To Joel Piñeiro's Mom: Please Do Not Read This

by Nico on Jan 6, 2007 10:36 AM PST in News

Folks, we need to have a serious talk about Joel Piñeiro, whom the Boston Red Sox signed, Thursday, to a one-year deal worth up to $4,000,000. You see, Piñeiro's "Suckitude," a stat measured by taking a pitcher's Suckosity and dividing it by his Suckability Factor, can only adequately be conveyed by unleashing a relentless barrage of embarrassing statistical observations that will end with a question I wish to pose to Theo Epstein.

Piñeiro, who sported a 4.67 ERA in 2004, and a 5.62 ERA in 2005, boasted (and I may have chosen the wrong word here) a 6.36 ERA in 2006. Do you see a trend over the past three seasons? Opposing batters, who hit .265 against Piñeiro in 2004, then .300 against him in 2005, enjoyed themselves to the tune of a .311 average in 2006. You may notice a pattern.

Granted, Piñeiro was not as bad in 2006 as he may have seemed to A's fans because Piñeiro was 0-5 with a 10.73 ERA against Oakland. But Piñeiro's grave (and I'm pretty sure I chose the right word here) difficulties against the A's--a low-average team that batted .400 against Piñeiro--only begins to tell this sad tale of a man who pitched 166 innings last season and struck out only 87 batters...

Piñeiro's ERA every 15 pitches looked like this:

Pitches 1-15: 6.21 ERA
Pitches 15-30: 5.16 ERA
Pitches 30-45: 6.58 ERA
Pitches 45-60: 7.15 ERA
Pitches 60-75: 7.59 ERA
Pitches 75-90: 7.40 ERA
Pitches 90-105: 3.29 ERA

So if you could somehow stomach Piñeiro's first 90 pitches, he really wasn't bad at all. Piñeiro's main problem, along with all the other ones, was that he not only let lots and lots (and lots) of people get on base, but he didn't strand them very well either. With runners on base, Piñeiro's ERA was 11.03. With runners in scoring position, his ERA was 15.67. And with 2-outs-and-runners-in-scoring-position, his ERA was 38.12. Oops.

Piñeiro did keep his pitch count low in 2006 by basically running an incentive-based program, where you had great incentive to swing. Because if you hit the first pitch, you batted .410. Why wait around?

Now if you'll forgive me for making a slight understatement, the above stats do not highly recommend a pitcher to serve as a major league closer. Which is precisely the role Boston is rumored to have in mind for Piñeiro--a guy who gives up tons of hits, especially when they could drive in runs, doesn't miss bats (and the feeling is mutual), and who only abandons his Jason Marquis imitation on about his 91st pitch.

Oh right, the question: MY GOD, THEO, WHAT ARE YOU THINKING???

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Comments

Clearly, Pineiro saves his best stuff

for the end of the game. It's perfect.

Read my latest articles

by devo on Jan 6, 2007 10:37 AM PST 0 recs

A possible explanation...

Pineiro pitched decent in the bullpen last year. A 4.81 ERA is high but he only gave up 19 H and 10 BB in 24.1 IP, good for a WHIP of 1.19. He also struck out 20.

And with Papelborn moving to the rotation, everyone in the Red Sox bullpen is a canidate for Closer.

This guy is dead! We'll list him as day-to-day for possible reincarnation.

A's Medical Staff, 2006

by grover on Jan 6, 2007 10:57 AM PST 0 recs

The Red Sox did cite P's

2006 bullpen numbers in justifying the signing, as well as the observation that his stuff often "looked great in the bullpen". Another ringing endorsement that should mollify any Sox fan.

They passed on Chris Reitsma (signed yesterday, following season-ending surgery) and Keith Foulke (whom the Indians are paying $5mil), and those in the Bay Area are well aware of the availability of Armando Benitez. All risks, fo' shizzle. But more than Piñeiro? Eh...Ask any Mariners fan that querie...

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 6, 2007 11:04 AM PST up 0 recs

Maybe

They're going to have him throw 90 pitches in the bullpen prior to coming in for the save.

