Spring Hopes Eternal, As Pitchers And Catchers Report

by Nico on Feb 18, 2006 10:35 AM PST in News Comment 57 comments

Billy Beane was up front about the A's 2005 team, saying the team would be talented and competitive, but acknowledging that "everything probably had to break right" for the A's to win the West. In a way, he was mistaken, because ultimately everything had to break wrong--or at least everything had to break--for the A's not to win the West in 2005.

2006 looks to be a 180 degree shift from 2005. Now it looks like everything has to break wrong for the A's not to win the West...but the team looks like it could get a lot of breaks this year, and not in a good way. The 2006 team has major injury questions going in, which the 2005 team, ironically, really didn't in comparison. The big question Mark was Ellis, and he was fine straight through from spring training to winter packing. Kotsay's back was no surprise, but key injuries to Crosby, Harden Durazo, and Dan Meyer were not anticipated, and problems for Chavez and Dotel were also not known about--at least publicly.

In contrast, the 2006 team goes in with "Gee I don't know"s hanging over Chavez' right shoulder, Harden's left shoulder and the body it connects to, Frank Thomas' "twice cooked pork" of a heel, plus Bradley's knee and the temperament it connects to, along with Kotsay's back and, of course, Crosby's karma.

So one year, health looks pretty good but expectations are moderate, and the A's fail due to a lack of health. The next year, expectations are high but the team on paper looks like it could be shredded, so...what to expect? I don't think a team with Perez at 3B, Scutaro at SS, Payton in CF, Kielty at DH, and Saarloos Glynning for Harden would win anywhere near 100 games, but I think a healthy A's team is as good a bet as any to win the division or short series in front of them. So as pitchers and catchers report today, so does the Team MVP if the A's win the World Series. His name is Larry Davis and here's hoping he has a "career year" in 2006.

0 recs | Comment 57 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Our luck would be

Kotsay slips in the shower and jacks his back, milton beats up macha for looking at him wrong and then franks foot falls off.

All on the first day :D

by Devyn on Feb 18, 2006 10:51 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Good thing about today...

Bobby Crosby cannot injure anyone today. :-P

"I knew when my career was over. In 1965 my baseball card came out with no picture." - Bob Uecker

by JLaff on Feb 18, 2006 11:06 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Milton beating up Macha is BAD?

We have the best subs (on paper) in a long time to go with our talented injury risks.

"If you throw at someone's head, it's very dangerous, because in the head is the brain." -- Pudge Rodriguez

by niallmack on Feb 18, 2006 11:07 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

The only way the A's

will truly have a great team on paper is if the paper is in fact a restraining order on Crosby.

by Nico on Feb 18, 2006 11:11 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

It's FINALLY here!!!!!!!

"Baseball is reassuring. It makes me feel as if the world is not going to blow up." -Sharon Olds

by AsGirl on Feb 18, 2006 11:26 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

however

I can't buy tickets! I live in Southern California with a girlfriend in Seattle, and none of the Angels, Mariners, or Padres have their tickets on sale yet. It's two more weeks for the former two and one more for San Diego.

Maybe this makes sense to an economist somewhere, but it seems strange to me that teams have fans all excited, but aren't willing to sell them tickets.

"Why do they call it the 'A's Replay'? It's always just 'The First Good Thing to Happen to the A's'". ~ArakSOT, 7/14/05

by rich on Feb 18, 2006 3:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

YEAH!!!!!!!!!!!!

12 days and 29 minutes until the first A's spring training game!!! WOO HOO!!!

There's no crying in baseball!

by gigglingone on Feb 18, 2006 11:35 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

yea h !!!!!!!!!!

I am wearing an A's jersey to mark this day!!!!!!!!1

YEAH!!11

Kendall Haiku by FormerHuntsvilleStar, " Ball in hand, a leap,--- a veteran catcher blocks--- and secures a win"

by Athletics fan and runner on Feb 18, 2006 11:41 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Come on...

The 2006 A's team is better equipped to deal with injury than any A's team in at least the past 5 or 6 years. We added players without subracting them...

Sure, it would probably not be great to have a starting lineup that featured Scutaro at SS, Kielty at DH, Payton in CF, Perez at 3B and Saarloos filling in for Harden.

But think about the alternatives...these guys are all major league veterans who can play adequate defense at their position and can surprise people with some solid plate appearences.

