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Change is not new.  I can remember going to a game in Oakland when Joe Rudi and I think it was Vida Blue were wearing Boston Red Sox uniforms.  The trade got nixed in the commissioners office, so it didn't go through.  But those A's lost Reggie Jackson, Catfish Hunter, etc.  Whether there is more or less change now is probamatical.  This francise has a history of getting rid of their good players, almost always for financial reasons.

Change is the name of the game.  Unless you have a pay tv network like the Yankees, you can't keep all of your good players who demand and are worth more and more money.  The A's don't have a pay tv network.  

The miracle is that the A's have stayed relatively competative through most of this turmoil.  

Here's hoping for an injury free 07.

I hate the Chicago White Sox, but Big Hurt was always one of my favorite players.  Every year I thought we might have a chance to acquire him, given his large ability and small appreciation from the White Sox.  Finally, in 2006, the stars aligned and he was ours.  After a magical season in which he carried us into the playoffs and through the ALDS before his broad shoulders finally gave out in the ALCS, he is gone.  I understand the baseball/financial reasons why Big Hurt is no longer with us, but it doesn't change the fact that one of my favorite players of all-time is now gone after only one year.  2007 will seem a whole lot emptier to me, no matter how much success the team has.  

I will miss the good starts you had in 2005 and the occasional good starts/relief appearances in 2006.  Here's hoping Halsey a) gets a tan and b) learns how to pitch well.

Right now I am sort of scratching my head to the moves made this offseason.

Starting with Ken Macha , which was a brilliant move that a monkey would have made. His possible replacements were named but there was only one real replacement. For now I give Geren the benefit of the doubt but lets face it he doesnt look more qualified then Washington , or Macha for that matter.

Then the Embree signing....??? Signing vet crappers like this has always irked me. See Mecir , Witasik , Hammonds , etc. My prediction is a relievers that was very effective before coming to Oakland turning into a solid waste and becoming nothing more then a mop-up pitcher. Id also like to say that Embree does not fit the bill as an Oakland A. Not that Im sure we have such an identity with all the turnover but Embree is far from one.

The announcing of Kennedy as a likely Starter, just for the simple fact he is a lefty. While I agree lefties are important , I also think that they have to be effective first. Kennedy was effective as a reliever not a starter simple fact and its not going to chancge.

Then the resinging of Antonio Perez who last year made us all look like ball players. I mean for a cash strapped franchise we do love to carry one or two pieces of dead wood a year.

Then the dream that one day Dan Johnson would turn into a good ML hitter.

THE A'S HAVE MEDIOCRE WRITTEN ALL OVER THEM THIS YEAR.

One move that may turn me off this year would be the signing of Dustin Hermanson who I have hated since his days with the Giants.

Ever since mid-December I've been thinking, Billy's GOT to have one more move up his sleeve to strengthen the roster. So we get our move in late January, and what does it do but weaken the 25 man roster.

The 2006 A's just barely made the playoffs, largely by the luck of no other team in the division being strong. I'm trying and trying to see how the 2007 A's are a better team and I just don't see it yet - unless they get incredibly lucky and have no serious injuries to principal starters. (Hahaha.)

We have in effect replaced
Barry Zito with Alan Embree (huge  minus)
Frank Thomas with Mike Piazza (slight minus)
Jay Payton with ... I don't know. (big minus)
Kirk Saarloos with ... I don't know. (minus)

On the plus side we just might have Durazo to sit on the bench waiting in case Piazza gets hurt. That's some comfort. Sure.

Someone please explain the big plusses this offseason that make up for the minuses. Pretty please?

worse now and no better in the future.

I have always looked at the Beane reign as one where if we were worse in the present we would be better in the future.

For the first time the A's future looks pretty dark. With the exception of Swisher , Buck , Harden , Haren and Street. Right now the A's have several young players looking on the early decline.

Chavez , Crosby , Blanton , Ellis , Johnson , Meyer all look like they will never hit that potential promised.

