FAtAlity
The A's were smacked down today. No question about it. There was literally nothing to good to say about the game as Zito got finished off like Subzero getting flamed by Scorpion in Mortal Kombat. Toasty!
Any way, this is just one of those games you have to say wasn't the A's day. It'd be different if it was a one-run loss and there was a key decision Macha made that wound up in a loss. If anything, it really should make us realize just how well both Loaiza and the bullpen pitched the past couple of nights. The Rangers offense is just deadly and showed it today.
Still if you step back and look at the big picture, the A's just finished a run through the AL West and their nearest competitors for a playoff spot and they finished 7-2. If they continue that pace against the West, there is no question that this team will wind up in the playoffs.
The saddest thing about all of this is that the A's were just starting to really pull away in the run differential column. Now, they're suddenly in the negative and people will point to that column as an indicator of the A's overall weakness again. Oh well. Sometimes you just have to say, well we were thoroughly dominated today, turn the page and look to the next series. Wait, what's that? The A's are facing the returning Scott Kazmir on Friday? Oh f$@#.
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We can come back and win this one today!
I'm actually surprised I wasn't there today
by Tyler Bleszinski on Aug 9, 2006 3:50 PM PDT up reply actions
Which is the exact reason why we're negitive in...
by gmoneymcg on Aug 10, 2006 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Drat
Poor Billy, at AN Day he said he especially hates it when they lose in front of a big crowd, and today they did so most decisively.
I opened a LAA/CLE diary...
"I'm your huckleberry." ~grover
obviously we need to play melhuse more!
I was at the game. Here are some of my thoughts:
- The field looked really clean-cut and polished. I hate the Raiders. RIP Field till' '07.
- Padilla would come to the set position really quickly, only to pause for an eternity before delivering the ball. I noticed 3 or 4 instances (to Ellis and Scoot) where they called time and it wasn't granted, but they stepped out anyway.
- 14-0 losses are worse watching on TV.
- The way the A's handled DeRosa was pitiful. I thought in the 5th, with 2nd and 3rd and one out they should have walked him. They could set up the DP and DeRosa hit a HR yesterday. Then, in the next inning, the A's walked Lee in a similar situation (he had hit a HR earlier), but then pitched to Derosa when he came up in the EXACT SAME SITUATION. And then he hit the ball off of the EXACT same sign in left. I just didn't understand the reason to walk Lee, btu not DeRosa either time.
- The A's seemed tired, didn't see much energy out of anyone from the start.
- I love the A's.
by jme on Aug 9, 2006 4:00 PM PDT reply actions
Oh yeah...
by jme on Aug 9, 2006 4:04 PM PDT up reply actions
4. All the Rangers are bitches.
4b.
by BobbyCrosbysGirl on Aug 9, 2006 4:31 PM PDT up reply actions
I was also at the game and would like to add
But very well said, you hit all the points I could think of. I was hoping Kotsay was gonna pitch the end, you know, REALLY stretch his back out.
by popcornjames on Aug 10, 2006 9:13 AM PDT up reply actions
It's always so nice
Signed,
Poor Relation
Some positives!
Yeah
by Tyler Bleszinski on Aug 9, 2006 5:21 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm not sure if the Angels could!
by A'sfansince1970 on Aug 9, 2006 5:25 PM PDT up reply actions
The left fielder for Cleveland just made
Zito really sucks at home and in the daytime.
Run differential
The only people run differential matters to is the guys at Baseball Prospectus. They use it and all those other numbers to compute our real record. With their numbers, Cleveland should have a better record than Minnesota. I'll bet that's real comforting to the Indians and their fans.
I am sick of the tyranny of run differential. People were using it a few weeks ago to justify blowing up the team. But the only record that matters is the won-loss record.
were you saying the same thing
Yeah, but in 2 games, the season opener, and today
by theblackpearl on Aug 9, 2006 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions
Your smugness is so convincing
My point was that if you've been watching the team for four months, you know all about it. You don't need to care about run differential. You know the flaws. You worry about the 4-5 starters. You worry about the offense. You cross your fingers about better health.