I'd like to eat my lunch, but Billy just kicked me out of my office.

by BlameChannel53 on Jan 6, 2007 11:05 AM PST 0 recs

You and devo might be

on to something. But then Piñeiro needs to be very efficient and get the job done in 15 pitches or less--because tragically, in pitches 106-120 his ERA was 10.13.

However, here Joel will be helped by the fact that batters are so understandably eager to whack at the first pitch and put it in play. It's sheer brilliance of the Red Sox to capitalize on the undervalued commodity of "the ability not to suck ridiculously in 15 of my 120 pitches."

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 6, 2007 11:10 AM PST up 0 recs

OK, here's the part I don't understand

Perhaps some baseball genius can enlighten me on this one.

Piniero was a starting pitcher.

His ERA was over 6.

And it's not just that he got tired in the seventh or eighth inning -- he gave up a lot of runs early, middle, and late, according to his stats.

So how is it that the manager consistently left him in the game long enough to get to pitch 90, 100, let alone 120?

MJB

by MJB on Jan 9, 2007 12:01 AM PST up 0 recs

Three points in reply, MJB:

The stats don't suggest how often Pineiro threw 90+ pitches, just how well he did when he got to that point.
Since Pineiro probably threw 90 pitches in less than 5 innings a lot of the time (because he sucked), the M's probably tried to squeeze as much out of him as possible--in games that were often lost causes--in order to save their tired and sucky bullpen.
Mike Hargrove is an idiot.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 10, 2007 8:53 PM PST up 0 recs

When was the last time someone got paid

$4 million to suck this bad?

"Is this heaven? No, it's the f'ing suburbs."

by LAXile on Jan 6, 2007 11:13 AM PST 0 recs

Monica Lewinsky?

This guy is dead! We'll list him as day-to-day for possible reincarnation.

A's Medical Staff, 2006

by grover on Jan 6, 2007 11:13 AM PST up 0 recs

zingggggg

by OaktownIn06 on Jan 6, 2007 1:07 PM PST up 0 recs

Scout alert!

The decision to sign Pineiro, from my reading, was based on a scouting assessment of his stuff translating successfully to the bullpen.

Says Cafardo of the Globe:

This, ladies and gentlemen, is about pure scouting.

It's not about numbers or spreadsheets or anything you can download from a computer. This is old-fashioned scouting. The type that projects a player into a role he's not used to. Starter to closer? It worked for Tom Gordon and Dennis Eckersley, but it's failed for many others.
...
Closers the Red Sox looked at were either too expensive (in terms of prospects) or had medical issues. Red Sox special assistant Allard Baird went to Seattle late in the season and watched Pineiro come out of the bullpen after he was demoted as a starter. He watched his stuff, how he conducted himself, how he approached the job. And Baird came away thinking this is a guy who could successfully work out of the bullpen.

So this is the case of a team using its scouts to come to a decision instead of statistics. Good teams, like the Red Sox, do use both when making decisions. (Despite the Moneyball press, scouting probably helped the A's determine that Swisher and Blanton were ready for the MLB despite mediocre numbers at AAA.)

Obviously, the statistics tell us one thing and I'm more inclined to believe those. But Baird's background is a scouting background, and my understanding is that he is a good scout. He probably has some reason to believe that Pineiro won't suck in the bully. Unlike fans and statheads, however, scouts get away with not having to justify their actions in clear, accessible language.

Stat Wonk Futurist

by salb918 on Jan 6, 2007 11:29 AM PST 0 recs

Great find, salb918--thanks!

I actually really like and respect that approach; it's a great way to find the Duchscherers, whose stats and/or stuff don't impress anyone else. Piñeiro did have two legitimately excellent seasons (2002 and 2003) so we know that at least at some point in his career, he had what it took to succeed at the major league level. Who knows? That's what makes baseball so interesting--that scouting and stat-gleaning are both inexact Sciences.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 6, 2007 11:42 AM PST up 0 recs

Carroll:

Most of all, I want the scouts themselves to have the same type of accountability as we, the writers, do. When I said Mark Prior was hurt, I stood by it. When I said C.C. Sabathia would break down, I stood by it. I've been right a lot and wrong a lot, but I've been both clear about how I reached the conclusion and in eating my serving of crow when I was wrong.