The ideal is always to have your best 10 guys (AL permitting) on the field at all times, but that's not always gonna happen. The 2006 A's bench is deep...

We did not necessarily need Loaiza, Bradley or Thomas, but we have them, and it makes us SO much stronger and deeper.

The injury bug will bite us...like it will bite every other team in the league, but we are equipped to handle those situations very well this year, and if Larry Davis says, "This guy cannot play today," I will not fear going to our bench...in the immortal words of Ken Macha, "There's no sense in having a deep bench if you don't use it."

by Taj Adib on Feb 18, 2006 11:45 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Agreed, and where

we can agree is that this team is equipped to handle an ordinary amount of injury, which previous A's teams haven't been equipped to do. So the A's should be in a great position barring an inordinate number of injuries (like they had in 2005). But the 2006 A's also have more legitimate risks for injury than usual, too. That complexity is the point of this post.

by Nico on Feb 18, 2006 11:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Doesn't it also seem

like the A's have had significant injury problems for the last couple years. It also seems like in every article about injury prevention, no one (Will Carroll, etc) ever mentions the A's as a team with a good philosophy in that department. I'm worried that the organization is weak in the athletic training and injury prevention area.

by Alien on Feb 18, 2006 11:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know about that

Chavez's shoulder is an ongoing thing until he gets surgery, not much the training staff can do about that. But other than Dotel, I can't think of a pitcher on the A's staff that has suffered a serious arm injury. Hudson's oblique, and Harden's similiar injury, are two of the most prominent issues the A's have had to face. Crosby had broken bones last year. Mulder broke his hip. Kotsay's back has been an issue since his pre-A's days.

The training staff seems to be able to patch guys up well enough to get them back on the field. Most of the injuries the A's have faced recently are injuries that no training staff could have prevented.

Why yes. I am a ray of Fucking sunshine.

by grover on Feb 18, 2006 11:59 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I hope you are right

by Alien on Feb 18, 2006 12:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Grover:

..is your byline REALLY necessary? Young people read AN, including some day Blez's one year old. Would you change it, please?

by doubleplayer on Feb 19, 2006 9:16 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Point Taken

Not that I was attacking your post Nico, but I just thought it was important to point out that this A's team is well prepared to deal with injury at key positions.

But I definately see your point about how this particular squad would NEED that extra depth and cushion because there are significant, long-standing injury risks at those key positions.

I think Larry Davis will not be able to keep the whole team healthy for the whole season, but he will definately earn his wage, and "MVP Honors" if he can find a way to avert a point where more than two of our starting 9 or 10 guys are on the disabled list for an extended amount of time.

by Taj Adib on Feb 18, 2006 9:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed, Taj.

If the A's can just stagger their injuries, they'll be fine. What I was aiming to highlight is that the only thing could really level the A's is something that would level any team: a truckload of injuries all at once. And how strange that this exact thing happened in 2005, when the health outlook was much more favorable.

by Nico on Feb 18, 2006 9:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Which raises the question...

Does Macha have any sense?

Why yes. I am a ray of Fucking sunshine.

by grover on Feb 18, 2006 11:54 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

right on, brother

i mean Nico, Moneyball and a bunch of other worry-warts are making it sound as if we need Florence hemingway as bench coach.

Thomas is going to miss a bunch of games-- in the vast majority of them Swish can move to 1B and DJ to dh;

Bradley and kotsay will almost certainly play less than 150 games-- that's where payton comes in;

Saarloos was in the upper half of production among AL starters last year-- it's a much smaller hit if Harden is out for any length of times than the options we had last year.

I don't see chavy, Crosby or ellis missing serious time-- but when they do need a rest or a few days off, perez is a real upgrade compared to the choices of the last couple of years.

and barton and Castilla wait in the wings.

Every team has injury issues-- the real achievement of this offseason was how well-prepared beane has made this team for the inevitable examples.

oaktoon

by oaktoon on Feb 18, 2006 2:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Nico

This is one of the most inspired, well-written things ever to appear on this site. I couldn't have said any of this better myself.