The drafts have been critisized over the years for being to money ball heavy and not enough talent drafted.

The minor leagues lacks any player with SUPER STAR potential.

The only promising prospects in the higher system are Suzuki , Buck and Barton.

Right now if Im Beane Id make everyone on the team available and seriously rebuild ala Marlins for the future. The only player Id possibly keep is Swisher , and maybe Harden.

system.  The crucial element of sustainable success for a small market club like Oakland is a deep and rich farm system, to develop home grown stars (Giambi, Tejada, Hudson, Zito, etc), as well as pawns for future trades (Ortiz, Adkins, Harang, Ethier, etc.).  I look at the A's minor league system now and it is woefully barren and Giant's-like.  There are a some interesting prospects that might develop into bench contibutor but little to no star power.  Worst of all, the best potential is down in the low minors and won't ripen for a few years.  Everyone has great hope for guys like Barton but he projects to be a Sean Casey/Scott Hatteberg type (decent average, little power) with below-average defense for 1B.  Suzuki is an inetresting catching prospect but no sure thing.  Herrera is a toolsy OF but we reminds me an awful lot of another toolsy OF proposect - Mario Encarnacion.  The starting pitching at the upper levels is putrid, guys projecting as 6th start-types (Windsor, Komine).  There are a few intriguing RP's prospects but it is such a crap shoot on how these minor league RP's project to the majors (see Luis Vizcaino, Franklyn German, Sergio Castillo, Chad Harville, Joe Valentine, Royce Ring, David Aardsma, etc.).  I won't even get to IF's because there are no real prospects to mention - Gregori Petit, please.  The only way to compensate for this dearth of young talent is to either spend big $$ on FA's or trade proven big club talent for can't miss prospects.  The team is at a crossroads right now so it will be interesting to see how Beane and Co. respond.

Right now to me Buck is the only player who looks like a sure success in the majors but not a star.

Maybe
290 avg , 350 obp , 18 hr , 30 doubles type of hitter with solid defense. Maybe Mark Kostay type?

Besides that we look horrible and instead of signing scrubs and trying to compete why not retool and make a run next year or the year after.

Im sorry if you could trade Harden , Haren , Blanton , Street , Chavez , Crosby for players like Delmon Young , Carlos Gonzalez , Lastings Milledge , Jose Tabata , Mike Pelfrey , Carlos Quentin you have done your job.

By no way is that an actual trade. I just wanted to give an example of the type of players you could recieve.

can stimulate this much chatter on AN, (an I really liked Kirk and his versatility--good guy also), imagine if one of the front-liners is traded. Out of all the guys you mentioned Louis, it's the Miguel Tejada loss that still really sticks in my craw. I still don't know,( and believe me I know and heard all the reasons and arguements,) of why Tejada was lost in such a cavalier manner. Like I say, no one needs to go back in history and educate me on the why's and how's o it all. He was just a super player and special personality. It'd be like if the A's got rid of Rickey sooner than they had to.

I draw the line with the following players, reasoning explained:

1. Rich Harden, Mainly because he is like a beacon of hope for the A's. Ok, so maybe that was more true back in the day, but nonetheless his potential is all still in place and the results are not. Trading him would be to assume that he will never reach that potential, and that is not a view I am willing to live by.
2. Dan Haren, Similar reasoning to Harden, his best days are still to follow and he is an exciting player to watch, always appearing collected and engaged. Trading Haren could be very beneficial for the future of the organization, but seeing as we can still easily win now, I would not be willing to accept the immediate sacrifice.
3. Eric Chavez, I'm not as passionate as I used to be about Chavez mainly because his offense just isn't that great, but we can't trade the guy until he at least gives us one REALLY good season, and if he gives us that, we CANT trade him....so yeah.
4. Nick the Swish, he's cheap, he's disciplined, he is a groovy fellah, and he had a breakout season and looks hungry for more. He is our Moneyballer offensive weapon of the future and he adds identity to the organization for that and for other obvious swisherisms.
5. Mark Ellis, simply because we as A's fans, well some of us anyway, believe that he is much better than his stats of last year indicate. He is a defensive king, he is cheap because....well he hasnt been that great, but if you look at his splits there is just so much to like, a little pop, a tough AB, and blazing 2nd half numbers in his last two seasons. Id much rather have a guy start slow and take the momentum into the playoffs, its just too bad for us that Ellis got hurt when he did, you never know how things could have been different.
6. Bobby Crosby, simply because if he ever does put it together on the field day-in and day-out then it has to be as an Oakland A, then Ill have no problem trading the guy, make the hurting stop!