The nonsense of an excessive focus on run differential will be found in Baseball Prospectus' playoff projections tomorrow morning. Given what the Rangers did to us on the scoreboard, their projection will likely rise by 10%. But the truth is they gained a game--the same game we gained on the interference call the night before.
and what's more reliable
I can't hear you, xbx ...
A win is reliable
Look I get that it helps evaluate the quality of a team. But people focus on it way too much, and sit around talking about how "the A's aren't very good, look at their run differential." Who gives a shit? Look at their record.
And I know the team's flaws and strengths having watched them for four months. I won't be taught anything by their run differential.
And why don't you acknowledge that excessive focus on that misleading stat can lead people to undervalue a team they've been watching all season. That's why, in part, their were so many calls to dismantle the team at the trade deadline.
Finally, run differential would be a little more reliable if blowouts were somehow factored out a bit. Oh, but wait, blowouts are in part at the heart of extreme run differential.
you're missing the point
Good teams step on your throat -- and keep pushing until you stop breathing.
Mediocre teams let you get up off the canvas.
I agree, It's a very bad sign for the A's...
by Little Lebowski Urban Achievers on Aug 9, 2006 5:23 PM PDT up reply actions
I'll take Bad Anal Orgies for $100, Alex
Good teams don't "step on your throat -- and keep pushing until you stop breathing."
Good teams chase you into the water until you're stunned by an electrified fence, then chase you up a pole and keep clawing at you until they've got you in their jaws. Then they finish off the meal with a nice sprig of parsley and a buttermint.
an underwater electric fence?
well...
yeah, but the rangers don't have the best run differential, either.
how reliable is a 3 game lead over the angels (best run differential in our division) with 48 left to go?
Here, here!
Eh
I sat there and watched it on TV
by Colorado Fan on Aug 10, 2006 8:32 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm Glad You Brought up...
It's funny how a couple of statistics can lead many down a logical but not necessarily accurate path. The two this year that are thrown out there are this teams overall batting average which is discussed on a more national level for comparison with the A's competition and on the local blogosphere, the run differential.
All I will comment on, is that I will take the victory by 1 run performed repeatedly over the occasional 0-14 blow-out any week. Are these stats good indicators of trends? Possibly, but we still have to deal with the reality that when team BA is discussed (and usually the season's numbers are used) the average fan will not get the story of what has happened since the All-Star break. This is also true for run differential. The early season's numbers and today's result don't give an accurate picture as to how good our team has been since the All-Star break.
In our case, our 2nd half surge is as consistent as year's past. If the trend remains, then we shall probably see our team in the postseason playing the AL East contender in the first round.
Unless of course...
by gmoneymcg on Aug 10, 2006 3:48 PM PDT up reply actions
I just hope the guys forget today's game
by bzn5150 on Aug 9, 2006 4:18 PM PDT reply actions
Darn
ALL the guys get a little rest now. Kotsay can get healed up, Bradley can cool his head down a little, and we all know what Kendall does after too much time off! So I know Friday is going to be much better.
On another note: Is anyone listening to Extra Innings? I swear, I feel for Robert. If I was him, I would be reaching through the phone and smacking some of these callers. I have to say he does a great job with them! And thanks to the dude who just called in telling everyone to relax! My thoughts exactly!
by BobbyCrosbysGirl on Aug 9, 2006 4:24 PM PDT reply actions
re
Has our run differential ever been good?
Oddly enough
Hey, Friday is another game. Rest up and get ready.
BBTN
Kruk also mentioned that they continue to lose because they have no pitching; DUH!! Maybe Carlos Lee can come in and pitch a few relief innings.
