I'm sorry AN
by grover on Jul 25, 2006 12:03 AM PDT
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PrintBut I don't Believe.
Not in this team, not this year.
The injuries, the underperformance by key contributors, the management decisions from the Front Office on down to the field level convince me that this team is not a contender. And it saddens me to say that, because I like most of you thought great things about this roster. I felt confident in predicting 95+ wins and a legitimate shot at a World Series title. I was confident that we were about to begin another 5-year run.
I'm not feeling that so much anymore.
I'm tired of waiting for Bobby Crosby.
I'm ready to see Barry Zito walk out the door.
I want to see new blood and a new approach. Aggressive, bold and feared by our opponents.
I propose a whole scale roster re-organization, with no player safe from scrutiny. Anyone can be moved if his replacement will make the team stronger. And if Billy Beane isn't up for this type of blood letting than he needs to be the first to go.
Because I'm telling you right now friends, this team does not have what it takes to win this year. Swisher is sick, Chavez and Harden are hurt and all we have left is Hope. Hope that Bradley can stay healthy, that Ellis can hit like he did last year and that Loaiza can turn things around. Hope that Blanton can shake off the mediocrity he's displayed for most of the season.
Hope is a powerful thing. It can produce miracles and I have been spectacularly wrong in the past.
But it scares me to think that the single greatest act that could boost the A's chances of getting into the playoffs is if Bill Stoneman and the Angels do nothing to better their team between now and July 31st. Think about that before you fill your heart up with Hope.
It's been said that the bravest thing Beane has ever done was to trade two of his Aces prior to the 2005 season. Maybe it was. But the times call for an even braver act now, Beane needs to run up the white flag even though he can still smell the stink of 1st place on his skin. This is not the A's year. And if a major overhaul is not performed now while the A's have the means to change then I don't see the A's year coming for some time.
That's not acceptable.
The time to act is now. It's time to rebuild the Oakland A's.
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i agree with you
by Mr Athletics on Jul 25, 2006 12:13 AM PDT reply actions
I'm not giving up
The A's won't be in 1st place when the regular season ends and the wild card isn't coming from the AL West.
yeah i know
by Mr Athletics on Jul 25, 2006 12:28 AM PDT up reply actions
But how long do you wait?
Barry Zito is the best trade chip Beane has. He's gone after this season, so if the A's don't have it this year then it only makes sense to get as much as you can for him. Maybe that's two draft picks next year. Or maybe it's a prospect or two that could help the ballclub much sooner.
You won't get diddly for Zito now.
Alternately, you play him to the end of his gig, you get two first round draft picks for him, and you retire his number in 2018.
Mark it.
All Oaktoon's yapping about blowing up the team is silliness and won't happen. The team, lest people forget, is still in a rebuilding phase, just like last year. The A's were hoping it would be a playoffs year, but not betting the farm on it. Next year, likely the same deal.
So suck it up, guys. You might just have to cope with that thing every team but the Yankees has had to deal with at one point over the last ten years (and some for the entire ten year span) - a season or two where the fun comes from individual victories and not a playoff birth.
Life goes on.
I disagree
Joining with Satan hasn't changed that.
And don't forget... 2 1st round picks are not gauranteed. Remember Miggy to Baltimore.
By the way, wouldn't 2004 and 2005 count as a couple seasons without a playoff birth?
You could look at it that way.
When you look at it that way, where we are in the standings is pretty darn great. Most rebuilds are 3-5 years in length, and some take decades.
Or...
I assume you did that a couple months ago.
This site has a lot of negative energy and I've been feeling the same energy at the bowl. It seems that the attitude of the whole fanbase is changing. It is depressing.
But then again, I saw this not too long ago and lived through it. Its a cycle. Seat fillers come and go.
by azagtooth on Jul 25, 2006 12:23 AM PDT reply actions
Know what?
Or Chavez will get better without going on the DL.
Harden will come back.
Loaiza will quit serving up batting practice.
Promise me any of these things and I'll start to feel better. Hell, tell me there's a better than 50/50 chance that any one of these prayers will be answered and I'll think playoffs.
But you can't do that, can you? Not honestly anyways.
good post
but teams play above their heads all the time. Teams can outperform their talent level for months, a championship run amount of time (88 Dodgers), or even for a full season (Tigers this year, Mariners in 2001, etc...)
The A's could easily win this thing, and even win a playoff series or more.
BUT, they are not good enough for that to be an expectation rather than a wild ass hope.
when a franchise starts looking at Jacque Jones
Good ideas, Grover. Needless to say, I second that emotion. It's time to shuffle the deck-- particularly in the left side of the infield.
You do realize
And dude, lower case "g" please. ;)
Yeah, I read something about that
Usually he's smarter than that.
Jones would be a horrible addition, and lucky us, we'd be stuck with him until 2008. He'd be a waste of time, money and resources.
Other than that, I think its a great idea! ;)
Ah! TV trivia!
Thus "jumping the shark".
Even worse...
by Mz K on Jul 25, 2006 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Happy Days
In the case of the A's, there's no question that we're in "shark" territory-- the only question is when did the slide truly set in?? Loaiza? Chavez/Crosby instead of Tejada? Rhodes/Redman/Kendall?? Ethier for Bradley?
Oh, get over it.
Anyone who would panic and blow up one of the youngest teams in the game, while they're still in first place, is nothing short of someone I'd hope to never see in a position of authority at a baseball team.