No mention of Harden... I don't recall him being clear about how he reached the conclusion and I especially don't remember him eating any crow. Like, maybe, "Hey, A's fans, since I'm making this shit up as I go, and modeling the use of my medical knowledge on Dr. Frist, I really should have written 'TJ a possibility' instead of 'The surgeons are already sharpening their scalpels.'"

by mikeA on Jan 6, 2007 11:50 AM PST up 0 recs

Not fair to Carroll

He ate plenty of crow after the fact, it just didn't make it to AN because it wasn't as sensational as his initial reports of TJ for Harden. The A's medical staff is evidently very tight-lipped and he made it clear in the original piece that based on what he knew Rich was going under the knife. It was only after that report came out that the A's medical staff came clean with what was really going on (it's probably part of their Hippocratic oath to prevent mass suicide, even by baseball fans). Did he jump the gun? Probably, yes. Is he making stuff up? No, because if he wasn't right a whole lot of the time no one would listen to him.

by Doug on Jan 6, 2007 2:55 PM PST up 0 recs

He was way off base on that one...

But let's not bury an EXCELLENT injury reporter for one mistake from a team that is very careful about giving up injury info. He screwed up, but 95% of his stuff is excellent...and his book was excellent too.

He was wrong, he has said he was wrong, let's let it go.

Bring back Hammer.

by OaktownPower on Jan 6, 2007 4:19 PM PST up 0 recs

I heard Tony LaRussa

say on KNBR that he wished the salary's were about half as much as they are now. This Theo Epstein's a clown. If the US dollar ever collapsed I wouldn't care if baseball went out of business and all these guys had to go out and get a real job like the rest of us. That would fix their ass. Then maybe baseball would go back to normal.

by Salvatore on Jan 6, 2007 11:33 AM PST 0 recs

Yeah, I miss the "normal"

days of baseball: before players had the right to play where they wanted, before strength-and-conditioning made for better athletes, and before integration.

Face it, baseball is getting better and more entertaining every year (otherwise you wouldn't still be watching!). Despite MLB's inept marketing, more fans are coming to the ballpark and revenues are through the roof. Baseball is far from perfect and not all the moves are positive, but it's getting better and better as a consumer product. Yay!

Stat Wonk Futurist

by salb918 on Jan 6, 2007 11:55 AM PST up 0 recs

And if you want to know

how "fan friendly" pro sports can be when there's a salary cap, just take a look at the NFL -- taxpayer-subsidized stadiums, personal seat licenses, incredibly expensive parking and food, ticket plans that mandate the purchase (at full price) or meaningless exhibition games played by NFL Europe benchwarmers...

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Jan 6, 2007 2:13 PM PST up 0 recs

well

if sal is going to defend baseball by pointing out that revenues are through the roof, i'm sure they are in football as well. and the football salary cap means competitive balance. i also don't see the connection between an NFL salary cap and taxpayer-subsidized stadiums, ticket plans that include exhibition games, etc.
i don't want a salary cap in baseball, but i don't know if it would be so bad either.

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Jan 6, 2007 2:22 PM PST up 0 recs

Salary caps

Yeah, I guess my point was a little obtuse. All I'm saying is that a lot of people seem to think that a salary cap will bring back the "good old days" of $1 hot dogs and $2 bleachers, and that rising player salaries are to blame for rising costs to fans.

None of which, I think, is true. Owners will charge as much as they can for everything related to their teams, regardless of what they pay their players -- just like they'll seek taxpayer funding for stadiums no matter how profitable their businesses really are. I don't see the NCAA selling tickets at cost, and their players play for free.

As far as competitive balance is concerned, I think "uniform mediocrity" is really what's going on in the NFL, and it's based on the league's observation that the appeal of the NFL is based on providing a venue for gambling, public drunkenness, and socializing (either at the game or in front of the tv). Basically, although people have noticed that NFL teams are mostly pretty bad now, by historic standards, no one cares because the game is just a Macguffin for the gambling, drinking, and partying that makes the NFL what it is. As long as your team isn't putrid (q.v., the Raiders) it's still fun to be a fan, and the system is based on avoiding putridness at all costs.

