Where have you gone Jeremy Giambi, Left Fielder?

dips is defense independant pitching

last year our dips era was 4.16 while our real era was 3.69 leading to a dips % of 1.13 which 3rd in all of the MLB behind the white sox (1.16) and St Louis (1.21).

I got this from ESPN and it says that the formula is not park independant.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?statType=pitching&group=9&seasonType=2&typ e=type4&sort=DIPSERA&split=0&season=2005

While it's great to see the A's climb the DefEff charts, their overall ranking (and the ranking of several of the leaders) is misleading.  We all know about park factors, and the factor that affects Oakland's stadium the most is that it increases the chance that a batted ball will be turned into an out (which is what DefEff measures).  The huge foul ground means that the A's get an inordinant number of infield pop-outs, which inflate their DefEff.  

BPro actually ahs a park factor for DefEff, and (not surprisingly) the stadiums that most inflate DefEff house the teams at the top of the 2001-2005 list (Seattle, Oakland, Dodgers).  So while the A's defense has certainly improved, it hasn't been as good as that ranking indicates.

As for DIPS and the A's, the A's are an ideal place for a pitcher like Saarloos.  He has low BB/SO, and HR rates, which means he allows a ton of balls in play.  Oakland has a very good defense and plays in a park that reduces BABIP--which makes BIP pitchers like Saarloos effective.  

There has been much talk over the years of the A's taking advantage of the factors by having their pitcher's "pitch to contact" instead of trying to strike guys out.  The evidence for this seemed to be the dropping strikeout rates of the Big 3--and their "pitching to contact" allowed them to throw fewer picthes and thus work deeper into games.  The A's didn't seem to have that strategy last season, as their pitching staff ranked second in the American League in strikeouts.

Finally, people shouldn't take Voros' claims too seriously.  His was a very important discovery in that most people never thought to separate pitcher only events (HR, BB, SO) from pitcher and defense events (balls in play).  Instead of ignoring a pitcher's BABIP, one should heavily regress it instead.  Pitchers like Zito clearly have an ability to reduce BABIP, and that skill is what makes Zito a good pitcher despite ordinary peripherals.

I think the part of the book that gets overlooked by most people is the subline "The art of winning at an unfair game."  That is what Billy Beane is great at, he'll build a team based on what the market will give him cheaply.  There are a lot of different ways to win at baseball, and as long as we have Beane running the team, the A's may win in a few other ways during his tenure.  Eventually maybe the A's will be a fast team that slaps at the ball and steals a bunch of bases because basestealers will become undervalued, who knows?

Some people believe its all about OBP yet, especially seeing what some writers are saying.  Looking at the article included in the Baseball Prospectus link makes me mad partially, but also glad people continue to think this way....keep doubting Billy Beane and we'll keep winning 90-100 games a year in various ways as the market allows.  Someday those people will see Moneyball isn't a bible and Billy Beane claiming himself to be the smartest man alive but an example of how a small market team took advantage of the undervalued to compete with big market teams for a few year period, a great model for business.  

I love Mark Ellis (my favorite player), but we shouldn't go overboard here.  I expect last year was a career year hitting, and he may drop a significant amount.  Good news is that he has room to drop and still be plenty good.  If he puts up 03 numbers, I'm happy.  If he puts up 03 numbers with an extra home run every month or two, I'm thrilled.

The only time off A'sball all year is when it's downhill ski time!!! The Sac Bee finally hi-lighted Daron Rahlves front page sports today and thank god, it's "Miller" er "Rhalves-Time"!

Nor Cal should root for little Daron on Sunday and watch a true warrior at the top of his game in a huge monied, international sport!

COME ON DARON! Then let's go A's next month.

I am going to emphasize that the drafting of high school pitchers is also related to to current status of the big league team.  If there was a need to start replacing pitchers in 2008 we would have seen college pitchers. But, the confluence of a starting rotation that aside from Zito is locked up through at least 2008 and the greater value in high school pitchers results in the luxury of picking a bunch of high school pitchers with the goal of gettting 2-3 to the bigs by 2009-2010.  This suggests that we may see another large number of high school pitchers in the 2006 draft.

In 20-20 hind sight I have to agree with some pundits.  Beane did get lucky in having 3 great pitchers develop all together in Hudson, Zito, and Mulder. As well as Chavez, Giambi, and Tejada coming up in a similar time frame.  The skill was in putting a good enough team together at the other positions while preparing the A's system to replace those parts in 2005 onward.  A lesser GM would have gotten lucky that one time and not been looking 3-4 years ahead about what to do when those home grown players become over priced for the team.  Instead, Beane has been preparing since 2001 to bring up new talent to replace the old. Now, it is Crosby, Swisher, Johnson, Harden, Ducscherer, Blanton. Street.  While keeping Chavez and Ellis and adding Haren.  And, Zito for at least one more year. Excluding Zito that is 10 good young players locked up for at least 3 years. In 2001 it was 6 and Giambi was not 3 years.  Which with the increase in budget since 2001 and the extra 4 good and as a group relatively inexpensive players means there is more money for a Kotsay, Kendall, and Bradley,  A bullpen; Calero, Kennedy, Witasick, Saarloos,  and a bench Payton, Kielty, Scutaro, and Perez.

And, at the same time Beane is setting up the system to provide bodies in 2009.  High School pitchers that can be developed by the A's system. Buck and Pennington may be needed in 2008-2009 for Kotsay and/or Ellis or Beane might decide to trade Crosby towards the end of his contract.

There are a slew of catchers which I am sure Beane is hoping for one of them to step up.  At a minimum Melhuse will be leaving soon and in 2008 Kendall may not take the pay cut Beane will offer.  Of course there will be trades as Beane takes advantage of opportunities, that could change everything.

I guess my point is that not only is Beane looking for bargains.  He is laying the ground work for 5 years from now while at the same time setting up a team that can win today.  While there are no guarantees players will pan out, if you are looking 5 years out you can draft 10 infielders, 20 pitchers, 10 outfielders, 4 catchers. In order to get the 2 infielders, 2 outfielders, 3 starters, 2 relievers, and 1 catcher to form the core of the big league team.