
I'm not saying that clutch is luck. I'm just saying that it exhibits the same pattern: it does exist, but there's no demonstrated correlation between past clutch and future clutch.
My take on the clutchness
Skills-wise, Marco may be replacement-level or no-great-shakes or whatever we're calling it. But his intelligence is what has led to so many clutch performances.
Basically, he's good at figuring out when he's in a situation where he can effectively look for something and get it. In all his post-clutch-moment interviews, he always breaks down the situation and says he was looking for something specific and got it. I sure wish certain other players were that smart.
I'm a huge Marco fan, but this kind of move is very good for the A's. He's not (supposed to be) an integral part of the current team, and he has at least a little bit of perceived value -- might as well cash in on it. And it opens the door for some younger, cheaper, and possibly more talented alternatives.
Simple explanation I heard
was that Scutaro is a good fastball hitter, and relievers (and especially closers) throw more fastballs.
Makes sense to me.
combine that with the facts that ...
... Scutaro doesn't have especially good plate control/discipline -- i.e., if you throw him a fastball, he's likely to swing at it almost regardless of location -- and not only do most closers throw more fastballs, most good closers throw fastballs around the plate.
Re: the rebuild
Forst was asked in one of the pieces I saw whether this meant the team was rebuilding, and said that they still hadn't decided which way to go. This isn't a coded signal of some sort-- Scutaro just didn't have a roster spot next season.
right
this was going to happen regardless...and it did.
A-Rod may be the AL MVP...
...but he'll never be a True Yankee®!eleventy-one!
by GreenNGoldSooner on Nov 19, 2007 1:47 PM PST reply actions
ARod != True Yankee
I wonder if they will still be saying that when he goes into the HoF as a Yankee.
No I don't - of course they will.
Beane and the rebuild
I don't think Scutaro tells us much about the A's willingness to rebuild. Murphy is just a better option and Petit may be as well by June or July. Here is what makes me think that Beane may be willing to rebuild: he is saying silly things again. My theory on Beane is that he says nonsensical things to the media when he does not want to get into the facts. For example, he has a reason for DFA'ing Bradley, but makes up some strange excuse of needing another utility infielder as cover.
My theory as applied here is this: Billy has said he will determine whether to rebuild in December based on the health of players. That statement is silly, because the A's will know very little about their health in December. How is Chavez going to react to his Bionic Man treatment? Who the hell knows? We will have to see Chavez on an actual baseball field before we know, and that is not going to happen in December. Remember how many times we've heard how Kotsay is healthy over the last few years, and then he hasn't been? How will we know Kotsay is healthy until games actually start? We won't. How about Harden? Want to try to lay odds as to his health? Good luck with that. How about Buck? Street? There are a lot of question marks, and those questions will not be answered in December?
When I see Beane saying these things I begin to wonder why he says them. I think he says them not for their believability, but for the purpose he hopes to derive from them. What purpose does the silly statement serve in this instance? My theory is that it allows Beane to open the trade market on his players without committing to any particular move. Want Haren? You can have him, but the price will be x player + x player + x player? Want Blanton? He comes a little cheaper, but not by much. Would you like Street? He can be had too, if you meet my price. I think no player on the A's is untouchable, but Beane feels no particular trade has to be made. If Beane gets the players he wants in return he will pull the trigger. If not, he'll move on to the next team's offer and consider that.
2007 was a frustrating year, but in a way it provides opportunity in allowing Beane to make trades without being as concerned with their short-term impact. He can afford to risk 2008, acquiring young players who may be good in 2008 but are even better long-terms bets. I would not be surprised to see 2008 mirror 2005: the A's trade a couple of proven players for younger, talented unproven players who may or may not be as good in 2008 as the players they are replacing.
This is nothing more than speculation on my part, but it makes more sense than Beane's explanation. Whether this offseason ends up in a "rebuilding" year in 2008 will depend on how much other teams are willing to pay for our players. Beane will only sell at his price, because he can afford to carry the inventory.
Trading Scutaro != rebuilding
Clutchiness aside, moving a career utility guy when there are cheaper options who will give you the same production doesn't signify a rebuild, it signifies doing the right thing.
