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Dan vs. Daric - To Be Settled In Phoenix

As an avid sports fan in the 90s, who could forget the infamous commercials featuring Dan and Dave, Reebok's attempt at marketing the Barcelona Olympics. Fast forward fourteen years, and we are on the cusp of a similar competition; the high stakes of the A's first baseman job, fought on the battlefield of Spring Training.

After having a conversation about fantasy baseball with another member of AN (and I promise I wasn't talking to myself--I'm not Cindi), I really began to mull over the idea of giving Barton a realistic chance of being on the 2007 team, and the early extra year as the A's first baseman.

Of course, this idea hinges on Dan Johnson being a known quantity, which may or may not actually be true. If we can assume that at his best, Johnson will only be an average first baseman (and based on last season, that may be a generous assessment), then he should be fairly easily replaced. However, there is the slight possibility (something that Beane has alluded to), that Johnson could be more than simply average; he could put up the slugging numbers commonly associated with his position, something the A's need to make up for the rest of their team, who all seem to hold nominations for the popular 'good defense, no offense' category.

However, if we're being realistic, there aren't too many signs that point to Dan Johnson being the player we need at that position, unless the famous dress rehearsal theory applies to dismal sophomore seasons and their subsequent years. As we well remember, for the majority of last year, Johnson inspired little confidence in his abilities to adjust to pitches, or really, even to make any contact except weak ground balls. I guess it's good that he stays healthy when he swings, though?

On the other hand, Daric Barton has long been a top prospect for the future, and as much as you can predict the success of a player from the minor leagues to the majors, he is considered a slam-dunk. Of course, this assessment can be taken with a grain of salt until he is actually major-league tried, but if we're weighing the upside of Daric against what we know about Dan, it makes less and less sense to dogmatically start the season with Dan if Daric puts up any kind of a challenge.

Spring Training is still months away; yet without another bat on the horizon, the A's need to start asking some questions:


  • Can Dan Johnson erase last season and recover his minor league title of "Player That Actually Can Hit The Ball More Than Once A Month"?
  • Will Daric Barton be a better hitter than Dan Johnson?
  • Will Daric Barton match the offensive production of Dan Johnson, and get an early start in the majors, an invaluable teaching lesson for a rookie poised to take over the position?
  • Will Daric Barton provide a little less offensive power than Dan Johnson, yet still get an extra year of experience in the majors to help the A's in 2008?
  • Is it even possible for Daric Barton to be that much worse than Dan Johnson?

Dan vs. Daric. To be settled in Phoenix. Could we, and should we, see an upset?

Poll
To Be Settled In Phoenix:
Dan
30 votes
Daric
29 votes

59 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 28 comments

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It would take a great spring training
by Daric to start with the big club, but I'd be surprised if he's not up by May 1 to replace DJ or someone else who is hurt.

I still think that if DJ puts up numbers like his rookie year that he will be able to hang onto the job for awhile at least.  Barton is too good of a player to keep in the minors anymore though.

Best case scenario is that both of them are doing well and hte A's are able to trade DJ to help another area

Goliath, dissatisfied with his size advantage, decided to buy David's sling, which took steroids.

by TexasAsfan on Dec 17, 2006 6:12 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

I agree
I think Daric starts in Sacramento no matter what.  And then if DJ struggles with the A's and tries to pull everything, the two could very quickly wind up switching places.

by Tyler Bleszinski on Dec 17, 2006 9:50 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Why did you have to point out...
that Spring Training is still months away.  NEED BOX SCORES NOW!
I'm not a big wine guy... Where do you grow the BEER?

by str8tarrow on Dec 17, 2006 6:20 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

great diary
I'd consider their bats nearly equal right now, but I think Daric needs to show he can play defense well in AAA before he moves up. After all, due to injury, he actually hasn't had many ABs in the A's system.

DJ will probably do okay in spring training, getting the job for opening day and a month or two of insurance. I think the A's would delay in promoting Daric even if it's the most obvious scenario (Daric excelling at AAA and Dan flirting with the Mendoza line in early June) and wait until July 1st. They never seem to take the season terribly seriously before that date anyway, and I think Daric's ideal scenario for getting the job next summer is unlikely to happen.

"The future's like, who cares?" ~Eric Chavez

by rebus on Dec 17, 2006 9:15 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Spring Training
I don't think that the A's take ST stats into much consideration viewing them as just a small sample size of data - especially for starting positions. They almost always have a good idea of where the players stand, even moreso for players who came up in their organization. I think their minds will be 95% made up by late Feb / early March.

Personally, I'd rather give Barton some time in AAA to learn to play 1B and to let him get some at bats in. Besides if he comes up after June 1 don't we have him for another year before he becomes a free agent?

by Larry E on Dec 17, 2006 9:35 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

I can't see him being any
worse than DJ...possible for sure.
rip 2006, it was nice while it lasted.

by ak_A on Dec 17, 2006 9:41 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

I agree that Barton is unlikely,
if thrown into the majors in April, to produce worse offensive numbers than DJ--his OBP would probably be solid no matter what and the "DJ standard" for batting average and slugging is not that high.