I understand you have a visceral need to be heard - every day - but you'd be well served to go look at your diaries from one month ago, when you were chewing out people for thinking this team was anything less than the second coming of Giambi.
Hasty haste.
Immediate results? Go watch football and take everyone else with you.
by azagtooth on Jul 25, 2006 12:37 AM PDT reply actions
Or the 2nd to last game
Maybe by July 31st this year.
Obviously you think I'm being an alarmist and you may be right. Yet all you do is ask for patience without telling me why I should do so. I've told you why I think the A's are in trouble and you've done nothing to allay my concerns. Sometimes you can be too patient and you miss out on your only chance.
Damnit, I don't want to be right!
But I think I am. And you haven't said anything to convince me otherwise.
Do what you want
by azagtooth on Jul 25, 2006 1:08 AM PDT reply actions
That's an outright lie
And use the "Reply" function will ya?
By the way
Ok
"Replay" function? Is that a WebTV option? I'm sorry, I use a PC.
by azagtooth on Jul 25, 2006 1:17 AM PDT reply actions
Boy, if I didn't know better, from the tone of
I'd think this team is in dead last and threatening to become the Royals/Pirates for the next 3-5 years. Yes, the results so far have been far under most expectations, whether due to injury / underperformance / 'mistakes' by Beane. But hey, we're in contention for the time being. And while I can't speak for the rest of the AN collective, 'contention' is acceptable to me, and it's certainly a level above mediocrity. And it's certainly better than being a fan in the aforementioned markets where they're probably looking forward to football preseason.
I wonder if we're the only first place (for now) team with any fans calling for a fire sale. Do we really need to be the '97 White Sox this year? (Maybe Beane can do a GnG Flag trade)Because if Lew really wanted to drive away fans, that would be a surefire way to do it. Keep in mind, it took the White Sox 3 years to win the division after that trade. If Beane is looking that far down the future at the expense of this or next year, I guarantee attendance will plummet like it did in the late 90s.
Of the several factors that help attendance, winning and a bond with the players on the team are important. If Beane tosses in the towel this year, that'd be tantamount to writing off attendance for the rest of the year. Likewise, with a fire sale, it'd be hard for the fans to root for the new players in such a short period of time. 'Wanna go to the A's game?' 'I dunno, I don't even know any of these new players' Like it or not, the A's are an extended family to AN, with its share of dysfunctionality. And as such, most of us wish the best of our current players, and even some former ones. It just seems so cold / callous to ask 'what have you done for us lately?' and toss family members to the curb. Loyalty to the players is just as integral to being an A's fan as loyalty to Beane, or the colors, as may be the case with the 'sky is falling' crowd.
Good news, bad news
The Bad: The A's are 3 games out of last place in the AL West. Boo!
I don't know what other fans are saying and I don't care. I'm only concerned about the the state of affairs surrounding the team I love, and that state is one of disarray. This team is struggling.
What do you think the attendance is going to be like when the A's fall short of the playoffs for a 3rd straight year, then lose Barry Zito to free agency? I don't seee it improving from its already dismal numbers. A hit in attendance is inevitable, therefore it makes no sense to worry about losing another 10,000 ticket sales when trying to game plan for the future.
That's what I'm talking about here, the future of A's baseball. The 2007 roster looks awfully weak to me and the farm system is going to need a couple more years to produce the next wave.
The only arguements I'm hearing are all based on Hope. How come I can't get anyone to come up with a more substantial counter?
OH MY GOD
by splatbronson on Jul 25, 2006 1:27 AM PDT reply actions
Actually, I don't think grover and Oaktoon hate
Nice analysis
Some for butts
Some that love the A's regardless of day-year-decade.
Go A's!
by Billy Ball 2005 on Jul 25, 2006 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions
I occasionally have a gimp
If you'd like to present an intelligent arguement in opposition to my position I'd be more than willing to wipe the floor with you.
I remember the May 05 discussions too, and in case you don't remember I was one of the voices advocating parience and foretelling improvement ahead. Consider that before you scoff at me again.
Ah, some true A's fans at last.
by azagtooth on Jul 25, 2006 1:32 AM PDT reply actions
Well...
by azagtooth on Jul 25, 2006 1:36 AM PDT reply actions
While you're asking 'what is that'...
Try clicking it, see what happens.
Ooohh, your reply follows the message you're replying to! FUN! And not nearly as confusing as watching you reply to unknown messages all the way down the page.
I'm feeling a little more optimistic than most
Then, most key is the match ups. We play against each other 7 times, so that's a wash for both teams. We both play Bal, Bos, and Tor three times each - so that balances fairly evenly. Then the differences in the scheduling....they play Cws one more time than us, Det three more times, Nyy seven more times, and Tex 4 more times. That's offset by us playing Cle one more time than them, Kc two more times, Min 3 more times, Sea two more times, and Tb six more times.
As you can tell from the scheduling, the Angels probably need at least a five game lead on us after our series versus each other to start August for them to feel in good shape. But at the moment, I don't see them stretching a lead over us in the division by that much by that time. Looking at the broad picture, where the A's are now in the standings makes me feel very good for our chances of making the playoffs.
By the way
It ain't over
Still a lot of season left. Too many intangibles. Can't give up hope in July my friends.
by bzn5150 on Jul 25, 2006 5:14 AM PDT reply actions
Interesting dilemma...
I've also seen Beane as a bit of a gambler. Not a crazy fiend gambler but a gambler nevertheless. Is this 1998 again where Beane goes to his core players to justify trading their best closer to the Mets? I say yes. And this is the gamble.