Now, letting Brandon Buckley walk and bringing Chavez' brother in as the bullpen catcher? FIRESALE!
hahahahahaha
BUCK! chabot college gladiators represent.
Orlando Cabrera to White Sox
For his career, Cabrera has a .321 OBP and 86 OPS+. Sounds like a perfect fit for the Ozzie Guillen South Side Grinders.
Cabrera / Garland trade
I don't see this as a bad trade for the Angels, even if it is not a prelude to a bigger deal (which it probably is). If you look at the 2008 ZIPS projections, M.Izturis is projected to outhit O.Cabrera by a decent amount. Izturis doesn't have a bad glove, but Cabrera probably has an edge in the field. Izturis is younger/cheaper than OCAB. At worst the Angels are getting Garland while only giving up some depth at the SS position. Could they have got more than Garland? Not sure, but this is a net gain for the Angels since they are dealing from strength.
vr, Xei
by xeifrank @ Athletics Nation on Nov 19, 2007 3:39 PM PST reply actions
I'll miss Magic Marco
and MarcoMagic will have to change his handle.
He'll do well, and when he leads the way with the "further-becoming-like-the-A's" (adding wonderMarco to Frank Thomas and Matt Stairs), then I will applaud him.
He gave us all great memories.
We'll miss ya buddy!
Trading Scoot= welcome back Miggy
I think this is a sign of the A's opening up SS for Tejada. they need a right handed bat with a little more pop. Crosby cannot be relied upon. I think Beane pulls the trigger and revitalizes Miggy's career back in Oakland.
by Hawk on Nov 19, 2007 6:59 PM PST reply actions
I dunno - that's kind of like saying
that letting DiNardo go would be a sign of the A's opening up the rotation for Zito. Who was once better than DiNardo will ever be, and is also really expensive and not that great anymore.
So what the Jays' are saying is...
Bobby Crosby isn't worth two righty diapers and a can of kodiak. I personally, and from the club stand point would've liked to have seen Crosby go in this deal and Scoot become full time until the team reaches a decision on the future.
Well, that's not bad for ol Bobby
considering a can of Kodiak costs me over $7.50 down at the market.
Beane is up to something
Rumor has it he is working on a big trade. A infielder is coming soon but who is it? One rumor is tejada but he could be headed tio angels if they dont get cabrera. The question is who are the A's going after. Dark horse is david eckstien. Beane also likes CFer Cameron and may make a offer for him. So many rumors but which ones are true?
Not sure Eckstein is a dark horse
so much as a Jason Kendall clone - gritty, mid-30s, weak arm, little power. Strengths: Lots of contact. Weaknesses: The contact.
Eckstein = Do Not Want
And I would have said this long before ever reading FJM.
Eckstein is actually league-average
but the A's can't afford to be paying $36 million over 4 years for "league-average."
So I agree-- I don't want him, at least not at his price.
Not getting the money
Eckstien is not be offered very much. The only way the A's will sign him is for a 1 year deal.
I'm not sure if he'd count as an IFer..
but with the talk of Cust being a plan B (if you believe it or not).. I immediately thought of Sweeney. Who if I remember correctly is looking for a one year deal. Sexson was the second name I considered.. and I know we've discussed him at length over here before.
And just my interpretation, but I think moving Marco means that the As are going to remain competitive with a few clever additions. As I said before, I'd expect DJ, Marco, and Kotsay to be moved this offseason as they have been passed or can be passed in the near future. Also, the savings could go to a BP arm. (Kerry Wood anyone??)
by AsWin on Nov 19, 2007 10:04 PM PST up reply actions
I haven't heard these rumors
by Helloooo 1st on Nov 19, 2007 10:39 PM PST up reply actions
My prediction
The A's sign shortstop Tomohiro Nioka before the opening game in Japan. This will earn us some Japanese support, too.
I'm just kidding, but it'd be cool.
I'll repeat my prediction
that when all is said and done, Marco will have better career numbers than Bobby Crosby.
It is Zen that Marco is on season ticket brochure
Perfect planning a day or two after the salary dump of that grossly overpaid backup who has played more games the past 4 years other than maybe Chavez-- my season ticket bill came with a brochure of Marco being the hero at home plate with another walk off. Zen or part of Beane's plan---or just totally dissfuntional marketing.
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