There is precedent for a rookie performing too well in spring training to be denied a spot--that's what happened with Huston Street. It's not about stats, it's just about how ready they look to perform against big league competition.

That all being said, barring a "he's the best hitter on the team right now" spring training scenario, I see Barton getting another 1/2 season in AAA--basically the 1/2 season he lost in 2006--to learn 1B, discover his doubles-HR power potential, and remain under contract control in that 2013 season I know we all have our eyes on at the moment.

It's difficult for a fan to hold the 2007 and 2013 seasons at the same time; it's Billy Beane's job to do so.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Dec 17, 2006 10:31 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Totally OT
I was reading this thread over at Primer and all of a sudden it occurred to me: we are so incredibly lucky to have a GM who -- despite his faults -- has given us a good-to-great team for many years in a row now.  Wow.  Merry Christmas to us.
Stat Wonk Futurist

by salb918 on Dec 17, 2006 11:14 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Keeping him
under contract control an extra year is the key.  If they play him all year this year, they are essentially trading what will likely be his worst year in the majors (until he gets old) for an extra year where he will  be in his prime.

Not only that, the very best we can hope from him production-wise next year is .290/.380 with no power.  He struggled in AAA last year, whereas DJ mashed.  I think DJ would probably have a better season than Barton next year, but even if that is wrong, Barton would have to be a significant upgrade in the first half to justify wasting a year of contract control.

by mikeA on Dec 17, 2006 11:30 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

I seem to remember a post last month
which suggested a cutoff point in June or July, after which a Barton callup would still preserve that extra year of team contract control.
"Ever get the feeling you've been cheated?" --Johnny Rotten

by FreeSeatUpgrade on Dec 17, 2006 11:40 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I doubt the A's are too worried,
because their philosophy appears to be that April-June is about finding your team and the real season doesn't really kick in until about July 1st anyway. So a couple months of .238 DJ, followed by a 1/2 season of Daric "DJ+" Barton, would not be ubershocking--because it would not appear to be uberconcerning to the A's brass.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Dec 17, 2006 12:21 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I'd give Barton every chance I could
to stay in Sacramento long enough to give us an extra year of team control.

I do worry that the 2006 version of Dan vs. Daric will be more like Dan vs. Dave than we'd like -- big hopes and expectations -- followed by one guy not making the team and the other guy having a disappointing performance.

My prediction:
Daric Barton
.260/.345/.400
Dan Johnson
.320/.430/.540 -- in Sacramento
after posting:
.240/.330/.380 -- through 40 games in Oakland.

I hope I'm wrong.

by devo on Dec 17, 2006 12:09 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Both are mediocre responses at this point
With Frank & JPay gone BB better add MLB proven power somewhere or write off the season. Daric's high obp doesn't drive in runs and Frank proved last year what difference that makes for a team with post season aspirations. Another year will help Barton's power and unproven defense. Piazza helps but he lacks the bat speed for 9th inning showdowns vs KRod or other power pitchers.

DJ & Swisher 1B stats for '06:
avg  obp  slg  ops  hr  2b
238  335  400  735  09  10  Johnson 316 PA vs RHP
238  340  416  756  14  09  Swisher 325 PA vs LHP

Both are surprisingly mediocre at 1B.

Swisher LF stats for '06:
271  401  579  980  21  15  Swisher 322 PA mostly vs RHP

Swisher becomes a masher in LF and his defense is quite acceptable with Kotsay or Bradley in CF. He replaces the outfield loss of JPay nicely and we end up with 3 fulltime OFers: Swisher, Kotsay, Bradley, and 4th OFer Kielty to give guys a break vs LHPs. This is a major league outfield.

GoGo Goleski went-went. His A's future is now unclear. The 5th outfielder can now be obtained or we upgrade 1B with a an experienced player capable of 1B, 3B, or OF.

I'll post more on this later...

by A s Eh on Dec 17, 2006 12:15 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Side note on Barton
With all the Olerud comparisons, I think it would be cool if he wore a helmet in the field (minus the precipitating head injury).

by mikeA on Dec 17, 2006 12:21 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I think Daric needs a full AAA year
Or something approaching that.  devo makes an excellent point that we could use an extra year of team control, plus DJ has almost 0 trade value after last season, so I'd at least like to see the front office wait until the All-Star Break to try something.  I'm way more interested in seeing that Alexis Rios is officially on the market, which could keep Swish at 1st if we wrangled a trade.  I guess we were in talks to trade Blanton, but Billy thinks we need him too much.  I'm inclined to agree... but still, I wouldn't have minded seeing that deal.
Zito: I would never bet against this team. First of all because it's against the rules...

by Joey C. on Dec 17, 2006 12:32 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I 100% would make it Barton
DJ will be better than last year and likely ok, but I see a very limited upside, especiallly for a corner IF spot.  I would much rather have Barton struggle a bit, but likely not be much worse than DJ and get a full year of seeing MLB pitching under his belt.  I believe it would be enormous for his development and make him a key cog for the squad in 08.  