Adding players would be stupid (pleaazzze- Jones? Casey? Give me a f'ing break people). Standing pat would be worse. I say Beane gambles with trading some of his assests and by doing so gambles on; winning next yr, the core players he identifies as "the '07 team" come through and the players or assests he receives in return pan out.
I'd be OK with this...if that means anything.
I like the gambler metaphor
And thanks for the Recommendation.
there is no debate
first, what's the point of throwing it in? what, losing a few games to play some unknown prospects?
just have to get in somehow. you never know who wins in the playoffs. Dodgers 88, Reds 90, Marlins both times, Yankees 96, they weren't the best team in the playoffs
but you just never know.
there's nothing to be gained by waving the flag.
And I'm saying the A's aren't making it
If they aren't going to make it...
And my argument is this time, much like last year, is pretty banged up and underperforming at this point. They are already in first place (unlike last year), and if some of these players start playing they way they are capable of last year will be repeated.
It is easy to give up on them when they struggle, even if they are in first place. You and oaktooon are lame for taking the easy way out.
by splatbronson on Jul 25, 2006 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions
Let's look at your statement
Yeah, sure. And maybe that will happen after Chavez gets healthy. Unfortunately that won't happen until he goes on the DL. And if Blanton starts to pitch lights out, something he's only done once or twice all year. And Bradley stays healthy and keeps hitting. And Swisher can get over mono and food poisoning. Crosby's hit .154 through the month of July, maybe he can raise that a 100 points and be average. And Kotsay's back... almost forgot about that.
Meanwhile Zito cannot have another night like he had last night, Haren has to snap out of his funk and the bullpen has to mimic Dennis Eckersley for the next two months.
A lot to ask of a team that has mostly struggled for the past four months.
Chavez and Crosby were supposed to be cornerstones for the offense to build around and they are not pulling their share. Bradley and Thomas were supposed to put us over the top and now we're clinging desperately to them in hopes of staying afloat.
You think this is the easy way out? You think this is easy at all? I'll tell you what's lame... everything you've posted on this thread. The situation between this year and last year are completely different. There were four months still to play in 2005, there are only two more to go this year and the 2006 A's are weaker this year. What's worse, there is no next year for guys like Zito and Thomas, not in Oakland anyways.
But if you like our chances this year so much, I guess that doesn't matter.
I agree...
Granted, the A's are coming off a very tough part of the schedule and it's easy to start feeling hopeless...
...but...
It's not just this part of the schedule where they've been underperforming. It's bad enough that there have been so many injuries to key players, and key players who are playing while they're hurt to a degree that they've become mostly ineffective <cough>Chavy<cough>... but most guys are simply not getting their offensive job done when they're relatively healthy, either.
We're in "first place" (actually tied with Anaheim now), but so frickin' what?! Getting to the playoffs is kind of pointless if you can't compete with the other teams that also get there. Our team, fantastic on paper, has been inconsistent and mediocre on the field, and not only "through this stretch of tough opponents," and not only because of injuries. Sure, I have hope that they'll turn their offensive crap around, but I'm not going to call my hope "reality" or "knowledge." It's hope. It's a pretty strong hope, actually, I'd even still call it "optimism" at this point... but it's basically just hope.
No explosions here....
As I did in your trade idea diary, I once again agree grover. This IS a flawed team. Start with the pitching staff. BB built the bullpen from the back, which is exceptionally strong, possibly the best in all of baseball. However, the rotation has been very inconsistent and the long relief has been spotty. Street, Duke, and Calero have the ability to lock down a game after the 6th inning, it's those first 6 innings that are a struggle most of the time.
The offense has suffered many injuries, and that's a huge problem. But when two starting OF's are almost guaranteed to miss time(Kotsay and Bradley), your 3B should have had offseason surgery for his throwing shoulder but didn't, your best offensive player is a 38 year old DH who can't get to 2B on a ball misplayed by Manny Ramirez(series in Boston)and who is one quick movement away from the DL, not to mention Crosby's minor injuries and Ellis missing time, this is a problem.
I don't see this as a run of bad luck, Kotsay and Bradley have injury histories, as do Big Frank and Ellis. Crosby seems to be perpetually unlucky, not only injuring himself mulitiple times, but taking Ellis out for a whole year.
I understand with a somewhat low budget, you have to take risks on certain players hoping they produce. However, it seems that has become the rule, not the exception to it. Sure, maybe BB thought Ethier played over his head last year, and wouldn't be a solid MLB regular. But what is different about Ethier from Travis Buck? I see them as very similar players, and Buck has a future here. While Ethier doesn't have the 25-30 HR potential you want from a corner OF, I'd take him hitting .290/.345/.500 any day with loads of 2B's and playing 160 games a year.
It's time to shake things up. Trade Zito, Payton, Chavy, Crosby, anyone. Don't be afraid to lose some bandwagon fans or people who only have attachment to players. Those of us who suffered through the lean mid 90's and remained fans will still be here. Rebuild, restructure, and improve the team we love.
Crosby and Ellis
btw, if Ellis' one injury makes him someone with an "injury history," then every player has an "injury history"... LOL (yes, it was a major injury, but he's had no aftereffects from it... knock wood...)
Technically, Ellis did also miss a month on the DL
Yes, you're right...
Here's the thing....