He's such a putz!
by A'sfansince1970 on Aug 9, 2006 4:34 PM PDT up reply actions
I can hardly watch that show now--
by jme on Aug 9, 2006 4:36 PM PDT up reply actions
Karl Ravech?
by FormerHuntsvilleStar on Aug 9, 2006 6:24 PM PDT up reply actions
I concur
I say bring in Rickey Henderson. It would be awesome to watch Rickey give analysis while referring to himself in 3rd person like he used to.
"Rickey believes that the Tigers are headed for a downward slide because Rickey doesn't see their bullpen holding up all year."
In Kruk's defense ... <shudder> ...
Two, he made a really good comment last night about Liriano, saying that the Twins should just shut him down, because young players are prone to prevaricate about their health <cough>Mulder<cough>Meyer<cough>Harden<cough>.
Or Kruk might add that...
But then again, Kruk was a pretty one-dimensional player, a hitter and little else. So it makes a little sense that he would overvalue the Rangers, a team made up of guys like him.
BBTN
I'm really kind of checking out of ESPN these days unless there is a game on I'm interested in. That network is really lucky they have all the leagues contracts these days otherwise I'd have no reason to check in. .
by Tyler Bleszinski on Aug 9, 2006 5:25 PM PDT up reply actions
I'll second that
by rubin sierra on Aug 10, 2006 3:09 AM PDT up reply actions
Any word on Witasick...
according to David Forst
Forst mentioned something about the shoes.
Juhn Kruk ...
i should also note
Runs?
It was a little warm today, but still a beautiful day for baseball. The crowd was over 30,000 strong, with a ton of kids there. I got to see a C-130 fly over the stadium, and there was no crowd when I drove out of the parking lot in the 7th inning. Considering the score, I'm still in a good mood right now.
The A's have a REAL off day tomorrow (instead of a travel day). I say they should roll out of bed around 11:00, go straight to the golf course, and forget about today. Kotsay should be back (no pun intended), and Joe Kennedy should be ready any time now.
P.S.: Anyone notice on Lookout Landing and Lone Star Ball that after Sunday's win and yesterday's win, the A's just caused TWO fanbases to throw in the towel in the span of 3 days? In early August, no less. I'd call that a successful start to the month.
by Flyin As on Aug 9, 2006 4:37 PM PDT reply actions
Not our day
Hopefully the Indians take out the Angels tonight and we will remain 3 up on them and 5.5 on the Rangers and Mariners.
I agree that there was just no energy today, and that happens but it can't happen too often during this time of year.
Hopefully our boys take the day off and regroup and take 2 of 3 from the Devil Rays and then do the same with the Mariners.
Go A's!
Gerard and RLangford ...
Why this is important is that it means we have a lousy chance (albeit a nonzero chance) of advancing in the playoffs, because we'll be facing the very teams that either blow us out or we can only beat by 1-2 runs.
Ignoring run differential at this point in the season is much like buying in to the "A-Rod only ever hits when his team is hopelessly behind or far ahead" nonargument.
The funny thing is
Also, taking another of your statements out of context, I enjoyed your assertion that ignoring run differential would be folly. From a predictor's standpoint it's common sense, but taken out of context (the way I prefer it) suggests that Macha should call a team meeting tomorrow and scold the boys thoroughly for their lousy RD. --This RD deficit has to stop, he should say. It's unacceptable! And don't tell me it doesn't matter! From this point on, we're going to have a new focus: We're going to score more runs than the teams we're playing! Do I make myself clear?!
by rubin sierra on Aug 10, 2006 3:40 AM PDT up reply actions
<snerk>
Swisher: "Cap, mah VORP is alluz up!"
There was one big positive
Regarding run differential, the A's mediocre ledger just tells me that they win most of their close games and lose most of the occasional blowouts--typical of a low-scoring team with a great bullpen. The A's record, not the run differential stat, is more accurate. After all, it has been 113 games, mostly with worse health than we can expect in the final 49. I think we have a pretty good sense that this is a better than .500 team.