I like going with the guy wth the most upside and I think that is easily Daric.  Even if he struggles, not going to be a huge step down from DJ.

Bring back Hammer.

by OaktownPower on Dec 17, 2006 2:36 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

In addition...
I think this is absolutely the most interesting story of the Spring.  Almost every other spot is set and the 4th OF and 5th SP battles dont fire me up too much.  The 1B issue is the only interesting Spring story I see....aside form what opens up with possible injuries....everything else should be set and ready to go.
Bring back Hammer.

by OaktownPower on Dec 17, 2006 2:42 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

we've still got a lot of off season left
i think before March arrives we'll see some kind of trade which changes things.
"The future's like, who cares?" ~Eric Chavez

by rebus on Dec 17, 2006 3:23 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Vote for Barton
Can Dan Johnson erase last season and recover his minor league title of "Player That Actually Can Hit The Ball More Than Once A Month"?
Doubt it.

Will Daric Barton be a better hitter than Dan Johnson?

I think so. He has much better plate discipline.

Will Daric Barton match the offensive production of Dan Johnson, and get an early start in the majors, an invaluable teaching lesson for a rookie poised to take over the position?

I think that he would on the offense, but won't get brought up early (or at all) next year.  Not because he's a pretty awful first basemen (DJ is as well), but because for some reason the A's think that "more AAA" is better for hitter development than facing the big league pitching.

Is it even possible for Daric Barton to be that much worse than Dan Johnson?  

After seeing both for their stints in AAA, I don't think so. DJ is terrible defensively, and Barton is not much better.  But DJ does not appear to be improving, whereas Barton might. If it were me, I'd give Barton the shot this year and not waste any more time with DJ.  

by catfan on Dec 17, 2006 5:13 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Terrible defense???
How is. 994 career fielding% considered terrible defence? Last year going into spring training Johnson was considered the superior defender to Swisher. Only when Ron Washington said that Swisher was more talented (i.e. potentially better but needs to work on it) Did it seem that Johnson was considered weak defensively even though the stats don't reflect such an opinion. I believe all this Barton talk is premature at best. On the A's own website it talks about how he is hitting. 324 avg. and. 447 obp in winter ball. But NO HOME RUNS and only 3 doubles. He is going to sit in the minors until he develops his power stroke and that is not something he can work on at the big league level. He must start hitting for some power in AAA before he gets the call up. If he can't hit doubles and home runs off AAA pitching he will be dead in the majors. He'll be just another Jason Kendal type Punch and Judy base hitter. He's only 21 and since the A's said as an organisation that they are big fans of D.J. I would take them at there word and not except Daric Barton until September or 2008 the earliest.
In England all A's fans are "Athletic Supporters"

by Athletics Fan In London on Dec 17, 2006 8:38 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Well said
I believe you are correct, sir. You win the award for Best Response To This Diary!

by Philip Christy on Dec 17, 2006 8:57 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

DJ
Unfortunately, the first thing that comes to mind when thinking about Dan Johnson is grounding out to second base. He had some eye trouble that explained some of his problem but until he eliminates grounding out to second base seemingly every other time at bat he's not going to be the man for the A's. But let's wish him well because he could really be a big boost for the A's, since Johnson AND Barton in the lineup hitting well in 2008-2011 would mean a good A's lineup.

by SA on Dec 17, 2006 6:09 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

If Barton
shows the same attitude and contempt for coaches as he did in this years ST he could be the one that gets traded.

BB still has the option of keeping Swish at first base and making either or both of them part of a trade to get another outfielder.

For my money a new guy in LF and Swish at first is at least as likely as DJ or DB making the final roster.

by galraen on Dec 17, 2006 10:02 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

interesting
any links or sources about Barton's 'tude? I hadn't heard that about him.
"The future's like, who cares?" ~Eric Chavez

by rebus on Dec 18, 2006 3:50 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

No links
I'm afraid, but is has been discussed on the 'official' forum in the pat. The input cmae from guys/gals who were at ST and have been generally reliable about such things.

Evidently he was of the opinion that defensive training was a waste of time, end effectively blew Ron Washington off. As a result (it's alledged) he was kicked out and sent to the minor league camp.

by galraen on Dec 18, 2006 6:40 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Check out this trade offer:
My #1a team is the Cincinnati Reds.  Check out this trade one of the bloggers came up with (and others subsequently thought the Reds would be getting robbed by the trade):

Reds trade: Adam Dunn, Kyle Lohse, Johnny Cueto

A's trade: Rich Harden, Mark Kotsay, Daric Barton, Connor Robertson

Wow.  The thing that makes this deal more lopsided is that if Dunn is traded, his 2nd year option is voided.  This would be a 1-year rental for Dunn.

"To me, boxing is like a ballet, except there's no music, no choreography, and the dancers hit each other." - Jack Handey

by JJ on Dec 18, 2006 10:07 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Spring training
I think Johnson gets to play first base for oakland at the begging of the year.

If johson can not hit and Daric is heating things up  in aaa then we will see.

Bean puts little weight in spring training

I am a sports writter.

by scottofchico on Dec 18, 2006 12:59 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

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