I understand the desire to start from scratch. But the division is so weak anything can truly happen. Anaheim- I think we can all agree, is our biggest competition- is giving up more errors than anyone in the league. You can't be a championship team and do that. Their offense has been on the thin side, too. And chances are, the Angels won't part with any of thier precious minor league talent to make the big deal needed to give them a boost in offense. Now if they got Soriano, I'd say game over and let's all just agree never to talk about this year again. But I really don't know that they'll do anything. They had the chance to get Tejada, but balked.
So where does that leave us? With an opportunity. We should trade Zito- he only has about 13 starts left anyways. Even the most polyana of us has to realize we should sieze this opportunity. We should get Milledge while we have the chance. Who knows how many of those remaining starts from Zito would translate into wins? At least we know we'd have a solid player for the forseeable future in Milledge. We should also go out and rent a player like Carlos Lee, if available. If that means giving up a top prospect and a medium one, so be it. A lineup of Bradley, Lee, Thomas, Swisher (and maybe a rejuvinated Dan Johnson) looks pretty good to me. The run production would almost certainly go up- maybe enough to get Haren some wins or keep us in games Loaiza pitches. Then we should get a veteran like Maddux to finish out the season. I know nobody is in love with him- neither am I- but he has stretch run and post season experience that could help tremendously. He probably wouldn't cost much more than Jairo Garcia and a bag of Stomper's peanuts.
I think we need to have a mixture of buying and selling this year. Because the fact of the matter is, we are in first place. And despite the surges the Angels have had, and the hard teams we've played the last week, we're still tied for first. And we still have a shot.
by Floridafan on Jul 25, 2006 7:38 AM PDT reply actions
I'm not quite ready to jump ship
I'm not saying we're going all the way. I just think that it's not time to say, "This team sucks. Get rid of all of them." I really don't think that's the way to get better.
Who's jumping ship?
Well
See, it's the middle of the year. BB is not going to have a fire sale now, and if he did, I don't think it would work at all. By the time these guys figure out how to play together and we get all the various prospects/players/deals worked out, we've already smashed into the iceberg.
He might try a fire sale in the offseason. I don't know, but I really don't think that's what needs to happen right now. Sure, I'm willing to shake the team up a bit, do a couple trades, get some new, good faces. But I don't think a complete overhaul is necessary. It doesn't seem to me that we are so horrible that everyone needs to go.
It's not a question of everyone being horrible
But realistically, a fire sale doesn't have to happen all at once. It can take place over a period of time. It's just that some moves need to happen sooner than others. Any deal involving Payton or Zito or Big Hurt obviously needs to happen soon. Trading one or more of the other core players (Crosby, Chavez, Swisher, etc.) should only happen when the right deal presents itself. That could happen tomorrow or it might not happen until December. It might never show itself. I'm not advocating change for the sake of change, I'm talking about change for the hope of improvement.
Agreed,
Go A's
Here's to a good bill of health in 2007.
by SwisherSweet33 on Jul 25, 2006 9:50 PM PDT up reply actions
Nice diary grover
In regards to a fire sale, I just don't think blowing up the roster is the way to go (at least right now). I don't think we should trade Zito, because frankly (at this late date) I am not sure we will get back someone better then the 2 1st round picks. I just don't think the Mets will deal Millidge for a Zito rental (they are still a bit gunshy after the Kazmir debacle).
Now, if we are "stuck" with Zito, why not just see what happens this season?. The only player that we could trade now for value (that we could not wait until the off-season to deal) is big Frank, and really how many teams will even need him? and with so few teams needing a DH, how much could we get? If we really want a chance to turn over the roster we need to let players like Ellis, Crosby, Loaiza, Bradley, Blanton, etc play more, hopefully have a decent month, and re-establish some value before a roster overhaul. And even if they don't do well, during the off-season teams will tend to look more at their overall numbers (and potential) rather then during the season when teams are more focused on "what are they doing now".
So, since it seems (to me) that we can get more trade value in the off-season, lets just ride it out and see what happens (and maybe Billy even adds a piece to help the stretch run - w/o giving up too much). Maybe grover, you should think of it as auditioning guys for the off-season overhaul, rather then making a run at the postseason (which you do not believe this team can do). That way, you will be able to feel positive about the games, rather then frustrated that we are not making moves.
Just my 2 cents, curious as to your thoughts.
Couple things
And according to Rosenthal the Mets are now willing to Millidge on the table.
Okay, so Zito aside
I think that pennant race or not, that if we get the right offer for Zito (ie Millidge and a pitcher -- Pelfry or Heilman) he will get dealt. The rest of the roster adjustments should wait until next year though.
Not everything needs to happen right now
Nobody has said
But this offseason i absolutely want Beane to take stock, decide who he's really willing to go to war with, and dispatch as many of the others as possible so we can get younger and, ultimately, better. the problem grover and I have with this team right now is that we don't see much dependable talent for the long haul, and you couldn't say that at any other point in the last 6 years.
realistic
i'm pretty pessimistic about our chances for this year myself. i think we "jumped the shark" on this season when harden went down and chavy's forearms went bonkers. if they are both healthy, i'm not as concerned... in fact, if that was the case, i'd be thinking "awesome, we're tied for first". rather than "aw, crap, we're tied for first". sure, the underperfoming gang are still concerns, but not ones that make me think our chances are really bad.
since those two guys are NOT healthy and some of the other players are indeed grossly underperforming, i agree with thinking ahead. next year doesn't look so promising. this is a team that has to keep thinking long-term or next think you know, we're rebuidling and hanging with the pirates. i'd be quite happy to see a bold move made that makes this season look a bit less hopeful, but the next few much more hopeful.
a team with our payroll constraints will always have "if's".. this year the major one was "if healthy" and well, we weren't/aren't. but next year there are a lot of "how's" or "who's" before even getting to the "if's". scary.
all of that said... GO A'S!!!!!
by Eric in Atlanta on Jul 25, 2006 9:04 AM PDT reply actions
as mediocre as the team's been this year ...