More importantly
by rubin sierra on Aug 10, 2006 3:21 AM PDT up reply actions
I agree...
My feeling: it's okay to lose ugly once in a while. If they lost a hard fought game by one run today, that hangover could very well go into the day off and into Friday's game. The shock of that loss was already over by game's end yesterday, and they'll be ready for Kazmir.
by gmoneymcg on Aug 10, 2006 3:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Monkeyball, have you been watching the team?
And the A's haven't been getting blown out or winning by a little against the teams they're likely to face in the playoffs. They've been doing fine.
Look, whether it's New York or Detroit, we'll be an underdog. Run differential won't tell us how big of one. And regardless of run differential, we'll have a very good shot if we pitch well and hit well. We're certainly capable of beating any of these teams. Today's 14-0 loss didn't change that one iota.
Sounded harsher than I meant
none taken!
And, yes, you're right that a 0-14 run differential today being tacked on to our overall totals does not mean that the team itself is somehow worse after today than it was yesterday. I should have clarified that a one-game swing in RD -- along the lines of your argument that one win = one win, regardless of score -- doesn't impact the overall picture. It's the aggregate, over a large total of games, that does.
Likewise, my making these arguments in the context of just getting our butts whipped isn't to say that today, and not in the previous 10 games, we played to our level.
As I've maintained all season long, I think we're still the clear favorites, by a fairly comfortable margin, to take the division; I'm just not so confident about our chances in the playoffs.
And while there's certainly an argument to be made about the team's RD going north with everyone healthy, again, this fragile team is the one Beane assembled in the offseason, and any projections of our overall strength/quality/RD should include assuming a certain number of DL days/days with players at suboptimal performance due to health issues.
of course you are right
by china bob on Aug 9, 2006 5:06 PM PDT up reply actions
well considering how ugly the game was
by larrysgurl on Aug 9, 2006 5:03 PM PDT reply actions
Come join the Angels' thread!
"I'm your huckleberry." ~grover
Negative run differential implies...
It's very simple.
It's a meaningless stat in terms of what in terms of "tangability," but it clearly is an indicator that that the A's have an inefficient offence and have been very fortunate to be 10 games above .500, even though they give up more runs than they themselves score.
Overall, but it also means we win a lot of one run
by A'sfansince1970 on Aug 9, 2006 5:20 PM PDT up reply actions
Correction: It means they HAVE HAD an...
It does seem like way too much of a fantasy geek
by A'sfansince1970 on Aug 9, 2006 5:35 PM PDT up reply actions
Teams never make the playoff with a high Run Diff.
by Little Lebowski Urban Achievers on Aug 9, 2006 5:45 PM PDT up reply actions
Ellis still hustling to the end . . .
As noted by others, sh** happens once in a while, Texas CAN hit, and the A's did just go 7-2 against the division rivals. Perspective is everything.
. . . and for those Ellis detractors: after Uncle Miltie was excused from the contest, due to the outfielder shortage, Ellis had to move to first (with Swisher going to right field). With the score 14-0, on a foul pop Ellis streaked over and made a terrific sliding catch right in front of the Ranger dugout.
Did it change the outcome: no.
Will it show in the boxscore: not really.
Did it show hustle and heart, no matter what: hell, yes! GO A'S!!!!!!
by millbraeforAsfan on Aug 9, 2006 5:24 PM PDT reply actions
Haha...
by OaktownPower on Aug 10, 2006 9:00 AM PDT up reply actions
scorching hot loss...
by smithw5 on Aug 9, 2006 5:35 PM PDT reply actions
Off topic, but I recall AN calling for Juan Cruz
Hey, I see that...
We did, baby.
Funny, McFood!
by A'sfansince1970 on Aug 9, 2006 5:52 PM PDT up reply actions
Whoops, I posted in the wrong place
With the exception of last year's padres, there hasn't been a team since 2002 (as far back as I looked) with a negative run differential on today's date that has made the playoffs.
by Little Lebowski Urban Achievers on Aug 9, 2006 5:43 PM PDT reply actions
How many wins was Zito worth again?