Bravo!

by Tyler Bleszinski on Feb 18, 2006 12:31 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Wow, thank you,

I actually did not expect that response. I was worried people were going to reply in the "Yeah, tell us something new" vein. But frankly, any post that follows one from Cindi is bound to look pretty inspired by comparison. :-)

by Nico on Feb 18, 2006 12:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Ditto

"...Saarloos Glynning for Harden..."

is brilliant.

by eamb on Feb 18, 2006 2:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I actually thought

it was unoriginal, repetitive (a slew of people have been saying this for weeks now) and overly pessimistic.

but what do i know??

oaktoon

by oaktoon on Feb 18, 2006 2:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

What do you know?

Everything, just ask you.

by Nico on Feb 18, 2006 3:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

just for the record

i made a legitimate criticism-- disagree if you like, but it was on the merits.

and then nico, you chose to make it personal.

put a little community guideline mark next to that one-- OK??

oaktoon

by oaktoon on Feb 18, 2006 3:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Boo Hoo

I too get the impression that you are a know-it-all personality. But every bar has one, or a few, of those.

"I'm more into going home and being horizontal" - Lew Wolff

by bvank on Feb 18, 2006 7:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

yes

Yeah Nico, I agree with Blez. Good job today.

As for yesterday's post about Cindi. Um...you're weird. :)

Thanks for working hard to make this a great site.

"Why do they call it the 'A's Replay'? It's always just 'The First Good Thing to Happen to the A's'". ~ArakSOT, 7/14/05

by rich on Feb 18, 2006 3:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks, rich;

kind words really are always appreciated. As for Cindi, you don't have to tell me she's a bit different. But she does the best she can. That's kind of the sad thing, really. :-}

by Nico on Feb 18, 2006 4:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

so here is

a question, what happens around here if the A's are .500 at the end of april?

by eastcoaster on Feb 18, 2006 12:53 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Around here,

a lot of people panic. In the A's front office, a lot of people shrug their shoulders and say, "It's a marathon, not a sprint."

If Harden, Thomas, and Kotsay are hurt, everyone panics for good reason.

by Nico on Feb 18, 2006 12:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

In the day....

of LaRussa/Haas A's LaRussa was fond to say the baseball season is like a triangle;
One side is the regular season,
one side is the Playoffs,
one side is the world Series.

You must win all three to truly be successful.
This year's A's can truly be successful.

With a 62 million payroll (my guess) to compete for it all as the A's now choose to do you know you are going into it with weaknesses.

The one unsettling weakness to me is Kendall. Since a prolonged visit to the DL will hurt the team pitching the last thing I want to see him doing is swinging from the heels trying to get 3-4 HRs and end up out 3-4 weeks over swings that missed.

Melhuse is good and just maybe good enough to fill in for a month but this season we need it all.

Swisher: "If we're healthy, we could be a monster."

by A s Eh on Feb 18, 2006 9:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Panic?

If they're .500 in June I'd panic, not after April, the A's usually start slow, then tear through the summer. It's almost a tradition, nto a good one, but a tradition. If Billy Beane sustains a concussion, then I'd be worried.

by Chavez4Prez on Feb 18, 2006 2:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

schedule

Bear in mind, though, that this April is different than Aprils of recent years. Whereas the A's used to begin the season with a 19-game A.L. West round-robin, we now face New York, Minnesota, Detroit, and Kansas City by April 30. To make up for it, there is one series against Texas, Seattle, and Anaheim each in April, and then one more in May.

Will this have an effect? I'm not sure, but it may be worth thinking about if this April is different of those in years past. For what it's worth, gone also are two straight weeks against powerful east coast teams, which didn't go well last May.

How's this for a statement: any abberation due to the schedule -- a tendency to start slowly, or a trend based on the teams we play -- will be gone by July 1. Comparing our record to those of past records on July 1 will really tell us something about this year's team.

"Why do they call it the 'A's Replay'? It's always just 'The First Good Thing to Happen to the A's'". ~ArakSOT, 7/14/05

by rich on Feb 18, 2006 3:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm looking for 600 ball basically the

entire season.

Small fluctuations but wire-to-wire.

Swisher: "If we're healthy, we could be a monster."

by A s Eh on Feb 18, 2006 9:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Fluctuation, schmuctuation

I'm looking for the A's to win exactly three games in each of the first 32 sets of five games, and I expect them to win 1.2 of the final 2 games.

by Nico on Feb 18, 2006 9:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

That is a variable worth considering

esp if the 1.2 wins come in the last 1.2 of world series games #6 & #7.