Frankly, though, with the cement-overshoe contracts of Kendall, Kotsay, and Loaiza, I'm not sure if Beane can keep the team afloat in '07 even with the bloodletting at the margins of the roster.
FWIW, though, I still think the A's -- barring a major upgrade of the Angels offense -- are the favorite to win the West this year; and I'm a firm believer that, while relative team strengths are strong determinants of playoff advancement, the playoffs (short series in particular) remain somewhat of a crapshoot.
"grovetoon"... <snerk>
I've thought about your
The real decisions need to be made on Crosby, Chavez, Blanton, and our entire bullpen, but mainly Street. There is little doubt that these players will be very valuable on the open trade market, due to perceived potential, perceived value, history of performance, etc. I do truly believe that BB has the pieces to overhaul this team, if he decides that is the route to take. Personally, I think it is. I believe the other option is to watch our "window" slowly close, and hopefully slowly reopen. Which to me is even more painful.
I think that that is what's been lost to some extent in this debate. It's ludicrous that people question oaktoon as a fan. My god, that is absurd. Since when does being critical or skeptical mean you're not a fan. Apathy is far worse. To me first place today is not real important, more important is a bright future, and right now, as things currently stand, I don't see that. I'd rather have a quick and painful "bloodletting" instead a slow spiralling into mediocrity and death. I hope that doesn't mean that I'm not an A's fan.
agreed
As with yourself, grover, and oaktoon, I'm not per se opposed to moving any particular players if we can upgrade the team for the medium and long term.
In any event, it could, as oaktoon implies, be a very interesting next 6-9 months.
Maybe we can dump some salary now...
Cap relief..?
Kendall contract
The issue of course is that Crosby, Haren, Harden, Ellis, Loaiza, are all due raises. Duke, Street, Swisher, Blanton, Halsey, Calero will also cost at least a bit more, depending on whether/how they buy out arb years for them.
I would agree with all of this
There are definite problems, definite choices must be made if we are not going to become the Royals starting in 2007. Trading Zito? I don't want Milledge, he is a showboat, a 5-tool showboat. That's why he is on the block now where before he was untouchable, the Mets have seen his act and are content to maybe let him go, unlike previously when he was their top prospect. If we are gonna trade Z we should do better than a talented but essentially unproven rookie who swaggers around the field like he owns the world.
I wanna see what happens tonight and tomorrow (and before the deadline) before I change my signature.
by emperor nobody on Jul 25, 2006 10:17 AM PDT reply actions
maybe Beane thinks swagger is undervalued ...
I'm sorry, grover
#1: The Schedule
The A's are in the toughest part of their schedule, and so far have done pretty well with it. The goal now would be to stay close, and so far so good. They're currently even with the Angels. The future schedule favors the A's greatly over the Angels. That said, it will still likely come down to the games with the Angels. I would guess that the A's could go 5-5 in those final 10 games against the Angels and win the division. So my first reason for not breaking up the team is that, given the opposition and the respective schedules, the A's have a very legitimate shot to win this division.
#2: The Playoffs
You then might say, "But the playoffs will be a debacle." Okay, first the A's have played well against their perspective opponents--teams that also have flaws (Detroit, inexperience; Boston and the Yankees and the White Sox, starting pitching; Minnesota, hitting.) I do think all those teams would be deservedly favored over the A's, but I think the A's would certainly have a very good shot.
And part of the reason, is #3: Rich Harden:
Harden is very likely coming back in August. Even if he returns as a reliever for the remainder of the season, they could certainly start him in the playoffs.
#4: The bullpen.
Our bullpen is excellent. It will only be better if Harden joins it in August. Of late the starting pitching has been a disaster (last four games), but that certainly won't continue. Zito and Haren are solid pitchers. Blanton is up and down, I know. As for Loaiza, I'd give him one more start, then, if he fails, replace him with Gaudin.
#5: The hitting.
It's realistic to believe the A's are going to hit better and score more in what remains of the season. The addition of Bradley (who you can't arbitrarily claim will be injured again) has been big. A bat very well could be added. (And I can understand why the A's would add Jaque Jones--not a favorite of mine either--to strengthen themselves against righties; he obviously replace Payton/Kielty against RHP, Payton likely dealt to Chicago or elsewhere.) I would think that Crosby and Ellis could not be worse. And, finally, I think that whether via the DL or simply time, Chavez could obviously not possibly be worse. So, I see the offense being better. Bradley alone has given me much more confidence we will score since the break.
So there it is, grover and others. I realize that this team is flawed. I realize that the arguments above aren't irrefutable. But they're certainly plausible. I think a big part of the problem this season is that this team, for so many reasons, has a really bad vibe; it's very tough to feel good or hopeful about this squad for the reasons we all know: Harden, Chavez, Crosby, Loaiza, injuries in general.
I get that.
But despite the uneasy feelings, despite the regular doses of bad news, despite even possibly falling out of first tonight, if you step back and look at what remains of the season, there doesn't seem to me a reason to dismantle the team. The A's have a legitimate shot to do something this season.
That's not based on blind hope. That's based on an objective look at the team, even during this particularly down time.