I'm kidding of course, I am glad Z is with us for 6 more weeks + postseason.
angels vs tribe
14-0 games happen.
My other comment is...that i realize that that was the only losing game I have been to for the A's this year. Even though this was only the 8th game that I have attended this year.
Call me contrary
by DavidA on Aug 9, 2006 6:23 PM PDT reply actions
there's a story about billy koch and his family on
by larrysgurl on Aug 9, 2006 7:03 PM PDT reply actions
at least on the east coast
by larrysgurl on Aug 9, 2006 7:05 PM PDT up reply actions
From sidebar of
<hugs Miggy>
The A's would have just about the perfect team with Miguel Tejada at shortstop.
"I'm your huckleberry." ~grover
Maybe Miggy was just saying that
{stares at Jennifer}
Covered in glitter...
She needs an intervention.
Or an exercycle.
uh ...
Yes, that was a reference
BEEP BEEP!!!
(and the funny thing is... on page 5 of the google image search for "bus to hell," I spotted a familiar picture of Anthony Recker... LOL)
Oh, no, I caught that
run differential =
Playoff prediction against Detroit/NY/Boston (as a wise man once said: IT DOESN'T MATTER!!!)
game 1 Detroit 9-1
game 2 Oakland 3-2
game 3 Oakland 5-3
game 4 Detroit 10-2
game 5 Oakland 4-1
We had a bad day, it's over, it sucked...but the weather was great (at least in L.A.)
and we're still in 1st place by 3 games.
I LOVE THE MUTHAF#$%IN' OAKLAND A'S, BEYOTCH!!
btw...If I can take a 7 out of 9 but lose the 9th game by 10-15 runs via the shutout, where do I sign up
by Erik being Erik on Aug 9, 2006 7:16 PM PDT reply actions
that actually reminds me
Yeah, that game sucked.
by antigiants618 on Aug 9, 2006 7:37 PM PDT reply actions
actually, since my mom has
Hear, hear
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Aug 10, 2006 9:28 AM PDT up reply actions
That's what we all think, too.
I'd keep the ball and throw Tony onto the field.
We're on the same page, Mickey D!
I knew there was a reason I liked you!
No way!
nothing to do with anything
Anyone notice
So,
But of course, then I get on AN, and that delusion is gone. :)
I agree whiteshoes...
APPLEBEE'S?!
Ah, well. It's been nice knowing you...
Poppy........
IM4Oakgal, if you're alive,
Oh dear.
I see ...
by rubin sierra on Aug 10, 2006 3:17 AM PDT up reply actions
LOL
Only tee martoonis, occifer, I swear!
Kazmir vs. the A's
A's are smelling the finish...
I thought Saarloos had that duty...
by OaktownRajah on Aug 10, 2006 12:23 AM PDT up reply actions
Perhaps
And for the record, I would love to see Gaudin get a start. If only he could get those walks under control...
Let Gaudin to your life?
But is he Gaudin-ough?
I have a dumb rookie question
by athleticsgirl24 on Aug 9, 2006 11:34 PM PDT reply actions
run differential
there's a real simple explanation here
I always thought
by DavidA on Aug 10, 2006 8:43 AM PDT up reply actions
News:
Thanks, Jill.
Ron, the scene here is utter pandemonium!
"Jill, I'm standing here in the
Hello."
could you guys
In related news we go to
Hey! That was pillow talk!
"I'm your huckleberry." ~grover
by baseballgirl on Aug 10, 2006 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions
No, considering the source,
Dateline Fire Island:
Hot tip:
Jenna and Barbara?
Wait, so what difference does this run stuff make?
by athleticsgirl24 on Aug 10, 2006 7:46 PM PDT reply actions

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