Swisher: "If we're healthy, we could be a monster."

by A s Eh on Feb 18, 2006 9:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

No, my calculations

only get us through the regular season. Obviously, we should win 3 of the 5 ALDS games, and then I hope to snatch 4.2 games in each of the next two series.

by Nico on Feb 18, 2006 9:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

But extra innings games trade statistical

superiorities for...
<major gasp>
..."luck"

Swisher: "If we're healthy, we could be a monster."

by A s Eh on Feb 18, 2006 9:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

excellent

Frank Thomas' "twice cooked pork" of a heel

Heh heh.

by Apricot on Feb 18, 2006 2:34 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Scutaro

I'd take Scooter over "wrecking ball" anyday.

by atomopawn on Feb 18, 2006 3:21 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Timely health

Or spreading the pain, as it were. If Larry can persuade the high mileage guys to only go down one at a time, this exciting A's roster can fill in without losing much. And JayPay, DJ, Frankie and Uncle Miltie will all get steaming healthy plates full of AB's. Like any team, losing several parts at once will be tough for the A's, living with the depth-for-fragility tradeoff of the bargain shopper.

I dunno...the shoulders of Chavez and Ellis and Harden, Thomas' ankle, Bradley's knee...I figure the A's will be OK so long as their joints hold out.

"Beane would suck TJ's face off a nickel, crap out pennies and collect `em to sweeten the next deal." --Stomper

by FreeSeatUpgrade on Feb 18, 2006 4:01 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

What's Up With This?

Go to Replacement Level Yankees Weblog, find the names in the top left corner under "Featuring," and click on John Brattain.

I supposed we should be flattered they're thinking about us.

by SportySpice on Feb 18, 2006 5:25 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Heh...

ChunkyLover53

by OaklandInvader on Feb 18, 2006 6:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm...

I guess it is kind of nice to fantasize about what it would look like if we acquired Chris Shelton.

by Nico on Feb 18, 2006 6:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm...

I'm thinking...

ChunkyLover53

by OaklandInvader on Feb 18, 2006 6:33 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I wonder if Larry Davis...

lists his fanny pack as a business expense on his taxes.

by southofcruiseamerica on Feb 18, 2006 8:00 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Why are professional trainers

always in such bad physical shape? Just wondering.

by Nico on Feb 18, 2006 9:20 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Here's how a hear it...

Davis: "Dude, do you wanna look like this!?"

Anyone: "Umm, like what?"

Davis: "Well, I've got a mullet, a pot-belly and a tye-dye shirt..."

Anyone: "Put me in coach!"

ChunkyLover53

by OaklandInvader on Feb 18, 2006 9:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Ah, so it's kind of like this:

Macha: Hustle, kid, 'cause if you slow down you'll become dull and generic. I once settled for a single and look at me.

Rookie: I'm stretching my next hit into a double!!!

by Nico on Feb 18, 2006 10:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Nico, I was going to say the same

thing in more specific terms but took it easy on the guy b/c he's been in the organization for so long that he must be doing something right...plus he was an All-Star in '96! Are there any other professions besides team athletic trainer and drug dealer in which fanny packs are acceptable?

by southofcruiseamerica on Feb 18, 2006 11:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

professional tourist

the uniform is rounded out with a bad bahama hat, clip on sunglasses, bermuda shorts, black or navy blue socks and teva type sandals.

Lou Brock was a great base stealer, but today, I am the greatest! - Rickey Henderson

by haren4prez on Feb 19, 2006 9:58 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't know

but he was the 2005 team MVP, if you know what I mean, let's quiet all these 'experts' and other people and let's play some 'beaneball' as we call it these days and win a playoff series for the first time since 1990.

The tragedy of life is not that it ends so soon, but that we wait so long to begin it.-W. M. Lewis

by doublehustle22 on Feb 18, 2006 9:56 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

This could be like that year in 1992 I think

when the A's made the playoffs despite having tons of injuries because they had such a deep bench. I like our bench for the first time in 10+ years.

The rotation has backups in Saarloos and Kennedy. Yes they are dropoffs, but they are serviceable major league starters.

I am also highly (and maybe overly) optimistic about Dan Meyer. He is evdiently healthy and I think he could be plugged in later down the line if Zito trade packages get juicy.

Two-thirds of the earth is covered by water, the other third is covered by Kotsay.

by carp on Feb 19, 2006 9:14 AM PST reply actions 0 recs