Point by point
- The schedule: Sorry, but with this team there is no soft part of the schedule. The A's have laid waste to teams they had no business beating and been trashed by teams that they should have handled with ease. I look at the schedule with neutral eyes.
- The playoffs: I don't think the current roster is playoff bound.
- Harden: The wild card. You say he'll be back in August, I must have missed that report while I was on assignment. All I know for certain is that he was supposed to be back by now and that hasn't happened.
- Bullpen: The bullpen has been great for the most part. but its not enough to overcome a weak offense and inconsistent starting pitching.
- Hitting: Based on the recent past, I'd say its a better bet that Bradley will hurt himself again instead of saying he'll stay healthy. I'll give you Ellis, but I think expecting Crosby to come through this year is a long wait for a train that ain't gonna come. Chavez is not going to get better until he gets some DL time. I think I know why that hasn't happened yet and it doesn't support your contention theory. And does Swisher have mono? This team needs a MASH unit.
Point by Point
- You can't dismiss the schedule.
- That's not an argument about potential playoff success.
- Doctor connected to the team told me this.
- We don't disagree
- The offense is a big wildcard for me. My point was that in the last two weeks there is reason to have hope--much more than before Bradley returned.
And we parry...
- I'm not dismissing the schedule. But this is a team that got their butts handed to them at home versus NL teams that they have traditionally dominated. They also went to NY and kicked ass. Neutral means neutral.
- If the A's don't make the playoffs then your "anyone can win" arguement doesn't amount for much. Or am I missing your point?
- Did the same doc tell you Rich would be back in July?
- Covered.
- Hope. 'Nuff said.
See below
- Saying the schedule is neutral isn't an argument. It goes against what any reasonable analysis would conclude. Do you really think the A's playing Detroit is equal to the A's playing Tampa Bay. Of course, you don't. Neither does anyone else.
- We're supposed to be arguing why the team should or shouldn't be dismantled. You can't say outright that a team currently tied for first in a weak division won't make the playoffs. You can't simply declare that and end the argument. Obviously, they have a plausible shot of winning the division. That's why I addressed the playoffs.
- No, he didn't tell me he'd be back in July. Rather than dismissing what I've been told, why don't you add something you actually know.
- Covered.
- You leap on the word "hope" like a child. I said "reason to hope." Does the word "reason" appeal to you more. And there is reason to expect improvement in the A's offense in the second half.
I hear what you're saying
See a pattern? I don't. I can't tell you who we can be expected to beat. Thus the schedule is neutral.
- "Anything can happen" is not much of an arguement. You're right, it can. But I'd say the odds would be against the A's if they reached the playoffs, and I don't think the "anything can happen" arguement matters because I don't see how this team makes the playoffs to begin with.
- Here's what I actually know. We were told Harden would be back pitching by now. He's not. Instead he had to go see Dr. Yokum about his elbow. If he can't throw bullpen sessions without pain I don't see a quick return in order.
- Pardon me, but have you any Grep Poupon?
- What reasons? Crosby hasn't done much since May. Maybe he's got another 3 week burst in him like he showed last year but that's not exactly the kind of rock solid gaurantee a team should hang its hat on. Swisher is hurting due to illness. I wouldn't trust either Payton or Kielty to continue like they have. Chavez is toast.
enjoyed both sides of this argument
by rubin sierra on Jul 26, 2006 1:03 PM PDT up reply actions
#5?
On that the good doctor was silent
Personally, I think he'll be DL'ed because his quotes and his body language the last few days are crying out for it. If anybody is bringing this team down right now, it seems to be Chavy.
I agree, RL
<shakes fist at grover's boss>
I got to go to a fire
<shakes fistful of money at fire>
I agree with all of your assessments...
I do think that something should be done to shake things up a bit, but not an overhaul... If the A's can make a trade for Maddux/Jones from the Cubs while not giving up much - I think that will pay large dividends on both the field and in the clubhouse. Bringing in a Jacques Jones (there are others that I would definitely rather have, but the cost for Jones/Maddux can;t be that high) could add life as I would expect the excitement that he would bring in entering a playoff race.
The Bullpen has been fantastic - and is a true weapon, especially if the can get through the first 5-6 innings. Adding a Maddux could help with both leadership, experience and saavy with the knowledge of how to utilize another of the A's plus categories - the defense.
I only care that the A's are in contention right now - and believe that the team should be priming themselves for September...
I wrote yesterday that everyone can acknowledge that this team has a tendency to run scorching hot, and bitterly cold. What's good about that is that they do have the ability to play above their heads - both individually and collectively.
They just need to be in position to get on one of those streaks come late Semptember going into October.
You don't have a chance if you're not in the dance. And this team definitely has the opportunity, and I genuinely like there chances to be in the race until the end. That is HOPE - not blind hope, but realistic hope. And if that's not apparent, than I think that the competition in the West is being overvalued... Here is to an exciting last 2 months where I HOPE the optimists are rewarded, the realists realizing that when there is hope (being tied for first place is a cause of that) there is a chance, and the pessimists all celebrating together come the end of this gut-wrenching, tumultuos season that has come to define the A's fans as much as the A's themselves...
Maddux?
In this case it tells the story well enough.
I'm not being pessimistic, I'm being realistic. I'm looking at life without Zito and Thomas in 2007 and comparing that to our chances this year and I'm saying the odds are long. It's a bad bet and we cannot afford to take the hit if we lose.