But, that being said, I think the NFL salary cap is about (1) the owners keeping and exercising their collective power (2) the owners keeping as much of the leagues money as possible, and a distant, distant (3) keeping the league healthy with "competitive balance."

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Jan 6, 2007 2:40 PM PST up 0 recs

NFL salary cap system is all about owner power

In the NFL, player contracts are not guaranteed, so if you cut a player in the middle of a contract, he gets nothing (other than what he'd been paid before being cut).

The only reason to not cut a player is if doing so messes up the team's salary cap number according to the league's cap rules.

The cap also makes it easier to cut popular players, because teams can tell the fans (and the media types who swallow every piece of BS coming out of an NFL team's offices), "Hey, we love Longtime Fan Favorite as much as you do, but the salary cap left us no choice but to cut him and welch on the three years remaining on his contract."

An NFL player who looks overpaid two years after signing his contract will be cut. An NFL player who looks underpaid after two years is still shackled, and stuck with being underpaid for the remainder of his contract, hoping against hope that he won't suffer a career-ending injury before he reaches free agency.

MJB

by MJB on Jan 9, 2007 12:10 AM PST up 0 recs

I guess

you don't quite know what normal is.

by Salvatore on Jan 6, 2007 12:01 PM PST 0 recs

Educate me.

Stat Wonk Futurist

by salb918 on Jan 6, 2007 12:04 PM PST up 0 recs

"Normal"

is when you reply to a comment by clicking on "reply to this."

by mikeA on Jan 6, 2007 12:06 PM PST up 0 recs

You saw

what Tony LaRussa said--I'm with him so maybe that makes us abnormal.

by Salvatore on Jan 6, 2007 12:07 PM PST up 0 recs

Normal is management wishing

that ballplayers got paid half of what they make. Check.

Stat Wonk Futurist

by salb918 on Jan 6, 2007 12:09 PM PST up 0 recs

larussa works for minimum wage

he's got a second job as a cashier at wal-mart on the weekends.

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Jan 6, 2007 2:00 PM PST up 0 recs

Its gonna be fun

watching Boston eat Piniero alive after he blows his first save.

Who do they really have though? Julian "C Murder" Tavarez? Yikes.

I think after the dust clears and a few guys blow saves, they will either trade for a regular closer or Timlin will be the only one somewhat reliable.

This will be topic #1 for the whole year though among the boston blowhards IMO.

"...we don't score six, seven runs. We score three, four runs and play defense and pitch" - Eric Chavez

by pickinmachine on Jan 6, 2007 12:19 PM PST 0 recs

just my opinion

but i think piniero will be a successful closer next year.

by OaktownIn06 on Jan 6, 2007 1:08 PM PST 0 recs

Gutsy Prediction

I say Pineiro has a 5% chance of getting an actual save opportunity. 33% chance of still being on the active roster by the All-Star Break.

His stuff is horrible. Horrible stuff gets hit really, really hard.

by Colorado Fan on Jan 6, 2007 3:25 PM PST up 0 recs

Piñeiro used to have

excellent command of a first-rate slider. The emphasis, unfortunately for him, is on the "used to".

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 6, 2007 3:51 PM PST up 0 recs

Nico

I'm planning on going to a party tonight, and drinks will be served. When I get home, I will go to bed. But tomorrow, I'll most probably wake up with a hangover.

So, Can you please provide some comic relief on the Kei Igawa Interview. Is Kei serious? Is he Bill Parcells in a baseball uniform? Is Igawa a NY Media genius? What's the deal?

Thanks,

by Colorado Fan on Jan 6, 2007 4:18 PM PST up 0 recs

I'm afraid that Joel Piñeiro

will be providing all the comic relief from now on.

From that transcript, I'd say Igawa has a dry sense of humor. From your post, I'd say "dry" is not a big part of your weekend plans. Nico out.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 6, 2007 4:34 PM PST up 0 recs

That's because he was Ryan Franklins roiding

buddy.

M's fan. Our young Ace, is better than your young Ace.

by Goose on Jan 7, 2007 2:25 AM PST up 0 recs

Kei Igawa Interview

Dude is the Japanese Barry Zito. So "Flaky".