Beyond that, we can trade anyone else, it hurts to see people go, but trust in Beane.

Trading Huston street might not be such a bad idea, we will call him Billy Koch 2.0.

Might as well have "Stand" Pat Gillick the way Billy is makin moves this offseason. Cisco field is gonna cost a lot of money. They made sure and anounced that. How about spending some on a real team this year. Lew wolf in italians suit is a greedy peice of shit. Close another deck and bargain bin me again.
I love the A's until "of fremont" happens but this offseason  is pretty stupid so far and all ive seen billy beane do is watch people leave with no one to replace their production.

Prior to the Saarloos trade we had lost one pitcher, Zito, and added one pitcher, Embree.

In terms of roles we replaced Zito with Kennedy and replaced Kenndedy with Embree. But for shorthand "replaced Zito with Embree" seemed close enough to me to describe the net effect.

Now, though, we've replaced Zito and Saarloos with Embree and a whole lot of question marks.

I really, really hope there's another move in the works to improve the 2007 roster.

...but I am inclined to think that the smarter move might be to wait until the deadline.

I definitely understand the frustration with the idea of taking the current squad all the way into Opening Day after watching Zito, Payton and especially Thomas carry the team into the playoffs and then chase the money to teams that may never give them the opportunity to even smell the postseason for the rest of their careers. Nevertheless, this is indeed a team of question marks and waiting to see how they pan out might be better for the future of the team.

If many of us were looking at this being our squad for 2007 two years ago, many might have felt a bit more optimistic, but the tragedy of this team is the injuries. This is the year that many of the younger injury prone players (Harden, Crosby, Bradley, Ellis) prove whether they are victims of fluky bad luck or whether they are indeed newer versions of Wood, Garciaparra, Matos and Hardy.

It seems too early to be convinced that those 4 are finished. But if they are, we're not going to the playoffs no matter what kind of magic BB can pull out of a limited budget. I do think that letting go of Payton and Saarloos' (and Zito) contracts while not matching Toronto's offer for Thomas  may just be a way to make sure that there is a little money for someone to come in in July if we have a clear need.

Right now we have no clear need. Our bullpen should be outstanding no matter what, even without Saarloos. If healthy our rotation could kick ass. If healthy, our offense could be better than last year if Kotsay, Crosby and Ellis can hit their fair .280 and Chavez bounces back and joins Swisher and Piazza in hitting in the neighborhood of 30 dingers. Then you've got Kendall and Bradley hopefully hitting close to .300. Maybe Perez hits his weight and gives Chavez some days of rest when his tendinitis flares up or he goes out for Canadian sea fare. Scutaro can fill in for a week when Crosby gets suspended for punching Cano in the face for that cheap spike of the hand and Melheus can fill in when the Kendall vs. Lackey rematch happens. Then all we need is either Johnson or Durazo to come up sufficient and we have a winner. Obviously, this is quite a rosy view of the world, but it is the optimistic view many of us had last year, and I think it is still within the realm of possibility.