I was suggesting them because
Maddux could rise to the occasion - because he pitched well before the Cubbies were pretty much eliminated (about the end of April), and could dictate a better swan song for himself (playoffs). It was an idea to provide a little shakeup without doing the drastic that you are proposing... Will it work, maybe, who knows - One thing about Maddux is that he is a profeesor of the art of pitching, and can at least provide some guidance to the youth in the pitching ranks...
Maddux is a future HOFer
If Jones were a 2 month rental I'd be inclined to salivate in his direction. He's having a good year but his previous two weren't that great and I'm worried about being on the hook for two more years.
you need to understand
response Rick
2. "I do think all those teams would be deservedly favored over the A's, but I think the A's would certainly have a very good shot."-
subjective supposition
3."Harden is very likely coming back in August"-
subjective supposition
- "Our bullpen is excellent. It will only be better if Harden joins it in August"- subjective supposition
- "It's realistic to believe the A's are going to hit better and score more in what remains of the season." - one of the greatest subjective suppositions so far this year.
Everything is speculative
- You don't think the A's, who have played well against the teams named, would have a good shot at defeating them. How is saying that based on blind hope?
- Harden is likely coming back in August to the bullpen. Two people closely connected to the team have told me this: one a doctor and one in personnel.
- You don't think the bullpen is excellent? That is somehow subjective on my part? How blinded by your pessimism are you?
- The reason I believe they will hit better is that Milton Bradley is playing now. The reason is that I expect them to more approximate their career norms. Of course, that's speculative. Any comment on how they "will" hit must be. But it's not based on blind optimism.
Try to be a little more reasonable in assessing the team. The whole problem on the site right now is that so much of this isn't reasonable, so much a desperate need to prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that the team is doomed.
Careful
I'm truly interested to hear what you've got to say about Harden. When is he supposed to come back? And is he going to the bullpen as a short term move or for the rest of the season?
As to Bradley, I'm sorry but I'm not willing to base the A's playoff chances around a guy who has spent most of this season, as well as most of his career, on the DL.
Wasn't talking to you, grover
Not basing it solely on Bradley
RL
by bigelephant on Jul 25, 2006 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions
Have to (mostly) agree
Offensively Crosby is key, batting third he needs to threaten to fulfill the Gammons prediction that he will be an MVP candidate, putting up his first real Ripken-like year, .290, 25 HR, 100 RBI. Eric Chavez needs an MVP caliber year as well, finally reaching the 40 HR mark with 120 RBI and another Gold Glove. I'm not counting on Frank Thomas, lets say 150 AB and 10-12 HR. Mark Ellis won't hit .316, but he'll hit a solid .280. Milton Bradley could easily get to .315, 20 HR, 20 SB. Mark Kotsay needs to be around .290. Jason Kendall can approach a .400 OBP and continue to call great games for the staff. Dan Johnson needs to avoid a sophmore slump and provide a solid LH bat at 1B, say .265 with 25 HR and 85 RBI. Left field is iffy, Jay Payton and Nick Swisher may end up platooning, Swisher looks like a .230 hitter and Payton is a much better fielder than hitter. Guessing Swisher .235, 12 HR, Payton .250, 10 HR. Maybe matt watson will finally get a full time chance if Swisher and /or Payton falter. Overall the biggest keys are Harden, Blanton and Haren in the rotation and Chavez, Crosby and Bradley in the lineup. And, BTW, Street needs to remain a mystery to AL hitters--45 saves.
Retyping this and seeing again what I thought we needed really brings the fact home that we are in a weak division--which could be our biggest problem. If we were in the AL East we'd be in 4th place, 9.5 games back and if in the Central we'd be in 4th place, 16 games back. In the AL as a whole we're tied for 7th, 16 games back.
I am now convinced we should move Zito if we can get a decent return.
I also re-read Blez' interviews with Billy Beane and thought I'd share some choice tidbits:
Offseason interview, '06, on Loaiza:
Blez: What was appealing to you about adding Esteban Loaiza?
Beane: I'll tell you, this guy has had an interesting career. If you look at his whole career, you might turn your head a little bit. But if you look at his last three years, and more in particular, the two and half years, he's been one of the best pitchers in the game. He finished second for the Cy Young in Chicago a couple of years ago. He had an outstanding season in Washington and he was good in Chicago for a half season before he went to the Yankees. We just felt like here, he won't be required to be a number one starter. But his performance at times indicates that he can pitch at the top of the rotation. He provides innings, he strikes guys out and since he's developed that cut fastball in the last couple of years he's been a completely different guy.
And from January '05, just after the Hudson and Mulder trades:
Blez: You mentioned the makeup of this team, what do you think of this team going into spring training? Do you think it can compete in 2005 for the AL West title? I've read in many places that the belief is that you're looking forward towards 2006, but what about the team in 05?
BB: I'm not going to go on record and say what is going to happen just because it's not a good idea even if you're the New York Yankees. But anyone who knows me knows that I've never given away a game or an inning in my life as a general manager. I'm excited about 2005. I'm even more excited about 2006. Despite this being a very difficult winter with the departures, it has also been one where when I look around the diamond, I look at Chavy and he's back next year, I look at Crosby and he's back next year, I can look at second base, they're back. I can look at catcher, he's back, I can look at the outfield, they're back. I look at the five projected starters and they're probably around another five years. The fact that we've laid a foundation excites me.
great post steve
by bigelephant on Jul 25, 2006 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions
I think the first half of this post has it right
Ok, so I just made that last one up. Nobody loves Macha. But as for the rest:
- Do AN'ers still see BoCro as a budding superstar? Unfortunately, I don't. Maybe I'm too pessimistic. I'd love to hear from you guys.