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/franz_lidz/01/04/igawa.qa/

(Sample)

SI: Tokugawa was a gourmand who claimed to be one of the first Japanese to eat ramen. What's the most exotic food in your fridge?
Igawa: Water.

SI: What has been the greatest embarrassment in your life?
Igawa: I've lost my wallet four times. I got it back every single time.

SI: What do you like most about New York City?
Igawa: The energy. People are filled with pride.

SI: And dislike?
Igawa: No manners in driving. Lots of horns.

SI: What did you spend your first paycheck on?
Igawa: In Japan, I bought candy. In the U.S., I left tips at the St. Regis.

SI: What kind of hitters give you the most trouble?
Igawa: Fast-running singles hitters. They make me throw a lot of pitches.

SI: What kind do you most like to face?
Igawa: Free-swinging power hitters.

SI: What impresses you most about the American game?
Igawa: The greatness of your baseball tradition. I'd like to learn the culture itself.

SI: What's the worst thing that has ever been written about you?
Igawa: Ask the Japanese media.

SI: Your favorite film actor?
Igawa: Ken Watanabe of The Last Samurai and Letters from Iwo Jima.

SI: Do you have a secret ambition?
Igawa: That's secret.

SI: What is the question are you most asked at parties?
Igawa: "When did you start playing baseball?"

by Colorado Fan on Jan 6, 2007 3:48 PM PST 0 recs

pitch count

pitchers are only allowed to reach 90 pitches when they're having a good night. Essentially, you're looking at ERA on nights the pitcher doesn't suck.

I must be missing something, but didn't Allard Baird prove he has trouble with talent evaluation already?

by MrIncognito on Jan 6, 2007 6:02 PM PST 0 recs

similarly...

I think you'll find most starters have their best ERA in games where they pitch 8 or more innings. Therefore, you should always let them pitch 8 innings.

and similarly...
The Yankees win a far higher percentage of games when Mariano Rivera appears than when he doesn't. So if they were smart, they'd just have Rivera come out and pitch to the first batter of every game. Then they could pretty much coast the rest of the way...

by matthias on Jan 6, 2007 7:18 PM PST up 0 recs

Dal-Sea

That was a crazy fucking play.

by mikeA on Jan 6, 2007 7:49 PM PST 0 recs

This is the first NFL game

I've watched all year. Don't know why I'm watching this one.

by mikeA on Jan 6, 2007 7:52 PM PST up 0 recs

if dallas scores here

do they go for two?

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Jan 6, 2007 8:01 PM PST up 0 recs

hmmm

The score keeps changing. Obviously they do at 26-21, but I'm sure that's not what you meant.

by mikeA on Jan 6, 2007 8:05 PM PST up 0 recs

bad call on the spot

by mikeA on Jan 6, 2007 8:06 PM PST up 0 recs

Wow

I picked a good one for my only game of the year.

by mikeA on Jan 6, 2007 8:10 PM PST up 0 recs

the second game in a row

romo has missed a game winning TD by 1.5 yards or so.

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Jan 6, 2007 8:12 PM PST up 0 recs

it's not that the score keeps changing

i just can't add.

whoa, what the hell just happened?

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Jan 6, 2007 8:09 PM PST up 0 recs

This is great!

A week of Parcells/TO coverage and then no more until about June!

Eh, that's probably too optimistic.

by mikeA on Jan 6, 2007 8:20 PM PST up 0 recs

my rev halofan blame of the game gramatica

sure it required quick thinking, but what a weak block on that guy. romo probably would have had the first down if gramatica could have just slowed him down a bit.

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Jan 6, 2007 8:27 PM PST up 0 recs

I'd go with Macha

by mikeA on Jan 6, 2007 8:37 PM PST up 0 recs

Why not?

This is the kind of move you can afford to make when you play with Monopoly money. Pineiro has a live arm, has had success in the major leagues before, and is only 28. The bullpen is exactly where pitchers who can't start go, and some become really successful at it (see Duchscherer, Justin).

They probably should have been able to sign him for less, but I can only imagine they were competing with someone else for his services (I heard the Royals were interested in him as a starter).

"Look its either batman or batman and robin not robin w/o batman robin isn't sh@#."--cchefz71

by jeepers on Jan 10, 2007 8:58 AM PST 0 recs