Now, if the worst of the worst happens: Chavy, Bradley, Ellis, Harden, Duke, Street, Kennedy, Loiza and Kotsay go down with injuries again, Neither Johnson, Durazo or Buck/Kielty can swing a decent bat and we're hobbling through June 15 games out of 1st with a rotation of Haren, Blanton, Windsor, Komine and Halsey and our lineup looks like this:

Kendall
Rouse
Piazza
Swisher
Kielty
Scutaro
Perez
Bocachica
Johnson

Then obviously we are screwed and should really think about trading some serious pieces and rebuilding a la Marlins. If meanwhile the Mets are still on pace to score 800+ runs but are behind the Phillies and can't put a starter on the mound two days in a row that can get through the 6th without allowing 7 runs, I would think they would be willing to give up a whole lot more than Milledge for a guy like Blanton.

Sorry, this is a really long-winded way of saying that I think Beane might realize that the trading value of our pieces will be clearer (and more exploitable) after a few months of play. Because we could be really good, and have a desperate need for someone to fill an outfield spot or a 5th starter spot who is only slightly above average, or we could be really awful and banged up and have a desperate need to radically change course. I personally feel comfortable standing pat right now and waiting to see which one.

1998. 74 (9 wins better than previous year)
      
1999. 87
      
2000. 91
      
2001. 102
      
2002. 103
      
2003. 96
      
2004. 91
      
2005. 88
      
2006. 93 (and three more in thet playoffs!)

To answer your question, I do think the A's have a pretty good plan. That being said, the 2007 A's probably won't be that great. But I honestly don't know what else Billy could have done. Even if you are the best GM in the game, you can't compete year in and year out with a below average payroll. I'm not super excited about 07 either, but we have to do the same thing Billy's doing: pray that Bobby Crosby, Rich Harden, Mark Ellis, and Dan Johnson are healthy and productive without blowing up the franchise if they aren't.

The A's have been successful because they've been lucky and they're the best team in the game. You can't expect to come up with Giambi, Hudson, Mulder, Zito, Tejada, and Chavez every five years, and the Matt Stairses of the world aren't the bargains they used to be. The fact is, the A's have gotten lucky, with the draft from the late 90s to 2003, and last year by winning the division despite a so-so run differential. I think Beane is a tremendous GM, but now with some recent bounces (04-05 drafts, Dan Meyer, Chavez, Crosby) going the other way, it's going to be a lot harder to have success.

what makes everyone think someone major is leaving. We all knew Zito was (we've known that for years). Aside from rumors, nobody else has left.

The way I see it, if Blanton leaves, it would be for someone like Lastings Milledge (I still have faith Beane wouldn't do it for less), and if so I think the A's come out on top of that deal.

This is a weird offseason because the A's haven't really done much, but my feeling is that's the way it's going to stay. We're just going to have to watch the chips fall where they may come spring training.

I think you're being a little unfair RE: Tejada. Now that move certainly didn't work out. Tejada is signed to one of the best FA bargains of the last ten years, and Chavez's contract looks at best so-so. But at the time of the trade, Chavez was younger, had more defensive value, and got on base at a higher percentage with equal power. The A's had Crosby ready to inherit short, and no one really ready to inherit third. The choice to go after Chavez rather than Tejada, was, at the time, an obvious one. Obviously it didn't work out, but Beane played it right.

Stats 2001-2003
Tejada:

2001. Age 25 WARP3: 6.6
      
2002. 26, 8.5 (won MVP)
      
2003. 27, 6.0

Chavez:

2001. 23, 9.9
      
2002. 24, 7.1
      
2003. 25, 9.7  

For those of you who don't trust/know what WARP is, Chavez was better by all the other non-antiquated stats as well.

Had played 150 or more games in four straight years before signing his contract. It may have been prudent to at least talk to Tejada, but let's be honest: the end result would have been the same, and the A's only made that offer so A's fans would not turn on him when he left like they did Giambi.

If you can infer from several interviews and cliched quotes from press clippings that Tejada's personal makeup is "once in a generation," then congrats, you have a long and prosperous future as a scout, but I'm not convinced. Few people in Baltimore share your sentiment. Billy made the smartest decision he could have at the time, and it didn't work out. Not much more you can ask for.