- Joe Blanton? What the hell do we really have in Joe? His peripherals always scared me, but he made it work during the second half. He seems to have lost some velocity, rarely even touching 90. Is there hope? Maybe, it seems like he would do well with some increased flexibility, and dare I say, conditioning. I'm skeptical, though. Seems his ceiling is probably an average number 3.
- Fragile Rich? I'm still Bullish on Rich. I would not trade him. He's young with some of the best stuff in the league. I think you sink with this ship, if that's what it comes to. I hope not. I'm hopeful. Just not for this year.
- Loaiza? Wow. Stunningly bad. A lot of us didn't like it at the time, probably like it worse now. Looks like a $21 million whoops. Odd all around. Clearly not the best number 5 in the AL, needless to say.
- Our rotation? We've had some rough stretches. Overall, it's been okay, if not quite what we expected. Haren's been good early, and bad lately. Still looks like a pretty good number 2, fringe number 1.
- Chavez? Does anyone really know what we have here. Seems to have all the tools. Clearly he's hurt. But he hasn't really progressed that much as a pro, I think we've probably seen the best of Chavez, and it was the early part of this season. Which was very good, but he's not in the ARod, Miggy Cabrera, David Wright class. That's okay.
- Milton/Frank? When taken together, better than we could have expected. Problem is, they were the final pieces for this year. No real long term implications. Or am I wrong about that?
- Zito? At times brilliant, Cy Young Barry, FITZ, all of that. At times, well, last night, opening night, but that's Barry. I love him, he's my favorite A, and I'll miss him. But even when he's good, he's always made me nervous. This year, I'd say he's been a bit better than we would have wagered on.
What I've realized recently, is that we, collectively, get excited over extremely different things. I may say blow it up, bring in something fresh, give me hope. You may say, have faith, these are the guys we thought we could win it with, we just need to get healthy. Who's right? I don't know, probably neither. Where some see patience, others see complacency/apathy. What we all want to see is a damn World Series banner!
and those quotes
Perhaps...
I think you're absolutely right
Before the beginning of last season BB said that last year's team would be the worst A's team over the next 5 years. So far it appears that he was wrong. What's alarming for me is that we've been on a downward trend since the 2002 season. We won 103 games in 2002, 97 in 2003, 91 in 2004, and 88 in 2005. This year we're on pace to win less than 88 games. Anybody see a declining trend here? This trend indicates to me that maybe we have the wrong building blocks in place. And if that's the case isn't it about time for a change?
by oakfan2000 on Jul 25, 2006 3:34 PM PDT up reply actions
i think that once the angels take over first
by larrysgurl on Jul 25, 2006 3:58 PM PDT reply actions
What a boring read...
You want to blow up the A's, eh?
You haven't got a clue.
Just another frustrated fan thinking he as all the answers. I'm frustrated too. This team is boring as hell to watch, and they are showing no signs of improvement. It's part of being a fan, you take the good and bad, it's what makes the good that much sweeter.
Meh, how about the A's just trade for Joe Thornton?
Dork?
Which is about all your post was good for.
I may not be right in my opinion but i'm fairly confident that I have a clue, just like I'm confident your opinion on my cluelessness is in the minority.
A very tiny minority.
Do you love your wife?
Do you want to know that every morning I wake up next to the woman I love and who loves me back? That the moment she said, "I love you" to me for the first time is probably the exact moment of my life where I felt weakest? No, you don't, just like I couldn't care less about your personal situation.
Don't make this personal. I was just critisizing what I felt was a very thoughtless and reactionary diary, much in the manner of the master, Oaktoon.
by Pucking Insane on Jul 25, 2006 8:11 PM PDT up reply actions
You don't listen
As to the content of my diary... reactionary, yes. I see a problem and I respond. Pretty much defines reactionary.
Thoughtless? Yeah, sure. Like I said before... you're in a very tiny minority with that opinion. I can understand you not agreeing with me, I'm perfectly fine with that, its just disappointing that you don't have the skills to recognize the quality of a piece of work even if you disagree with the conclusions.
Why Chavez has not been placed on the DL
Any team expressing interest in Barry Zito has to overcome the hurdle of the A's being in 1st place. What contending team is going to want to get rid of its Ace? Barring a collapse in the next week Beane will still have "Contention" as a playing chip and as the July 31st cutoff gets closer his leverage in any deal will get better. It only makes sense for Beane to try and present the strongest hand possible and that's where Eric Chavez comes in.
Chavez should not be playing right now, but putting him on the DL would signal to interested GMs that the A's position as a Contender is weakening. The A's, even with a struggling Chavez, are perceived as being a stronger team than is actually warranted. The A's would probably be better off with Perez at 3B but the league perception would be otherwise, thereby lessening the burden of any team trying to pry Zito loose. Now that weakening of Beane's bargaining position would not be felt in the marquee name Beane gets in return for Zito. No, Barry is too good of a chip for that to happen. But it might have an impact on the 2nd player Beane would get and it certainly could be the difference between getting a Juan Cruz instead of a Kiko Calero as the 3rd player coming over in the deal.
So Eric Chavez is being run out onto the field to help maintain an illusion that Beane needs to drive up the price for Barry Zito.
At least that's the best reason I can come up with to explain why Eric Chavez is still in the line-up.
plausible
It also gibes with Beane's past behavior regarding positioning for deals.
Good thinking
Like the theory, though.
If you've got a better idea I'm all ears
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